Looks like the season is getting started early this year w/ Subtropical Storm Alex. Only the 4th January tropical/subtropical storm since 1851 & first since 1978!

1/13/2016 5:22:44 PM

Better looking than the majority of storms we have seen the past few years

1/14/2016 8:57:58 AM

Now a hurricane!

1/14/2016 10:58:06 AM

that awkward moment when a hurricane hits greenland

1/14/2016 4:26:36 PM

That awkward moment when the Hurricane pulls a left 90* and says, "nah, not even I want to go to Greenland".

1/15/2016 8:59:04 AM

I'm not good with geometry but would that really be 90* at that latitude?

I'm not trying to be a dick, its just an interesting notion that a small turn might look sharp on a flat map.

1/15/2016 3:46:20 PM

bttt

5/30/2016 4:46:48 PM

1851 isn't that long ago

5/30/2016 4:51:38 PM

We back? Did that depression last wknd end up getting named Bonnie?

6/1/2016 4:45:03 PM

no...

sure didn't

6/1/2016 4:46:21 PM

um.... http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/BONNIE.shtml?

6/1/2016 5:52:03 PM

#3

6/7/2016 8:54:13 AM

Earl

8/3/2016 11:46:59 AM

unBelizeable

8/3/2016 1:50:18 PM

might see rain from it in a week or two, but probably not.

Right now is the prime time for them. Next 3-4 weeks and then its about done.

8/3/2016 5:15:40 PM

Peak season is mid september so there is a good 2.5 months left at least... officially 3 months.

8/4/2016 8:37:07 AM

Bttt

8/18/2016 9:46:54 PM

Invest 99L (Gaston?) looking good for development so far:

8/19/2016 8:41:28 AM

Models a few days ago had future Gaston hitting us as a cat 4 or so at the end of the month so will be watching at least

8/19/2016 8:55:40 AM

Yeah, seems like the GFS & Canadian models are on board. We'll see if that holds. Looks like the storm is moving through some upper level shear for now, so guessing it'll be slow to develop until it gets to the Leeward Islands.

8/19/2016 9:05:54 AM

the rain may help

8/19/2016 9:52:33 AM

Quote :

"Gaston hitting us as a cat 4"

DO WAT?

8/19/2016 10:03:05 AM

lol, this is why I refrained from that wording....way too early in the game

8/19/2016 11:22:35 AM

10+ day models mean nothing but fun to watch at least haha

8/19/2016 11:39:22 AM

Where you guys seeing these models? NHC has crap or Im looking in the wrong spots.

8/19/2016 2:35:44 PM

http://www.spaghettimodels.com/ is a great sight that I like to use....


Looks like NC is in the line of fire...


Also...looks like that thing off Florida could come for a visit...


Could they combine and become a.....


PERFECT STORM!?!?!?

[Edited on August 28, 2016 at 11:31 AM. Reason : ]

8/28/2016 11:27:11 AM

they aren't going to be anywhere near each other. in 72 hours one will be in the middle of the gulf of mexico while the other is zooming off to the ne atlantic.

[Edited on August 28, 2016 at 3:36 PM. Reason : k]

8/28/2016 3:35:41 PM

Why is everyone so certain 99L is not going to hit Texas?

That said Im waiting for it to pull the coti or ctci track and hit Raleigh.

8/29/2016 6:19:14 PM

I honestly wouldn't mind it. We need some damn rain.

(careful what you wish for )

8/30/2016 9:03:43 AM

wow, yall were basically right about the end of the month system

8/30/2016 4:13:07 PM

This shit is re-god damned-diculous. 2 years ago when I moved to Hawaii the big island was hit by a hurricane for the first time in 20+ years.

Now, I'm about to move back to the mainland and the week I'm trying to ship my dog to my parents and then fly back myself we're in the path of not one, but two hurricanes. I don't know if I'm going to be able to get out of here or if I'm going to end up waiting out storms again.

Fuck you weather, fuck you.

8/31/2016 1:58:05 AM

Track shifted west overnight. On a line to hit Wilmington from land, and if it shifts more will track right over Raleigh. If it does shift more west, will probably not remain a TS and will lose strength over land.

8/31/2016 9:54:15 AM

going to Manteo for a bachelor party this weekend. we also have a gulf stream charter reserved for Saturday. what do y'all think the chances of that happening are at this point?

8/31/2016 10:08:54 AM

Get ready for toilets to back up in the mall as the creek floods

[Edited on August 31, 2016 at 10:34 AM. Reason : .]

8/31/2016 10:33:53 AM

Wonder how much rain we realistically see here in Raleigh from this. I need a good few hours of some solid steady rain for my lawn.

8/31/2016 10:43:11 AM

Quote :

"going to Manteo for a bachelor party this weekend. we also have a gulf stream charter reserved for Saturday. what do y'all think the chances of that happening are at this point?"

weather should improve as day goes on, but those waves will be rough

8/31/2016 11:12:31 AM

don't drink too much the night / early morning before. you'll regret it.

8/31/2016 11:45:46 AM

yeah I'm not gonna drink at all. being hungover on a boat for 12 hours, especially in choppy waters sounds like my worst nightmare.

8/31/2016 2:43:39 PM

Track shifted again this afternoon now that they finally got a hurricane hunter in there (they didnt get any in yesterday for several reasons).

Predicted path right over Raleigh, at midday Saturday. So ncsuallday Might want to skip the beach trip.

Models are split on if its really is going to go over Raleigh, or still stay over Wilmington (as predicted this morning). Either way, this weekend is going to be a mess.

8/31/2016 5:06:24 PM

I wouldn't go off shore Saturday....

Here is the marine forecast....they are saying tropical storm conditions on Saturday....no way in hell I'd go out there
http://marine.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=344&y=61&site=mhx&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=344&map_y=61#.V8dqL5grLIU

There is a good chance the captain of the charter will cancel the trip anyway, so you won't have to decide

[Edited on August 31, 2016 at 7:38 PM. Reason : ]

8/31/2016 7:37:52 PM

Storm track has pushed back east, so Raleigh is all clear again.



[Edited on September 1, 2016 at 6:22 AM. Reason : ]

9/1/2016 6:20:59 AM

Saw some models yesterday that have it hitting the ridge off the northeast coast and doing a loop and coming back and hitting the OBX as a hurricane from the northeast haha

9/1/2016 8:22:10 AM

Quote :

"yeah I'm not gonna drink at all. being hungover on a boat for 12 hours, especially in choppy waters sounds like my worst nightmare."

Take Dramamine. This exact scenario happened to me back in July. Went out Friday night for bachelor party (didn't drink that much really) and had to be on the boat at 7 am. by 7:45 I was puking. I was miserable for the entire 9 hours. worst experience of my life. I had been out fishing before and I was fine. Take Dramamine.

9/1/2016 8:51:58 AM

^^ Possible. Ive not seen that but we had a TS hover over the OBX just before Floyd hit.

As erratic as this has been over last 36 hrs, I wouldnt trust any model for exact hit right now, other than its gonna hit NC somewhere on Saturday.

[Edited on September 1, 2016 at 9:09 AM. Reason : arrows]

9/1/2016 8:53:59 AM

Raleigh seems to be near the breaking point for heavy rain versus good rain. Tracks a little more west we may have some flooding issues stays east and problems will be mostly south and east of us. Looked like the models had moved back east again this morning which would be a good thing for us here. We need the rain but the 1-3" type not the 10" type haha

9/1/2016 9:04:03 AM

Marine forecast says 40 kts with 15 ft seas...you're not going fishing Saturday....sorry

9/1/2016 9:13:31 AM

Do y'all think we'd still be able to go Monday assuming we can get a charter?

Quote :

"his exact scenario happened to me back in July. Went out Friday night for bachelor party (didn't drink that much really) and had to be on the boat at 7 am. by 7:45 I was puking. I was miserable for the entire 9 hours. worst experience of my life."

haha yeah this is what I want to avoid. that sounds like a nightmare. I've heard plenty of horror stories - all revolving around bachelor parties. It's no biggie - I don't think any of us really plan on drinking for that reason but we are bringing dramamine even for the non-hangover related sea sickness.

honestly, I'm not sure why we don't just try to cancel the trip. it looks like we're going to be paying like $1800 to sit inside a beach house for a weekend during a major storm, and then if we can fish on Monday another $450 each to fish in what will probably still be really choppy water and then have to drive back to Raleigh right after.

9/1/2016 9:41:08 AM

welp, this rental agreement is iron clad. no getting out money back unless the place literally burns down. not even in a mandatory evacuation circumstance

9/1/2016 10:40:04 AM

May as well go have a hurricane drinking party then and just scrap the fishing plans. Looks to be strengthening definitely appears the hurricane streak for Florida is gonna come to an end tonight.

9/1/2016 11:05:48 AM

looks like that's what is going to happen. I just hope we don't lose power

9/1/2016 11:21:29 AM