The Abbott one?

I saw that study but there have been others that show much lower false readings. The NYU study was markedly higher than the other two so.. who knows.

5/13/2020 6:43:00 PM

yeah, was going off the NYU study, but wasn't peer reviewed so not sure

5/13/2020 6:51:15 PM

https://www.fda.gov/medical-devices/emergency-situations-medical-devices/eua-authorized-serology-test-performance

The worst performing rapid test has a positive predictive value of 48%. But there are a lot of other better tests.

5/14/2020 12:10:50 AM

things are moving so fast that people are understandably afraid and willing to believe in things that are more than likely only gonna be half measures

it’s going to take a national, apolitical HOLY SHIT moment to get a lot of people to finally realize how serious this is

and even that is unlikely. this is gonna last a lot longer than people think.

5/14/2020 12:35:55 AM

In want respect with regards to half-measures?

I think places like NC and Maryland, for instance, are doing a pretty good job of balancing the need for public safety and the need to resume some economic activity. Of course there are some ridiculous cases like bars in Wisconsin being packed last night because of a lame duck state Supreme Court ruling but those are generally outliers.

It is rather amazing how quickly we, as a country, have basically moved on from 100,000 deaths being thought about. Part of that is how easy the POTUS dismisses it and moves goalposts (and thus the media does as well) but it’s pretty weird. Like we changed are entire way of living without much complaining after 9/11 and now with 33x more deaths than that event we are just like... “well.”


[Edited on May 14, 2020 at 8:27 AM. Reason : X]

5/14/2020 8:24:22 AM

states rushing to re-open who haven’t met most or all of the criteria for safely re-opening

and even though it’s not necessarily a half-measure, a lot of the tests (mainly the antibody ones) have been rushed to production without approval and just aren’t very good. too much faith has been put into those and we aren’t even sure if having antibodies prevents you from getting it again

I don’t think people quite realize how much we’re still learning about it on a daily basis and some aren’t even aware of the horribly scary connection between this and kids getting inflammatory syndrome

5/14/2020 10:27:28 AM

^It's like every week we see a new side of this virus that hadn't shown itself before. Kawasakis in children? Come on. Blood clots for our age group? Geez. Covid toes - ugh.

No one has a good solution. We're facing the worst economic breakdown in 90 years. Even opening up won't instill confidence in most people to go out and act like they did before. I had to go to Lowes yesterday and I was pretty anxious about it. Not something I want to do often.

And I would love to get a relatively inexpensive antibody test. My dad hasn't seen his grandchildren in months, and when you have a toddler, months = basically a different child than when you saw them last. But I don't trust bringing him here if I might be an asymptomatic carrier.

5/14/2020 10:50:47 AM

Was thinking how ugly July 4th could get, what with all these “patriots” we have running around, if a second wave hits sometime in early to mid-June.

If you think there is a possibility of a bad second wave, what are you doing to prepare now for your family or community? We’ve slowly started rebuilding a stockpile of Lysol, and food to a degree, but that’s it. What else are people doing?

5/15/2020 5:56:22 AM

Unpopular (?) opinion here. I don’t think we’ll see a second “wave.” At least not until late fall or winter and that would be less number of infections and more hospital overload (think regular flu + leftover COVID cases).

I do think we’ll see a pretty consistent daily fatality rate of ~ 1,000 for a few months though. More a plateau and hold than a fall off and “retest” for lack of a better word.

https://twitter.com/powellnyt/status/1261126994814795776?s=21

Also, fucking de Blasio sucks. And Cuomo knew that and still dragged his feet deferring to an incompetent in his biggest city.

[Edited on May 15, 2020 at 7:22 AM. Reason : X]

5/15/2020 7:18:59 AM

^^We had enough lysol prior to this to last us (my wife is germ paranoid, we didn't panic-buy) and I was just now able to resupply our clorox wipes yesterday morning. I got in line at BJ's around 8:30 AM and went in to a half pallet of them. By the time I left the store 20 minutes later they were gone. Outside of that, I don't think we'll see an absolute shortage of non-ppe supplies. I mean you might have to go through some trouble to get stuff, like I did, but that's about it.

We have a vacation that is still scheduled at the end of July that we're still planning on taking, but it's at Oak Island which is already pretty spread out so I think we'll be ok. Other than maybe not sending my son back to daycare, or pulling him from daycare in the event of a second wave, we're not planning for anything.

5/15/2020 8:19:50 AM

Quote :

"It is rather amazing how quickly we, as a country, have basically moved on from 100,000 deaths being thought about. Part of that is how easy the POTUS dismisses it and moves goalposts (and thus the media does as well) but it’s pretty weird. Like we changed are entire way of living without much complaining after 9/11 and now with 33x more deaths than that event we are just like... “well.”"

That was going to happen if Clinton was president too. Governments the country over and internationally as well are looking at business numbers and their incoming tax projections and are scared shitless. Zerohedge (which is interesting to read at the moment because a lot of their stories are filed anonymously - and some are pro-lockdown and some are anti-lockdown) has had an article keeping a chart comparing job losses to number of deaths. Last number I saw was 320 people lost their jobs for every one person died of Covid-19. The current unemployment numbers have wiped out every single job created since the 2008 global financial crisis, and more.

9/11 as an event was over in a week once everything reopened and people got over the shock of it. This is something that's going to linger. It's kind of how real war operates, when I say real war I mean World War II or Korea or Vietnam, not the half-ass wars we've done the past 30 years where 3 people dying in a Humvee became national news. Our modern society is literally not built to operate in this kind of setting, and if we were ever in a real war, that would help our enemy a ton. I posted about this elsewhere when this was starting and told friends and family this: American society as it currently functions is not built to deal with the Covid-19 crisis. One person before this health crisis started would die in Houston for example and NBC would think that should make their national news broadcast. Local tragedy sure, but that's not worthy of the 320 million or so people that live in this country compared to everything else going on in the country and the world that affects them. Our scales of importance were entirely out of whack. The news has changed from this crisis because they had to. If they acted in this health crisis like they acted before this health crisis, our society would've literally broken down.

[Edited on May 15, 2020 at 10:32 AM. Reason : /]

5/15/2020 10:29:14 AM

Quote :

" Unpopular (?) opinion here. I don’t think we’ll see a second “wave.” At least not until late fall or winter and that would be less number of infections and more hospital overload (think regular flu + leftover COVID cases)."

Quote :

" Outside of that, I don't think we'll see an absolute shortage of non-ppe supplies. I mean you might have to go through some trouble to get stuff, like I did, but that's about it."

Y’all basing that on anything besides a hunch? Not trying to be combative, my prediction of a mid-June wave is based mostly on a hunch. And yeah, I do think there’s a possibility it’s bad enough that logistics will be screwed up such that some food items/household supplies might see shortages.




^Modern society has evolved beyond treating human beings as throwaway (well to a degree, there are still instances where this isn’t the case and we could make progress). I have a hard time calling that weakness. Are people on ZeroHedge debating what an acceptable Death/Job loss ratio is?

Quick googling is telling me that, when doing cost-benefit studies, federal agencies set the value of a human life between $9 million and $6million. That’s like 200-250 median wage jobs per death.

[Edited on May 15, 2020 at 12:06 PM. Reason : .]

5/15/2020 12:05:43 PM

Wasn't Zero Hedge banned from Twitter for posting coronavirus misinformation?

While it would be difficult to estimate, wouldn't a better comparison be between jobs lost and lives saved from the economic shutdown, not jobs lost and lives lost from the economic shutdown?

5/15/2020 1:12:13 PM

^ about the possibility of the virus escaping from the Wuhan lab

^^ Humans are not throwaway, but there are risks in every decision every day. At one extreme end of this is no change in the functioning of society and who dies dies. At the other end is everyone stays indoors and is banned from leaving their house not even for things like groceries until the disease is eradicated from the earth. We're arguing about where we are in the middle.

[Edited on May 15, 2020 at 1:37 PM. Reason : .]

5/15/2020 1:26:33 PM

Speaking for me only, mine is a hunched based on what we are seeing in places like Texas. I honestly though the re-opening there would be a disaster. Massive uptick in new cases, deaths, etc. And while it has very slightly ticked up it was nothing as I expected. It is making me recalibrate a bit about my views.

Maybe I’m over-correcting and this virus will throw another loop at us. We’ll see..

5/15/2020 1:46:37 PM

^ I don't think anyone can say they know what's going to happen inside a 95% confidence interval, not even the experts. Epidemiologists and doctors are the most-educated on what could happen if we do action X, but they are also wrong more often than normal because this coronavirus is "novel" and they're learning as they go. The whole toxic shock Kawasaki-like disease that is all of a sudden hitting youths in New York City and they had a death from it in France has completely come from left field.



[Edited on May 15, 2020 at 1:52 PM. Reason : /]

5/15/2020 1:50:42 PM

Quote :

"At one extreme end of this is no change in the functioning of society and who dies dies."

I don't think that's one of the possibilities. I think it would be more accurate to say, "Who dies dies and we get all the consequences of that, as well". We're talking deaths in numbers that will absolutely change the functioning of society, whether you like/intend it or not.

5/15/2020 6:40:52 PM

Should we make a thread about the good things that have come from this virus?

- obviously, more time with family, if you like that sort of thing

- hopefully, the death knell of open offices where everybody just sits at tables. That was a dumb idea when google and those other Silicon Valley places came up with it, and I'm glad to see it go. I don't see how they can bring open offices back.

5/18/2020 9:44:22 AM

https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/intelligence-agencies-probe-hazardous-event-at-wuhan-lab

So apparently some athletes from Europe at the World Military Games in Wuhan in October experienced COVID-19 type symptoms?

5/18/2020 4:06:29 PM

^^ global economic depression is good for the climate

^ was reported on ZeroHedge going back to March

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&ei=dDzDXsH0C4Oo_Qbu97D4Dg&q=zerohedge+world+military+games&oq=zerohedge+world+military+gamees&gs_lcp=CgZwc3ktYWIQA1AAWABg3yxoAHAAeACAAQCIAQCSAQCYAQCqAQdnd3Mtd2l6&sclient=psy-ab&ved=0ahUKEwjB_s-J6b7pAhUDVN8KHe47DO8Q4dUDCAs&uact=5#spf=1589853307059

[Edited on May 18, 2020 at 9:57 PM. Reason : .]

5/18/2020 9:54:26 PM

^^^ yes

5/18/2020 10:24:24 PM

Quote :

"Unpopular (?) opinion here. I don’t think we’ll see a second “wave.” At least not until late fall or winter and that would be less number of infections and more hospital overload (think regular flu + leftover COVID cases). I do think we’ll see a pretty consistent daily fatality rate of ~ 1,000 for a few months though. More a plateau and hold than a fall off and “retest” for lack of a better word. "

I don't have much to back it up; I'd say it's more like "a hunch", for whatever that's worth...but I expect something like that, too.

5/19/2020 2:15:11 AM

This sucks

5/19/2020 6:59:46 AM

^
https://youtu.be/fTem0Q7Nk0Q

5/19/2020 7:46:53 AM

Sounds like Cooper tomorrow will announce phase 2, starting this weekend. Hair salons open, appointment only, masks required. Restaurants open with some formula to determine seating capacity.

5/19/2020 7:29:45 PM

While deaths are continuing to rise and will continue it does seem that we are seeking a real statistical slowing when looking at 7-day rolling averages. It remains to be seen if we can get and keep R below 1 but the early signs of re-opening have not significantly increased it. I’ll feel a lot more comfortable if we see 10-14 days of continued improvement, even if slight.

I really hope people continue to wear masks considering quite a few studies are showing even cloth masks can decrease transmission rates by up to 50-75%!

From a personal standpoint I’m not going to be comfortable dining in at a restaurant for some time.. but look forward to enjoying a beer or two at outdoor seating at some local breweries at non-peak times!

[Edited on May 19, 2020 at 8:14 PM. Reason : Can a chit chat mod edit that link? It’s screwing up the page]

5/19/2020 8:13:28 PM

Just grow a pair and BYOB in public.

5/19/2020 10:09:11 PM

Quote :

"Just grow a pair and BYOB in public. "

People should be allowed to drink in public. That law is fucking ridiculous and takes all of the funs and freedom out of a good Friday evening pregame.

5/19/2020 10:43:19 PM

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/05/cdc-and-states-are-misreporting-covid-19-test-data-pennsylvania-georgia-texas/611935/

This is ridiculous and just pure CDC incompetence.

Do we know what data NC is using? It doesn’t specifically mention our state.

5/21/2020 7:24:01 AM

^As I understand it, only the 4 states mentioned have admitted to combining them. But CDC guidance recommends combining them, so it seems likely NC has been following that guidance.

5/21/2020 8:11:20 AM

https://gizmodo.com/cdc-now-says-covid-19-may-not-spread-easily-on-surfaces-1843610400

5/24/2020 12:49:41 AM

certainly looks like we could be two weeks away from some really, really bad numbers

5/24/2020 6:35:27 PM

Are we, though? I’m skeptical.

Yeah, the anecdotal pictures from Ozarks and Ocean City are just absurd but they are major outliers. And at the least they are outside where transmission rate is quite a bit reduced.

I’m not a piece of shit like Alex Berensen or anything and I do think the people who partake in the above referenced scenarios are gigantic selfish assholes but most people are still behaving pretty responsible.

This is all still so new and novel but I hope I’m right and you’re wrong but the reality is neither of us know.

5/24/2020 6:48:15 PM

Remember when 100k Americans had not died of just the flu a few months ago?

5/24/2020 7:44:18 PM

Sort of. But we gotta get back to work.

5/24/2020 9:31:47 PM

This guy has a serious chance at a house or Senate seat

[Edited on May 25, 2020 at 6:27 PM. Reason : Roger pedacter]

5/25/2020 6:25:41 PM

USA: 100K
World: 350K

5/26/2020 2:49:59 PM

^so you think China has had less than 5k total COVID-19 deaths?

5/26/2020 3:05:55 PM

I want to know what shoot thinks about the "official" China death numbers.

5/26/2020 6:45:27 PM

What can I say? They have flattened the curve since March. Who knows what happens behind the curtain? And I have left that shit hole for a long long time. It looks foreign to me already.

5/26/2020 8:09:06 PM

Thanks, man!

5/26/2020 10:05:14 PM

Also it’s still way too early to make the assertion that the origin of virus was from the laboratory. CCP won’t allow you to enter the city so you don’t have enough evidence to show the world. It’s highly forbidden!

It could go through the same path like tiananmen massacre—- after several years even decades, the credentials will be disclosed eventually, so we need to be patient.

5/27/2020 9:07:06 AM

shoot, I am not Chinese, but I am not sure I can agree with your last point. The outside world knows about the massacre mostly because of the reporting of western news outlets in near real-time. CCP never disclosed the facts about that, and indeed works to scrub the internet of references to the event. We will be waiting a LONG time to get any real facts from CCP on virus origins and true death figures. We actually had a Chinese exchange teacher living with us in the US in 1989 for an English immersion program. He teaches English in Xian. So there is at least one Chinese who still knows about the massacre.

5/27/2020 10:54:37 AM

The massacre happened in 1989, when Communist China was still fairly "open". Now since they are experiencing the Great Depression like happening in US a century ago, probably they have no interests showing the West what they are doing and try to hide every mistake they are making like this pandemic.
So it's literally much harder to get first-hand facts of virus origin for the investigators. Remember in 1989, the soldiers seemed enjoying killing while the TV cameras faced them directly. They didn't hesitate to show how powerful the CCP army truly was, and obviously, they were totally evil like Nazi.

5/27/2020 11:17:38 AM

Good points. This is why I seek your counsel on these important affairs.

5/27/2020 11:39:10 AM

You talk to me like Trump, or my boss, lol.

5/27/2020 11:43:01 AM

Ouch. I don't think that's a compliment.

I can talk like Trump, though.

I have tons of Chinese friends. China is a great country with decades of proud history. President Xi is a very strong leader and we have a great relationship. The call was perfect. shoot pushes nothing but fake news about the great country of China, who will soon be buying many American agricultural products!

5/27/2020 12:04:46 PM

Quote :

"Good points. This is why I seek your counsel on these important affairs."

tbf he said he seeks your counsel. not that he keeps you around.

5/27/2020 12:05:41 PM

^^Rarely seeing a big fan of CCP here

5/27/2020 1:14:56 PM

Who dares question the wise and steady leadership of CCP? CCP numbar 1!!1

5/27/2020 1:27:53 PM