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 Message Boards » » QE4 is IMMINENT thread Page 1 [2], Prev  
TerdFerguson
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The ECB . . . .stumbling through the dark since 1998. The most slow, slow-motion disaster of all time!!!!

Can the US keep chugging (also slowly, but at least we're moving)???

3/10/2016 11:52:46 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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There will likely be an increase in the Fed rate tomorrow.

Apparently mortgage rates have already increased half a percentage point since October, due to flight from U.S. treasury bonds.

Does anyone know what would have initiated this flight, since it appears to have begun prior to the election?

12/13/2016 12:40:07 PM

TerdFerguson
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My guess is the Peter Schiff/ZeroHedge/[insert flavor of the week inflationista here] acolytes saw an upward trend in CPI and PCE and proceeded to shit their pants, because hyperinflation and a debt meltdown are always right around the corner!!!

12/13/2016 1:10:35 PM

Pupils DiL8t
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There's speculation that President Trump's fiscal stimulus could trigger inflation and stoke a rise in interest rates.

Any thoughts on how much inflation to expect and how high interest rates could increase in the near future?

[Edited on January 25, 2017 at 11:12 AM. Reason : ]

1/25/2017 11:12:30 AM

TerdFerguson
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Highly dependent on what his stimulus end up looking like, I'd say. If it's 75% tax breaks I wouldn't expect much unless it's just absolutely huge and cuts well beyond infrastructure.

If it's direct payment infrastructure spending, then yea, I'd say inflation picking up is absolutely a possibility, although I have no real way of speculating by how much.

Obviously there is also the real possibility of Trump policy affecting energy prices or prices on imported goods, which is kinda an unpredictable variable.

1/25/2017 12:03:59 PM

TerdFerguson
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Bump so we can talk about anything other than Trump

DAMMIT JANET


[Edited on March 16, 2017 at 8:11 AM. Reason : A whole 1%, look at us go!!!!!!!!!!!]

[Edited on March 16, 2017 at 8:12 AM. Reason : Headed for the stratosphere y'all ]

3/16/2017 8:10:01 AM

TerdFerguson
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WoooWoooo



Sky is the limit, we're taking off

3/31/2017 6:04:01 PM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/02/fed-limits-wells-fargos-growth-citing-consumer-abuses/302973002/

Where has this Janet Yellen been the last 4 years, dang. she coulda been crackin a lot of skulls.

2/3/2018 8:23:48 AM

TerdFerguson
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Ay-yo, mark it down that you heard it here first.

Fed Rate cuts starting in September or October. Continued cutting at random throughout 2020.

By the end of 2020 we will be damn close to a zero fed rate again and the QE conversations will be alive once again!!!

I pray the end of this cycle doesn't nut kick the country so hard that we get to QE, but I do think we will be damn close, both because the market has come to expect/rely on FED intervention and because this Powell guy seems easily manipulated by the president and political sphere.

7/11/2019 8:24:09 AM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-07-16/central-bankers-are-sick-of-rescuing-the-world-economy-alone

What a terrible look. Consider that:

-3/4 of these central bankers were beating the austerity drum 10 years ago when we REALLY could have used some stimulus.
-in the US case, we are running $1trillio/year deficits at the peak of a business cycle. You’re asking to expand the budget in that environment? We are in fiscal stimulus mode right now.

7/16/2019 5:16:15 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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So, about that inverted yield curve...





Quote :
"A shrinking gap between long- and short-dated yields suggests investors expect slower economic growth further out, higher interest rates in the near term to keep inflation in check, or limited rate hikes further out due to softening inflation pressures. Or a mix of all of the above.

An inverted curve, where long-dated yields are lower than short-dated ones, points to the Fed being forced to cut rates in the future."


https://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets-yieldcurve/column-in-defence-of-the-yield-curve-mcgeever-idUSL8N1U74PY

Quote :
"Yield curves normally slope upward as investors demand compensation for putting money at risk over longer periods of time. The willingness to accept lower yields on longer-dated assets than shorter-dated ones offer reflects the expectation that the longer-dated ones will produce higher returns over time as all yields decline, leaving holders of shorter-dated instruments to reinvest at lower rates when they mature."


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis

[Edited on August 14, 2019 at 11:34 AM. Reason : ]

8/14/2019 11:13:24 AM

TerdFerguson
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ItsHappening.gif

8/15/2019 5:57:34 AM

NyM410
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This 2/10 inversion is obviously indicative of a much slower growth economy than we’ve had but I’m not sure we are closing in on recession tbh. Real rates from 30-days to 30-years are negative. If this was caused by RISING real rates it’d be more worrisome and a better indicator.

That combined with a pretty strong job market and consumer and I would be surprised to see contraction in the next 4-6 quarters.

In any case fiscal stimulus and a tax cut in year 9 of an up-cycle was beyond parody and guy’s like Peter Navarro and Larry Kudlow shouldn’t be making decisions on a $5,000 brokerage account let alone be close advisors to a POTUS.

8/15/2019 7:46:45 AM

UJustWait84
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IDK if the job market is "strong" given the fact that a ton of people are working 2+ jobs just to make ends meet...

8/15/2019 11:45:02 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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^^^ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/458354-federal-analysis-economy-created-half-a-million-fewer-jobs-than-was-reported

8/22/2019 8:26:40 AM

NyM410
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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164910399910817797?s=21

Did... did President cat food brain actually think a run of the mill Powell speech in Jackson was an official Fed meeting? Did he think he was going to roll out and announce a 100 point rate cut??

8/23/2019 10:49:48 AM

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