After saying "No Way" last year, Libertarian-leaning B.J. Lawson is sniffing blood in the water and jumping back in. New-comer Frank Roche is also running as a more main-stream republican.

The key goal of course is to loosen the 23 year grip David Price has had on the 4th District. Last election, all Price had to do was put up some yard signs and ride the Obama wave to victory. With voter's anti-incumbent fever though this year, Price's political career could be coming to a most welcome retirement.

Check out each candidate's site....

Frank Roche http://www.rocheforcongress.com/?page_id=39

B.J. Lawson http://www.lawsonforcongress.com/

2/11/2010 1:15:27 AM

Besides flip-flopping on entering, which is really small potatoes compared to waiting so late to start campaign - the conservative website I first saw this on called his entering a surprising twist, a candidate like Lawson who is anti-choice, anti-federal funding for education, anti-federal funding for research in the research triangle is never going to win a district that consists of Durham, Orange, and part of Wake. Being anti-gay marriage loses him some votes in Orange especially, but he was never going to carry that county (practically half of the district he's running for) anyways. He lost Orange something to the tune of 72 to 28%.

I don't know if it is the candidate you mentioned, but Lawson already said way back when that he would not endorse the republican who is running this time because he disagreed with him so much, so the GOP primary I think will be much more interesting than the general election.

[Edited on February 11, 2010 at 1:38 AM. Reason : .]

2/11/2010 1:38:05 AM

Price won't lose his seat. The demographics alone are enough to make him a shoe in. He has won his last three elections with 67%, 65%, and 62% of the vote. That's a total ass whipping, and no matter what happens at the higher levels, there's no way this seat will be in play.

A phenomenal candidate might have the ability to make things closer, but other than that, the best the Republican can expect in my mind is a 60-40 loss.

[Edited on February 11, 2010 at 2:31 AM. Reason : d]

2/11/2010 2:30:59 AM

Lawson is a known entity who won't have much trouble raising money and has the experience of running this before, plus the affiliation with Ron Paul which brings in nation-wide money. Roche's website needs some work. He is way too long winded on biography and extremely brief on issues.


Gonna be interesting, but unless Price has a major gaffe, he is safe.

2/11/2010 8:44:10 AM

Quote :

"The demographics alone are enough to make him a shoe in."

Maybe..NC democrats shaved off conservative-leaning Randolph county during re-districting giving Price a seemingly life-time lock.

But a low turn-out in Orange County in 1994 gave republican Fred Heinemann a narrow victory over Price.

The GOP needs to drive home the points that Price voted for the Porkulus bill, voted Yes for Cap n Tax and voted yes on Pelosi's health care debacle. He is a 23 year life-time incumbent.

2/11/2010 9:52:10 AM

Quote :

"Incumbents have financial head-start for 2010 elections Money in hands Posted: Nov. 16, 2009 ... The three Republicans trying to unseat 4th District Congressman David Price have a combined $11,000 in campaign cash, compared with Price's $218,000. Still, Frank Roche, one of the challengers, said he doesn't think he needs much money to run his campaign. "I don't think we have to spend more than him because we're going to bring a new, courageous, aggressive campaign," Roche said. "Right now, I'm not concerned. If we have the same gap in August of 2010, then I have concern."

Roche's campaign blog goes back to July, at least he's been out there working the field for a while rather than entering as a surprise candidate as Lawson has with less than 3 full months to campaign before the primary.

Here are some other candidates who have been campaigning longer than Lawson:

http://gregdorityforcongress.com/

http://www.georgehutchins.com/

Granted Hutchins has no shot, and Dority's is slim at best for winning the GOP primary, but its a crowded field with some potential infighting. And Lawson, back in August when he said he wouldn't run and wouldn't endorse the GOP who was campaigning for the 2010 election at the time, he said this "we fundamentally disagree on the value of the Federal Reserve and its communist..." Lawson pulling out the C word when talking about another candidate is fightin' words for them GOPs. Maybe it wont get too ugly though.

May the least communist republican win!

2/11/2010 9:58:49 AM

bj lawson responded to a question from the independent during the 2008 election on how to spur economic growth by focusing on, and repeatedly bringing up...ending taxes on bartering.

Quote :

"voted Yes for Cap n Tax"

Do you seriously think that talk radio talking points are going to be the way to unseat a liberal in Chapel fucking Hill?

2/11/2010 1:35:27 PM

The district is gerrymandered to the point where I don't think any Republican has a great shot at winning. Chapel Hill is going to go for anyone with a D next to their name, regardless of what they stand for, what they've done, or who they're up against.

2/11/2010 1:39:47 PM

District 12 is a snake, district 1 & 3 form a jigsaw puzzle, but district 4 (the one for this race - consisting mostly of Orange, Durham, & the east half of Wake) is the closest thing to a square out of every district in NC. Of areas of its size, the research triangle is probably the most left leaning part of the state. It doesn't take gerrymandering for a democrat to win here.

2/11/2010 1:54:39 PM

It'd make a lot more sense for the district to be Raleigh and its suburbs. Instead, they took just enough of Wake County (Cary, Apex, Fuquay), which may have some conservative vote, and paired it up with Durham/Chapel Hill/Carrboro, areas that will always vote Democrat.

2/11/2010 1:57:55 PM

Since districts have to be roughly equal in terms of population, and Wake has a population alone that exceeds that limit, Wake has to be broken up. Given that, putting the east half of Wake with the rest of the research triangle seems like a very natural district.

If you were arguing about District 2, which looks like a throwing star which has points reaching into Raleigh and out in several other directions, then you'd have more of a case. But you are right, it is a very democratic district, and a candidate who started his campaign like 2.9 months before the primary election isn't going to win the general.

I'll re-purpose this old pic just to highlight the triangle area that the GOP candidates are trying to win.


[Edited on February 11, 2010 at 4:00 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2010 3:38:46 PM

Quote :

"May the least communist republican win!"

LoL very good!

Although it would be a daunting campaign, it can be done. Obama won Mass. by 24 points in '08 but Scott Brown won his senate seat by 6 points in '10. Things can change!

2/11/2010 11:12:38 PM

^while you are trying to defeat Price (will not happen), recruit a republican (if there are any) to run against Nancy, I am sure since Brown won Mass that there is a chance she could also loose!

2/12/2010 12:41:01 AM

Quote :

"But a low turn-out in Orange County in 1994 gave republican Fred Heinemann a narrow victory over Price."

LOL the good-ol-days of the Republican Revolution. Heineman sure was one heck of a single-term congressman

david price owns his seat until the day he retires or dies. if you people had any sense, you'd spend your time and energy working for a congressional seat that is actually in play.

Quote :

"Obama won Mass. by 24 points in '08 but Scott Brown"

is irrelevant to david price. brown's contest was for an open seat against an opponent who shot herself in the foot on several occasions.

david price is a popular incumbent, and the current revolution of republican teabaggers have none of the credibility that gingrich organized in 94.



[Edited on February 12, 2010 at 1:12 AM. Reason : ]

2/12/2010 1:06:02 AM

Quote :

"david price owns his seat until the day he retires or dies. if you people had any sense, you'd spend your time and energy working for a congressional seat that is actually in play."

Sad but true. I'm convinced that we need term limits, and badly. We'd be better off with a true "citizen legislature." Career politicians are destroying the country.

2/12/2010 1:35:25 AM

Quote :

"Do you seriously think that talk radio talking points are going to be the way to unseat a liberal in Chapel fucking Hill?"

Maybe if they do a good job of explaining how their utility bills are going to skyrocket if tax n cap gets through.


In Frank Roche news...

Quote :

"RALEIGH—The North Carolina chapter of the grassroots free-market group Americans for Prosperity (AFP-NC) today applauded U.S. House candidate Frank Roche (4th District) for signing the group’s No Climate Tax pledge. Roche joins more than 350 lawmakers and candidates on the federal, state and local levels pledging to “oppose legislation relating to climate change that includes a net increase in government revenue.” “The one thing elected officials should be able to agree on is that global warming shouldn’t be used as an excuse to hike taxes on citizens and businesses,” said AFP-NC State Director Dallas Woodhouse."

2/12/2010 10:25:22 AM

Ahhh, yes, Dallas Woodhouse, that lovely specimen of a man is still around.

On a side note, I hate the stupid names that these groups come up with, like Americans For Prosperity. Because clearly, the rest of us want America to fail and be poor.

2/12/2010 12:01:58 PM

Quote :

"Sad but true. I'm convinced that we need term limits, and badly. We'd be better off with a true "citizen legislature." Career politicians are destroying the country."

If only this had been in place for Jesse Helms.

2/12/2010 1:36:04 PM

^^That part is true. According to EarthDogg even President Obama "has a secret desire for the economy to fail"

2/12/2010 2:04:49 PM

^^Oh, I agree. One of the problems is that we have these old people in office holding back progress. We need younger generations getting into office, and we need people to have to live under the policies that they create. As it stands now, the politicians are in a bubble, completely disconnected from the "real" America.

^It's hard for me to believe that Obama wants us to fail as a country, but at the same time, he's pursuing policies that will cause us to fail. Good intentions don't mean a thing if you don't understand the fundamentals that allow for a healthy economy.

2/12/2010 2:54:05 PM

Don't start that pursuing policies that will cause us to fail, cause us to be unsafe, let the terrorists win, lose the war against the Russians, make the founders roll over in their graves crap.

And yes, I lump them all together.

The truth is, people from different political backgrounds and ideologies have different ideas about what is best for the country, and what will cause us to be the best in the end. Very few people are actually qualified to predict the economic outcomes of these decisions. Even after the fact, all sides will claim their policies were responsible for the good things and their opponents' were responsible for the bad things. (There are some Republicans who say that the later Clinton economy that went so well was actually a result of the Reagan and Bush policies which had finally started having an impact.)

We all have a different idea about what will work, but no one really knows until after it's all over, and even then it's hard to tell. I don't know if spending money now will help, as it seems to have helped in the Great Depression, or if it will just cause us to spiral deeper into debt and screw up our future in the long run. If Paulsen and Greenspan were fooled, then I think it's safe to say a lot of other economic folks have no way to predict for certain the results of the current economic policies.

2/12/2010 6:13:31 PM

Quote :

"According to EarthDogg even President Obama "has a secret desire for the economy to fail""

Close... Obama wants to pursue socialist policies which will cause the economy to fail.

David Price has been following the same liberal game-plan for ages..get taxes raised and then bring the pork home. But we're broke and need some new ideas. His tired methods are part of what got us into trouble. We have to stop spending money we don't have.

And it's clear, at this late stage of his political career, that he's not planning on helping the country change course.

2/13/2010 1:21:45 AM

"Close... Obama wants "

How was that only close? I quoted you!

2/13/2010 1:34:53 AM

In '08, heavy Obama straight-tickets worked for Price, and in '10 the effect will be reversed. Anyone who ever thought about voting Republican will be motivated to come out, and that may be enough to put any Rep. in striking distance.

Still not gonna happen, IMHO, but the chances are WAY better than last time.

2/13/2010 2:14:12 AM

IIRC, Bush won NC by quite a bit, yet with all those republicans coming out to vote, Price still won by even more.

2/13/2010 3:57:14 AM

Well if anything, we might be able to get him to work for it this time around. It's about the only time we can watch these old statists sweat a little.

2/13/2010 10:42:40 AM

I wish I still lived in Cary so I could be a boots on the ground voice against this guy.

I was steamed the home buyer credit was renewed and broadened to include move up buyers because I was more or less forced to sell my home and move for work. In the process I had to eat $13,000 in losses because of commission and the dip in home values on a home I'd otherwise be in for the next decade. That $8000 could certainly come in handy, at the very least being able to write off a portion of the loss would be welcome as well so long as were raining money on the populace. I sent him a message outlining my extreme displeasure that he supported the bill and I eventually got this reply:

Quote :

"Dear Mr. Tucker: Thank you for contacting me regarding legislation to renew the first-time homebuyer tax credit. I am glad to hear from you. As you know, the $8,000 first-time homebuyer tax credit was created in February as part of the economic stimulus bill, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (PL 111-5), and was set to expire on November 30, 2009. As part of a broader legislative effort to bolster the economy, the House passed HR 3548, the Worker, Home Ownership and Business Assistance Act of 2009, on November 5. Among its provisions, the bill would extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit for homes purchased through April 30, 2010, in an effort to strengthen our domestic housing market. It is important to note that homes sold for more than $800,000 would not be eligible for the credit. Other important provisions of the legislation will extend unemployment benefits for jobless Americans and provide tax relief to businesses that have experienced operating losses. The President signed the bill into law on November 6, 2009 (P.L. 111-92). I share your concern about the need for greater fiscal responsibility and I am pleased to report that the legislation will not add to the deficit. The bill offsets costs by extending a 0.2% surtax under the Federal Unemployment Tax Act for 18 months, increasing fines and penalties for partnerships and S corporations that fail to file a tax return, and delaying a tax break for U.S. multinational companies. Thank you again for contacting me, and please continue to stay in touch regarding issues of concern. Sincerely, DAVID PRICE Member of Congress"

DO WHAT? Here's the thing: They raised the unemployment tax on employers to pay for this. I suppose in theory, if you're trying to raise funds for unemployment, you increase a tax already targeted at employers for this cost...the problem is the unemployment portion of this act was ~$2 billion while the cost for the housing credit was $10 billion. Un fucking believable. This is nothing more than a handout for the housing industry, and by pass through, the banking industry.

Is there a sane liberal anywhere that can make the argument this is good legislation? This is crony capitalism at it's worst.

2/13/2010 11:11:40 AM

^
But don't you feel better knowing your wealth has been spread around?

2/13/2010 9:09:54 PM

I'm socially pragmatic. I don't have a problem helping out the little person by extending unemployment benefits. I have a real serious problem with legislation crafted by bank and housing lobbyists pushed under the guise of helping the economy when what it really is is a bail out of banks who made risky investments. The saddest thing of all is a guy like Price doesn't understand the interconnectedness of it all to realize it isn't a stimulus bill he voted for but yet another bailout bill.

2/13/2010 10:14:48 PM

jesus christ http://www.georgehutchins.com/index.htm is an abomination

2/16/2010 2:22:27 PM

^it's like he doesn't know that he's running in chapel hill / durham, etc.

from his site:



"Since the year 1979, I have been TRAVELING the World and America for Answers."

[Edited on February 17, 2010 at 8:01 AM. Reason : .]

2/17/2010 7:56:47 AM

You need a Hutchins to off-set a Pelosi.

2/17/2010 8:51:35 AM

I was at the Wake Co Repub convention last night, and my oh my what an eye opening. Roche won the straw poll, but you could vote for ALL of the positions open (a candidate from every district). Roche is clearly a Big Gov Repub, and is a banker from Mass.

Typical politician trying to pull you in by selling his "story" without going too deep in to the actual issues. The guy def looks like he's hungry for power and looks like he'd sell out in a sec.

Anyone that listens to Lawson and Roche will be able to tell the difference.

PS. George Hutchins was not there or on the ballot. Give it to the guy....he anti-ages.

3/16/2010 11:02:10 AM

The problem is that as much as my libertarian heart loves BJ Lawson...he lost last time around to Price with a pretty good margin.

If the goal is to get old man Price back to the classroom, we may have to go with Roche.

But God Bless Dr. Lawson for staying in there and fighting....

Quote :

"Y, N.C., March 16, 2010 – William (B.J.) Lawson, MD, a Republican candidate for the 4th Congressional District in North Carolina, sees Rep. David Price’s promise to vote for the health care reform legislation as a blatant disregard for the majority of North Carolina constituents who are speaking out against the proposals put forth by the Democrats in Washington. Rep. Price stated this week that he will vote for the bill no matter what the final version says. “There is no question that reform needs to occur, but the manner in which the legislation is being written – with numerous components that our bankrupt nation cannot afford and that will significantly decrease the quality of health care – is nothing short of reckless,” said Dr. Lawson. “By combining Medicare and Medicaid payments that don’t cover physicians’ costs with the fact that our Medicare and Social Security programs are both cash flow negative since last year, it’s clear that we cannot rely on Washington to fix our health care problems. “Transferring economic power to individual patients will be the single best way to reduce fraud and abuse, and encourage competition to increase availability of quality care,” Lawson concluded. "

3/17/2010 10:17:16 AM

Frank Roche is going to a St. Patty's day party at my apartment complex this evening. I'm going to go ask him some rather... tough questions.

3/17/2010 10:25:31 AM

^
Sounds Good.
It'll be interesting getting his responses to your questions.

3/17/2010 10:28:35 AM

I'm doing some work for BJ's campaign. Obviously, it's going to be pretty hard to beat Price, but it needs to happen.

3/17/2010 5:03:22 PM

10 minutes till he arrives!

3/17/2010 6:20:07 PM

Well, that was fun.

3/17/2010 10:25:46 PM

^so...what happened?

3/19/2010 3:38:56 AM

Quote :

"Frank Roche Holly Springs Town Hall Meeting sponsored by Roche for Congress! Come ask me questions! Wednesday 3/24 6-7PM Holly Springs Cultural Center (behind Police Station off of N. Main St.) 300 W. Ballentine St. Holly Springs, NC 27540"

3/22/2010 10:59:56 PM

Is it possible to dump that embarrassment Virginia Foxx as well ?

3/23/2010 2:11:45 PM

Replacing David Price: ssjamind

i'll be running as the Pro-Life Democrat

i look forward to your support

3/23/2010 5:22:22 PM