will the DOW hit 12,000 in '09?

my magic 8-ball says "signs point to yes"

you heard it here first



[Edited on December 31, 2008 at 4:54 PM. Reason : /]

12/31/2008 4:47:50 PM

first

12/31/2008 5:13:57 PM

[Edited on December 31, 2008 at 5:23 PM. Reason : ]

12/31/2008 5:23:32 PM

I hope to start 2009 with a big bang, i hold IDMPQ stock
it should be getting bought out today or the next few days $$$$$$

12/31/2008 5:31:59 PM

$$$$$$$$$$

12/31/2008 5:35:16 PM

damn, i forgot to start it. 2008 was my most successful thread ever

On second thought, I brought some seriously bad luck. On that note, I predict the market @ 5000. We still haven't felt the effects of job losses.

[Edited on December 31, 2008 at 11:50 PM. Reason : antijinx]

12/31/2008 11:44:40 PM

Here's to hoping the year starts off the way the last 2 days of 2008 went for me. Would really love this rally to hold up a bit longer so I can free up cash for the next big drop and reenter at some much better prices. Good luck to everyone we could all use it after the 2008 fun.

1/2/2009 8:59:11 AM

+rupah, +aaoag

1/2/2009 10:48:57 AM

another 4% so far today that makes 14+% in the past 2 trading days plus today. Please to keep going so I dont feel so bad about 2008 anymore lol

1/2/2009 11:05:24 AM

-rupah (+37.77%), -aaoag (+36.36%)

1/2/2009 2:14:32 PM

1/2/2009 3:21:36 PM

QUESTION!

I just graduated and am about to start a job. I want to start investing in the Stock Market. I figured it's a good time with all the prices being so low.

Where do I start?

1/2/2009 8:06:39 PM

the last two trading days so light trading....dont fool yourself and get your hopes up.

[Edited on January 3, 2009 at 12:14 AM. Reason : w]

1/3/2009 12:14:02 AM

^^ Stay the fuck away from American equities. You have too bright of an investing future ahead to invest in garbage.


Go international, look for high dividend yields of sustainable corporations. Don't keep anything in cash think basket currencies.

Dollar denominated commodities will go higher when the dollar implodes but that is a hedge not a creation of wealth.

If you INSIST on American equities at least find American companies who will do well when our exports start booming, our manufacturing base is re-built, or possibly a short-term infrastructure play before our government bankrupts itself.

Just stay the fuck away from bottomless pits like real estate (too risky short term and no long term reward), retail (when a bubble bursts it bursts), financials (stay away from debt based models for now), etc

When someone says its a "value" play make sure they don't mention the stock price or it's PE ratio based on falsified '07 earnings. If they do walk away. Wait until you see earnings to believe them.

And for all things good and holy stay away from corporate bonds (junk), junk bonds (double junk), and US treasuries (junk without a yield!)

[Edited on January 3, 2009 at 2:11 AM. Reason : a]

1/3/2009 2:11:03 AM

^thanks for the info,
just one more question, what is a stock exactly?

[Edited on January 3, 2009 at 3:19 AM. Reason : .]

1/3/2009 3:18:48 AM

i'm pretty sure this is one of those situations where if you can't understand at least a quarter of what he's saying, you should just stick to maxing out your company's 401k and your Roth IRA, and leave individual picks to the pros

or research enough to get to the point where you can agree or rebut whatever he's said, and then you can play in the big kids pool

either, or

[Edited on January 3, 2009 at 4:29 AM. Reason : you are maxing your 401k/IRA limits, right? no point investing if you're not getting those taxbreaks]

1/3/2009 4:28:30 AM

^^ A stock is a share of ownership in a company. Companies sell shares of stock in order to generate capital.

rallydurham is well-informed, but his views are somewhat unconventional and in some cases, bordering on extreme. I'm not saying to ignore his advice--I'm saying to recognize it for what it is and take it with a grain of salt.

^ IRAs and 401k plans are tax advantaged account structuring, which is a whole different subject that warrants its own discussion and consideration. The question of what investments to buy is a seperate issue, but I will say that if are asking what a stock is, you don't need to be buying them individually. Stick to mutual (to include index) funds.

Speaking very generally here, you should probably fund your 401k to whatever (if any) extent you are offered a company match, then max out a Roth IRA. Any investing you do after that can either be done in the 401k or in a regular taxable account (your choice--pros and cons to each). As far as what specifically to buy, there are different approaches, but you should, in my opinion, own a sizeable chunk of large cap domestic stock (an S&P 500 tracker), a foreign index, a small/mid-cap fund, and an emerging markets fund (and not all in equal proportions).

Also, priority #1 is to pay off any high-interest debt and build a cash reserve (savings acct, or better yet, money market acct, despite what rallydurham might say) of 3-6 months of living expenses.

1. Pay off high interest debt (credit cards, etc)
2. cash savings, 3 months living expenses
3. 401k up to company match
4. roth ira
5. additional 401k or taxable account investing; continue to build cash reserves to 6+ months of expenses

1/3/2009 8:22:36 AM

Your #1 priority should be to protect your income. Diversify your skillset and bring added value to the table for your employer. Real unemployment is already being understated drastically and there is no telling how much worse it will get.

Your #2 priority should be to avoid consumer debt at any cost.

Your #3 priority should be to keep your fixed monthly bills low so you can build up savings.

Your #4 priority should be to make sure your savings aren't dollars because they are simply way too risky.

Your #5 priority should be to contribute only to the company match on a 401k. That thing is a ticking tax bomb (you're probably in the lowest income bracket you will ever be in right now).

Your #6 priority should be to max out a roth IRA. I can't stress this enough. This is going to be the vehicle that keeps people out of the poor house in retirement.

Your #7 priority is to learn to evaluate the economy independent of government reported lies and biases. Remember the government only cares to inflate away their debts at the expense of your life savings. "We're the government and we're here to help" should look more suspicious than an arab on a plane with a chemistry degree.

Your #8 priority is to invest in companies who generate real wealth creation. They will be the ones in existence when this thing shakes out.

You #9 priority is to stay away from bubbles. The government's solution to delaying recessions is to create a bubble and when it bursts to deflect attention by creating a new bubble. Capital misdirection is bringing the entire country to its knees. The new bubble is the US treasury so whatever the fuck you do, stay away from the US dollar.

1/3/2009 11:18:59 AM

^What international stocks are you invested in?

Just curious?

1/3/2009 11:59:31 AM

Quote :

"^^ Stay the fuck away from American equities. You have too bright of an investing future ahead to invest in garbage. "

You're an idiot.

Quote :

"Go international, look for high dividend yields of sustainable corporations. "

So, because it is "international" that somehow makes it better than a US high dividend sustainable corporation - whatever that means?

Quote :

"Dollar denominated commodities will go higher when the dollar implodes but that is a hedge not a creation of wealth."

So, should we get into those now, or after deflation has finished with their current prices?

Quote :

"Just stay the fuck away from bottomless pits like real estate (too risky short term and no long term reward), retail (when a bubble bursts it bursts), financials (stay away from debt based models for now), etc"

Holy shit, you're the next Schiff...can I give you a Nobel Price now?

Quote :

"When someone says its a "value" play make sure they don't mention the stock price or it's PE ratio based on falsified '07 earnings. If they do walk away. Wait until you see earnings to believe them."

You are at least not entirely retarded.

Quote :

" Your #4 priority should be to make sure your savings aren't dollars because they are simply way too risky."

You need to start setting some time frames on this advise. I'd assume most of it is dealing with the sooner rather than the later. We will be dealing with a pernicious amount of deflation long before this massive amount of money printing and ZIRP rears it's ugly head.

1/3/2009 6:56:43 PM

^ Sorry tigershark but you are wrong.

Deleveraging just caused the last dollar rally. The rally was short but intense. It provided a buying opportunity for everyone else who is ready to fade it.

Everyone liquified their holdings into cash. But now they will be forced to spend that cash because they have no income.

Obviously the rest of the world isn't going to hold toxic waste (dollars) forever.


If you like equities then invest abroad. If the US equity market goes higher the foreign market will double it. If the US equity market is stagnant the foreign market will build slowly (which means sustainable growth). If the US market declines the foreign equity market will too but you won't care because you invested in dividends and long term plays.

The US model is not sustainable. The US has a robin hood mentality. They will steal from the rich (i.e. profitable corporations) and give to the poor (GM, Citi, AIG, etc). The other nations are going to stop rooting for the US (i.e. holding dollars) and start unleashing havoc (selling them). Our rookie QB Barack won't even matter because his puppet ass can't stem the flow of what has been building for 15 years. (i.e. cheering on 3rd down so loudly that our QB can't even hear the audible and stays the course with a run up the middle).


As far as personal stocks go I own very few specifics. They are all defensive plays

XOM: stable oil play they make less on the way up and lose less on the way down

AAPL: still grab the consumer dollar. huge cash position. no debt. can sell their products abroad when the trade deficit reverses

MO: Cigarettes are addictive. Unemployed idiots smoke them. They'd rather bypass their kids health insurance than give up smoking.

PKX: Foreign governments are corrupt too. They will build infrastructure with citizen money.

POT: Of course I own this. This stock was the victim of illiquidity and forced liquidations. They show real earnings and have year over year sustainable growth even in a global slowdown. The current stock price will look ridiculous 24 months from now and still a bargain even 3-6 months from now.

I'm too drunk to think of any other specific stocks.

I still hold some total losers like "SPX", "ADRE", and Fid Lev. Co. Stock..... EW. I am holding them just in case I am wrong... but I double down on my deodorant before I sniff those statements.

The rest of my stock portfolio is in international ETF's that are concentrated in Asia...

Gold is still an unreal play at these levels. I expect it to make an unreal rally from the mid 800s to 1200-1400 in the next year when the treasury bubble bursts and people are still afraid of stocks.

Be sure to take profits along the way because gold will bubble faster than real estate, financials, and treasuries



[Edited on January 4, 2009 at 12:15 AM. Reason : a]

1/4/2009 12:10:42 AM

Well I will say I own POT got in at 71.90 and I too like gold plays as my AUY has been making a nice run since november, the bad news is I bought most of my shares before the crash so Im still working my way back up to even before I start getting back into profit. Kicking myself for not getting some more while it was cheap because I am not sure if there is gonna be another pullback I keep waiting for.

1/4/2009 10:42:40 AM

^^ Are you really that confident in gold?

I got in pretty cheap with XTO (bought at 28.37, now at 37.58) and AAP (bought at 25.45, now at 34.14), both are up about 29% over the last 3 months. Is there a good rule of thumb as to when to unload a stock that has performed well? Or should I just leave everything alone, since nothing is broken....yet.

1/4/2009 3:18:41 PM

Quote :

"The US model is not sustainable. The US has a robin hood mentality. They will steal from the rich (i.e. profitable corporations) and give to the poor (GM, Citi, AIG, etc)."

What profitable corporations were stolen from and given to the poor? What is the US model you refer to?

Quote :

"The other nations are going to stop rooting for the US (i.e. holding dollars) and start unleashing havoc (selling them)."

Rofl, where the hell are they going to invest? With what capital? Decoupling never happened, it's why overseas indexes gave up more than our own indexes did. What technical talent are they going to gain in a decade? What leadership? What entrepreneurial spirit? The only thing I can agree with you on, is if we don't get this huge debt we've (and will) undertaken under control sooner rather than later, we'll be the new Japan (only worse). But you're a moron if you think you we'll be able to figure out which overseas index is going to fare better in the short term than US indexes or equities. The US always has led the world into recession and led the world out.

Quote :

"PKX: Foreign governments are corrupt too. They will build infrastructure with citizen money."

So you first advocated to stay away from US equities, seemingly because the model is corrupt, but then you suggest to invest in the overseas equities because of this same corruption? Get the f@cK out.

Quote :

" The rest of my stock portfolio is in international ETF's that are concentrated in Asia... "

Which ones? The key piece of all your advice was foreign investment, and you can't even tell us which ones you are holding?

1/4/2009 5:30:29 PM

+auy

1/5/2009 11:16:37 AM

still got DRYS -- i should probably sell some today

1/5/2009 12:18:44 PM

Heh. Starting the year off right.

Personal Rate of Return from 01/01/2009 to 01/02/2009 is 2.9%

1/5/2009 2:23:22 PM

+sds

1/5/2009 2:43:47 PM

Any advice as to go with 401K or Roth 401K or split between the two?

1/5/2009 2:45:21 PM

Ive been debating with that a lot myself. Ive talked to several ppl and its fairly split down the middle.

It seems like on TWW more people lean towards investing in your 401k only to get the company match and no more than that and then maxing out your Roth. At the moment I am just at 20% in my 401k but I am certainly open to dropping down to 10% or even all the way down to 5% (we match 5% 1:1) and maxing out a Roth, but I havent decided yet.

Just a quick note though, recently I had a friend switch from 20% in his 401k to 5% in his 401k and then maxing out his Roth. I thought I had heard him tell me when he got the job that his company matched .50:$1 not $1:$1. So he checked and I was right so he bumped his 401k up to 10% to get his company's full match of 5%. Im sure most people know how their company matches, but I dont want anyone to think they are getting their full company match when they aren't like he was doing for a few months.

1/5/2009 2:52:49 PM

Well down day for the market but another pretty good day for me, bit of a dropoff the past 30 minutes but I am actually in the green with some stocks I have been holding for months so Im pretty happy about that. Im closing in on a 19% overall gain in about 4 trading days. Im ok with AUY going down for a few days as I plan to possibly sell some things to put more into it if it keeps dropping as this rally aint gonna last forever so Im trying to take what I can from it then wait for the next bottom.

1/5/2009 3:41:18 PM

Unless you are to stupid to manage your own IRA account than you should under most circumstances NOT contribute more than to what your company matches to your 401k. After your 401k any additional you feel you want to save goes into your IRA.

1/5/2009 6:49:39 PM

how about if you have a roth 401k?

1/5/2009 6:57:47 PM

^^ Im assuming Roth IRAs can be setup much like a company 401k in that I can distribute money amongst funds (large cap, small cap etc.) as opposed to having to micromanage the portfolio?

1/5/2009 7:14:12 PM

^ not usually. IRA's are typically going to be brokerage accounts that have firm minimums to purchase the funds. Obviously you are going to be needing to buy mutual funds if you are contributing a monthly amount b/c the commissions will kill you on stocks/etf's. Or you can just contribute a lump sum at some point if you want to go the stock route.

You'll either need to find a fund that complements your overall retirement portfolio or pick something like a 2050 lifecycle fund...

Quote :

"What profitable corporations were stolen from and given to the poor? "

Is this serious? The US has one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. Take a look and see how much money the government has stolen from Exxon over the last three years.

Quote :

" where the hell are they going to invest? "

I think they will start to consume rather than invest abroad. Why continue to produce goods for us if in exchange they get worthless pieces of paper and IOU's? Why not become consumers of US goods or domestically produced goods?

Quote :

" Decoupling never happened, it's why overseas indexes gave up more than our own indexes did."

Disagree. Many foreign companies were dependent on the US consumer and they will pay dearly. Other companies were not dependent on the US consumer. Foreigners are capable of consuming their own goods. Their indexes tanked because of the crappy investments they made in the US. Many of their business models are still fundamentally sound.

Quote :

" The only thing I can agree with you on, is if we don't get this huge debt we've (and will) undertaken under control sooner rather than later, we'll be the new Japan (only worse). "

So let me get this straight. You agree things are about to get really ugly in this country but you still like the US economy to pull through. Does not compute. There's no way in hell our corrupt politicians are going to balance a budget when expenditures are grossly being understated (i.e. the Iraq war deception), bailout costs continue rising, unemployment benefits skyrocket, etc. I didn't even mention the unfunded liabilities like social security and medicare... Where is $50 trillion going to magically appear from? Paging Helicopter Ben.

Tax revenues are disappearing. State governments have had issues for years with the switch from manufacturing to service. If we had a consumption tax in place the government could have curtailed spending a long time ago and *gasp* actually been running revenue surpluses when times were good to save for this meltdown.

Now tax revenues are about to take an enormous hit. MRD's aren't required next year. Capital gains? Tough to find any of those this year. Income taxes? No one is employed. Sales tax? No one is buying anything. Corporate taxes? They aren't making profits. Where are these revenues going to come from?

It's all a giant ponzi scheme and it's about to collapse under its own weight. It's like Buffet says when the tide goes out you see who has been swimming naked. Well, the tide is out and the government is naked.

Gold reserves? Gone a long time ago most likely. I wouldn't be shocked if the government forces gold redemptions again once the currency collapses.

Quote :

"But you're a moron if you think you we'll be able to figure out which overseas index is going to fare better in the short term than US indexes or equities."

We're in about year 8 of a giant US bear market. What the hell makes you think the US will perform well over the next decade? Will we see a bear market rally in '09? Sure, I could see that. It would give me a great opportunity to unload a lot of my remaining shitty US positions.

Quote :

" The US always has led the world into recession and led the world out."

Please provide historic details of when the US was the world's biggest debtor while continuing to run huge trade deficits.

You wanna invest in US equities, go right ahead. Just make sure you've got tight stops in place. And that your "emergency expense" fund is protected from the eventual fiat collapse.

[Edited on January 6, 2009 at 1:40 AM. Reason : a]

[Edited on January 6, 2009 at 1:42 AM. Reason : a]

1/6/2009 1:23:08 AM

I think you guys misunderstood me. I'm talking about a roth 401k. Not a roth IRA.

1/6/2009 9:22:12 AM

If you're in the 25% tax bracket or less I would go roth 401k for sure.

If we keep printing money the indexes stand to gain a lot. Even though your purchasing power doesn't change your taxable liability will change a lot. I believe deflation is a myth and inflation has been understated for years. Once we see all the deleveraging wind down you'll see heavy inflation even as the gov't intentionally continues to understate it. I'd get the taxes out of the way so what you see is what you get.

Tax brackets have to go higher. If you are someone who plans on saving a shitload over the course of your life you stand to still be in a high income bracket in retirement. You will probably find yourself one day in a tax bracket high enough where saving a lot of pretax money makes sense. I don't think 25% is one of them.

Besides, your company match money will go in as pretax dollars so by you contributing roth you are benefitting from tax diversification.

1/6/2009 7:48:44 PM

Looks like a bear trap day. I bet the morning gap gets filled and we still end the day positive, or close to it.

1/7/2009 9:35:04 AM

In on page 1

1/7/2009 9:39:22 AM

Sounds good. I did the regular 401k for 2 years and switched to roth 401k mid last year. Guess I will stick with that for now.

1/7/2009 10:24:38 AM

Be careful with a Roth if you believe you will ever make over $100k. There are limitations as to who can contribute to a roth and once you hit a certain income level, you can no longer contribute.

Why would you care? You are then left with a pool of dollars that can sometimes be difficult to diversify due to the size of the account. (Depending how long you are in a Roth and how quickly your income increases).

1/7/2009 11:09:47 AM

that's why you'd load up now and get as much in as you can prior to breaking the cap

1/7/2009 11:20:14 AM

Yeah, I didn't think his post made much sense.

1/7/2009 11:36:47 AM

Quote :

"Why would you care? You are then left with a pool of dollars that can sometimes be difficult to diversify due to the size of the account. (Depending how long you are in a Roth and how quickly your income increases). "

Uhhhh

What are you talking about?

1/7/2009 11:40:03 AM

Quote :

"that's why you'd load up now and get as much in as you can prior to breaking the cap "

That's why I said it depends on how fast you anticipate your income going up

Quote :

"What are you talking about?"

I'm talking about your ability to diversify your Roth once you can no longer contribute. We have clients who are stuck with roths that have only $10-$15K because of getting capped out of contribution and they have trouble diversifying in the market or going into private placement because the sum isn't large enough

Quote :

"Yeah, I didn't think his post made much sense."

Her

[Edited on January 7, 2009 at 12:27 PM. Reason : her]

1/7/2009 12:26:44 PM

How is it a problem diversifying?

1/7/2009 12:47:53 PM

You realize you should be diversifying your portfolio as a whole? You don't need to specifically diversify every single account.

1/7/2009 12:52:15 PM

you can't merge a Roth with a traditional

1/7/2009 1:04:03 PM

but yes, I'm well aware

1/7/2009 1:04:24 PM

Why would you want to merge them?

1/7/2009 1:18:43 PM