I always keep my propane in the garage. You'll smell even a tiny leak. If a house fire gets bad enough for the tank to start relieving pressure, then the house is already fubar anyway.

9/11/2018 12:15:29 PM

it looks like the storm projection is slowing down, that would make it better for our area but worse for the coast and eastern part of the state, right?

9/11/2018 12:27:30 PM

^SE part of the state, sandhills down through SC and across the coast from about Charleston to EI.

9/11/2018 12:33:21 PM

Darkone - I looked more into it. 2000W would be a bit taxing on the average car alternator but 500-1000 should be relatively easy. My little GMC Terrain has something like 130-150 amp alternator. High performance alternators can exceed 175A. Gotta have some good heatsinks and cooling on the DC/AC converter but now it makes a lot more sense. I think I'm getting something around 500-1000 to run some low end electronics and maybe a floor fan if it becomes miserably hot in a prolonged power outage.

9/11/2018 12:36:27 PM

which would be better for us (less rain, lower wind gusts), right?

this morning i was planning an exhaustive search for a new chainsaw this evening, but with the latest forecasts i'm wondering if i still need it

9/11/2018 12:38:12 PM

Quote :

"12:32 p.m.: Gov. Cooper is speaking live, warning residents about the severity of the storm. "This storm is a monster," he said. "It is extremely life threatening and dangerous." He has ordered mandatory evacuations for residents along the barrier islands."

9/11/2018 12:42:49 PM

Quote :

"which would be better for us (less rain, lower wind gusts), right?"

I'm always looking out for number 1. Sorry to the coast, but i want to be ok too

9/11/2018 12:55:20 PM

Don't even try to go exchange/fill a propane tank now. They are not fine.

9/11/2018 1:31:23 PM

[Quote]What're y'all doing with your gas grills? From what I can see, there's not a great solution. You either have something outside in the storm, or something inside that could be a leak or a risk in a fire.[/quote]

Put it right up next to your house and if you can anchor it to anything, do that.

9/11/2018 1:52:29 PM

Guys, there's no need to worry

https://www.indyweek.com/news/archives/2018/09/11/dont-worry-guys-pat-robertsons-got-hurricane-florence-totally-under-control

9/11/2018 2:11:10 PM

welp looks like the beach house my grandfather bought in 1975 at holden beach is basically done for. Going to take a miracle at this point. The surge is already starting to show.

9/11/2018 2:39:33 PM

WCPSS Early Release Thursday and Cancelled Friday

9/11/2018 2:42:05 PM

We sold our family house on Holden Beach in May, so that it’s looking like a pretty good deal at the moment.

That said, I am not seeing anything that suggests it will be more than a shit ton of rain and 35 mph winds once it hits Raleigh. I know there is more to the state fair in Raleigh, but I’m more focused on our situation. Water does not seem at risk. Power, maybe if low hanging trees have fallen limbs or get tangled, or if saturated soil causes larger old trees to fall, but nothing massively catastrophic.

Am I missing something?

9/11/2018 2:45:28 PM

The biggest concern is the shit-ton of rain. It's going to stall over ENC and maybe Raleigh for about three days. That's a lot of rain and a big problem.

9/11/2018 2:49:01 PM

Quote :

" an average Feb/March weekend storm. "

9/11/2018 2:52:22 PM

Quote :

"Am I missing something?"

Yes.

9/11/2018 3:05:12 PM

Quote :

"That said, I am not seeing anything that suggests it will be more than a shit ton of rain and 35 mph winds once it hits Raleigh."

Raleigh will see more than 35 mph winds.

9/11/2018 3:11:52 PM

lol if it followed a loop like this

9/11/2018 3:25:30 PM

People at work are saying they saw 50 inches of rain on TWC wtf? Please tell me that's a joke.

9/11/2018 3:28:37 PM

It is a joke. Sounds like they lack reading comprehension or math skills. Possibly both.

9/11/2018 3:30:50 PM

Better be b/c someone else said 42 inches on here in the mountain area and posted a legit looking model. I'm gonna stop looking I think. That's Noah's Ark deadly shit.

9/11/2018 3:32:39 PM

single models are not forecasts

9/11/2018 3:42:20 PM

Somebody tell that to the TWW idiots on the coast who are staying there.

9/11/2018 4:01:39 PM

9/11/2018 4:07:12 PM

Quote :

"this morning i was planning an exhaustive search for a new chainsaw this evening"

All I've seen around most of downtown up to Wake Forest was electric ones left on shelves.

9/11/2018 4:08:43 PM

Not even hurricane status.

9/11/2018 4:28:11 PM

What are the odds those with city water lose their water service during the storm or in the aftermath, especially in the triangle? Gotta be stupid low right? Maybe higher for those out east where flooding could impact service?

9/11/2018 4:35:08 PM

Low, but I have a few gallons in the closet anyway.

9/11/2018 4:41:58 PM

Good luck trying to find water anywhere now (or propane)

I'm gonna fill up a bunch of water bottles and containters and the tubs with tap water before the storm, just in case

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 4:48 PM. Reason : ]

9/11/2018 4:47:15 PM

That updated NHS tho

9/11/2018 4:54:14 PM

^^ I'm actually driving south on 95 now, passing Philly atm, so I can buy anything I want I figure as long as I stop by Richmond I'll be ok.

But I won't buy much...I highly doubt we lose water, but I will have a few gallons on hand to drink, and will fill up shit tomorrow to flush with etc.

9/11/2018 4:58:19 PM

I know it can always swing back around, but at this point with it trending South all day by all models - though some more than others - if it were to follow the middle of the forecast or on the south side of the cone, Raleigh won't see much more than a fairly steady wind and a couple squalls.

9/11/2018 5:23:17 PM

I can't post it from here but see another showing 30+ in Raleigh

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 5:28 PM. Reason : jj]

9/11/2018 5:28:01 PM

I don't get how the Euro model can be so different that the others. Its either the other models barely taking into account the high pressure system in the North, or the Euro is giving it too much weight. Why can't these fuckers get together and figure this out?

9/11/2018 6:02:31 PM

Are there Twitter accounts that are worth following for analysis of updated models?

I had previously planned to drive up to Asheville, but the Euro model now seems to show Asheville getting more rain than Raleigh.

9/11/2018 6:05:54 PM

^^ I've read a few posts that the euro model isnt good for tropical cyclones but have no idea if that's true

^^^^ where are you seeing a change, as of an hour ago the national hurricane center still has basically the same projection

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 6:30 PM. Reason : .]

9/11/2018 6:27:46 PM

^the GFS isn't good for tropical systems. It doesn't tie in the various factors of the climate to make it all work together, which is why it's been the most incorrect for a lot of storms in the past several years. The Euro model has been showing the trends much more correct, and was the first to really show the high pulling in toward the coast to keep Florence from coming north.

There is a new version of the GFS that will work really well, but isn't used by everyone yet.

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 6:33 PM. Reason : models/systems, whatever.]

9/11/2018 6:32:31 PM

^^^Literally the only Twitter weather accounts worth following are NWSRaleigh and NHC_Atlantic. There's just way too many #wx grifters who post aspirational forecasts to generate hype.

9/11/2018 6:38:24 PM

^^^^ @RaleighWX, @EdValleeWx, @DTVaWeatherman ?all seem to be giving good, consistent information, just some a little more brash than others.

Yes, get official info from official sources, but they don't explain the differences or even show the various models.

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 6:41 PM. Reason : add another ^]

9/11/2018 6:39:44 PM

I was specifically thinking of RaleighWX as obnoxious but maybe other weather nerds like him.

9/11/2018 6:55:05 PM

Quote :

"dtownral: lol, my wife just asked if we should buy some fans in case we lose AC"

LOL, your roads are fine.

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 7:33 PM. Reason : totes a-okay, roads are good]

9/11/2018 7:32:22 PM

^^RaleighWX definitely has bad snow forecasts

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 7:57 PM. Reason : .]

9/11/2018 7:56:56 PM

Good thing we have all this rain to presoak the ground for us...

9/11/2018 8:18:27 PM

Can y'all imagine what this was like before early warning technology?

9/11/2018 9:08:26 PM

This thing is just reading like an even worse Floyd.

They're mandatory evac'ing Craven County (New Bern, Marine Corps base Cherry Point, Havelock, Vanceboro), which I started living there in 1989 and since then they've never done that.

I posted these on Facebook:

#1 rule to remember of North Carolina hurricanes: Wilmington always gets hit.
#2 rule to remember of North Carolina hurricanes: half of Highway 12 on the Outer Banks will get washed out to sea


[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 9:26 PM. Reason : .]

9/11/2018 9:21:52 PM

This Euro model is going fucking nuts right now.

9/11/2018 9:30:27 PM

I cannot understand why everyone thinks these phone apps are going to work if they dont have cell service. They literally say in the description that it needs either wifi or at least 2g. Like, if you have either of those, you dont need the app.

I have given up trying to tell people they are passing on fake information. No, hotels are not rquired by law to allow your pets and no dishwashers do not keep water out!

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 9:35 PM. Reason : ]

9/11/2018 9:30:59 PM

Where is all of that coming from? Stupid people on Facebook?

9/11/2018 9:48:58 PM

Quote :

"Can y'all imagine what this was like before early warning technology? "

Can you imagine when they had no clue when a storm even existed or where it was heading? The 1900 Galveston Hurricane and the Labor Day Storm in 1935 were almost complete surprises. What do you do when some monster like that rolls up on you and your just chilling at the beach with no notice of anything special happening that day.

9/11/2018 9:52:20 PM

^^Yeah, those memes that keep getting posted. I finally got to the point where I was like fine, y'all show up to a hotel and show your ass and not have a place to stay then come home to find that all your important documents are now muddy slush.

And now, they are all downloading an app. I specifically told one of my friends that it HAS to have the internet to work. She swears it doesn't. I showed the screenshot where it says "uses wifi or as low as 2g data"

Bless their hearts, but omg!


Also, it appears as if this storm might make landfall closer to the SC line and weaken to a Cat 3 possibly 2 before landfall. So that is awesome! Granted, we still don't know for sure, but I wouldn't be mad if that is what it did.



[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 10:14 PM. Reason : ]

9/11/2018 10:06:39 PM