and alliteration extravaganza!

Actually, this is just a consolidation of the following threads:
/message_topic.aspx?topic=508592
/message_topic.aspx?topic=509289
/message_topic.aspx?topic=504731

Starting with last night's victory by Mitt Romney in Michigan by a respectable margin over John McCain, among the Republicans we now have 3 winners in the first for contests (including the Wyoming cacus) with no clear momentum being built by any of the three major candidates and the increasingly rapid retreat of Giuliani from the contest.

With South Carolina on Tuesday, Huckabee is the obvious choice for the social conservative crowd, McCain has never faired well there, and Romney goes in with the disadvantage of being a slick Mormon Yankee. I'll go ahead and predict SC for the Huck, but I think the real test will be who takes 2nd since the Huckster's appeal will be limited to the Bible Belt.

1/16/2008 10:31:05 AM

Interestingly enough, McCain is leading over Huck by 6 points right now (29-23), and Romney with 13. The poll was actually conducted after Romney's Michigan win.

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSN1640188020080116

I'm hoping that Huckabee doesn't take the SC race, but it will be between McCain and him, with Romney coming in a distant third.

It's probably going to take til February 5th, if not longer, for the Republicans.

1/16/2008 10:45:11 AM

Thats a little surprising. He unquestionably lost some votes in SC over the Confederate flag issue back on 2000, but it has been eight years, so I don't see that hindering him again.

You've got three distinct candidates on the Republican side appealing to three very distinct demographics. I don't think it'll be over soon.

1/16/2008 10:59:57 AM

Sidenote..the guy behind Romney looks really really creepy....

1/16/2008 11:21:14 AM

^
He can see dead people.

He lets Mitt know who doesn't need a handshake any more.

1/16/2008 7:54:42 PM

Nah, it's probably just one of the rapists Huckabee pardoned.

1/17/2008 12:14:41 AM

The democrats are officially retarded.

1/19/2008 5:09:05 PM

Huckabee is a douche (another George Bush). Please don't put another retard bible thumper in the white house k thx

1/19/2008 5:24:34 PM

1/19/2008 5:58:14 PM

Thompson's gonna speak in about 5 minutes. 99% chance of dropping out.

Also, despite losing the popular vote, Obama's won NV in terms of the number of delegates. This system is retarded.

1/19/2008 7:54:49 PM

be HEALED

1/19/2008 7:58:57 PM

^ha!

1/19/2008 8:24:39 PM

bbc news, what gives?

headline:

McCain wins South Carolina vote
John McCain is projected to win a close Republican vote in South Carolina, after Hillary Clinton won in Nevada.

you know, don't say who won for the other party in the respective states.

1/19/2008 10:33:31 PM

kucinich got 5 votes

1/19/2008 11:01:57 PM

While I was gone Obama stomped Hillary in SC . . . now Florida is up with Gov Charlie Crist (who moonlights as a George Hamilton double) has now endorsed McCain. I don't think a McCain victory will guarantee a McCain candidacy any more than SC has guaranteed Obama, but the momentum is shifting in a more definitive manner.

1/29/2008 12:00:52 PM

i think it'll come down to the convention for both parties, which will kind of screw my job over, but should amount to an incredibly exciting convention. haven't had one of those in a long time.

1/29/2008 1:38:58 PM

^^ I agree that SC doesn't guarantee anything for Obama. I don't even know that it makes him the frontrunner--my gut reaction is that Clinton is still the one to beat, although I'll admit that I haven't followed the Democratic race as closely (I'm not going to vote for any of them, and Obama/Clinton are so close in terms of policy that one is about as bad as the other, as far as I can tell).


I think that McCain holds a slight edge as the GOP frontrunner, but I think that if he wins FL, he might have the GOP nod all but sewn up. Everyone else besides Romney is already basically out of contention, and headed towards being a group of no-factors. McCain already leads in the national polls, and holds commanding leads in the polls in CA and NY, who vote on Super Tuesday. I think that if he wins FL, it should tee up the death blow on 5 Feb.

If Romney wins, I suppose he gains a slight edge, and then we're in for a real contest.

1/29/2008 2:37:12 PM

I think the Democrats are more likely to go to the wire than the Republicans, but I could be wrong. If that happens, the Republicans will have a sizeable advantage going into the general election.

That being said, it speaks to the weakness of the Democratic field that none of their candidates are sure-things given the Republican party's abysmal reputation at this point.

1/29/2008 2:49:43 PM

Quote :

"it speaks to the weakness of the Democratic field that none of their candidates are sure-things"

I don't think that it speaks as them being weak, but rather undecided between two relatively strong (in their own rights) candidates. We're not choosing between the lesser of two (or four in the republicans case) evils.

I think the democrats are divided on who they want to support, but that that doesnt necessarily mean that they're weak. I can see the democrats uniting behind one candidate once its decided. But I can't see the Republicans all being able to support one candidate easily.

1/29/2008 2:57:26 PM

I don't consider RP an "evil" . . . just unelectable nationally.


And I disagree, I think there is a debate between the disliked but experienced politician and the charismatic, but green upstart. I don't think Obama is viewed as an "evil" by the Democrats, but I know they wonder about his electability / leadership. There are more than a few Democrats who will hold their nose and vote for HRC.

1/29/2008 3:03:57 PM

four = Romney, McCain, Guilliani and Huckabee.... so you can have your RP

1/29/2008 3:41:55 PM

touche

1/29/2008 3:44:35 PM

Looks like Giuliani is out of the race, no big surprise there, McCain & Romney are in a dead heat with Mac running about a 2 point lead.

1/29/2008 8:33:32 PM

he probably won't drop out though...he'll hold out til super tuesday i bet

1/29/2008 10:05:49 PM

I cannot wait to hear what Clinton has to say about her "win". Maybe she'll talk about why she didn't talk about her SC loss.

McCain wins. I think Duke is right when he says that this sets up a great death blow chance in Super Tuesday.
However it depends on how much $ he can bring in on this victory. Romney can go what $30 million plus into his own pockets?

Huckabee should help McCain out here in the south. But what if he wins more delegates than Romney? VP nod?

1/29/2008 10:28:43 PM

Hell no. I get the impression that McCain doesn't like Romney at all.

If you'll notice, Huckabee has refrained from attacking McCain (and in many cases, has actively cozied up to him). I have to wonder if maybe there's a deal going on between those two camps to keep Huckabee in the race until McCain can dispatch Romney, in exchange for Huckabee being the VP?

1/30/2008 2:51:19 AM

huckabee is a douchebag

1/30/2008 3:20:02 AM

Quote :

"I get the impression that McCain doesn't like Romney at all."

agreed. Romney comes across as massively self-serving, as evidenced by his comment about his son's "service", and his utter willingness to take any position that is politically conveninent. That kind of personality isn't going to sit well with a man who has a background like McCain.

1/30/2008 11:08:57 AM

Romney was a total asshole last night during his speech to Guiliani. Yes, Guiliani was an idiot with how he played things, but Romney just went over the line.

He's the epitome of a slummy politician.

1/30/2008 11:10:36 AM

Quote :

"Hell no. I get the impression that McCain doesn't like Romney at all. "

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA7JTDjG-Po

May want to rethink that one...

1/30/2008 11:19:48 AM

I will give Romney his due

he probably made the best showing at the GOP debate tonight


and Huckabee continues to play reaaallly nice with McCain...keeps me wondering about an alliance between them to defeat Romney and/or a potential VP slot for Huckabee.

1/31/2008 2:40:28 AM

if mccain picks huckabee i'm not voting mccain

1/31/2008 2:42:30 AM

ehh, at the end of the day, he's still the VP


man, it's no secret that i'm a McCain fan, and in general not a big Romney supporter...but I'm getting tired of watching McCain shit on Romney and relentlessly toot his own horn. (i'm watching the GOP debates, recorded from earlier)


of course, Romney saying stuff like "one of my greatest regrets in life is that i never served in military" just doesn't sit well with me...maybe i'm overly cynical (particularly of him), but I just don't buy it.


I'm glad Ron Paul is still in the race (at least nominally) and getting a little more of a pulpit to preaech from, although I wish he wouldn't tie every last damn answer he gives to Iraq.

[Edited on January 31, 2008 at 2:56 AM. Reason : wow, McCain saying "I'm a federalist", and Huckabee saying we need to respect the 10th Amendment!]

1/31/2008 2:47:02 AM

idk that whole not believing in evolution thing just bugs the piss out of me...

1/31/2008 2:49:13 AM

I'm no expert on everything he's said on the subject, but I'm satisfied with the answers he gave about it on Bill Maher's show (and even Maher seemed to have a sort of respect for him).

regardless, i have other issues with him regarding actual policy that are MUCH bigger deals to me.

1/31/2008 3:00:22 AM

my prediction at the moment:

McCain/Huckabee vs Clinton/?????

winner of that too close to call, although i will give an edge to McCain

2/2/2008 2:40:46 AM

I don't think Huckabee jumps on with McCain, I mean, it would make sense, but I don't think he does it.

If it's Clinton, I could see Easley potentially. She needs a southern Governor or Southwest Governor.
Someone low-profile that wouldn't, God forbid, take the attention off her.

2/2/2008 11:37:41 AM

Obama has had amazing momentum in the polls in the past ten days. He is doing incredibly well in some key states (California, especially), and is looking like he has a serious chance at beating Clinton come Tuesday. Please oh please, eighteen to twenty-five year olds, get off your asses and get to the polls.

2/3/2008 2:10:41 PM

Obama / clinton = win

Clinton / Obama = lose

2/3/2008 2:24:59 PM

Obama's made $7.6 million (so far) since the polls closed on Tuesday.

2/7/2008 4:11:38 PM

and hillary loaned her campaign $5 million.....

2/7/2008 4:15:02 PM

Shelby Steele did a really interesting speech at the California Commonwealth Club about the masks blacks wear in modern society. He broke it down into two rough groups; bargainers and challengers. Without going into too much detail, challengers would be guys like Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, while bargainers would be the Oprah Winfrey's and the Barak Obamas.

Its worth listening to.

Either way, Obama's candidacy is essentially built on the willingness of white Americans to fall all over themselves to prove that they are not racist. His "bargain" with them is essentially, "you vote for me, and I won't make you feel uncomfortable about how black America views you." I mean, its really not any different from any other candidate's shallow appeal to the voters, but he is the first black candidate to make it work on a large scale and without anything else to back himself up.

2/7/2008 5:32:20 PM

Quote :

"Obama's candidacy is essentially built on the willingness of white Americans to fall all over themselves to prove that they are not racist."

I completely disagree with that statement. I think that there is something that a lot of Americans see in Barack Obama that is somewhat inspiring and uplifting. Even if he's a huge bag of wind (which is kind of what I think about him) he still inspires something in people that hasn't been seen in a long time. And he's also hugely popular with college students, where I don't see the racial issue come into play.

2/7/2008 6:18:15 PM

The American left is so hyper-obsessed with race, that a large number of people see him as something of a redemption. I don't think they consciously view it in those terms, but that is a huge part of his mystique.

He essentially only appeals on two levels; as a master orator promoting an inanely nebulous concept of "change" and as the opportunity to elect the first black president of the United States. If he were a white guy, he'd be John Edwards with no policies.

Like I said, listen to Shelby Steele's speech. You can get it off the APM: Word for Word Podcast.

2/7/2008 6:21:48 PM

In the war between perception and reality in politics, perception wins when voters go to the polls...

Except for those who pay attention, but they're in the minority

2/7/2008 6:23:46 PM

Of course perception wins. I'm not arguing that. I'm just saying that said perception is strongly influenced by his "bargaining" facade.

Do you really think a white male challenger, no matter how good an orator, would get any attention when faced with the HRC juggernaut?

For that matter, I wonder if Obama doesn't need Hillary Clinton as an opponent. Their combined presence shifted the debate from one of "policy" to one of gender vs. race. If it were Richardson, Edwards, Dodd, Gravel, and Obama, I think you would have seen a Richardson / Edwards / Obama race. Just m2c.

2/7/2008 6:27:26 PM

Quote :

"Do you really think a white male challenger, no matter how good an orator, would get any attention when faced with the HRC juggernaut?"

Yes, I do. Part of the reason that Obama gets all the attention that he does is because he's the "anti-hillary" candidate. If Obama hadn't been in it, then John Edwards would've been that candidate and I think that he would've been hugely popular (maybe without the rock star status that Obama seems to have been able to generate).

Without HRC, I think it would've been Biden, Edwards and Obama.

[Edited on February 7, 2008 at 6:41 PM. Reason : doing too many things at once! dur]

2/7/2008 6:38:30 PM

Edwards? you got to be kidding me...he wouldnt be close to Obama's status...first of all, his support was largely white men, Obama is hugely popular among blacks and now almost splits even the white vote with her. Edwards wouldnt of been this....and she would of creamed him. I mean, Edwards would of been the same old same old.....white male against white female....and she would of got most of the black vote.

2/7/2008 8:32:32 PM

I think if it was Edwards vs HRC it would've come down to whether or not people wanted another Clinton in the White House or wanted something different... With the polling that was done early on, Edwards was ahead of both HRC and Obama.

He ran a shitty campaign and didnt get his message out in the best possible way. I think if his campaign was run differently, then people would have a different opinion of him.

2/7/2008 9:29:44 PM

so JCash

you think this whole thing could be decided on the Dem side with the Texas and Ohio primaries if Obama wins them?

2/7/2008 9:36:37 PM