That's the opinion of Immanuel Wallerstein, senior research scholar at Yale.

Quote :

"It's over. For the U.S. to win the Iraq war requires three things: defeating the Iraqi resistance; establishing a stable government in Iraq that is friendly to the U.S.; maintaining the support of the American people while the first two are being done. None of these three seem any longer possible. First, the U.S. military itself no longer believes it can defeat the resistance. Secondly, the likelihood that the Iraqi politicians can agree on a constitution is almost nil, and therefore the likelihood of a minimally stable central government is almost nil. Thirdly, the U.S. public is turning against the war because it sees no "light at the end of the tunnel.""

Get the full story here:

http://fbc.binghamton.edu/167en.htm

So the question for the pro-war folks here is this: what basis do you have for believing that the war is going well enough to keep committing resources to it?

8/16/2005 1:28:03 PM

8/16/2005 1:36:43 PM

One response might be that the situation will only get much, much worse if we bring out our stabilizing influence -- and less face facts here, there isn't much other than a US military presence keeping things from degenerating into anarchy, theocracy, or dictatorship at the moment.

The more optimistic viewpoint is what I like to call, "Just because your little article says something doesn't mean its true." I think your definition of victory, first of all, is warped. I was never confident that we could "defeat" the Iraqi resistance in the normal sense, but I don't believe it's out of the question that we will beat them back to an acceptable level. Many countries have armed resistances small enough to be essentially negligible. When was the last time you heard from the Sendero Luminoso?

A constitution also does not seem so certainly unrealistic, but I must confess that I haven't followed that end of things as closely as I should lately, so I won't say much on it ATM.

As for the third part...I see Americans being upset with "the handling of the war," but I don't think there's terribly many who support a complete pull-out, which is really more of a fringe idea on the subject.

8/16/2005 5:23:43 PM

^

You miss the point of all this. No matter what, the US is pretty much stuck in Iraq, for the reasons you noted.

But, at least the people who didn't like Bush, and knew his scummy policies sucked, can say "I told you so" because they (we...) saw this coming. We knew he was an idiot, and his stuff about WMDs and terrorism in Iraq was BS, and a lot of us knew he was going to botch the regime change. We even speculated that it was for no end but to bolster him politically, and while this is less certain, considering our track record, we're probably right. Without Iraq, what does Bush have? He hasn't captured Bin Laden, oil prices are at record highs, the US dollar is relatively weak, the economic class disparities aren't better, the achievement gap is worse (I think...), the US has record high debts and a deficit, people live in fear of terrorism, stem cell research is being held back somewhat, and the country is more politically divided than it has been in recent history. So... I told you so.

8/16/2005 5:30:59 PM

Quote :

"defeating the Iraqi resistance"

with total elimination being more than likely out of the question, the ability to constrict and limit their power is essential, which must be done with both an Iraqi Military force as well as US Forces. It's important for the Iraqi military to eventually finish this task on their own, however, this is years away from being possible. Given that, I'd say that the resistance will be dealt with one step at a time. It's the longest process, and will be the last quagmire solved in this entire thing.

Quote :

" establishing a stable government in Iraq that is friendly to the U.S."

it will happen, it's currently in it's infant stages. While, granted there may be three seperate republics, I do believe that stability will happen in a matter of time, with the majority of the region being Allies with the US.

Quote :

"maintaining the support of the American people while the first two are being done"

majority support will remain. the extremist anti-war people, of course, will still have the loudest voice (look no further than the soapbox to prove that) but the majority of American's continue to support the effort, regardless of their feelings of the administration.

chicken-little is reaching here, the sky isn't falling just yet.

8/16/2005 5:41:27 PM

Quote :

"keeping things from degenerating into... theocracy"

Whats wrong with a theocracy?

8/16/2005 5:46:30 PM

"America is the great Satan, the wounded snake."

[Edited on August 16, 2005 at 6:09 PM. Reason : ]

8/16/2005 6:05:13 PM

Eh, the war seems like it worked to me. Sure, the terrorists can kill a lot of people, but the trick is that we can kill lots of them. Yes, good guys must worry about the terrorists blowing them up while they shop, but the terrorists must equally worry about vested men assaulting in the middle of night with night vision goggles.

Also, what makes you think American's are becoming ready to give up? Last I heard GWB won the election.

8/16/2005 8:03:03 PM

marko wins

all that was said about the south as well

8/16/2005 8:34:33 PM

Quote :

"Eh, the war seems like it worked to me. Sure, the terrorists can kill a lot of people, but the trick is that we can kill lots of them. Yes, good guys must worry about the terrorists blowing them up while they shop, but the terrorists must equally worry about vested men assaulting in the middle of night with night vision goggles. "

what do you mean? that doesn't sound like progress to me.

8/17/2005 12:48:28 AM

Little known is that resistance of the kind in Iraq was also persistent in post WWII Japan and Germany. While the press (and severity of each individual attack) was much less, your definition of beating the resistance wasn't achieved in Japan until more than a decade after the treaties had been signed. So give us a decade before you make such a stupid argument. (That's directed to the Yale bitch). Wars last a lot longer than people choose to realize. I admit, when Bush declared victory on the ship, that was also premature. It was a bad decision. So is the decision to say we CAN'T defeat something that we haven't been fighting for at least 5 years.

8/17/2005 1:46:26 PM

We are still in Kosovo, Japan, and Germany. I suspect we will be in Iraq for at least awhile longer.

8/17/2005 1:51:01 PM

Good point.

8/17/2005 1:51:24 PM

There was no organized insurgency in Japan. Most military historians look back at it as the ideal occupation. Their culture allowed them to accept defeat and bow to the American presence.

8/17/2005 2:00:05 PM

Quote :

"people live in fear of terrorism, stem cell research is being held back somewhat, and the country is more politically divided than it has been in recent history. So... I told you so"

You told us what? That you disagree with him? Yeah. We know. And this, "the country is more politically divided than ever" bullshit is just that. Ask someone who was around during the Vietnam War, especially someone who was in college in the Vietnam War, and see if they don't laugh right in your fucking face. OK, so now you'll say, "but I said 'recent memory,'" and I'll say that if thirty years ago doesn't count as recent by national standards, nothing does.

Some of you bitches might be whining and you might be protesting, but I don't see any of you secretly stockpiling weapons to overthrow the government. Shit, quit trying to put yourself on the same plane as the Black Panthers. Compared to the opposition back in the day you guys are pussycats.

Quote :

"We knew he was an idiot, and his stuff about WMDs and terrorism in Iraq was BS, and a lot of us knew he was going to botch the regime change."

He's demonstrably not an idiot (here's a clue: he's President!), I could have told you that the WMDs were bullshit, and the regime change ain't been botched yet. You seem to be overstating his control over that. I suppose he could exert more control, but then I'd be hearing "OMFPUPPETSTATE!" even more than I already have to put up with from you.

Quote :

"Without Iraq, what does Bush have? He hasn't captured Bin Laden, oil prices are at record highs, the US dollar is relatively weak, the economic class disparities aren't better, the achievement gap is worse"

1) You can't simultaneously claim that Bush went to Iraq to distract America from his inability to capture Osama and say that we would've captured Osama if we hadn't gone to Iraq. Maybe you've never said that, but now, if you do, I'm throwing a fit.

2) Because Bush runs OPEC. No really.

3) Shit happens.

4) So what, we're fucking commies now?

5) Proof, please.

8/17/2005 2:02:56 PM

somebody got up on the wrong side of bed this morning

8/17/2005 2:08:14 PM

Bad night last night, man.

8/17/2005 2:09:19 PM

oic

bad today too, with school starting and all

8/17/2005 2:16:23 PM

8/17/2005 2:33:40 PM

relevance?

8/17/2005 2:42:53 PM

Bush = t3h b4d

8/17/2005 3:10:22 PM

nah man, I only have tuesday/thursday classes

which in retrospect was poorly thought out on my part

8/17/2005 4:18:29 PM

Quote :

"relevance?"

Quote :

"2) Because Bush runs OPEC. No really."

8/18/2005 8:24:04 AM

And that is directly related to whether or not the war in in Iraq can be won because _________________.

8/18/2005 12:38:06 PM

[user]bgmins[/user]

Quote :

"Little known is that resistance of the kind in Iraq was also persistent in post WWII Japan and Germany. "

I would like to see some factual evidence that there was widespread resistence in Germany and Japan for nearly two years after the war.

And by resistence, I don't mean SS officers committing suicide.

8/19/2005 1:19:09 PM

There was some resistance in Germany, but it wasn't widespread by any means. It was mostly just Hitler Youth kids that couldn't believe that their side lost.

8/19/2005 1:25:09 PM

resistance in Japan?

even after their emperor WENT ON THE RADIO TO GIVE UP?

the emperor at that time was never seen nor heard from. .when that fucker rolled up in the studio to cry uncle, motherfuckers understood.

also, what could they resist? nuclear fallout?

^hell, there are still Hitler supporters who can't handle it. I don't think there was much physical resistance there, though.

[Edited on August 19, 2005 at 1:27 PM. Reason : eh]

8/19/2005 1:26:31 PM

IIRC, I think that the US suffered under 100 killed by insurgents after the war ended.

8/19/2005 1:52:47 PM

Quote :

"even after their emperor WENT ON THE RADIO TO GIVE UP? "

Well, there was actually almost a coup against the Emperor... didn't quite happen, though...

...I dunno. It'd be interesting to see numbers on a resistance in Japan...

8/19/2005 2:44:47 PM

After the Japanese surrender most of the really hard line military leaders that had planned the coup committed suicide, as well a lot of other higher ups in the military.

The people basically bowed down in defeat and accepted the occupation.

8/19/2005 2:50:18 PM

Quote :

"After the Japanese surrender most of the really hard line military leaders that had planned the coup committed suicide, as well a lot of other higher ups in the military. "

Yeah... it was reasonably close though.

8/19/2005 2:57:09 PM

Pryderi--

I could find you a montage of pictures showing Bush being friendly with almost any world leader on the planet. That kissing is a more common greeting in other countries in our own does not make Bush and Abdullah bedfellows. Are all those countries with whose leaders he is friendly our puppets? Are all the OPEC nations his puppets? Because last I checked Saudis didn't have dictatorial power over OPEC, either.

Bush does not run OPEC

[Edited on August 19, 2005 at 2:57 PM. Reason : ]

8/19/2005 2:57:11 PM

8/19/2005 2:59:00 PM

^^ The picture of him kissing is clearly fake.


You just defended a complete fabrication.

8/19/2005 3:23:16 PM

It wouldn't surprise me if there was a picture somewhere of them doing the greeting kiss or some other such nonsense.

That said, I have forever besmirched my family honor with my mistake.

8/19/2005 3:32:13 PM

Quote :

"You just defended a complete fabrication."

hahahahahah

someone photo shop bush aborting a fetus while sexing a gay dude so we can get his grand explanation of how it is "OK"

8/21/2005 10:50:46 AM