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GeniuSxBoY
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Quote :
"and this is why the government does have the power to stop bitcoin"



Hmm, I think you are mistaken. I am complaining about the process of transferring money into bitcoins from my bank. This has nothing to do with stopping bitcoins altogeher.

6/9/2011 1:55:21 PM

d357r0y3r
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Here's the real world test, I guess. How can Congress "shut down" Bitcoin?

6/9/2011 2:13:45 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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dwolla has been down for almost 20 hours now.


I sense an explosion when it gets back online.

6/9/2011 11:29:18 PM

ncsufanalum
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bitcoin sounds like the perfect 21st century / web 2.0 ponzi scheme -- have fun guys!!

6/9/2011 11:52:38 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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A dollar bill is just a piece of paper.

6/10/2011 3:31:22 AM

CaelNCSU
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http://thebitcoinsun.com/post/2011/06/09/Bitcoin,-the-Darknet-Economy,-and-the-Low-Over-Head-Revolution

Quote :
"This is vitally important to a central theme in my work: the emergence of non-state spaces within which the low-overhead informal and household economy can function, outside the state's ability to create entry barriers, impose artificial capitalization and overhead costs on low-overhead producers, and collect rent on artificial scarcity rents. It's the enforcement of their iniquitous "laws" that prolongs the corporate dinosaurs' feeble grip on life, and enables the usurers, landlords and proprietary content owners to collect tribute from us."

6/10/2011 7:49:18 AM

mbguess
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its an interesting gamble. when americans and the world are losing faith in the dollar at an accelerating pace now might be the proper time for digital currency to creep in and take hold ala napster.

theres definitely money to be made by getting in the game early. just sayin'

6/10/2011 10:32:12 AM

ncsubozo
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Quote :
"Here's the real world test, I guess. How can Congress "shut down" Bitcoin?"


They can effectively kill it by making it increasingly difficult to convert between dollars and bitcoins. It would never go mainstream if sellers have a hard time converting to dollars and buyers have a hard time getting bitcoins.

6/10/2011 10:58:55 AM

EuroTitToss
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how would they go about doing that though?

6/10/2011 11:09:03 AM

face
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$1,000 invested last year is worth $6 million today. Incredible. 500,000% return in one year.

It tripled this week alone since I posted about bitcoin

6/10/2011 11:16:23 AM

mbguess
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I am very intrigued in this idea, not exactly for the financial opportunities but for the possible social outcomes. I can't help but feel I'm going to be hunkered behind a computer for the next few days researching the possibilities.

6/10/2011 11:23:30 AM

GeniuSxBoY
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You know how people said "If only I bought 100 shares of microsoft, I'd be a millionaire today?"



That point was two months ago boys.




There is still money to be made, BUT yerr too late.



And so am I. You can see the timestamp on when I started the process. My money still hasn't arrived in my DWOLLA account. That means millions of people's money hasn't arrived either.

[Edited on June 10, 2011 at 2:39 PM. Reason : .]

6/10/2011 2:37:47 PM

d357r0y3r
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Sounds...bubbly.

6/10/2011 2:49:00 PM

face
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This is going to be a spectacular crash to watch. I love bubbles

6/10/2011 3:13:06 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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crashes are more probable than not.

6/10/2011 3:17:49 PM

ncsubozo
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Quote :
"how would they go about doing that though?"


I don't know whether there's actually edicts passed or just congressional pressure, but basically how they always get banking to stop processing certain transactions (Online gambling, Allofmp3, etc). It wouldn't stop Joe Script Kid from using some obscure or foreign service, but it would stop the general populace from using it.

6/10/2011 3:23:14 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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Crash in progress


Crash in progress

6/10/2011 3:43:04 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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6/10/2011 3:47:43 PM

Shaggy
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lolololololololololololololololol

6/10/2011 3:48:27 PM

EuroTitToss
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awesome. I'm ready to buy now!

6/10/2011 4:44:52 PM

mbguess
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Ill buy once it hits 10.

6/10/2011 5:02:11 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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Quote :
"awesome. I'm ready to buy now!

"




Good lluck, I'm stilllllllllllll waiting for funds to transfer.

6/10/2011 5:29:08 PM

EuroTitToss
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Digital Black Friday: First Bitcoin "Depression" Hits

http://www.dailytech.com/Digital+Black+Friday+First+Bitcoin+Depression+Hits/article21877.htm

actually, when I said "ready" I meant psychologically ready.... I guess dwolla is super slow?

6/11/2011 6:57:11 AM

EuroTitToss
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Damn! It hit a low of 13 and is currently at 20

6/11/2011 10:11:45 AM

Kris
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More wonderful investment advice from face, I wish I built a faux portfolio to show the relative performance of all the investment advice he gives. I imagine it would look something similar to a dismal euro-pac portfolio.

6/11/2011 11:28:05 AM

CaelNCSU
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better and more reliable graphs: http://mtgoxlive.bco.in

6/11/2011 1:05:04 PM

face
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^^ I know you don't understand investing very well but let's recap here.

I recommended buying it at $10.50. One week later it was at $30 so you just tripled your money.

Then I said "wow this is going to be a spectacular crash" literally hours before it dropped 66%.

Do you have any idea how difficult it is to triple your money? At 7% annual growth it would take like 16 years. My advice just did it in a week. Annualized thats like 1,000,000% return you dolt.

You have got to stop trolling me. You're probably the only person in the world who would try to spin a 200% return in one week into "poor advice" and it's simply because you have an obsession with me. You're about 2 creepy steps away from trying to watch me shower dude.

6/11/2011 3:02:36 PM

EuroTitToss
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you got faced

6/11/2011 3:06:16 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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I don't get how it can drop to $13 so fast?


Did one person sell a ton of bitcoins $13? And while he sold them for $13, it was eating up all the bids from $13 to $20 when the bitcoins that one person was selling were gone?

6/11/2011 3:26:39 PM

EuroTitToss
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you know, I'm thinking about buying just so I can play with the mtgox trading api. I've always wanted to write a bot to trade some shit, but never thought it'd be this easy.

^I'm curious too. From what I can see, it took only 10 minutes to go from $20 to $13. But then it hit $20 again within 20 minutes. Maybe someone had set up a bot to sell off automatically at $20 (if you look at the historical price at http://mtgoxlive.com/orders, the crash seems to coincide with $20)? I guess that would have triggered a shitton of buy orders, but I have no idea how fast everything responds.

[Edited on June 11, 2011 at 3:52 PM. Reason : asfdadsfasdf]

6/11/2011 3:39:19 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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Quote :
"I recommended buying it at $10.50."



How did you pick this number?

6/11/2011 7:47:24 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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SHIT IS GETTING INTERESTING

6/11/2011 10:58:32 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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Last Price: 11.1

6/11/2011 10:59:24 PM

EuroTitToss
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6/11/2011 11:02:11 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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my bids are right ahead of that huge orange line

6/11/2011 11:05:47 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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Last Price: 10.6816

6/11/2011 11:12:02 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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big moooovements.

6/11/2011 11:20:41 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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Last Price: 14.18

6/11/2011 11:21:21 PM

EuroTitToss
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$100 million in wealth wiped away in a couple days.

If you had bought around 10 last night, you could be selling off for a 60% profit this morning. What the fuck.

[Edited on June 12, 2011 at 7:05 AM. Reason : asdfsf]

6/12/2011 7:04:34 AM

GeniuSxBoY
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I bought in at 10.59, but sold at $14 overnight... it's automatic. I hate sleep

it's $18 now

6/12/2011 10:52:41 AM

mbguess
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Up to 20 now.

6/12/2011 11:27:07 AM

EuroTitToss
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^^you made a 25% profit overnight. u mad?

6/12/2011 11:50:49 AM

GeniuSxBoY
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I made $86. Bought me some roller blades with it. I only invested 300 because the other $500 hasn't transferred yet. I've been waiting

Quote :
"Transaction Details

Sent To: Mutum Sigillum LLC
Sent On: 6/8/2011 12:30:47 PM
Expected Clearing Date: 6/10/2011 by 5PM CST
Payment Type: Other
Transaction ID: 93752
Transaction Status: Pending scheduled payment
"

6/12/2011 12:43:09 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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I really want to know how face knew it was going to stop at $10.50 long before it happened. That is pretty accurate. He also knew the bubble pop about 2 hours before it happened. I'm sitting here analyzing the data and I don't see any indicators.


I don't even know what do next.

6/12/2011 12:50:34 PM

face
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It didn't have that much to do with the price, I've studied a lot of bubbles.

Basically, the run-up to $10.50 was fairly natural and rational while people used price discovery to reach a "fair value".

Then, the articles come out in mainstream media and everyone and their brother sees this thing is up 200,000% in one year. They all clamor to get into the market. The chart goes parabolic as the currency triples in one week. Parabolic is always the last stage of any bubble before the crash. It's the mania where all rational valuations go out the window.

When something goes parabolic you sell. Right now we're in the "dead cat bounce" phase where buyers return to the market briefly thinking they are getting in at really low prices. The market pops up a relatively significant amount (though no where close to the original high) before it resumes its plunge downward.

On the way down the 2nd time it usually overshoots fair value to the downside before it finally rises back and settles around fair value. Then you get sideways movement for the forseeable future as the market settles into a "trading range"

[Edited on June 12, 2011 at 2:29 PM. Reason : a]

6/12/2011 2:01:49 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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Do you leave it alone after the bubble or what do you do now?

6/12/2011 2:16:18 PM

face
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^ i just edited my post to add what typically happens next in bubbles.

6/12/2011 2:30:11 PM

GeniuSxBoY
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By an educated guess, I'm guessing the next dip will be to $12.10 before it sets at $14 for fair market value?

6/12/2011 2:35:42 PM

EuroTitToss
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if face is right about the dead cat bounce (no idea if he is), then it would be heading below $10

6/12/2011 2:50:40 PM

face
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right, if it follows the pattern i described above it will likely head below $10.

It's hard to say exactly how low because I don't really know what "fair value" is. If fair value is $10 it will probably go as low as $5-$7 before climbing back and settling at $10.

I doubt fair value is any higher than $10 because that's about where it was before the parabolic spike.

Fair value could certainly be a lower than $10 like say $7-$8, in which case it could easily drop to $4-$5 at the low. When bubbles pop they ALWAYS overshoot to the downside before advancing back to fair value.

I haven't studied the products on the website enough to make a reasonable guess as to what fair value is. If I can't value the currency based on what you can purchase for bitcoins it becomes a shot in the dark.

If you want to look at patterns to use as predictors look at past bubbles. The Nasdaq in the late 90's early 2000's, US housing this decade, china 2006- to present, japan in the late 80's-early 90's south sea bubble, tulip bubble, dow in the 20's, etc are all remarkably similar in their formation and pop. They make bubbles actually quite easy to recognize and profit from.

[Edited on June 12, 2011 at 4:17 PM. Reason : a]

6/12/2011 4:16:31 PM

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