Imagine what it could've been if Hermine got its act together 1 day earlier.

9/1/2016 8:21:55 PM

how much rain we gon get?

9/2/2016 8:50:29 AM

3.8 inches. Crabtree creek alert

9/2/2016 9:37:45 AM

Looks like some of the school systems are releasing early........

9/2/2016 10:49:42 AM

Weather Underground is saying 2.27" today, nothing tomorrow. That would be nice.

9/2/2016 11:14:06 AM

Yeah for Raleigh I think this sets up fine we need the rain and wont end up getting way too much like areas south and east may.

9/2/2016 11:29:18 AM

Carteret County update....it's been raining allllll daaaaaay looooooong. It's been raining pretty steady and there is a lot of water on the roads.

Not much wind right now...I wouldn't even consider it breezy.

Supposedly the most is going to happen in the early morning, debating on if I want to stay up and drink and wait to see what happens or just going to bed like normal and wake up in the morning to see the results.

9/2/2016 4:38:46 PM

I'd probably do some mix of the two

9/2/2016 4:54:33 PM

Half of Carolina Beach = No Power

9/2/2016 8:33:47 PM

Hampton roads update: This dumb storm woke me up. Then I woke my neighbors upstairs up by opening my shades (they squeak and have noisy pull-chain bearings). Think I'll make an effort to silence these shades so they don't kill me next time I do this. Also it has been pretty whatever besides all the god damn noise. We're going to get some severe flooding in about 6 hours at high tide.

9/3/2016 5:04:12 AM

The Sun... It lives!

Got 3 inches outside of Clayton area. Bit of wind, a few limbs down.

Love how some of the models have it doing loops off of the Jersey coastline.

9/3/2016 11:57:58 AM

Bump for Matthew

[Edited on September 29, 2016 at 7:38 AM. Reason : Could have a pretty zany path]

9/29/2016 7:38:23 AM

With how much rain we got overnight around the area we definitely don't need any tropical systems rolling through

9/29/2016 11:49:18 AM

why am i worried about something in the Carib?

9/29/2016 4:26:21 PM

Because after that turn to the north its possible it heads this way? Still looking like it will stay off the coast and head out to sea but still a lot of uncertainty.

9/30/2016 8:06:11 AM

Category 5 now

10/1/2016 12:59:17 AM

Man, a few of those tracks will absolutely fuck our shit up.

[Edited on October 1, 2016 at 5:40 PM. Reason : a]

10/1/2016 5:39:15 PM

both Euro & GFS have it hugging the coast before turning out to sea

looking like a potential Fri/Sat impact IF the track shifts west

10/2/2016 3:08:44 PM

When will we know the track of this monster?

10/3/2016 8:56:10 AM

upper trough a bit delayed in the 12z GFS run...storm comes further west and makes landfall near Southport early Saturday morning before turning NE across the eastern counties



[Edited on October 3, 2016 at 12:25 PM. Reason : ]

10/3/2016 12:22:14 PM

Damn...any more west and this will put a real wrench in my weekend plans to go to Asheville.

10/3/2016 12:44:08 PM

still days out but all things pointing toward NC area impacted...sunday?

10/3/2016 12:45:50 PM

^^think you're good unless it takes a Hugo like push through SC

^GFS and Canadian models currently show Saturday impacts, though they might be a bit fast with the storm. A lingering impact into Sunday is certainly in play, especially for NE-NC/OBX. Of course this is based on the latest model runs, so it could easily take an eastward shift again.

[Edited on October 3, 2016 at 12:53 PM. Reason : ]

10/3/2016 12:52:25 PM

What's causing the shift late in the track East? And will the amount of that shift depend on a front or anything moving into the area at that time?

10/3/2016 1:28:37 PM

Yeah, there is a front that's making the storm turn east during this particular model run. This latest run of the GFS had the front delayed a bit compared to the previous run 6 hrs before, hence the landfall in eastern NC.

BTW, the Canadian model run takes it between Wilmington/Morehead, while the UKMET has it near Hilton Head. Still waiting on the EURO model to come out.

So yeah, still a wide spread in where it can go in 3-5 days

10/3/2016 1:38:37 PM

12z Euro is a bit more west, but still keeps it out to sea

10/3/2016 2:31:00 PM

so its toggling on SC to No NC landfall at all..

As we get closer Im sure that position gets more defined...just waiting to see what time it takes for that front to move over then?

10/3/2016 3:27:09 PM

well, FL is even in play...basically the entire east coast needs to be on watch

10/3/2016 3:31:21 PM

dammit

guess i'll go fill up my gas jugs tomorrow and test run the generator

10/3/2016 8:35:49 PM

Good. If you do all that preparation, it will veer sharply to the east on Friday morning.

10/3/2016 10:05:58 PM

i hope you're right

[Edited on October 3, 2016 at 10:10 PM. Reason : latest prediction pretty much shows the eye going over my house]

10/3/2016 10:09:40 PM

Where are you? I'm in Greenville, so I'm starting to plan too.

10/3/2016 10:27:30 PM

if it gets to looking real bad, maybe i'll preemptively cut down a tree. that would surely push it out to sea.

[Edited on October 3, 2016 at 10:28 PM. Reason : Pender County]

10/3/2016 10:28:07 PM

Ha ha, yes! Get to choppin'!

10/3/2016 11:01:36 PM

Lots of trees will come down if its a strong 2. Bradford pears will split.

Power outages too most likely, it seems slow moving for now, it may be a flood threat for much of Wilmington more than anything.

10/4/2016 12:04:25 AM

track keeps inching west

10/4/2016 7:57:30 AM

Charleston people are freaking out.

10/4/2016 10:54:55 AM

LOL, well coastal impacts are just about certain (increasing wave heights, erosion).

The latest (12z) GFS run is a bit slower with the storm movement. IT still takes a similar track NHC currently (as of 11am) has out but doesn't actually makes landfall anywhere. Looks like the slower movement allows for the upper trough to move in and deflect it. Should get a better idea of storm movement once it clears Cuba tonight.

10/4/2016 12:38:31 PM

The ensemble members generate plenty of land-falling cases.

10/4/2016 1:01:01 PM

^didn't see those at the time of the post, sorry!

10/4/2016 1:02:02 PM

LOL. Both the GFS and NAM have ensemble cases that circle the storm around to hit the Bahamas twice. How much would that suck?!

10/4/2016 1:06:46 PM

Thursday marks 4,000 days exactly since the US was last hit by a major hurricane.

Looks like there's a significant chance that the streak will end there.

10/4/2016 1:19:03 PM

How often does this stuff update?

10/4/2016 1:45:53 PM

every 3 hours I believe.

10/4/2016 2:12:18 PM

Yep, at 2, 5, 8, 11.

10/4/2016 2:31:34 PM

Most computer models only update every 6 hours. 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. As such, there are usually only significant updates from the Hurricane Center every 6 hours. The interim updates are usually just tweaks based on new data from satellites, radar, etc... The ensemble model runs - critical for assessing model uncertainty - may only be every 12 hours. Don't quote me on that.

10/4/2016 3:39:55 PM

Quote :

"10/4/2016 2:31:34 PM darkone (\/) (;,,, (\/) 10496 Posts user info edit post Most computer models only update every 6 hours. 00, 06, 12, and 18 UTC. As such, there are usually only significant updates from the Hurricane Center every 6 hours. The interim updates are usually just tweaks based on new data from satellites, radar, etc... The ensemble model runs - critical for assessing model uncertainty - may only be every 12 hours. "

Sorry i had to...

10/4/2016 5:33:44 PM

So now I've heard guys talking about the storm surge with the winds and the exact way they can blow up into Wilmington and drown that town they think its going to be the starting point for flooding.

How would they have come to this? I assume the surge can go up rivers with enough wind?

10/4/2016 8:46:21 PM

10/4/2016 9:12:50 PM

^^there are parts of downtown wilmington that flood a couple times a year just due to lunar tides

10/4/2016 9:16:20 PM