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ssjamind
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i think this thread is necessary. there's been scattered talk about housing, interest rates and mortgages in random threads.

in the spirit of this

Quote :
"your voice counts -- it all adds up, one way or another."


what do you all make of this?

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BF8B9E8DB%2D7503%2D4719%2D8378%2D0E6A5729C3C2%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

5/16/2006 7:28:06 PM

Skack
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I was at Hatteras last weekend and it looked like 15+% of the homes on the island were for sale. If you just got in and you're not out by now you're fucked. As dirty as this sounds...I wouldn't mind seeing it drop enough for me to get into a lot with plans to build later.

Raleigh, on the other hand, should steadily grow for years to come IMO. We have good job growth forecasts and we never had a big boom like a lot of other areas. I wouldn't be surprised if 2006 shows better real estate returns than 2005 in this area.

[Edited on May 16, 2006 at 8:53 PM. Reason : ;]

5/16/2006 8:50:20 PM

HaLo
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"they've" been waiting for the real estate market to bust for almost a year now.

5/16/2006 11:24:01 PM

ssjamind
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yeah, the overpricing hasn't peaked as vehemently in Raleigh, and its with a lag...so when the bubble bursts, it won't be as bad here i guess -- i hope

5/17/2006 12:22:41 AM

drtaylor
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ok, we're in almost the exact situation as the housing market was in 1989-1991

we have just finished up with a mild recession, there is uncertianty due to a conflict in the gulf, interest rates are stabalized after a large swing and the yield curve is strange, there has recently been a large run up in housing prices, people are starting to shift down market to lower price points, and last but not least there were lots of speculative reports by the media about how prices were going to collapase (and they did lose substantially in some areas) which wrecked consumer confidence and lowered the number of housing starts even in the nc market

having said that, national real estate trends mean almost nothing and i don't think traditional indicators give a clear picture of market direction in the current economic climate

luckily, we live in the most bubble-resistent market IN THE NATION, prices are slated to appreciate at a solid 6% over the next couple of years and i am aware of about 20,000 units slated for construction

additionally, we are so underpriced compared to the inflated markets that people are flocking here (the real estate term for them is half-backers)

basically, our market as a whole is solid for the next 5 years for sure

however, not all areas are created equal and you really have to drill down to the subdivision level to make good buying decisions - i made a bunch of money on my last house but it was in one of two areas in the entire triangle that saw any apprecation over the last three years. i was careful to pick an area slated for an upswing when i bought my new house and i think i've already gained about $25,000 from appreciation there and the thing isn't even finished being built yet.

people who bought in areas where prices were lower are now realizing WHY they were lower when they try and list at prices that are a good bit higher than what they bought it for - other than NW raleigh and cary you're pretty much looking at a break-even proposition if you've been in a house < 4 years

hope that helps sru

oh and holla if you want to get set up with my realtor team



[Edited on May 17, 2006 at 1:40 AM. Reason : gg]

5/17/2006 1:37:26 AM

drtaylor
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i feel like i have to address the comment about hatteras as well

so many properties are for sale because demand is so high

people are still buying homes on a speculative basis, waiting for the price to run up, and selling before it's finished being built, i know there are several people in that area doing it full-time, most of those homes are probably owned by a few people

if you own a house on water in NC you're straight money right now, granted i think that it's not sustainable, but the for sale signs you see now aren't the desperate kind

[Edited on May 17, 2006 at 2:04 AM. Reason : ff]

5/17/2006 1:48:04 AM

AlanM2388
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^^ & ^

You sir are correct.

I'm a beginner in the game, but my mom is in real estate in Wilmington. Basically, everything you just said is what I"ve been hearing from her for the last 2-3 years.

That being said, I just bought a house off Trawick in one of the subdivisions I hope you were speaking of. I was also careful with my research, looking for locations that were close to major hot spots (downtown, mall, etc) and inside areas of new infastructure (I 540 belt).

I do worry sometimes because I see all the new projects and units going in both downtown and in outer portions of the county. With that being said, I've read all the major publications calling Raleigh one of the best markets in the nation for business growth and investment, along with the triangle being the most "bubble-resistent" in the nation.

[Edited on May 17, 2006 at 2:05 AM. Reason : ]

5/17/2006 2:04:57 AM

Skack
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Quote :
"other than NW raleigh and cary you're pretty much looking at a break-even proposition if you've been in a house < 4 years"


Can you explain why "inside the beltline" or at least some of the inside the beltline neighborhoods are not included? I believe Anderson Heights, Mordecai, Oakwood, Boylan Heights, and 5 Points have had tremendous growth over the last 4 years. The News & Observer reported ~6% increase for areas east of downtown a few months ago. I would have also expected a notable increase in value for the areas close to the beltline in West Raleigh as well.


Quote :
"i feel like i have to address the comment about hatteras as well

so many properties are for sale because demand is so high

people are still buying homes on a speculative basis, waiting for the price to run up, and selling before it's finished being built, i know there are several people in that area doing it full-time, most of those homes are probably owned by a few people"


I disagree, but I guess we'll have to wait to see what happens this summer. I think a lot of people see this as the peak of real estate values and are trying to get out while they can. As with any investment, if you wait until everyone else decides to get out you're probably too late.

I don't expect to see a sharp drop in property values, but I wouldn't be surprised if things are flat for a long time to come while the less dedicated investors gtfo.

5/17/2006 4:25:45 AM

wolftrap
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the fact that college kids are talking about real estate assures me the end is near

5/17/2006 8:04:06 AM

drtaylor
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Quote :
"Can you explain why "inside the beltline" or at least some of the inside the beltline neighborhoods are not included?"


inside the beltline is kind of it's own market and it only knows how to go up, it's not very interesting to talk about

5/17/2006 8:06:05 AM

ncsuapex
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MSN's take on the Raleigh market


http://realestate.msn.com/buying/Articlebankrate.aspx?cp-documentid=421682>1=8012


Raleigh, N.C.: This city is right in the middle of the region that appeals to what real estate market consultant Schleimer calls the "halfbacks." Those are people from northern states who moved to Florida, didn't like it and then moved back, but only halfway. The halfback region includes Georgia, the Carolinas, parts of Mississippi and Tennessee. The seasons are more like what they were used to up North, without the harsh winters, and they're closer to friends and family. John Burns Housing Cycle Barometer has Raleigh dead last on its list of markets that are susceptible to a housing bubble, and the NAR shows a healthy appreciation of 7.4% between 2004 and 2005. The median house price of $185,200 is well below the national average of $213,000, giving it nice room to grow. Fortune predicts the region will do just that, by about 5% per year over the next two years.



Halfbacks?? hahaha and what about the wet... well nevermind.. hhahaha

5/17/2006 8:33:24 AM

Skack
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Quote :
"the fact that college kids are talking about real estate assures me the end is near"


Neither myself, nor drtaylor, are in college unless he's back for a graduate degree.


Quote :
"inside the beltline is kind of it's own market and it only knows how to go up, it's not very interesting to talk about"


Sweet

5/17/2006 9:47:33 AM

ncsuapex
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speaking of beltlines... I live out in the county, considered Apex, but its county. I don't pay city taxes. Anyways.. There is talk that the outer-outer loop will come right through our subdivision. So is that good or bad for house prices?? I mean.. I would think it would piss most ppl off considering they moved out here to get away from all that crap. But all the realtors I've talked to said it would drive prices up to have that thing so close.. And that RTP'ers would want to live out here yet have access to the highway and that's a good thing...

5/17/2006 9:52:19 AM

Skack
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It will drive prices up for the area as a whole. You might have trouble selling if it literally runs through your backyard, but other than that it should be a good thing.

You're probably 15-25 years out from the outer loop being completed though, so you're going to have to hold that property for a while.

[Edited on May 17, 2006 at 10:19 AM. Reason : s]

5/17/2006 10:16:11 AM

wolftrap
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welcome to Atlanta

5/17/2006 10:42:56 AM

BobbyDigital
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Quote :
" i made a bunch of money on my last house but it was in one of two areas in the entire triangle that saw any apprecation over the last three years."


I live next door to his 'old' house, and i'll also see about a 25% appreciation or so when I sell.

5/17/2006 10:58:24 AM

hcnguyen
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knightdale is on the virge of a HUGE boom. with the new 64 bypass completed last summer and the 540 almost done the town will be looped by highways. major developers are really focusing in now. midway plantation is almost complete and wakefield group is about to start on a crossroads type shopping center.

http://www.easternwakenews.com/news/v-export_as_template/story/2824918p-9274031c.html

the town set a steep price floor on new homes so very expensive homes are going up all over the place. in the last year several developments with 400k+ homes have sprouted up very quickly.

5/17/2006 12:41:18 PM

drtaylor
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Quote :
"There is talk that the outer-outer loop will come right through our subdivision. So is that good or bad for house prices??"


you're dead on, i wouldn't mention that there's any kind of major road coming anywhere near the place - there are neighborhoods in cary where 540 won't be for another 15 years and people won't build on the lots that will back onto it woth a wall and 100 foot buffer

5/17/2006 12:43:36 PM

ncsuapex
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^

I was told shortly after I bought my house that it's a law that the realtor HAS to divulge to a prospecting home owner if any major roads are coming through their area.... I'm not too concerned as I'm remolding it anyways and not in any position to sell it. But just curious if I should bail out now before it gets official or hold on and see if the prices go up...

5/17/2006 1:11:42 PM

Str8BacardiL
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Yes, It is extremely unethical and illegal to not disclose a material fact about a property you are selling. Realtors are boung by law to communicate anything directly effecting the property that a potential buyer would want to know. You should be able to find out exactly where it is proposed to go by calling the Town of Apex or the DOT.

5/17/2006 1:16:17 PM

jdman
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Quote :
"they've" been waiting for the real estate market to bust for almost a year now.
"


its already cooled off in S. California and the northeast

5/17/2006 1:25:35 PM

ncsuapex
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^^

I've checked with the DOT and there are no "official" records of where it's going in my area as it depends on where it is now and where they can buy land, they said they won't know till they actually buy the rights in that area. But I have seen DOT crews in the neighborhood marking roads and surveying...

5/17/2006 1:33:35 PM

Skack
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^^ You left off Miami b!

[Edited on May 17, 2006 at 1:35 PM. Reason : ^^]

5/17/2006 1:35:24 PM

ImYoPusha
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omg every1 knows everything about teh r34l 3st4tes!!!

5/17/2006 1:45:58 PM

BobbyDigital
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^^ and NoVA, and all of the major hotspots of the real estate bubble. It's most definitely busting right now.

As said before, we won't see any ripple effects in the triangle.

[Edited on May 17, 2006 at 1:48 PM. Reason : ag]

5/17/2006 1:47:49 PM

TKE-Teg
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Quote :
"its already cooled off in S. California and the northeast"


Not in the Tri-State area man

5/17/2006 1:55:30 PM

Jax883
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Quote :
"I was at Hatteras last weekend and it looked like 15+% of the homes on the island were for sale."


[quote]so many properties are for sale because demand is so high[/quote

The OBX market is still forecasted to grow because its a different kind of real estate market. Its investment property more than residential. The real downside to that is its a btich to find affordable housing out here

5/17/2006 4:03:37 PM

State409c
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Quote :
"however, not all areas are created equal and you really have to drill down to the subdivision level to make good buying decisions - i made a bunch of money on my last house but it was in one of two areas in the entire triangle that saw any apprecation over the last three years. i was careful to pick an area slated for an upswing when i bought my new house and i think i've already gained about $25,000 from appreciation there and the thing isn't even finished being built yet."


Which 'hoods?

5/18/2006 11:57:37 AM

ssjamind
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bttt

5/23/2006 5:05:04 PM

Skack
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Quote :
"Beach housing no longer sizzles; market fizzles"


http://www.newsobserver.com/689/story/456911.html

Who still feels confident in coastal real estate?

7/5/2006 1:10:12 PM

BigDave41
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i have a house buying/renting question that i would appreciate input on...

i'm thinking about buying a house in trailwood hills in 8-10 months for around 180k, i would then live there (probably with a couple of roommates) for 4-6 years...buy another house somewhere else and keep the trailwood hills house and turn it into a rental property.

i figured a house in that area would be good because it seems like there is high demand for college students to rent houses and all those that go up for rent, seem to get rented pretty quickly.

also...i think i'm gonna go for a 15 year mortgage.

anyone see any faults in this plan?

7/5/2006 1:33:46 PM

1CYPHER
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If you are going to go the rental route, be prepared to aggressively screen your rentees so they don't tear your shit up. I'm sure others will reign in here, but I feel like this isn't going to be as cut and dried as you just made it out to be.

7/5/2006 1:39:01 PM

Natalie0628
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I heard on the radio a few months ago that a lot of celebrities were buying houses in Raleigh-Durham as investments. Al Pacino and Charlize Thereon were thrown around, but I don't know how true this is.

7/5/2006 1:41:29 PM

ncsuapex
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Quote :
"anyone see any faults in this plan?"


yea.. renting to college students...


Just make sure the rent is high enough that you can pay for all the fucked up stuff when they move out.

7/5/2006 1:41:45 PM

BigDave41
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^,^^^...yeah, i'm definitely going to be particular about who i rent to. and i realize it may not be as cut and dried as i originally posted...which is why i sought the input of others. thanks and continued advice is appreciated.

7/5/2006 1:43:25 PM

Skack
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I think it is a good plan as long as you don't mind managing the property/tenants yourself. That means making arrangements with a good friend/associate that you can trust to be your backup when you are out of town. I have very little faith in rental agencies.

That area has grown pretty well. I've been looking at houses there for years and there has been a pretty steady rise, although I don't know the actual percent increase. Just get to know the property values in the area and make sure you're getting in at a fair price. It also seems to be much more tolerant of rentals than other neighborhoods in the area (Avent West.)

The 15 year mortgage is a personal choice, but I don't see much point in it. Mortgage rates have been going up steadily, but they are still pretty low by most standards. You might want to consider a 30 year fixed for stronger financing power on your next home/investment. Re-financing to a 30 year will be a big waste of money, so make sure you're in the right financing from the start.

Quote :
"If you are going to go the rental route, be prepared to aggressively screen your rentees so they don't tear your shit up. I'm sure others will reign in here, but I feel like this isn't going to be as cut and dried as you just made it out to be."


There is very little that you can do that wouldn't be considered "discrimination" and in violation of the Fair Housing Act. I believe you can get by with credit checks and a minimum credit rating to cut out some of the undesirables, but you'd want to check with a lawyer on that. Also, putting in a no-smoking and no-pets clause will help protect the property and keep a lot of people out.

It's crucial to be careful about where the property is advertised. And, trust me, a rental company does not give a fuck about who they put in your house.



[Edited on July 5, 2006 at 1:56 PM. Reason : s]

7/5/2006 1:46:51 PM

ssjamind
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http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/59vqBBkGjpKrzkj8Bml123F?siteid=mktw&dist=TNMostRead

7/5/2006 5:00:20 PM

BobbleHead
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I am in the industry....weird time for us right now.

7/5/2006 5:20:57 PM

dansr12
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^yep.

7/5/2006 5:27:49 PM

Skack
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What is so weird about it?

7/5/2006 5:44:49 PM

1CYPHER
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http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2006/07/interest_only_m.html

7/17/2006 5:11:15 PM

BobbleHead
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The weird thing right now is that some aspects are booming, If I could i'd disclose how many warehouse spaces i've leased, and industrial properties i've sold. Investment Properties are also big right now, residential is seeing a LOT of foreclosure...but the sales are on the rise, the market is just really sketchy and unpredictable.

7/17/2006 5:16:13 PM

1CYPHER
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Does anyone know of a site or place of consolidated information for looking into trends. That is, the information is out there in regards to home prices and things, but in a brief googling I did, I couldn't really find any decent site that could give me a breakdown of prices in a given area over time.

7/17/2006 5:18:48 PM

ImYoPusha
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its all public info. every county has a site to check for tax records which should also give you a list of recents sales in the area.

also, and i know its probably been said 12312312 times but zillow, google earth, and the afforementioned county websites used together = your best friend.

7/17/2006 6:36:03 PM

1CYPHER
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hjkhj

[Edited on July 17, 2006 at 7:39 PM. Reason : hjk]

7/17/2006 7:29:46 PM

theDuke866
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any predictions on what the housing market will look like in about 2 years in and around Morehead City and New Bern?

7/17/2006 8:56:01 PM

BoobsR_gr8
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whats a good site for looking at houses that gives all the details, most are like "call agent"

7/18/2006 12:51:23 AM

BunkerBuster
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http://www.realtor.com

7/18/2006 12:53:50 AM

jnpaul
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they arent making anymore water front property ^^^
so i'm sure the values will continue to rise as the demand rises

[Edited on July 18, 2006 at 1:09 AM. Reason : ]

7/18/2006 1:09:25 AM

BobbleHead
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Any agent that links to an MLS site will give you all of the details. I suggest using Ida Terbet's website: http://www.idaterbet.com/ She is irritating, but her website allows you free access to MLS. I only have access to the commercial sites like that, so I always search through an agent that allows you to use theirs.

7/18/2006 10:14:50 AM

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