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 Message Boards » » QE4 is IMMINENT thread Page 1 [2], Prev  
TerdFerguson
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The ECB . . . .stumbling through the dark since 1998. The most slow, slow-motion disaster of all time!!!!

Can the US keep chugging (also slowly, but at least we're moving)???

3/10/2016 11:52:46 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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There will likely be an increase in the Fed rate tomorrow.

Apparently mortgage rates have already increased half a percentage point since October, due to flight from U.S. treasury bonds.

Does anyone know what would have initiated this flight, since it appears to have begun prior to the election?

12/13/2016 12:40:07 PM

TerdFerguson
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My guess is the Peter Schiff/ZeroHedge/[insert flavor of the week inflationista here] acolytes saw an upward trend in CPI and PCE and proceeded to shit their pants, because hyperinflation and a debt meltdown are always right around the corner!!!

12/13/2016 1:10:35 PM

Pupils DiL8t
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There's speculation that President Trump's fiscal stimulus could trigger inflation and stoke a rise in interest rates.

Any thoughts on how much inflation to expect and how high interest rates could increase in the near future?

[Edited on January 25, 2017 at 11:12 AM. Reason : ]

1/25/2017 11:12:30 AM

TerdFerguson
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Highly dependent on what his stimulus end up looking like, I'd say. If it's 75% tax breaks I wouldn't expect much unless it's just absolutely huge and cuts well beyond infrastructure.

If it's direct payment infrastructure spending, then yea, I'd say inflation picking up is absolutely a possibility, although I have no real way of speculating by how much.

Obviously there is also the real possibility of Trump policy affecting energy prices or prices on imported goods, which is kinda an unpredictable variable.

1/25/2017 12:03:59 PM

TerdFerguson
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Bump so we can talk about anything other than Trump

DAMMIT JANET


[Edited on March 16, 2017 at 8:11 AM. Reason : A whole 1%, look at us go!!!!!!!!!!!]

[Edited on March 16, 2017 at 8:12 AM. Reason : Headed for the stratosphere y'all ]

3/16/2017 8:10:01 AM

TerdFerguson
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WoooWoooo



Sky is the limit, we're taking off

3/31/2017 6:04:01 PM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2018/02/02/fed-limits-wells-fargos-growth-citing-consumer-abuses/302973002/

Where has this Janet Yellen been the last 4 years, dang. she coulda been crackin a lot of skulls.

2/3/2018 8:23:48 AM

TerdFerguson
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Ay-yo, mark it down that you heard it here first.

Fed Rate cuts starting in September or October. Continued cutting at random throughout 2020.

By the end of 2020 we will be damn close to a zero fed rate again and the QE conversations will be alive once again!!!

I pray the end of this cycle doesn't nut kick the country so hard that we get to QE, but I do think we will be damn close, both because the market has come to expect/rely on FED intervention and because this Powell guy seems easily manipulated by the president and political sphere.

7/11/2019 8:24:09 AM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-07-16/central-bankers-are-sick-of-rescuing-the-world-economy-alone

What a terrible look. Consider that:

-3/4 of these central bankers were beating the austerity drum 10 years ago when we REALLY could have used some stimulus.
-in the US case, we are running $1trillio/year deficits at the peak of a business cycle. You’re asking to expand the budget in that environment? We are in fiscal stimulus mode right now.

7/16/2019 5:16:15 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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So, about that inverted yield curve...





Quote :
"A shrinking gap between long- and short-dated yields suggests investors expect slower economic growth further out, higher interest rates in the near term to keep inflation in check, or limited rate hikes further out due to softening inflation pressures. Or a mix of all of the above.

An inverted curve, where long-dated yields are lower than short-dated ones, points to the Fed being forced to cut rates in the future."


https://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets-yieldcurve/column-in-defence-of-the-yield-curve-mcgeever-idUSL8N1U74PY

Quote :
"Yield curves normally slope upward as investors demand compensation for putting money at risk over longer periods of time. The willingness to accept lower yields on longer-dated assets than shorter-dated ones offer reflects the expectation that the longer-dated ones will produce higher returns over time as all yields decline, leaving holders of shorter-dated instruments to reinvest at lower rates when they mature."


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis

[Edited on August 14, 2019 at 11:34 AM. Reason : ]

8/14/2019 11:13:24 AM

TerdFerguson
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ItsHappening.gif

8/15/2019 5:57:34 AM

NyM410
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This 2/10 inversion is obviously indicative of a much slower growth economy than we’ve had but I’m not sure we are closing in on recession tbh. Real rates from 30-days to 30-years are negative. If this was caused by RISING real rates it’d be more worrisome and a better indicator.

That combined with a pretty strong job market and consumer and I would be surprised to see contraction in the next 4-6 quarters.

In any case fiscal stimulus and a tax cut in year 9 of an up-cycle was beyond parody and guy’s like Peter Navarro and Larry Kudlow shouldn’t be making decisions on a $5,000 brokerage account let alone be close advisors to a POTUS.

8/15/2019 7:46:45 AM

UJustWait84
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IDK if the job market is "strong" given the fact that a ton of people are working 2+ jobs just to make ends meet...

8/15/2019 11:45:02 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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^^^ https://thehill.com/policy/finance/458354-federal-analysis-economy-created-half-a-million-fewer-jobs-than-was-reported

8/22/2019 8:26:40 AM

NyM410
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https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1164910399910817797?s=21

Did... did President cat food brain actually think a run of the mill Powell speech in Jackson was an official Fed meeting? Did he think he was going to roll out and announce a 100 point rate cut??

8/23/2019 10:49:48 AM

TerdFerguson
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https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/17/business/overnight-lending-rate-spike-ny-fed/index.html

Quote :
"On Tuesday morning, the NY Fed launched what's called an "overnight repo operation," during which the central bank attempts to ease pressure in markets by purchasing Treasuries and other securities. The goal is to pump money into the system to keep borrowing costs from creeping above the Fed's target range ."


So.....basically small scale QE.

Quote :
"As a longer-term solution, Barclays and Bank of America expect the Fed to begin expanding its balance sheet again by purchasing Treasuries. The Fed's bond buying program, known as quantitative easing, or QE, was launched during the financial crisis to keep borrowing costs extremely low. As the economy healed, the Fed reversed course and started to shrink its balance sheet.

Cabana doesn't think the Fed will call this QE, though he said it will work the same way. The central bank will grow its balance sheet by purchasing Treasuries."


Bankers laying the groundwork!! Soon.

9/17/2019 9:12:08 PM

NyM410
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Lol. Trump will continue to say “best economy ever” as the Fed is acting like we are already contracting. Too bad the general public doesn’t understand monetary policy.

I can’t help but think the constant ratfucking by wormbrain has had an effect.

9/17/2019 10:07:15 PM

horosho
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Nobody knows what QE is and the media won't explain it clearly. They are all using figuritive language to describe what happened because people would be rioting in the streets if they understood. No one is asking how we're going to pay for that.

Quote :
"A crack just emerged in the financial markets:"

CNN showed a picture of the market's facade like an actual crack in the building lmao
Quote :
"The New York branch of the U.S. Federal Reserve will step in and offer billions more in liquidity to gummed-up intrabank lending markets Wednesday, following the first intervention in more than a decade only yesterday, as a worrying spike in overnight borrowing costs continues to perplex investors and complicate today's Fed rate decision."

trash trash trash

9/18/2019 12:29:10 PM

TerdFerguson
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So my prediction above said either Sept or Oct rate cuts, with continued cutting through 2020 until we are basically at the lower bound at the end of 2020 (at which point QE4 would crank up).

Seems like an Oct rate cut is probable.

What is really strange is this continuing Repo business. Some are calling it QE-mini, others are calling it business as usual (no.)

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-10-01/fed-has-no-choice-but-to-tackle-both-repo-and-recession

Quote :
"Analysts have been expecting that Fed policy makers would probably announce a plan on Oct. 30, after their two-day meeting, to expand the size of the central bank’s balance sheet. The questions would simply have been by how much and whether Chair Jerome Powell could stress that the move wasn’t a return to post-crisis quantitative easing but rather was “organic” growth in line with Fed tradition. It would have been a tough tightrope act to begin with, particularly given Powell’s tendency to speak off the cuff and the fact that he played down the repo market’s mayhem after the Fed’s most recent decision."


Sure Jan, sure.


Quote :
"Powell has admitted that the central bank has no playbook for dealing with a prolonged trade war. So far, his answer has been to drop interest rates time and again. This time might be trickier: He might have to both announce another cut and reveal that the Fed will increase the size of its balance sheet just a few months after shrinking it — and avoid spooking markets at the same time."


Pretty strong “we don’t know wut the fuck we’re doin’” vibe from the FED.


Are we circling the toilet bowl or what?

10/2/2019 4:59:34 PM

NyM410
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Real rage growth continues to befuddle me.

How can we have the tightest job market in decades and record low unemployment yet the everyday worker is seeing ZERO material real wage growth.

Jobs report probably confirms October and December 25 bps cuts based on the data points the past few weeks. Second half of 2019 and all of 2020 is going to have really low GDP growth. 1.3-1.7%? Somewhere in that range?

[Edited on October 4, 2019 at 8:43 AM. Reason : X]

10/4/2019 8:42:38 AM

marko
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lol RAGE GROWTH is up a billion percent

10/4/2019 10:11:10 AM

TerdFerguson
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FED is dumping $60Billion per month into treasuries at what is supposedly the peak of a business cycle.

You have to go back to 2009-2013, the depths of the recession, to find the FED pouring that kinda money into the market (was ~$75Billion back then). If they continue with their plan to buy at that rate right up until Q2 of 2020 at which point they will set an all time high in the FED's balance sheet, over $4.5Trillion.

I actually tend toward aggressive FED actions when economic conditions call for it, but this is officially insane.

11/26/2019 8:14:26 AM

NyM410
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Negative real rates in year 10 of an expansion.

Man, Trump always gets what he wants for some reason. Also, how is this going to help disrupted supply chains and demand? Do we think a bunch of corporations flush with cash are going to fall over themselves to invest because they can borrow cheaper?

3/3/2020 10:13:16 AM

Pupils DiL8t
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Quote :
"Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
The Federal Reserve is cutting but must further ease and, most importantly, come into line with other countries/competitors. We are not playing on a level field. Not fair to USA. It is finally time for the Federal Reserve to LEAD. More easing and cutting!

17.1K
10:51 AM - Mar 3, 2020"


MORE EASING AND CUTTING!!

[Edited on March 3, 2020 at 11:32 AM. Reason : ]

3/3/2020 11:31:50 AM

moron
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markets down again today.

My company put out travel restrictions on coronavirus today, new cases popping up all over the place, conferences being cancelled left and right. I don't see how cheaper lending is going to open chinese factories back up or facilitate all the collaboration knowledge economy needs to function.

3/3/2020 5:32:03 PM

NyM410
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Lol, the jobs number and revisions were absurdly robust and here we are with the market pricing in literally FOUR more 25 bps rate cuts before Jan 2021 on top of the recent 50 bps cut. Utter insanity.

3/6/2020 8:36:26 AM

TerdFerguson
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I’m legit embarrassed I gave any credence to people arguing non-intervention from the FED in the 2008-2014 time frame. Their (nearly) complete silence regarding the FED’s current path proves just how much their arguments were in bad faith and purely political.

3/6/2020 9:06:25 AM

NyM410
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I mean all politics is hypocritical to a degree but the tea party faction is worse than most in more ways then I can count.

And lol at the adopted father of that movement, Rick Santelli, begging coronavirus to step up and kill some old folks to get this market rolling again.

[Edited on March 6, 2020 at 9:15 AM. Reason : X]

3/6/2020 9:14:30 AM

qntmfred
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Fed just pumped $1.5T into the banking system

[Edited on March 12, 2020 at 2:50 PM. Reason : I'm sure it'll trickle down to normal Americans tho]

3/12/2020 2:50:16 PM

horosho
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how are we going to pay for this?

3/12/2020 2:50:34 PM

marko
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YOU TELL US

YOU BAT 1000 AROUND HERE

3/12/2020 2:51:49 PM

daaave
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the cost to cancel student debt is $1.6 trillion

3/12/2020 3:07:59 PM

Geppetto
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^ what’s your point. The Fed is a private entity, not the government. Are you suggesting that private companies should erase everyone’s student loans, regardless of how frugal they were with spending and managing that money?

3/12/2020 5:28:10 PM

daaave
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https://berniesanders.com/issues/how-does-bernie-pay-his-major-plans/

3/12/2020 5:35:36 PM

moron
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^^ Yes, as much of it as they can.

3/12/2020 7:10:46 PM

Geppetto
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What’s the rationale for that?

3/12/2020 8:48:11 PM

moron
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Wages/salaries of kids vs parents at age 30 is at records low and dropping. This is despite the younger generation being more educated. Eliminating this debt would be a stimulus across many different metrics, and at least some percentage of this debt is people who were only paying minimum and the amount they owe after interest is absurd— it’s debt indentured servitude.

As a society we should minimize as much as possible what we force young people to saddle themselves with just to become productive members of society— this includes at least education and childcare.

For the record I have no student loan debt, because in the early 2000s NCSU was very manageable. At current tuition levels It would be a huge burden on a family like mine if I were a high school student graduating today, even considering my parents both had advanced degrees.

3/12/2020 9:56:44 PM

LoneSnark
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Quote :
"How can we have the tightest job market in decades and record low unemployment yet the everyday worker is seeing ZERO material real wage growth."

Easy, healthcare costs continue to skyrocket, eating up all the worker compensation growth. We NEED to fix the ongoing devastation being wrought by the nation's horribly organized healthcare industry.

Quote :
"As a society we should minimize as much as possible what we force young people to saddle themselves with just to become productive members of society"

Those with college degrees on average earn more than the average citizen. It is morally abhorrent to tax the poor to pay for the college degrees of the comparatively wealthy. I'd much rather take whatever money you wanted to give to the upper middle class to pay their debts and instead use it to eliminate the regressive payroll tax.

[Edited on March 13, 2020 at 11:40 AM. Reason : .,.]

3/13/2020 11:21:35 AM

Geppetto
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^ said it much more eloquently than myself.

I agree that we need to resolve the burden of higher education in this country but wiping the existing college debt for people is not the way to solve it. All accrue college debt differently (e.g. they stay in a luxury apartment, go on expensive spring breaks to keep up with their classmates, take 5 years to get a low paying degree, etc) and wiping out that debt doesn't allow people to grow by managing the consequences of some of their decisions.

When I had my student loans, I saved every penny I could, avoided dining out, did not take the big group trips, etc because I wanted to minimize the future cost to me. I also aggressively paid them off by paying it off as I went from whatever income could bring in while working during school and directed all money I could toward them when I graduated. As someone who did that, I know I came out stronger and better for it.

If part of the benefit is stimulus across many different metrics, why stop at student loans? Why not pay off the mortgages of people in their 30s and kids, so they can redirect that money to saving for their kids college, foregoing those children of loans? Where is your line?

3/13/2020 11:48:55 AM

NyM410
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Rates but 100 bps.

Man the Fed is on tilt. Monetary policy (especially lower rates) can’t help what is going on here.

3/15/2020 5:04:27 PM

Pupils DiL8t
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So, the latest interest rate cut landed with a thud. What recourse does the Fed have now, as the market continues to drop?

3/16/2020 10:32:19 AM

bubster5041
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Don't get hit by the falling debris?

3/16/2020 10:42:09 AM

horosho
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they could cut more. people keeping saying its at 0 but its not at 0.0

3/16/2020 10:42:16 AM

TerdFerguson
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I was really blown away by how quickly the FED started dumping cash into the system, really even before COVID-19 took off. Compared to 2008-2015 when it was so conservative and slow, they jumped in with a quickness this time.

I thought it might just be the current board, but more likely we just live in a brave new world where central bank manipulation is going to be way more prevalent.

But maybe FED economists saw something WAY bad out there on the horizon, the global corporate debt bubble?:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/business/coronavirus-corporate-debt.html

Did they jump in so readily because they know the alternative is going to be globally cascading corporate bankruptcies?

[Edited on March 26, 2020 at 6:27 AM. Reason : Fed announced Monday it will directly finance corporate debt for the first time]

3/26/2020 6:19:06 AM

Geppetto
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that's my guess. they tendency is not to act and I think one thing they learned from post great recession is that they need to go big early when they can.

3/26/2020 8:08:41 AM

NyM410
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Well, some variant of MMT is about to get a look. Those unemployment claims are going to require MASSIVE rescue funds for ordinary Americans and there is no way to do it via offsets.

It’s a good time, post-Covid to do some long overdue infrastructure work..

3/26/2020 8:45:11 AM

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