That 2002 GT game was the first and last state game I attended in person. I decided I was bad luck

10/16/2017 4:38:47 PM

5-1

10/16/2017 4:38:56 PM

Quote :

"Kickstand is much more rational (in this argument) than the rest of you lot and yall know it"

what's the argument we're even having? state is in the driver's seat to win the atlantic. we're a top 20 football team, having a season that we haven't had in years. we all know clemson looms large and that will be a very difficult game. nobody seems to be taking anything for granted. nobody's is booking their tickets to the ACCCG or CFP.

sure, odds are we don't win the conference. that's hardly an outlandish prediction to make. but we've positioned ourselves well so far. so enjoy the ride. it's pretty fun to have a good football team that is actually maybe relevant on the national stage and will be playing nationally significant games in November. jump on the bandwagon

10/16/2017 5:14:34 PM

Just how good is our O-Line?

Is it still 0 sacks in acc play?

10/16/2017 6:26:11 PM

Quote :

"Just how good is our O-Line? Is it still 0 sacks in acc play?"

Given up 7 sacks total

Missing 2 starting OL for SC: 4 sacks allowed

Missing 1 starting OL for Marshall: 2 sacks allowed

Full set of five for Furman: 1 sack allowed (in the first half)

since halftime at Furman: Zero Sacks Allowed.

10/16/2017 6:37:01 PM

^thats damn good.

10/17/2017 10:25:48 AM

....I think it's we've allowed 0 sacks on Finley in ACC play.

Think Locklear got sacked on a reverse-pass which counts against the OL.

10/17/2017 11:22:48 AM

Chubb (DE) and Samuels (TE) are AP First-Team Midseason All Americans and Hines is on the second team for all purpose players. Pretty impressive for State to have 3 players make that list including 2 on first team.

10/17/2017 4:42:36 PM

IIRC

-Holt had an interception wtih 2 feet down that was called out in the georgia tech game before the era of replay.
-Cotchery was hurt for the maryland and virginia game
-TA was playing with his arm in a cast all season.

10/17/2017 11:01:21 PM

FWIW

--Marshall is now 5-1 on the season (only loss is to us). They're steamrolling teams in Conference USA.

--Furman has gone 4-0 since we beat them. All of their victories have been by 20+ points.

--So Car getting some votes in the AP Top 25 after beating UT and Ark.


I say that because I didn't think any of them were as bad as some people made them out to be when we played them -- esp Marshall. Will be interesting to see how their seasons play out.

10/18/2017 2:55:11 AM

I don't think it's worthwhile to look at Marshall or Furman's record in order to determine how good we are or strength of schedule. Those wins won't help us even if they win out.

10/18/2017 7:44:49 AM

It should help for any strength of schedule formula. Might not help a lot, but it probably includes those teams.

10/18/2017 8:46:44 AM

ehhh, i don't think SOS in football is what it is in CBB. it's really only gonna matter for the playoff and even then there are other factors (winning your conference being the main thing). i don't think there's a formula the CFP committee uses like CBB uses RPI. so Furman being 9-3 or 3-9 really isn't gonna matter. Marshall winning their conference would probably look nice, but ultimately wouldn't make or break us in the CFP imo. the conference teams and P5 teams we play matter more - SCar, FSU, UL, etc.

10/18/2017 11:27:11 AM

it will make a difference if we are being compared to a pac12 champ lile washington with a weak schedule

10/18/2017 12:08:28 PM

maybe...but (theoretical) wins vs Clemson, ND, Coastal champ, and wins over other ACC opponents will farrrrr outweigh what Furman does.

[Edited on October 18, 2017 at 12:16 PM. Reason : h]

10/18/2017 12:15:41 PM

Adam and Joe were projecting out comparing a 1 loss NCSU team to an undefeated Wisconsin. Their schedule is one of the weakest in the country.

10/18/2017 2:10:18 PM

Yeah, they haven't beaten any team with a winning record and only 2 of their opponents the rest of the way are above .500

10/18/2017 2:12:51 PM

Teams that have been there and are constantly in the top 25 are gonna get the nod over us. If we beat ND we knock one out. We would likely need all other power conferences to have their champ with 2 losses.

Right now I would project:

1. Alabama
2. Big 10 winner
3. Georgia
4. Big 12 winner

10/18/2017 2:31:10 PM

^georgia is only in if they win the SEC.

10/18/2017 2:33:59 PM

A 1-loss ACC Champion NC State team gets in over either the Pac 12 or Big 12 champ

10/18/2017 2:38:00 PM

If Clemson wins out, they're in. If we win out, we're not in.

10/18/2017 2:39:03 PM

Exactly. We are not going to be in the playoffs.

10/18/2017 2:44:08 PM

Quote :

"If we win out, we're not in."

Based on what?

10/18/2017 2:50:21 PM

defeatism

10/18/2017 2:55:53 PM

I'm not sure either, apparently a loss to a SEC team that's not crap is worse than a loss to a mediocre at best ACC team. (that we beat)

10/18/2017 2:56:28 PM

Quote :

"georgia is only in if they win the SEC."

Nah, if Alabama and Georgia both win out and play a relatively close SEC championship game, they'd both be in.

Big 10 won't get 2 teams in, Wisconsin has played the biggest joke of a schedule and play in arguably the worst division in college football. Even if they win out they'll have like 1 quality win and that would be from their championship game. Neither Ohio State or Penn State have a good non conference win, and whichever one loses their matchup will only have a chance at beating 2 ranked opponents (UM lol and MSU). You could make a very good case for an undefeated conference champion Wisconsin missing the CFP, their schedule is that bad.

Big 12 winner could definitely get left of this year. A hypothetical 12-1 NC State team would have victories over ND, Clemson, Louisville and most likely Miami. That's as good a resume as you'll find. I don't think it'll happen, but if it did we'd be very, very strong contenders for a playoff spot.

10/18/2017 3:03:00 PM

from David Hale via twitter:

Quote :

"Lowest rate of QB pressures allowed, P5: 1. NC State, 10.9% 2. Mizzou, 13.5% 3. Miami, 17.2%"

10/18/2017 3:08:45 PM

Your problem is you assume that what the committee would do is logical. Again teams that are regularly ranked with big names are gonna get the nod ahead of us. This is why a one loss clemson gets in where as a 1 loss NC State doesn't without some help.

10/18/2017 3:17:14 PM

because TCU is a big name

Quote :

"Nah, if Alabama and Georgia both win out and play a relatively close SEC championship game, they'd both be in."

if Georgia wins, maybe. if Bama wins the title game, Georgia gets left out.

[Edited on October 18, 2017 at 3:24 PM. Reason : .]

10/18/2017 3:21:06 PM

Quote :

"Nah, if Alabama and Georgia both win out and play a relatively close SEC championship game, they'd both be in."

Over a 2 loss champ sure, over anyone else but ND with 0 or 1 losses, no.

10/18/2017 3:31:48 PM

I agree that's how it should be (title games being defacto CFP quarterfinals) but I don't see a 12-1 SEC team being on the outside looking in.

It's still way too early to talk about this shit anyways. I mean hell, Virginia is still in the ACC title race for God's sake.

10/18/2017 3:32:34 PM

so far the committee has showed they value conference titles. win the acc with 1 loss and we've got a great shot. so barring a 2 loss conference champ, i think acc champ with 1 loss gets in over 1 loss sec runner up.

also...let's enjoy that we can even have this conversation (even if it's far fetched, it's on the table) about state football at this point in the season

[Edited on October 18, 2017 at 3:59 PM. Reason : f]

10/18/2017 3:59:27 PM

Penn State says otherwise. The CFP has shown that it values big wins more than not losing. That's why a 13-0 Wisconsin is a nightmare for the B1G because they would in all likelihood have the worst resume of any potential playoff team.

10/18/2017 4:07:31 PM

Quote :

"we've got a great shot."

Win 12 games in a row and have the ACC title and we only "have a shot."

Give me a break. We will be ranked #2 in the nation if that happens.

We have to beat ND first.

10/18/2017 4:07:38 PM

I'm not comparing the B1G to the SEC, but a few years back when Ohio State and Michigan were #1 and #2 in the country, B1G clowns were clamoring for a rematch and it obviously didn't happen. A 12-1 Alabama team probably won't be left out, but Georgia would have to be a #4 seed if they got in after losing to Bama in the SEC title game, which would mean a Bama/UGA rematch in round 1, which won't happen.

10/18/2017 4:09:47 PM

Quote :

"Penn State says otherwise."

you mean 2 loss penn state? that's a different discussion than a 1 loss conference champ. every college football playoff team so far has won their conference and had 1 or fewer losses on the season. only exception to that is Big 12 in 2014 when Baylor won their conference with 1 loss. they (and tcu who finished second in the big 12) were left out and that was generally explained by their lack of a conference title game. big 12 went out and added an extra conference game after that.

win your conference (P5) and have 1 loss or less and you're almost definitely gonna make the CFP. it would take a pretty crazy season and an extremely down conference season for that team to miss the playoff.

[Edited on October 18, 2017 at 5:41 PM. Reason : n]

10/18/2017 5:38:53 PM

Quote :

"every college football playoff team so far has won their conference and had 1 or fewer losses on the season. "

Ohio State didn't win their conference last year

But my point is that conference championships don't matter, quality wins matter. If we somehow go 12-1, our wins will be as good as anyone's in the country and we won't be left out of the playoffs. It's also why I think an undefeated Wisconsin team would have a worse resume than a 12-1 team from almost any other conference and probably other B1G teams.

10/18/2017 6:52:59 PM

They also discount September losses. We control our own destiny, folks.

10/18/2017 7:18:57 PM

Yeah I was wrong about Ohio St.

Every year we do this, around mid season, where it's like "oh my god what if there's 8 deserving playoff teams" and generally speaking things have managed to work themselves out where the 4 teams becaome fairly obvious by season's end. This year may be the year that all hell breaks loose. But usually all this hypothetical stuff is just for fun and it probably wont be this complicated.

10/18/2017 7:21:54 PM

nd winning out would certainly funk things up if there are a ton of 1 loss teams

10/18/2017 7:35:40 PM

Us winning out means Clemson will have at least 2 losses. Louisville and FSU are both already at 3 losses. The three teams that made the ACC Atlantic the beast division are all having comparatively down years.

That's why we won't get in. Us winning makes the ACC look weak. It's dumb that it does, but it does. At least that's what the committee will say.

It will take an undefeated Miami or 1-loss Clemson. Those are the only hopes the ACC has.

10/19/2017 12:07:57 AM

^nd is the wild card. if they beat usc, they take pac12 out of the picture and become overrated themselves, giving us the opportunity to beat 2 top 10 teams in a row which would legitimise us in the eyes of the nation. then we still have a shot to knock off an unbeaten miami team.

if we didnt play nd, i would completely agree with you.

10/19/2017 12:36:32 AM

Quote :

"That's why we won't get in. Us winning makes the ACC look weak. It's dumb that it does, but it does. At least that's what the committee will say. "

10/19/2017 12:44:54 AM

Quote :

"It will take an undefeated Miami or 1-loss Clemson. Those are the only hopes the ACC has. "

nope. there's pretty much nothing to support, it's 100% conjecture.

10/19/2017 7:04:08 AM

Quote :

"Us winning out means Clemson will have at least 2 losses. Louisville and FSU are both already at 3 losses. The three teams that made the ACC Atlantic the beast division are all having comparatively down years. That's why we won't get in. Us winning makes the ACC look weak. It's dumb that it does, but it does. At least that's what the committee will say. It will take an undefeated Miami or 1-loss Clemson. Those are the only hopes the ACC has."

Lot of fail in this post.

Quote :

"^georgia is only in if they win the SEC. "

I'm now on board with this. I originally thought that if Bama and UGA met in the SEC title game undefeated and it was a close game, that both teams would get in. Both the committee would then be forced to put the non-conference champion as a 4-see and make an immediate re-match (SEC champion is getting 1-seed). Or then they'd have to explain putting a non-conference champion as a 3-seed. I just don't see either happening.

If we win out...we're in. I also think a lot of these teams will continue to lose. I can definitely see a Pac-12 champion not getting in (good possibility the champ will have two losses at the end of the year)...they're beating each other up and will not have a lot of high rankings at the end of the year...and they just suck.

[Edited on October 19, 2017 at 7:46 AM. Reason : .]

10/19/2017 7:42:57 AM

I knew that Wisconsin has a shit schedule, but I didn't realize the rest of the big ten was the exact same as well. The best team Ohio State has beaten this year is fucking Army. That whole conference is a damn joke and should be left out of the playoffs on principle.

10/19/2017 8:04:36 AM

I think most analysts have already admitted that IF NC State wins out(however unlikely that is) we're 100% in the CFP.

I understand your pessimism and trolling natures, but there really isn't even room for a discussion or debate. 1-loss Clemson made it in last year, there "big" wins were Louisville(ended with 4 losses) and FSU(ended with 3 losses) then beat VT in the ACCCG(ended with 4 losses). So please shut up with this "but if we beat Clemson they'll have 2 losses so it won't be a good win anymore" crap.

10/19/2017 8:12:09 AM

this will be a moot issue, i guarantee it

10/19/2017 9:30:30 AM

Quote :

"We have to beat ND first."

this guy gets it

10/19/2017 9:41:34 AM

seriously, if we wolfwebbers don't focus solely on the next game, then we are likely to lose!

10/19/2017 9:49:40 AM