Quote :

"http://twitter.com/studentactivism/status/1219713255939215361 NEW: Elizabeth Warren just announced plans for an independent DoJ task force to investigate and prosecute Trump administration crimes. This is such a big deal."

https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/after-trump

this is very good

1/21/2020 5:27:42 PM

Recent polling shows there is a not insignificant chance Biden wins Iowa/NH/Nevada/SC and this is over before it starts. And it also shows a not insignificant chance that Sanders wins Iowa/NH and he instantly becomes the true front runner.

1/21/2020 5:44:54 PM

The attacks are going to get worse against Bernie in the next couple weeks. The only way to solidify chances is for the 2nd place progressive to drop out and endorse the first, hopefully swinging most of their followers that direction.

1/21/2020 6:08:08 PM

I’m a big fan of these measures:
https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/after-trump

1/22/2020 12:19:39 AM

Take a look at 3 posts above yours

1/22/2020 6:46:44 AM

National CNN Poll
(Change since last month)

Sanders 27% (+7)
Biden 24% (-2)
Warren 14% (-2)
Buttigieg 11% (+3)
Bloomberg 5% (-)
Klobuchar 4% (+1)
Yang 4% (+1)
Steyer 2% (+1)


White
Sanders 24%
Biden 22%
Buttigieg 18%
Warren 13%
Bloomberg 6%
Klobuchar 6%

Non-white
Sanders 30%
Biden 27%
Warren 16%
Yang 6%
Bloomberg 5%
Buttigieg 4%
http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2020/images/01/22/rel1b.-.2020.pdf

surveyusa poll
Sanders 52 (+9)
Trump 43

Biden 50 (+7)
Trump 43

Bloomberg 49 (+7)
Trump 42

Buttigieg 47 (+3)
Trump 44

Warren 48 (+3)
Trump 45

Yang 46% (+2)
Trump 44%

Steyer 44%
Trump 44%

Trump 45% (+2)
Klobuchar 43%

Trump 44% (+5)
Gabbard 39%
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=a98a06be-92cb-493f-a04a-b14c72c8c0e9

1/22/2020 10:35:43 AM

Poor Bernie, nobody likes him

1/22/2020 10:42:48 AM

watched this last night. thought it was pretty good, and showed a slightly different side of the candidates:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/13/the-weekly/democratic-endorsement-2020.html

1/22/2020 10:49:31 AM

That post left out a few polls from today and there has been a lot of noise and contradictory polling last few days but I think it’s safe to say Biden and Bernie are the two most realistic winners and Bernie has a legitimate upward trajectory right now.

Also, it doesn’t matter who you pick, electability shouldn’t be considered - vote who you want based on policy. They all poll remarkably well in head to heads with Trump.

1/22/2020 11:52:40 AM

Quote :

"NEW early-state tracking: Biden: 26% (-1) Sanders: 23% (+4) Steyer: 15% Warren: 12% Buttigieg: 11% (+2) Yang: 4% Bloomberg: 3% (-2) Gabbard: 3%"

https://twitter.com/MorningConsult/status/1219938507864649728?s=20

1/22/2020 12:34:48 PM

Monmouth too but I think that’s an outlier in that it’s essentially the only poll that saw Sanders decline. When you have 5-6 polls with him surging and one that shows the opposite.. well, toss.

[Edited on January 22, 2020 at 12:55 PM. Reason : Actually it had Sanders +2 from last but had Biden +4. So not compete toss but lerma]

1/22/2020 12:54:55 PM

lol
Tulsi Gabbard sues Hillary Clinton for $50m over 'Russian asset' remark
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jan/22/tulsi-gabbard-hillary-clinton-russian-asset-defamation-lawsuit

1/22/2020 3:32:22 PM

Maybe they can sue each other so much that neither has time to practice political activity

1/22/2020 8:05:11 PM

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1220336691539599361?s=21

Bloomberg is Bloomberg but it kind of makes me laugh that the thought of a dude being able to do something Trump could never afford to do (lighting money on fire to troll) drives Donald crazy.

You know he hates Bloomberg for being an actual rich businessman and not a fraud.

[Edited on January 23, 2020 at 8:46 AM. Reason : Lol tulsi was on Fox and Friends this morning trolling Dems again]

1/23/2020 8:45:44 AM

sanders is +14 from last month in NH

1/23/2020 9:30:36 AM

That’s a very high-quality poll and is consistent with his increase in national polling. Iowa is tough but he can be the favorite very easily in two weeks time.

On an unrelated note, what do we think of the team Trump signal boosting of Sanders. I don’t like it and it obviously isn’t genuine. Is it more they want to go against him for contrast (socialists v capitalists) or is it worry and trying to get Dems to have backlash towards him because Trump “supports him.”

1/23/2020 2:00:05 PM

Warren and Buttigieg are both sitting above the 15% threshold in Iowa but not by much.

1/23/2020 2:41:12 PM

What threshold do you mean? nevermind

And Warren was 2nd at 18% in the last Iowa poll

[Edited on January 23, 2020 at 2:58 PM. Reason : E]

1/23/2020 2:57:08 PM

I never would have thought so but sanders might pull this off

1/23/2020 3:41:14 PM

The DNC will never let that happen.

1/23/2020 3:45:42 PM

So the data indicates sanders is "winning" but anyone who thinks it means he might get the nomination has no understanding of the rules or process. He would need to poll at ~50% for it to indicate winning the nomination and you have to consider that he isn't competing with only Biden because people who drop out will donate their delegates to the candidate they endorse.

That is why so many people are running. Buttigeig and Klobuchar will rack up a ton of delegates for Biden in the states where he is weak while Biden will rack up a ton of delegates in the deep south. Bernie needs to do better than the 3 of them combined in order to "win". The wildcards are clearly Yang, Steyer, and Warren who could go either way with their endorsements but even all that would be unlikely to be enough.

Even if we give Bernie Steyer and Warren's %s, the percentage of votes is not proportional to the percentage of delegates. There are funky rules in many states but basically its WTA for each congressional district which means Bernie has a ceiling in population centers that tend to have more leftists. He wiill win these places like Asheville by a large margin but his delegates will top out. He will lose places like Charlotte by a small margin but all of those delegates will go to Biden.

There will be a ton of unpolled people voting for Bernie at the last minute but we can't estimate how big the turnout will be and that is sure to be diminished by his absence caused by the trial (which is why Trump was impeached at the time he was in the first place). The democrats are not dumb. They've planned this all out 4 years in advance and multiple layers of contingencies are in place. Its going to take a miracle for Bernie to "win" even if he gets the most votes.

Even if Bernie wins with 40something % of the vote, the superdelegates will elevate Biden to the nomination. He doesn't have to just win, he has to beat everyone else combined. He could end up with 49% of the delegates and still lose.

Bernie+Warren+Steyer+Yang+Tulsi=44%
Biden+ Buttigeig+Klobuchar+=41%

So even with that optimistic scenario, Biden still wins by superdelegates.

The real hope is that after Biden struggles in the first few states, the people in the south will start to switch from Biden to Bernie but how likely is that given the media? Kamala and Booker already being out is promising because they were more likely alternatives in a Biden crash than Pete or Amy in the South.

[Edited on January 23, 2020 at 4:08 PM. Reason : there will be much more fallout over this primary than there was in 2016]

[Edited on January 23, 2020 at 4:09 PM. Reason : largely because people don't know the rules and just assume its a simple democratic process]

[Edited on January 23, 2020 at 4:09 PM. Reason : the masses will learn the rules when biden gets the nomination and they will be pissed]

1/23/2020 4:05:20 PM

You need 15% to be awarded any delegates at all. So if Biden wins 25%, Bernie wins 35%, and the rest is divided between the final 40%, the delegates are divided proportionally to Biden and Bernie.

It's going to come down to Biden and Bernie. There could be 15%+ spoilers in some states, but most likely not enough to sway the vote significantly in any direction.

[Edited on January 23, 2020 at 4:30 PM. Reason : .]

1/23/2020 4:28:03 PM

lol at bernie sharing the joe rogan endorsement

oof

1/24/2020 9:51:21 AM

I honestly don’t mind the endorsement itself but yeah he could have shown some more discretion than a campaign video given some of his, um, views (dude has way too much in common with guys like Stefan Molyneux and Alex Jones for me).

That said the freakout coming from some of the establishment isn’t useful or normal. It takes a coalition to beat Trump and not everyone will be “pure.” It’s not like Rogan is an avowed nazi our concern trolling (like Tucker Carlson).

1/24/2020 10:16:36 AM

the oof isn't rogan endorsing sanders, that's fine, the oof was bernie retweeting out the endorsement thus associating himself with rogan

[Edited on January 24, 2020 at 10:37 AM. Reason : basically an unnecessary own-goal ]

1/24/2020 10:26:40 AM

Idk if it really is a problem. Rogan has the biggest podcast in the US and reaches a wide spanning reactionary audience with no consistent ideology. Bernie will get nothing done in office unless we build a big tent, and these people are easily flipped.

1/24/2020 10:48:08 AM

lol

https://twitter.com/feraljokes/status/1220590072195665920

1/24/2020 11:13:03 AM

^^ the tent gets bigger without retweeting the endorsement and tying yourself to his baggage

1/24/2020 11:20:37 AM

I was looking at some of Joe Rogan's tweets after the endorsement and saw a surprising amount of men's suffrage advocacy in the replies.

That being said, I don't follow his podcast, so I'm not sure if he's an advocate for that or not; maybe it shouldn't have been all that surprising.

[Edited on January 24, 2020 at 11:27 AM. Reason : ]

1/24/2020 11:23:21 AM

I mildy tried to Google and failed, but what are "mens suffrage advocates" pushing for?

Also should this convo go in the chit chat Rogan thread???

1/24/2020 11:31:06 AM

Creepy freaks who think white dudes are the most persecuted subset of people on the planet.

Stefan Molyneux is one and his tweets are... whoooo boy.

I look at Bernie using this as a campaign thing similarly to a centrist Dem cozying up to someone like David Frum. They are assholes and bad people but if you can steal their votes and not implement their policy more power to you.

1/24/2020 11:34:19 AM

Either way, everyone begged to be on Rogan's show, so it's going to be difficult to attack him for it.

r/joerogan



[Edited on January 24, 2020 at 11:40 AM. Reason : .]

1/24/2020 11:36:49 AM

^^ah ok, same as Men's Rights Activists then, hadn't ever heard it as "suffrage". Thanks.

1/24/2020 12:39:53 PM

Yang got a 7% ABC/WaPo national poll, 5% Fox News national poll, 5% NBC News/Marist NH poll, and a 5% NH poll so he'll be back in the February 7 debate

[Edited on January 26, 2020 at 9:13 AM. Reason : and another]


[Edited on January 26, 2020 at 9:20 AM. Reason : and another]

1/26/2020 8:57:26 AM

^^^ as someone who doesn’t think it’s a misstep by Bernie to do this.... do we have any evidence but a crazy persons (Joe Rogan) word that others “begged?”

1/26/2020 10:29:57 AM

Idk, Joe Rogan is many things, but I don't think he's a liar.

1/26/2020 3:05:00 PM

nate silvers current projection through the early states and super tuesday has biden in the lead with sanders second in SC, TX, NC, VA, TN, AL, OK, AR, A.S.. Sanders is leading NH, NV, CA, MN, CO, UT, ME, VT. MA is close with Sanders having the edge, and IA is close with Biden having the edge

silvers projects for delegate averages after early states and super tuesday is:
Biden: 550
Sanders: 489.8
Buttigieg: 165.3
Warren: 230.8
Klobuchar: 11.2

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primary-forecast/
(not endorsing silvers projection, just wanted to save it somewhere to see how it tracked through the early primaries)

i would expect the top 4 to still be running through super tuesday. (klobuchar's delegates came from MN, a super tuesday state so who knows)

1/27/2020 10:40:35 AM

Bloomberg and Steyer have spent almost half a billion combined on campaign ads

https://twitter.com/davidwright_cnn/status/1221821556516630528?s=21

[Edited on January 27, 2020 at 1:06 PM. Reason : .]

1/27/2020 1:06:23 PM

I got this text while volunteering and thought it was pretty awesome.

Quote :

"I'll be out of town that weekend for my husband's birthday but I'll donate $25 since I can't help out. I do want to tell you that my 21 year old son, who used to be a Trump supporter & had an "Info Wars" sticker on his truck (we were horrified but thank God it was a phase) heard Bernie on Joe Rogan & the interview was very powerful for him. It gave him a totally new perspective & he's voting for Bernie in 2020. Thought you might like to know. Have a great night!! "

1/27/2020 2:04:58 PM

I continue to find it really very fascinating how much success Steyer and Bloomberg can get when they put their financial resources to work

Morning Consult poll out this morning shows Steyer at 17% in early states and Bloomberg at 13% for Super Tuesday states (vs only 3% for Steyer where he hasn't really spent money yet).

1/28/2020 9:29:04 AM

Quote :

"Joe Rogan is like some barbarian Khan from the steppes that took an interest in intellectual things and his show is basically him bringing slightly nervous scholars and magicians to come before him to explain how the world works "glasses man, you explain to Joe why sky big, and how tree grow" but he will also believe almost anything you tell him, and only recently (in the past few years) does he clap back like "Tiny hat man say otherwise, do you lie to Joe? Tiny hat man say fat not bad for you, that sugar is enemy, so which is truth? Joe thinks you are wrong" and people just nervously go "oh-oh ok h-Haha yah I guess so" "Joe spend many moons on horseback and training with bow and sword, but joe also wonder why skyfire rise from mountains every morning, you will explain this to Joe.""

1/28/2020 12:38:59 PM

A DNC national committee chair is running attack ads on Bernie.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1222265865795751941?s=21

1/28/2020 5:33:03 PM

Why does Joe Biden keep losing his cool with voters? https://t.co/GQZ5xhdoPU

[Edited on January 29, 2020 at 10:41 AM. Reason : Guardian article linked ]

1/29/2020 10:40:42 AM

Normal sign of dementia starting.

1/29/2020 11:07:21 AM

https://twitter.com/nprinskeep/status/1222502385022656512?s=21

Quote :

" In our talk on @MorningEdition, @ewarren frames Medicare for All, eliminating private insurance, as an eventual aspiration rather than a current plan."

[Edited on January 29, 2020 at 11:20 AM. Reason : .]

1/29/2020 11:19:50 AM

https://twitter.com/janeosanders/status/1221982357500153856?s=21

Why? Why? Why? Why?

God damn it, he needs all the African American support he can get to prevent Biden from running up the totals in the southern states.

This is just not helpful at all and I can NOT believe she is signal boosting this idiot.

[Edited on January 29, 2020 at 11:55 AM. Reason : And don’t even try to explain this away. It doesn’t change my opinion of Bernie but it’s an own goal]

1/29/2020 11:55:18 AM

^^ I'm fine with this. I'd rather the next president prioritize climate change over eliminating all private health insurance.

^ What's the significance of this? I don't know who Matt Orfalea is.

1/29/2020 12:12:56 PM

A few months ago he was hired for like 12 hours by the Sanders campaign and then fired immediately when people found a really bad MLK spoof he did.

He’s basically Carpe Donktum but from the sort of left.

I admit you have to be extremely online to know who he is and what Jane likes or boosts does not change my opinion of Bernie but it isn’t helpful in the least for a guy who is going to need every bit of African American support he can get in the primary to win.

1/29/2020 12:20:20 PM

^^^
Voters don't know who that guy is nor do they care

^^
It's not an issue of prioritization, it's just that her policy isn't progressive. Take it at face value.

[Edited on January 29, 2020 at 12:22 PM. Reason : .]

1/29/2020 12:22:39 PM

You can assume that and that’s fine... and he certainly doesn’t offend me.

But signal boosting that can’t HELP.

1/29/2020 12:24:35 PM