5-1 we in

4-2 need to also win one ACCT game

3-3 need 2ACCT games

2-4 gotta win 3ACCT games

Etc.

2/11/2018 2:49:03 PM

theres no way you could know that at this point

2/11/2018 3:23:31 PM

You are right in fact there is no way anyone can ever know anything.

Shut it down!



It was my best guess on what we need to do to get in you huge tool.

[Edited on February 11, 2018 at 3:38 PM. Reason : .]

2/11/2018 3:37:49 PM

10-8 is a lock to get in tournament.

2/11/2018 4:59:20 PM

I posted this a few pages back and the odds of actually going down a little bit for 20 wins

 Odds To Make NCAA Tournament By Win Total
Total Wins	NCAA Bid%
25	100.0%
24	99.8%
23	95.6%
22	80.5%
21	44.0%
20	7.9%
19	0.4%
18	0.0%
OVERALL	14.8

2/11/2018 5:29:53 PM

that's on average though. for ACC teams its entirely different.

2/11/2018 9:36:37 PM

2/11/2018 9:53:31 PM

^haha

2/11/2018 10:40:02 PM

^^^what? That's specifically for nc state.

Am I misreading the site? I'm pretty sure they do more than just say, oh you know generally it's this amount.....

2/11/2018 10:57:44 PM

Yeah I'm pretty sure you're right. Like some maac team can't win 21 games and be in.

I guess that doesn't really matter how we get to 21 though, acc tournament + reg season seems doable. Currently it'd be us v Syracuse in the 8/9 game which would certainly be winnable before losing to uva

2/11/2018 11:56:38 PM

didn't see it was catered to us but I still disagree with the numbers. it's just too early to tell right now - so many scenarios. I still think that we sneak in if we get 20 including ACCT

2/12/2018 12:13:11 AM

I hope we don't have to find out but if we finish 9-9 with one acct win, it ain't happening.

At 9-9 we would best case scenario have 3 more who cares wins (bc, Wake, GT) and 3 more ok losses (Lou, Cuse, fsu). Then we are prob at best 7 seed, but it would be better if were 8, either way we play somebody from the bottom half for another who cares win.

2/12/2018 7:21:26 AM

Best case at 9-9 is probably to beat Syracuse, GT and BC. Losses to GT/BC would both be quadrant 3 losses and probably be seen as "bad". Beating Syracuse would give us yet another quadrant 1 win (we already have a lot). Losing to Wake on the road would be seen the same as losing to FSU/LOU at home (according to the "quadrants" view).

[Edited on February 12, 2018 at 8:06 AM. Reason : Typing on phone]

2/12/2018 8:05:40 AM

jesus the syracuse game is a 9PM too?! fuck all these 9PM tips

2/12/2018 8:54:49 AM

Last one luckily. Last 2 weekday games are 7 and 8pm

2/12/2018 9:44:19 AM

seems like way more than normal but maybe i'm just getting old and staying up that late is more of a hassle for me now than it used to be.

2/12/2018 9:48:59 AM

^I've noticed more 9PM tips the last few years. No east coast game should tip at 9:00. Its fucking ridiculous. That puts the game being over at 11 PM and most people not getting home til close to midnight. And these are for weeknight games. Abysmal

2/12/2018 11:52:08 AM

The best thing going for us is that our SOS is going in the right direction, no matter if we win or lose games. That should help us, even if we finish 9-9 in conf, to go up the RPI rankings.

But that shitty OOC schedule is a huge issue. All the stats systems disproportionately penalize you big time if you played 8 #300 teams vs 8 #230 teams. Our record against a somewhat less shitty OOC slate would have us in the top 30 right now and we wouldnt be so squarely on the bubble. There are NO other teams with RPI over 50 with the top25 results that we have.

We need Debbie and whoever else in PR we have to find a way to highlight that, and to get someone to do the math to illustrate the weakness in all these ranking machines. There should not be a bubble discussion on TV or online that does not talk about our top 25 wins. We won more top 25 games than most other teams in consideration even played...

[Edited on February 12, 2018 at 1:40 PM. Reason : .]

2/12/2018 1:39:08 PM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZjIedHKIAVM

New Wolfpack Hustle is out. LOL at Keatts messing with Hunt about being slow and unathletic.

2/12/2018 1:56:23 PM

I think a huge SNUB on selection Sunday is in order this year. Or, at least that's what I've already told myself since the last few trips to the dance we were some of the last four teams in and I kinda feel like we're due.

2/12/2018 2:02:22 PM

This team needs to remember how to play on ball defense before we even start to think about getting in the tourney

2/12/2018 2:12:36 PM

^^even being in the convo this year is great. I dont expect us to win enough games down the stretch to be in the conversation that day but it could happen

2/12/2018 8:36:21 PM

Given what remains on our schedule, I’d be disappointed if we weren’t in the conversation. But I agree with your point - we’ve already exceeded any of my expectations for this year.

2/13/2018 6:17:56 AM

We have 4 wins against teams that were on the selection committee's top-16 preview...but also 3 losses.

I would have expected us to be 0-7, so no matter what I'm pleased with how this season has gone. I think we will get into the tournament with 19 regular season wins and one (maybe more?) ACCT win. Then once we're in who knows what could happen...this team could win by 2 or lose by 20 to pretty much anybody with a 10 seed or higher.

2/13/2018 6:00:51 PM

How many top 16 wins do the top 16 teams have?

2/13/2018 7:14:17 PM

Currently (2/14) we are 16/9 and have 6 reg season games left plus at least 1 acct game. If 22 W's has an 80% chance to get in, I guess we need to win 6

2/14/2018 4:15:27 PM

16-9

2/14/2018 5:09:45 PM

I was mistaken, we were 4-4 vs top 16. Forgot about Tennessee.

Quote :

"How many top 16 wins do the top 16 teams have?"

Not going to go through all 16, but here are the vs top 16 records of the ones we've played against.

UNC is 4-3 with one more coming against Duke (1-1 vs NCSU)
Duke is 1-2 with one more coming against UNC, one more against Clemson (0-1 vs NCSU)
Clemson is 2-2 with one more against Duke (1-1 vs NCSU)
Virginia is 3-0 (1-0 vs NCSU)
Arizona is 0-1 (0-1 vs NCSU)
Tennessee is 1-3 (1-0 vs NCSU)

I keep thinking, "what has UNC really accomplished this year?" but they've had the #2 hardest schedule in the country. Not as overrated as I wish they really were.

[Edited on February 14, 2018 at 5:53 PM. Reason : -]

2/14/2018 5:50:38 PM

nm

[Edited on February 14, 2018 at 5:56 PM. Reason : .]

2/14/2018 5:55:57 PM

Crucial win

If we only get 3 more, BC and GT are absolutely must wins

[Edited on February 14, 2018 at 11:18 PM. Reason : I e]

2/14/2018 11:16:16 PM

So this is another quadrant 1 win which is v good

2/14/2018 11:17:14 PM

I think 21 is the magic number, ACCT included.

It's hard to judge the committee's stupidity year to year, though, so 22 to be safe.

2/14/2018 11:22:28 PM

So looking back, 9-9 ranged 7 to 10 for seeding, fyi

10-8 would prob keep us from playing Tuesday

2/14/2018 11:25:52 PM

19-13 makes things a little scary on selection Sunday, so this win was huge. I'm feeling really good, if we get to 10-9, or 11-9 in the ACC.

2/15/2018 12:24:46 AM

we can't ask for the schedule to work out any better for us down the stretch. Our toughest tests, BC, FSU and UL are at home. We only have two more road contests against two of the worst teams in the league. Need to go 3-2 over the final 5. Any worse than that and I think we're gonna need to do a good bit of work in the ACC tourney

2/15/2018 12:57:06 AM

Just noticed that Cuse has a really tough schedule the rest of the way which helps us as they were still in the bubble talk.

Remaining: Miami, UNC, Duke, BC, Clemson

2/15/2018 8:33:44 AM

Jumped 10 spots in rpi to 60

[Edited on February 15, 2018 at 12:29 PM. Reason : 60]

Also root for penn st tonight vs osu

[Edited on February 15, 2018 at 12:46 PM. Reason : E]

2/15/2018 12:29:26 PM

bubble af

2/15/2018 12:49:34 PM

Does Kreepz even know anyone on the NCAA March Madness selection team?

2/15/2018 1:10:00 PM

Quote :

"Just noticed that Cuse has a really tough schedule the rest of the way which helps us as they were still in the bubble talk. Remaining: Miami, UNC, Duke, BC, Clemson"

kind of a catch-22 since them losing makes it a worse win.

2/15/2018 1:24:27 PM

but i think, even with losses to pretty good teams, it would keep their rpi respectable even if their overall record looks not so good.

2/15/2018 1:31:34 PM

At this point I wouldn't worry about what other teams are doing. Based on our schedule, need to hit 20 wins. Get to at least 20-11(10-8) and try not to drop the games @WF and @GT, and we should have a pretty solid resume.

Anything over that and I think we're a lock. Anything less than that, and we'll have ACCT work to do.

2/15/2018 1:33:27 PM

@wake isn't as huge as all that, with the quadrant system. Away Wake game and home BC game prob count similar

2/15/2018 1:38:57 PM

Quote :

"Just noticed that Cuse has a really tough schedule the rest of the way which helps us as they were still in the bubble talk."

Quote :

"kind of a catch-22 since them losing makes it a worse win"

We're not competing just with Syracuse for a spot. Bracketology has us as a play-in 11 seed and Syracuse in the first 4 out.

What we need is for the possible 10/11 seeds who aren't conference champs to lose (Providence, Kansas State, Washington, Arkansas, Houston) so we can skip the play-in game.

VT is the real catch-22. We want them to win to make our loss look better, but on the other hand we want them to lose so we can move up a spot in the ACCT seeding.

2/15/2018 3:18:21 PM

We should just win out, thats my preference

2/15/2018 3:33:56 PM

Quote :

"play-in 11 seed"

God I hate this play in on 11 seed nonsense. Make the 16 seeds all the playins, Sorry that some conference champion from a shit league has to play a play-in but good teams from tough conferences shouldn't be penalized here.

2/15/2018 3:37:03 PM

^amen.

2/15/2018 5:31:10 PM

Or just expand the first round. Or get rid of 4 at large spots.

2/15/2018 5:38:23 PM

16s should not be in playins period because those are automatic bids. they should have an auto spot.

2/15/2018 7:07:28 PM

Yeah auto bids shouldn’t be in a play in game. But they do have the 16/16 play in right?

2/15/2018 7:25:06 PM