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 Message Boards » » QE4 is IMMINENT thread Page 1 [2], Prev  
TerdFerguson
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The ECB . . . .stumbling through the dark since 1998. The most slow, slow-motion disaster of all time!!!!

Can the US keep chugging (also slowly, but at least we're moving)???

3/10/2016 11:52:46 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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There will likely be an increase in the Fed rate tomorrow.

Apparently mortgage rates have already increased half a percentage point since October, due to flight from U.S. treasury bonds.

Does anyone know what would have initiated this flight, since it appears to have begun prior to the election?

12/13/2016 12:40:07 PM

TerdFerguson
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My guess is the Peter Schiff/ZeroHedge/[insert flavor of the week inflationista here] acolytes saw an upward trend in CPI and PCE and proceeded to shit their pants, because hyperinflation and a debt meltdown are always right around the corner!!!

12/13/2016 1:10:35 PM

Pupils DiL8t
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There's speculation that President Trump's fiscal stimulus could trigger inflation and stoke a rise in interest rates.

Any thoughts on how much inflation to expect and how high interest rates could increase in the near future?

[Edited on January 25, 2017 at 11:12 AM. Reason : ]

1/25/2017 11:12:30 AM

TerdFerguson
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Highly dependent on what his stimulus end up looking like, I'd say. If it's 75% tax breaks I wouldn't expect much unless it's just absolutely huge and cuts well beyond infrastructure.

If it's direct payment infrastructure spending, then yea, I'd say inflation picking up is absolutely a possibility, although I have no real way of speculating by how much.

Obviously there is also the real possibility of Trump policy affecting energy prices or prices on imported goods, which is kinda an unpredictable variable.

1/25/2017 12:03:59 PM

TerdFerguson
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Bump so we can talk about anything other than Trump

DAMMIT JANET


[Edited on March 16, 2017 at 8:11 AM. Reason : A whole 1%, look at us go!!!!!!!!!!!]

[Edited on March 16, 2017 at 8:12 AM. Reason : Headed for the stratosphere y'all ]

3/16/2017 8:10:01 AM

TerdFerguson
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WoooWoooo



Sky is the limit, we're taking off

3/31/2017 6:04:01 PM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/02/fed-limits-wells-fargos-growth-citing-consumer-abuses/302973002/

Where has this Janet Yellen been the last 4 years, dang. she coulda been crackin a lot of skulls.

2/3/2018 8:23:48 AM

TerdFerguson
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Ay-yo, mark it down that you heard it here first.

Fed Rate cuts starting in September or October. Continued cutting at random throughout 2020.

By the end of 2020 we will be damn close to a zero fed rate again and the QE conversations will be alive once again!!!

I pray the end of this cycle doesn't nut kick the country so hard that we get to QE, but I do think we will be damn close, both because the market has come to expect/rely on FED intervention and because this Powell guy seems easily manipulated by the president and political sphere.

7/11/2019 8:24:09 AM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-07-16/central-bankers-are-sick-of-rescuing-the-world-economy-alone

What a terrible look. Consider that:

-3/4 of these central bankers were beating the austerity drum 10 years ago when we REALLY could have used some stimulus.
-in the US case, we are running $1trillio/year deficits at the peak of a business cycle. You’re asking to expand the budget in that environment? We are in fiscal stimulus mode right now.

7/16/2019 5:16:15 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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So, about that inverted yield curve...





Quote :
"A shrinking gap between long- and short-dated yields suggests investors expect slower economic growth further out, higher interest rates in the near term to keep inflation in check, or limited rate hikes further out due to softening inflation pressures. Or a mix of all of the above.

An inverted curve, where long-dated yields are lower than short-dated ones, points to the Fed being forced to cut rates in the future."


https://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets-yieldcurve/column-in-defence-of-the-yield-curve-mcgeever-idUSL8N1U74PY

Quote :
"Yield curves normally slope upward as investors demand compensation for putting money at risk over longer periods of time. The willingness to accept lower yields on longer-dated assets than shorter-dated ones offer reflects the expectation that the longer-dated ones will produce higher returns over time as all yields decline, leaving holders of shorter-dated instruments to reinvest at lower rates when they mature."


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis

[Edited on August 14, 2019 at 11:34 AM. Reason : ]

8/14/2019 11:13:24 AM

TerdFerguson
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ItsHappening.gif

8/15/2019 5:57:34 AM

NyM410
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This 2/10 inversion is obviously indicative of a much slower growth economy than we’ve had but I’m not sure we are closing in on recession tbh. Real rates from 30-days to 30-years are negative. If this was caused by RISING real rates it’d be more worrisome and a better indicator.

That combined with a pretty strong job market and consumer and I would be surprised to see contraction in the next 4-6 quarters.

In any case fiscal stimulus and a tax cut in year 9 of an up-cycle was beyond parody and guy’s like Peter Navarro and Larry Kudlow shouldn’t be making decisions on a $5,000 brokerage account let alone be close advisors to a POTUS.

8/15/2019 7:46:45 AM

UJustWait84
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IDK if the job market is "strong" given the fact that a ton of people are working 2+ jobs just to make ends meet...

8/15/2019 11:45:02 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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^^^ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/458354-federal-analysis-economy-created-half-a-million-fewer-jobs-than-was-reported

8/22/2019 8:26:40 AM

NyM410
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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164910399910817797?s=21

Did... did President cat food brain actually think a run of the mill Powell speech in Jackson was an official Fed meeting? Did he think he was going to roll out and announce a 100 point rate cut??

8/23/2019 10:49:48 AM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/business/overnight-lending-rate-spike-ny-fed/index.html

Quote :
"On Tuesday morning, the NY Fed launched what's called an "overnight repo operation," during which the central bank attempts to ease pressure in markets by purchasing Treasuries and other securities. The goal is to pump money into the system to keep borrowing costs from creeping above the Fed's target range ."


So.....basically small scale QE.

Quote :
"As a longer-term solution, Barclays and Bank of America expect the Fed to begin expanding its balance sheet again by purchasing Treasuries. The Fed's bond buying program, known as quantitative easing, or QE, was launched during the financial crisis to keep borrowing costs extremely low. As the economy healed, the Fed reversed course and started to shrink its balance sheet.

Cabana doesn't think the Fed will call this QE, though he said it will work the same way. The central bank will grow its balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries."


Bankers laying the groundwork!! Soon.

9/17/2019 9:12:08 PM

NyM410
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Lol. Trump will continue to say “best economy ever” as the Fed is acting like we are already contracting. Too bad the general public doesn’t understand monetary policy.

I can’t help but think the constant ratfucking by wormbrain has had an effect.

9/17/2019 10:07:15 PM

horosho
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Nobody knows what QE is and the media won't explain it clearly. They are all using figuritive language to describe what happened because people would be rioting in the streets if they understood. No one is asking how we're going to pay for that.

Quote :
"A crack just emerged in the financial markets:"

CNN showed a picture of the market's facade like an actual crack in the building lmao
Quote :
"The New York branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve will step in and offer billions more in liquidity to gummed-up intrabank lending markets Wednesday, following the first intervention in more than a decade only yesterday, as a worrying spike in overnight borrowing costs continues to perplex investors and complicate today's Fed rate decision."

trash trash trash

9/18/2019 12:29:10 PM

TerdFerguson
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So my prediction above said either Sept or Oct rate cuts, with continued cutting through 2020 until we are basically at the lower bound at the end of 2020 (at which point QE4 would crank up).

Seems like an Oct rate cut is probable.

What is really strange is this continuing Repo business. Some are calling it QE-mini, others are calling it business as usual (no.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-01/fed-has-no-choice-but-to-tackle-both-repo-and-recession

Quote :
"Analysts have been expecting that Fed policy makers would probably announce a plan on Oct. 30, after their two-day meeting, to expand the size of the central bank’s balance sheet. The questions would simply have been by how much and whether Chair Jerome Powell could stress that the move wasn’t a return to post-crisis quantitative easing but rather was “organic” growth in line with Fed tradition. It would have been a tough tightrope act to begin with, particularly given Powell’s tendency to speak off the cuff and the fact that he played down the repo market’s mayhem after the Fed’s most recent decision."


Sure Jan, sure.


Quote :
"Powell has admitted that the central bank has no playbook for dealing with a prolonged trade war. So far, his answer has been to drop interest rates time and again. This time might be trickier: He might have to both announce another cut and reveal that the Fed will increase the size of its balance sheet just a few months after shrinking it — and avoid spooking markets at the same time."


Pretty strong “we don’t know wut the fuck we’re doin’” vibe from the FED.


Are we circling the toilet bowl or what?

10/2/2019 4:59:34 PM

NyM410
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Real rage growth continues to befuddle me.

How can we have the tightest job market in decades and record low unemployment yet the everyday worker is seeing ZERO material real wage growth.

Jobs report probably confirms October and December 25 bps cuts based on the data points the past few weeks. Second half of 2019 and all of 2020 is going to have really low GDP growth. 1.3-1.7%? Somewhere in that range?

[Edited on October 4, 2019 at 8:43 AM. Reason : X]

10/4/2019 8:42:38 AM

marko
Tom Joad
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lol RAGE GROWTH is up a billion percent

10/4/2019 10:11:10 AM

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