there's some insider article on espn for this. can anybody post it?

it's on the NFL section main page right now

8/8/2006 9:51:09 PM

Quote :

"Roethlisberger among worst decision makers Insider Joyner By KC Joyner ESPN Insider Archive Editor's note: This is an expanded version of a passage that appears in Scientific Football 2006. I track more than 100 metrics in every NFL game, but the most misunderstood and controversial of these has to be the bad decision metric for quarterbacks. The bad decision metric is the method I use to track a quarterback's mistakes. Simply put, if the quarterback makes a decision with the ball that either could have led or did lead to a turnover, he is debited with a bad decision on the play. The most common types of bad decisions are: 1. Forcing a pass into coverage 2. Staring at a receiver 3. Throwing the ball despite being tackled 4. Misreading a zone defense and not seeing a defender in the passing lane. On each of these types of plays, the quarterback is noted as having made a bad decision. There are game situations that can force a quarterback to throw the ball into coverage (e.g., on fourth-and-30, Hail Mary plays, etc.) that will not be ruled as bad decisions. If the quarterback's mistake did not lead to a turnover (e.g., a dropped interception, a recovered fumble, etc.), the mistake is given only one bad decision point. If the mistake led to a turnover, however, it is given two mistake points and also is subject to a graduating scale of points based on how damaging the turnover was (e.g., an additional point for an interception killing a scoring drive, another additional point if the interception led to the opponent's being set up in scoring position, etc.). The scale has an upper limit of five points for any single bad decision. Scientific Football Scientific Football 2006 can be ordered now from KC Joyner's website. Bad decision rankings are based on two percentage bases. The first is the standard bad decision percentage. To calculate this, I take the number of bad decisions a quarterback generated and divide it by the total number of attempts. The second percentage rating is the weighted bad decision percentage. This is calculated by taking the number of bad decision points and dividing it by the total number of attempts. So, which quarterbacks were the best and worst decision makers in the NFL in 2005 according to Scientific Football 2006? At the bottom, I'll list the top five and bottom five in each category. But first, I'll analyze some of the more interesting QBs and where they fell as good or bad decision makers. Good decision makers: • Tom Brady: The best decision maker in 2005 was Tom Brady, and it wasn't even a close race. Brady made only four bad decisions in 549 attempts, which equates to a ridiculously low 0.7 percent bad decision percentage. No other quarterback came close to falling under the 1 percent mark in that category. Brady also had only nine bad decision points, and his 1.6 percent weighted bad decision percentage was also easily the best. • Drew Bledsoe: The perception of Bledsoe is that he makes a lot of mistakes, but the metrics tell a different story. Bledsoe did rank next to last in the NFL for most interceptions thrown last year (17), but he had just 10 bad decisions. His 1.9 percent bad decision rate was the fourth best in the league, and he was only 0.2 percentage points behind Peyton Manning in that category. Bledsoe did have 21 bad decision points (tied for 28th worst in that category), but his high number of pass attempts meant his weighted bad decision percentage barely missed making the top 10. • Byron Leftwich: Leftwich often is lauded for a number of his positive traits but his good decision making isn't normally one of them. It should be, as Leftwich ranked in the top seven in both bad decision and weighted bad decision percentage. That he did this despite throwing the second-highest percentage of deep passes (nearly 20 percent of his pass attempts were deep) is a testament to his ability to be aggressive while simultaneously protecting the ball. Bad decision makers: • Aaron Brooks: Brooks had a number of problems last year, but his biggest by far was his decision making. His 4.9 percent bad decision percentage was the fifth worst in the NFL, and his weighted bad decision percentage was almost into double digits (9.8 percent). Those percentages were nearly twice as high as his 2004 totals, so he is certainly capable of performing better. • Matt Hasselbeck: Hasselbeck had a fantastic season last year almost across the board, but his 17 bad decisions and 26 bad decision points were both tied for the seventh-highest total in their respective categories. The West Coast offense operated by the Seahawks is not a high-risk offense, and that makes Hasselbeck's performance in this metric a bit more perplexing. • Brett Favre: It should come as no surprise that Favre had the highest number of bad decisions and bad decision points in 2005. To put his 53 bad decision points into perspective, one could add the totals of nearly any two other quarterbacks in the NFL last year and they still wouldn't surpass Favre's total. Favre's saving grace from a percentage perspective was his extremely high number of pass attempts (he was the only quarterback to top 600 attempts in 2005), but he still ranked in the bottom 10 in both bad decision percentage categories. Green Bay will need a dramatic improvement from Favre in this aspect of his game if the Packers want to be competitive in 2006. • Ben Roethlisberger: Big Ben's 2005 season provides proof that you can win despite having high bad decision percentages. Roethlisberger ranked dead last in the bad decision percentage category and had the fifth-highest weighted bad decision percentage. He was able to get away with those elevated percentages because he had by far the highest yards per pass attempt in 2005 (9.1 yards, the only QB to top the 9-yard mark). If the YPA number drops at all in 2006, Roethlisberger's bad decision percentages will need to show improvement. Here are the top and bottom five in each percentage category: Bad decision/mistake %: Top and bottom five Rank Player Team Bad decision/Mistake % 1. Tom Brady Patriots 0.7 2. David Carr Texans 1.6 3. Peyton Manning Colts 1.7 4. Drew Bledsoe Cowboys 1.9 5. Jake Plummer Broncos 2.1 38. Aaron Brooks Saints (on Raiders now) 4.9 39. David Garrard Jaguars 5.1 40. J.P. Losman Bills 5.9 41. Jamie Martin Rams 5.9 42. Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 6.5 Weighted bad decision/mistake %: Top and bottom five Rank Player Team Weighted bad decision/ mistake % 1. Tom Brady Patriots 1.6 2. David Carr Texans 2.3 3 Jake Plummer Broncos 3.2 4. Byron Leftwich Jaguars 3.2 5. Peyton Manning Colts 3.4 38. Ben Roethlisberger Steelers 9.4 39. Daunte Culpepper Vikings 9.7 40. Jake Delhomme Panthers 9.7 41. Aaron Brooks Saints (on Raiders now) 9.8 42. Brian Griese Bucs (on Bears now) 9.9 KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. His latest book, Scientific Football 2006, is available for order at his Web site, http://thefootballscientist.com. Here's a 37-page sample of the new book."

8/8/2006 11:31:33 PM

i immediately disregarded the rest of the article when they noted Ben Roethlisberger, the super bowl champion QB, as the worst decision maker.

8/8/2006 11:50:46 PM

it seems like a pretty accurate list, but it doesn't really say too much about the effectiveness of the quarterback.

Delhomme does make some dumb decisions though.

8/8/2006 11:54:01 PM

they are right about delhomme. He doesn't care about shit when throwing the ball. Helps that he has steve smith on the other end.

8/9/2006 12:00:01 AM

yeah i was thinkin it meant roethlisberger was a good decision maker.

i mean, yeah he does some of those things a lot, but it works for him. he gets completions when throwing into coverage. he can shovel pass it to someone in the backfield as he's being tackled and get away with it. he just has instincts like that. favre in past years is another person i would say that about, however in the past several years you can see where it has hurt him.

perhaps several years from now when ben is an aged veteran, he won't be able to get away with these things anymore, either. but right now, i'd say he's just fine. keep doing what you're doing, ben.

8/9/2006 12:07:02 AM

Honestly, not to try and argue any points here, good or bad, but trying to equate being a Superbowl champion with being a good quarterback is not too bright.

Trent Dilfur won a Superbowl, and he is quite horrible. While Ben Roethlisberger may or may not be a good or great quarterback, he did not have a good Superbowl, and any attempt to rank his greatness based on that Superbowl is just dumb.

8/9/2006 12:09:03 AM

Where on that list do the superbowl refs rank?

8/9/2006 12:18:53 AM

^^you are definitely right about him having a bad super bowl, but they never would have made it that far if not for the several great performances ben had in the games leading up to the super bowl.

(thanks to roberta for posting it btw)

[Edited on August 9, 2006 at 12:23 AM. Reason : ]

8/9/2006 12:21:24 AM

so out of the 'final four' last year...ie Colts, Steelers, Seahawks, Panthers....THREE of those teams had bad decision makers including the two teams that made it to the Superbowl...rofl

8/9/2006 9:36:45 AM

david garrard reppin

8/9/2006 4:13:25 PM

Aaron Brooks.




Delhomo.

8/9/2006 4:14:55 PM

^^and that's another thing. i think the jags are better with garrard than they are with leftwich.

8/9/2006 4:20:57 PM

Big Ben obviously didn't make a good decision to not wear a helment.

8/9/2006 4:23:05 PM

FTW lol

8/9/2006 4:24:04 PM

you cant be a pussy playing quarterback, roethlisberger made some plays happen by being ballsy, this doesnt mean anything.

8/9/2006 4:35:22 PM

<3 garrard

8/9/2006 4:41:33 PM

Throwing away the ball while being hit often isn't a bad decision.

8/9/2006 5:00:08 PM

Quote :

"i immediately disregarded the rest of the article when they noted Ben Roethlisberger, the super bowl champion QB, as the worst decision maker."

This article wasn't meant for people like you

8/9/2006 7:01:47 PM

Quote :

"The most common types of bad Jay Davis type decisions are: 1. Forcing a pass into any coverage 2. Staring at a receiver the linesman as he's coming full steam at you 3. Throwing the ball despite being tackled Allowing yourself to be tackled despite attempting to throw the ball 4. Misreading a zone defense and not seeing a defender in the passing lane."

8/9/2006 8:09:55 PM

People have to realize that decision making doesn't automatically make or break a QB, it is just a good attribute to have. It's like speed, arm strength, accuracy, release speed, or elusiveness, just because you have a lot of one doesn't make you good, and just because you may be lacking in one doesn't make you bad.

8/9/2006 8:35:40 PM

Bad decision making skills are the trademark of Pittsburgh Steelers quarterbacks. Terry Bradshaw could quite possibly be the dumbest man to ever win a Super Bowl ring.

8/9/2006 9:16:03 PM

^well he won 4 of them, so he must have been doing something right. also, he's the one that was adamantly against ben riding the motorcycle and spoke out about it a lot. ben may be the dumber of the two, it seems.

^^^and i thought you were the one that was all up on jay's nuts. unless i'm just completely misunderstanding your post, it would seem as if you have done a complete 180 and are now bashing your beloved quarterback. what gives?

8/9/2006 10:12:16 PM

garrard havin a good night so far:
http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/live/NFL_20060812_JAC@MIA

6/11 172 yds 2 TD 0 INT

compared with leftwich:
6/12 100 yds 1 TD 1 INT

8/12/2006 10:13:08 PM