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 Message Boards » » Winter Weather 2016/2017 Page [1] 2, Next  
TKE-Teg
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I see ice in the forecast next week.

Being a week out, I'm sure it'll turn into nothing. But let the hype for this season commence!

12/12/2016 2:27:12 PM

BigMan157
Suspended
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oh you mean the days i took off from work?

yeah, that seems like how it'd work

12/12/2016 2:36:46 PM

wdprice3
FAKE NEWS
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It's NC.

Will be rain.

12/13/2016 4:59:41 PM

KeB
All American
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Freezing rain pre dawn on Saturday?

12/14/2016 11:02:16 AM

wdprice3
FAKE NEWS
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Close to freezing + rain pre dawn on Saturday

12/14/2016 11:52:21 AM

dtownral
All American
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i recently serviced my generator, so nothing will happen

12/14/2016 12:01:10 PM

synapse
play so hard
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Your roads will be fine.

12/14/2016 1:15:54 PM

TKE-Teg
All American
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My Integra might be in the shop, leaving me with only a summer tire shod midengine RWD car. Thus, plan for the worst

12/14/2016 3:19:45 PM

Str8BacardiL
************
41204 Posts
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I got city water now.

Get a least one hot shower after a power outage.

12/14/2016 4:42:46 PM

wdprice3
FAKE NEWS
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Whadda tell ya? Cold damn rain.

12/15/2016 6:17:33 PM

dmspack
All American
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they've moved it east a bit here.

http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

12/16/2016 3:23:59 PM

darkone
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10768 Posts
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The Raleigh NWS office is testing a new winter forecast page with experimental probabilistic snowfall products.
http://www.weather.gov/rah/winter

12/16/2016 3:41:47 PM

dtownral
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these roads ain't fine:
https://streamable.com/jgle4

12/17/2016 2:12:09 PM

KeB
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Quote :
"Freezing rain pre dawn on Saturday?

"


Where do I collect my prize?

12/17/2016 3:34:06 PM

dtownral
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when we getting winter weather?

12/29/2016 12:00:34 PM

Doss2k
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Some talk about some next weekend possibly but as we all should know by now models for winter weather more than about 24 hours out aren't exactly reliable around here.

[Edited on December 30, 2016 at 7:57 AM. Reason : .]

12/30/2016 7:56:47 AM

RattlerRyan
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Thursday-Saturday next week, 100% chance of snow and ice

How do I know? It's my day to pack up and move to the mountains. This is gonna suck

12/30/2016 11:27:28 AM

synapse
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Don't worry, your roads are gonna be fine.

12/30/2016 11:46:46 AM

dtownral
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i went long on the roads meme on r/memeeconomy

12/30/2016 12:03:47 PM

dtownral
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Quote :
""INTRIGUING" IS ALL I CAN SAY ABOUT LATE NEXT WEEK
Here are a couple of reasons to not get too excited about snow/ice talk for late next week. First, it's a week out, and you know how that goes. To this day, I still wish we did a 5-day forecast and not a 7-day, but one has to pick their battles :-). Second, there is a reason the mean annual snowfall at RDU is 6.1". It takes a special set of meteorological variables to come together in just the right fashion to pull it off. Any one parameter missing? You're goose is cooked. Even the "normal" snowfall numbers are misleading. Take January, climatologically our snowiest month with an average of 2.9". For you statistic buffs, the 50th percentile is .7". That means half the time we see .7" or less in January, and .7" or more the other half. A few active Januarys drive the mean upward, but long time residents of North Carolina know the real truth. So what about this thing late next week? It is true that a large mass of arctic air will take over much of the U.S. and that a very strong frontal zone will set up over the southeast part of the country. The more thermal contrast you have, the more potential there is for at the very least waves of low pressure to form, and at the most, major cyclones to develop.You don't need a major storm with abnormally low pressures to get abundant amounts of precipitation. All you need is a moisture source, a mechanism to make the air rise, and of course cold air if your desire is snow or ice. The one thing that bothers me about this potential event next week is the positioning of the Arctic High pressure area supplying the cold air. It's forecast to be in the Plains and not over the northeast U.S. Surface features are a reflection of what's going on in the upper atmosphere, and our most prolific winter storms here do not occur with a High over the Plains. In this scenario, the cold air has to make it over the mountains, and usually does so in a modified state. A High over the Northeast provides a direct discharge of cold arctic air into the piedmont with no orographic barriers in the way. Does this mean we have no chance for wintry weather next week? Absolutely not! It's the 'ole "wait and see" game playing out once again. Just don't want you snow lovers to get your hopes up for nothing. Better to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised than to turn low probability into high expectation, only to be disappointed once again. And for you snow haters out there, all I can say is, the odds are always in your favor!"

-Greg Fishel

12/30/2016 3:00:22 PM

wdprice3
FAKE NEWS
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dude broke out mean and median. most of his followers' heads just asploded.

12/30/2016 3:09:48 PM

GrimReap3r
All American
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Cold rain next weekend

1/2/2017 1:30:11 PM

JT3bucky
All American
22279 Posts
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I'm shocked Fishel isn't blowing this thing up and saying we will get a foot...he loves drama and snow.

We sat beside him at some football games, super nice guy but loves snow and ratings drive his paycheck so...

I expect nothing.

1/2/2017 8:47:56 PM

RattlerRyan
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Actually in the wral article tonight he says the euro model says 2+ feet of snow

1/2/2017 8:52:33 PM

wdprice3
FAKE NEWS
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^^Actually, Greg is the opposite of that.

1/3/2017 7:55:17 AM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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ITS GOING TO HAPPEN?

1/3/2017 7:55:30 AM

Doss2k
All American
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Slightly higher confidence this morning in getting something but I would wait until about Thursday afternoon before I made any plans around it.

1/3/2017 8:05:12 AM

LudaChris
All American
6709 Posts
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BUY ALL THE MILK AND BEER!

I still expect nothing but cold ass rain.

1/3/2017 8:56:13 AM

TKE-Teg
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forecast has been trending favorably.

1/4/2017 9:30:33 AM

wdprice3
FAKE NEWS
45066 Posts
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post teh maps

1/4/2017 9:37:31 AM

KeB
All American
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As per WXrisk

Quote :
"OVERNIGHT UPDATE -- 0Z WED EURO MODEL STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF NC VA --

the new 0z wed EURO Shows several inches of snow for charlotte Greensboro Raleigh Elizabeth city fayetteville ALL OF HAMPPON ROADS Richmond Lynchburg Danville Emporia all of the Middle Peninsula all of the Northern neck into Freedysburg Charlottesville DCA all of lower VA / MD eastern shore.

if correct this would be MAJOR SNOWSTORM for eastern VA / NC and the DELMARVA . The North edge of the snow now reaches into DC BAL PHL NYC

The other two models of importance the British and the Canadian model did shift somewhat to the east early this Wednesday morning. They still have accumulating snow of several inches across central and Eastern North Carolina and central and Eastern Virginia and into lower Maryland Eastern shore. I do NOT consider this to be a significant change given that the event is still more than three days out... this is what I would call modeled variance .

Models continue show temperatures falling Saturday morning for a 20s. Ths means that the snow ratio is are not going to be 10:1 to 13 :1 or 14:1 . This implies that the actual final snow amounts when the event and on may be somewhat higher than what most forecasts and the model data are currently depicting."


1/4/2017 9:43:13 AM

JP
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God damn it KeB

1/4/2017 9:51:40 AM

TKE-Teg
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1/4/2017 12:12:47 PM

dtownral
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Isn't wxrisk the fake guy?

1/4/2017 12:25:05 PM

JP
All American
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more fake than not....I believe we had this discussion last season

Quote :
"Brad Panovich ?@wxbrad How Facebook treats the past 15 runs of the GFS model. #snOMG"


1/4/2017 12:33:02 PM

darkone
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^ That's hilarious.

1/4/2017 1:17:09 PM

dtownral
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Quote :
"more fake than not....I believe we had this discussion last season"


thanks, yeah i know someone was discussed but i can never remember which one is he.

I like @RaleighWX

1/4/2017 1:34:27 PM

KeB
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The local news mets have finally given in and said it was going to snow.

In 3 days WRAL went from a high of 37 on Saturday to a high of 28.

1/5/2017 9:40:11 AM

darkone
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Raleigh WFO is calling for 5 inches in central Wake as of this morning.

1/5/2017 10:00:43 AM

KeB
All American
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Per Allan Huffman

Quote :
"Prepare for this snow to be around a while. For instance the ECMWF has RDU go below freezing early Sat am, and not above again till Tues pm."
.

There may not be a commute on Monday morning at all.

IBT my boss will fire me if I don't come in to work..

1/5/2017 10:07:37 AM

dmspack
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http://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

updated as of 5AM today.

luckily, as of now it seems like signifcant freezing rain (leading to power outages) is not a likely scenario.

1/5/2017 11:01:18 AM

TKE-Teg
All American
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I'm already planning to work from home Monday.

Unfortunately I'll be stuck in my neighborhood all weekend as my car with all season tires is in the shop till Monday/Tuesday. Timing for that is perfect as always

1/5/2017 11:07:13 AM

maxxxpower
New Recruit
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Seeing models at like 8 inches and it was 60 degrees 12 hours ago this weather is starting to wear me out man.

people in Texas (hot) and NY (cold) like to brag about their extremes but can't the swings be just as bad?

1/5/2017 12:27:34 PM

TKE-Teg
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Yeah sometimes. But unless you have a job where you're outside 75% (or more) of the time, I really don't see how it matters much. Maybe it bothers people with weak immune systems, but I don't see how it's a measurable stress on the body.

1/5/2017 12:48:17 PM

maxxxpower
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[quote]Yeah sometimes. But unless you have a job where you're outside 75% (or more) of the time, I really don't see how it matters much. Maybe it bothers people with weak immune systems, but I don't see how it's a measurable stress on the body.[\quote]

True but just the psychological stress of keeping winter/summer clothes at DEFCON 5 at all times is bad enough

1/5/2017 12:52:24 PM

TKE-Teg
All American
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It's NC so I thought people never packed up their summer clothes?

I have a big walk-in closest, so I never pack/unpack clothes for any seasons.

1/5/2017 1:43:22 PM

wdprice3
FAKE NEWS
45066 Posts
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What's this mess Fischel is posting about? Increasing chance of snow on Sunday?

3/6/2017 4:40:22 PM

darkone
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10768 Posts
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Wut? NWS currently has Raleigh with a low of 45 Saturday and 40 Sunday.

3/6/2017 5:02:27 PM

JT3bucky
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3/7/2017 1:37:43 AM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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My phone is currently forecasting 7-10 inches in Oxford on sunday.

GO HOME YOU ARE DRUNK

3/7/2017 8:06:32 AM

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