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stopdropnrol
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my performance numbers look great while my dollar values are in the dump. I figured maybe some one here would know this. Is the stated average rate of return corrected in anyway? for example the stopdropnrol500 is at 100, it tanks to 50. the next year it rebounds to the original price of 100. yr 1 ror =-50%, yr2 ror=100% , inception average ror =25%.

8/21/2019 8:52:09 PM

A Tanzarian
drip drip boom
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Wouldn't average rate of return be 0% in your example?

Sometimes they assume you're reinvesting dividends or some other scenario. You'll have to look at the fine print.

8/22/2019 12:03:17 AM

stopdropnrol
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That's kind of my question. Is the rate of return based on actual increase of dollar value or just % change?

8/22/2019 1:06:25 PM

A Tanzarian
drip drip boom
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It's a rate, so it's a percentage change.

Rate of return is normally a percentage change in share price over some period of time.

The rate of return you see in your portfolio -- i.e., the percentage change in value of your investment account -- will likely be different than the rate of return on the underlying shares. Your personal returns depend a lot on timing.

Using your example, if you invest all of your money at the beginning of the two years, you'll end up with zero return at the end (the same as the shares). But if you invest half at the beginning and half at the one year point, you'll end up with a 50% return in your account even though the rate of return on the underlying share over the two years is still zero. You can also imagine scenarios where your investment has negative returns and the held shares have positive returns.

Dividends and what you do with them can also cause differences between your actual returns and individual share returns.

8/22/2019 1:50:07 PM

NCSUMEB
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Average rate of return is different than CAGR, compounded annual growth rate. Many outlets use them interchangeably but I only look at CAGR ((ending value divided by beginning value) raised to the 1/n, -1) and they should of course state if divs are re invested.

If they don't mention it, then dividends should be considered reinvested. This is also a "glitch" when managers show the their large cap funds against the S&P over 5/10/15/20 years with their fund beating the S&P and having an asterisk and then at the bottom stating S&P divs aren't reinvested for the CAGR.

8/22/2019 3:31:41 PM

David0603
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You can't just add the averages together and divide by number of years. That's not how averages work.

8/22/2019 4:35:46 PM

stopdropnrol
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That's exactly how averages work but I see the point that it has to include the $ already invested for the next calculation. I guess my question was more simple than I thought. historic performance percentages are poor indicators of actual gains in value.is that fair to say?

8/24/2019 8:16:30 PM

David0603
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I don't know what you mean when you say "average rate of return"
Are you looking at returns since inception on a fund you bought 1-2 years ago?

8/26/2019 8:03:40 PM

stopdropnrol
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my example was over 1-2 years for simplification . my question was about how the numbers we traditionaly hear and believe are calculated.

9/10/2019 1:24:13 AM

A Tanzarian
drip drip boom
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rate_of_return#Mutual_fund_and_investment_company_returns

9/10/2019 2:24:26 PM

CaelNCSU
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Geometric mean?

9/11/2019 12:08:26 AM

moron
All American
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Does anyone follow wallstreetbets on reddit? by far the funniest message board on the internet...

1/30/2020 1:38:45 AM

1985
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lol yeah - those guys are insane.

But half of them just got rich of of tesla yolos

1/30/2020 8:14:58 PM

moron
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I had my finger on the trigger for tsla puts last week because it makes no sense

Glad I didn’t pull it though

1/31/2020 12:12:50 AM

theDuke866
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yeah no way am i betting against TSLA right now. I haven't gotten up the nerve to bet on them, either, but no way am I short TSLA.

2/2/2020 2:13:36 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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Got lucky on GE and TSLA calls last week. Was going to pick up some AMZN Thursday but ended up in the car all day.

GOOG reports on Monday afternoon. Expecting a pop, but my luck might be out.

2/2/2020 4:42:19 PM

moron
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Google down 4%

Tesla up almost 20% today
Has any stock ever shown exponential growth like this and held?

2/3/2020 6:01:45 PM

theDuke866
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NFLX. I made 10x my $ on it back about 10 years ago. I sold; it crashed. I thought “whew...times that well.” Then it promptly went up another 10x from where I sold it at.

2/3/2020 6:03:59 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-04/tesla-is-more-overbought-than-bitcoin-during-height-of-bubble

2/4/2020 11:14:06 AM

moron
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Today I learned:
Re Tesla and short squeeze
Quote :
" As stonks go up short sellers lose money, as stonks continue to go up shorts lose even more money, eventually the amount of money they lose is greater than their Personal Risk Tolerance and they have to buy back the stock to close their short position.

This buying to close their position creates more buyers in the market which drives the price up even more. Now the shorts who were just at the peak of their Personal Risk Tolerance have lost even more money and are like GUH because they're now out of their PRT so they start buying to close their position.

This becomes a self-reinforcing thing until all the shorts are ded. This is a short squeeze. The shorts are getting squeezed out of their position, them exiting their positions only drives the stock up.

Old matey potatey up above is saying that the amount of money that is short TSLA rn is equal to 20% of the company's float which is a lotta fkn money so there's still a lot of people that are yet to be squeezed out of their short position and therefore TSLA will continue to moon for a while yet.



tldr: Muskrat is pissing on short sellers and is not done yet. TSLA to the moon.

Also I missed out TSLA tendies cos I am weak and gay and didn't buy in"

2/4/2020 11:34:04 AM

moron
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For laughs I bought a single call at $1000 a few hours ago and it’s already up 10%

2/4/2020 1:28:19 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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Just sold to close a call for $335. Bought to open last Wednesday for $31.10.

2/4/2020 2:43:57 PM

moron
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2/4/2020 3:07:53 PM

1985
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Its fucking stupid. Ive got 28 shares @275 in my roth. probably going to unload them on friday since i think thats when most short contracts are expiring. This feels a lot like BTC, probably driven by the same rich teenagers.

2/4/2020 7:53:24 PM

1985
All American
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Congrats on your new car Mr. Joshua

2/4/2020 7:55:26 PM

moron
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^^ maybe my ignorance would help someone but I didn’t know you could trade options in a Roth IRA and haven’t set one up since average growth and being above the full contribution threshold didn’t seem worth it.

Definitely setting one up now to start YOLOing some money into options for tax free retirement

2/4/2020 9:21:14 PM

1985
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Oh no, ive just got 28 shares, not contracts just thinking the short squeeze will last through friday

2/4/2020 11:58:23 PM

CaelNCSU
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Quote :
"I had my finger on the trigger for tsla puts last week because it makes no sense"


The volatility is so high you cannot make money. Unless it does what it has done in the past few days and you make 10-20x on open. To get to that point you'd have lost many hundreds of thousands.

2/5/2020 2:48:22 AM

moron
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My TSLA call from yesterday obviously imploded but I bought a put this morning to soften the blow...

2/5/2020 1:56:34 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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Bought an 880 put at $77 yesterday near the top and sold this morning for $155.

Used gains to buy 2 $645 puts at $20. Just sold for $27 after a boring few hours.

2/5/2020 2:32:16 PM

moron
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I second guess myself way too much to pull moves like that... maybe I’ll have the balls one day

2/5/2020 2:43:36 PM

Money_Jones
Ohhh Farts
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Anyone remember all the talk about INO on here years ago?

3/6/2020 1:51:03 PM

Walter
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Anyone remember who recommended INO?

Thankfully I was dumb enough to hold my (fairly large) position all of these years and it looks like it's finally paying off.

3/6/2020 2:33:50 PM

Walter
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Regarding the ridiculous run-up today, I suspect something has been leaked...either they are getting a nice chunk of the $8 billion emergency funds, or their pre-clinical coronavirus vaccine results (which are supposed to be released any day now) are $$$.

3/6/2020 2:57:26 PM

Money_Jones
Ohhh Farts
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I had a relatively small position I’d been holding onto for years now, through the 4x reverse split, sold a chunk of it today at $15.61 for a nice little profit, still holding on to a small chunk

3/6/2020 3:44:00 PM

CaelNCSU
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Anyone done credit or debit spreads?

3/7/2020 8:04:47 AM

synapse
play so hard
59566 Posts
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I was really big into credit default swaps in the late 2000's.

3/7/2020 6:13:39 PM

horosho
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Thinking about buying travel stocks after the industry tanks even more this week. I think this upcoming week will be the roughest and probably the best opportunity to jump in. Anybody thinking they don't make it out of this alive? Feel like the risk is lower for the airlines which is why I put them higher. I'm just looking for long-term steals.

AAL
UAL
NCLH
RCL
CCL

ranked in that order. Any suggestions?

3/8/2020 9:37:52 PM

Walter
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INO up in the $17-20 range pre-market...should be an interesting day with oil and the rest of the market shitting the bed.

3/9/2020 8:32:57 AM

horosho
All American
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wrong thread

[Edited on March 10, 2020 at 6:52 PM. Reason : yikes]

3/10/2020 6:52:29 PM

moron
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32622 Posts
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Almost bought some VXX calls today, kicking myself now

3/11/2020 10:42:49 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
43825 Posts
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Bought SPY and DIA April puts yesterday and sold today. Bought SPY June puts with the proceeds.

Also bought a small number of SPY March calls today in case Trump threw out some kind of tax cut or bailout that could cause a short term pop tomorrow. So far that didn’t work out.

3/11/2020 11:42:15 PM

CaelNCSU
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Bought a bunch of BA and SPY credit and debit spreads. Wish I kept the BA puts until now. Sold last week.

3/11/2020 11:59:27 PM

synapse
play so hard
59566 Posts
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Who is still shorting Tesla?

3/12/2020 12:13:45 AM

moron
All American
32622 Posts
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Kind of nuts a $1.5T repurchase agreement from the fed barely caused a blip

3/12/2020 4:55:18 PM

horosho
All American
1878 Posts
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Just pulled the trigger on norwegian cruise line. See yall in like 2 years to check the price...

3/12/2020 6:41:49 PM

Flyin Ryan
All American
8224 Posts
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The Italian economy is about to go boom apparently:

Quote :
"Some lurid rumours floating around market that some large bank had an absolute disaster in their bond trading desk last week. Apparently a short of government bonds (long end)."


Quote :
"I'm highly concerned about Italy's banking sector: tourism to Italy has plummeted and if this pushes them into a sizable recession, loan delinquency is going to sky rocket and the banks are so poorly capitalised. The Italian budgetary position is so precarious at the moment that this extra fiscal hosing might seriously call into question Italian BTPs. Any rise in borrowing costs will be passed onto lendees and there are so many zombie firms and consumers in Italy that it could precede an almighty crisis in consumption and investment

Having already signed off the an Italian budget- in deep contravention of the EU's fiscal rules- I can see the ECB directly capitalising Italian banks in the not too distant future.

A European wide recession and I think we can seriously look again at Italy's exit from the Euro."

3/12/2020 9:42:32 PM

horosho
All American
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boom is not the right word. I think "bust" is what you meant.

3/12/2020 9:54:20 PM

Flyin Ryan
All American
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boom as in explode

3/12/2020 10:40:54 PM

horosho
All American
1878 Posts
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Just pulled the trigger on AAL

3/13/2020 12:06:26 PM

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