Kentucky has 1 top 25 (Rankings) win and is 0-4 against top 25 rpi

We have 5 top 25 wins and 4-4 against top 25 rpi

At least Lunardi finally moved us up to a 9 seed and out of the last 4 byes

[Edited on February 26, 2018 at 1:21 PM. Reason : .]

2/26/2018 1:19:45 PM

how did we not get more votes than middle tennessee?

2/26/2018 1:59:40 PM

Every week is a reminder about how crippling that damn loss to UNCG was. Wish theyd quit scheduling that matchup

2/26/2018 2:00:18 PM

UNI is turning out to be a worse loss than UNCG.

2/26/2018 2:04:39 PM

At this point the voters aren't going back and looking at our UNCG loss and keeping us out. Giving them way to much credit. It is more about this being the time of year where all those mid-majors that have racked up the pretty records are getting the votes and filling up that 18-25 area. Heck Houston is top 25 with a loss to Drexel, LSU, Tulane.. but their record is pretty and there was a win against Wichita somewhere in there.

2/26/2018 2:28:00 PM

UNCG isn't a terrible loss.

UNI was, is, and will continue to be a terrible loss.

The UNCG loss just sticks out more because it's a fellow NC team.

Have you noticed that every time we put together a string of wins we appear in the "receiving votes" section"? Last time we did it and we lost the next 2. Something tells me, if we win the next 2, we'll end up ranked(as we should).

Look at rankings on various metrics to see why UK is above us.
UK: AP: #24, Coaches: #25, Kenpom: #24, RPI: #16
NCSU: AP: #29, Coaches: #32, Kenpom: #40, RPI: #47

Conference play is great, big wins are great, but it's basically just negating how shitty our non-con was. We're basically a 98% lock for the NCAAT at this point, why are we bitching about whether or not we're #25 or #29? Just keep winning.

2/26/2018 2:35:15 PM

Quote :

"We're basically a 98% lock for the NCAAT at this point, why are we bitching about whether or not we're #25 or #29?"

Well we don't need to bitch about making the NCAAT, so we might as well bitch about something like ranked recognition

2/26/2018 2:42:51 PM

Yeah the committee isn’t looking st the AP poll so it’s pretty unimportant at this point

2/26/2018 3:01:54 PM

Which wins is that 98% assuming? if we lose to GT and lose our first ACC tourney games, we'll be in trouble. If we also lose to Lou, I think we're out.

2/26/2018 3:12:55 PM

I'd say if we lose to Ga Tech we deserve to be out anyway, but I don't think that's happening.

2/26/2018 3:41:27 PM

Per Bracket Matrix(amasses a ton of published brackets), we're in 82/83 possible brackets, so that's 98.7% of bracket makers have us in the tourney. Our average seeding is 9.34.

That's where I guessed(it hadn't updated when I posted) the 98% from because we were already on 90%+.

I think winning 1 more game would push that to 100%, whether it's @GT, UL, or a game in the ACCT. I do think @GT is the most damaging game left on our schedule(barring Pitt making a run in the ACCT).

Think it would take 3 straight 20+ point losses to have us on the wrong side of the bubble, but even then we'd still be on the bubble.

2/26/2018 3:48:56 PM

Being in the bracket now has no bearing on being a lock to be in at the end of the season. Now if 98% of the brackets had us, I don't know, top 9 seed? Then I'd day we are a lock. If those brackets have us 10/11/12 then we need to win games. Especially if other teams in that range win.

2/26/2018 3:51:46 PM

Yeah can’t lose out. As of today we’re definitely in. Assuming we don’t shit our pants down the stretch we’re in

2/26/2018 3:54:37 PM

its all such a joke. 4th place acc is usually at least a 5 seed at the

[Edited on February 26, 2018 at 4:07 PM. Reason : but lets dwell on 1 game in november]

2/26/2018 4:07:08 PM

I don't think anyone is worried about 4th place. If we finish 4th that means we prob beat GT and lose to Lou, but then other fellow acc bubble teams lose too. Then also, if we lose first game ACC tourney it's prob a better loss, whereas if lose first game as 5th or lower, that's a team lowered than 75 rpi most likely.

2/26/2018 4:46:37 PM

Yall, we aint losing to GT.

Kevin Keats is a winner.

2/26/2018 4:51:36 PM

so with Virginia Tech beating Duke, we win out and we get the 3 seed (Duke or Carolina would be tied with us and we would hold the tiebreak over either, by virtue being 1-0 against Duke to Carolina's 1-1 or being 1-1 against Carolina to Duke's 0-2)

edit: I think this still applies if Clemson has the same record and it's a three-way tie, but y'all feel free to correct me

[Edited on February 26, 2018 at 9:07 PM. Reason : ]

2/26/2018 9:07:05 PM

VT just made things interesting...

2/26/2018 9:07:06 PM

It also means losing a game is more likely to drop us from top 4 and one more team to pass on the bubble

2/26/2018 9:09:30 PM

Just win out and lock this 3 seed down. I’m ready for an NC State team to actually take advantage of an opportunity like this when they’re in control of their own destiny.

2/26/2018 9:13:33 PM

Quote :

"and one more team to pass on the bubble"

Ehh. We’re not really on the bubble at this point. Go 1-2 to end the season and things get interesting. But otherwise we are pretty solidly in as of now.

2/26/2018 9:16:08 PM

I don't think it will happen but that Pitt game makes me nervous vs anyone. I think we'll handle GT but its not out of the question to go cold vs Lou and get a tough match-up first round, like say a ND with Bonzie


But I also came up during Les and from a pessimistic state fan father, so maybe I'm just showing my roots

[Edited on February 26, 2018 at 9:27 PM. Reason : E]

2/26/2018 9:25:19 PM

ND with Bonzie all along would have been 2nd or 3rd in the ACC at this point.

2/26/2018 9:30:42 PM

Quote :

"It also means losing a game is more likely to drop us from top 4 and one more team to pass on the bubble"

True, but I don't know if I'm any more confident in VT beating Miami than I am in us winning out

2/26/2018 9:44:04 PM

So after VTechs win tonight does that mean as long as NC State wins out and UNC lose to Miami and then beat Duke we would finish 2nd?

Lots of ifs in there but wow that would be incredible.

2/26/2018 10:09:25 PM

nah we would be 3 seed in that case. all 3 of us (Carolina, Duke, State) would be tied and Carolina would be 3-1 against that group while we would be 2-1 and Duke would be 0-3 (lol)

2/26/2018 10:11:26 PM

Crazy part is that if Clemson finishes 12-6 too that Duke could fall all the way to 5th

2/26/2018 10:13:09 PM

Yeah, I don't think we can finish 2nd any more.

2/27/2018 12:12:16 AM

2/27/2018 3:16:58 AM

Crazy how we needed the current #2 team to win in order for us to jump them. Alas, #2 is officially out of reach.

If we win out, we're guaranteed at least #4.
To finish #3, we need to win out and UNC to lose just 1 (vs Miami Tuesday, @Duke Saturday)

Lucky for us, VT and Miami still have to play each other, so at least one of them is guaranteed another loss. If we lose just one of our final two games, we would fall behind whoever wins that game...and behind Louisville too if they're the ones who beat us AND if they manage to beat UVA.

So if we lose to GT but beat Louisville, we're #5. If we beat GT and lose to Louisville (and Louisville beats UVA), we're #6.

I've heard that we're a lock for at worst #8, but I think we could drop as far as #9 if we're in a group tie with 8 losses with FSU, Louisville, and the loser of VT/Miami. I might be looking at the numbers wrong.

But anyway, long story short, please to win out.

[Edited on February 27, 2018 at 4:30 AM. Reason : -]

2/27/2018 4:27:34 AM

^ pretty sure we get the 3 if we win out no matter what.
IF UNC beats Miami
and Duke beats UNC we would be 3-way tie with Clemson, UNC, State and we are all 2-2 vs each other, then the 100% win % v Duke breaks the tie, right?, if Clemson doesn't win out we still beat out UNC due to the W v Duke

or UNC beats Duke then it's a 3 way tie with Duke (1-1), Clemson (1-2), State (3-2) so we get the 3 based on win%, if Clemson doesn't win out we still beat out Duke due to head to head


IF Miami beats UNC
and Duke beats UNC, then Duke gets the 2 and we are tied with Clemson for the 3 and win that tiebreaker due to the win vs Duke

or UNC beats Duke, then 4 way tie between for the 2 seed with Duke (1-3), Clemson (2-3), State (3-2), UNC (4-2), that way UNC gets the 2, we get the 3, Clemson gets the 4 and Duke gets the 5. If Clemson doesn't win out then it's a 3-way tie with Duke (0-3), State (2-1), and UNC (3-1) so UNC gets the 2, we get the 3, Duke gets the 4


Using http://bball.notnothing.net/acc.php?sport=mbb confirms those scenarios


[Edited on February 27, 2018 at 8:18 AM. Reason : Miami]

2/27/2018 8:06:14 AM

If we finish 3rd, Keatts should get COY imo.

2/27/2018 8:40:23 AM

Kinda hard to give it to anyone other than Tony Bennett. UVA was predicted to take a step back this year, but have been the ACC's and maybe the country's best team wire to wire.

2/27/2018 9:18:30 AM

UVA was picked to finished 6th in the ACC preseason, and they're the #1 team in the ACC and the country.

0% chance Bennett doesn't win the award.

2/27/2018 9:21:43 AM

State was predicted to be terrible

[Edited on February 27, 2018 at 9:21 AM. Reason : if we want to base it on predictions]

[Edited on February 27, 2018 at 9:23 AM. Reason : I agree it's Bennett's award though]

2/27/2018 9:21:44 AM

The Brownell talk should be over. We're tied in the conference and it's not like we didn't have to go through part of the schedule without our best player, either.

Agree on Bennett, though. Can't really complain about that one.

2/27/2018 10:39:04 AM

NC State was picked to finish 12th.

Currently 12th place in the ACC is 6-10.
NC State is currently t-4th place in the ACC at 10-6.
So we're +4 ACC wins from our projected ranking in the ACC.

UVA was picked to finish 6th.

Currently 6th place in the ACC is 10-7.
UVA is currently 1st place in the ACC at 15-1.
So they're +5.5 ACC wins from their projected ranking in the ACC.

Bennett is in the running for National COTY, he's going to win the ACC COTY without question. I do think Keatts steals some votes, and I actually wouldn't be surprised if Buzz steals some votes too.

2/27/2018 11:40:06 AM

Man shit is bottling up again in the ACC.

2/27/2018 10:51:21 PM

Not sure which way this would help us more yet.

2/27/2018 10:56:40 PM

Don’t care. Carolina can eat a dick.

2/27/2018 11:00:49 PM

Man Miami is strong in the running for 3 now.

2/27/2018 11:10:54 PM

So if Duke beats UNC and we win out, all three of us are tied for the 2,3,4 seeds. Who gets which seed?

2/27/2018 11:14:41 PM

lol

2/27/2018 11:18:36 PM

I think he meant to say "if duke beats UNC" and the answer is that we would be 2 but clemson could also wind up in that group if they win out and that would push us back down because we lost a game to them.

2/27/2018 11:22:13 PM

I think you both meant if UNC beats Duke

2/27/2018 11:23:32 PM

Could have sworn i got it right. I think its a weird state fan thing where no matter what we intend to type or think we are typing, it never comes out as a positive scenario for UNC.

2/27/2018 11:25:13 PM

https://youtu.be/90cwlneRjPQ?t=30s

2/27/2018 11:26:25 PM

yeah you guys knew what I meant, lol

ok so two seed if tied with UNC and Duke, or a three seed if Clemson wins out and there's a four way tie

sounds good to me

2/27/2018 11:27:04 PM

If Duke beats UNC, UNC will be 11-7 in ACC. If UNC beats Duke, both UNC and Duke will be 12-6. If NC State wins out they will be 12-6. So pretty much either way NC State needs to handle their business and can secure a #3 seed (if Clemson loses) How does tiebreaker with UNC work if the beat Duke? I know we beat Duke, so that breaks that tie

[Edited on February 27, 2018 at 11:31 PM. Reason : ....]

2/27/2018 11:30:05 PM

If Clemson loses it would be

2 UNC (3-1)
3 State (2-1)
4 Duke (0-3)

based on round robin

[Edited on February 27, 2018 at 11:32 PM. Reason : forgot about Clempson]

2/27/2018 11:30:20 PM