Saying that it'll go bad without a relatively specific concern seems unmerited.

I did see on the news that the Muslim Brotherhood are trying to organize their own protests. So that's a possible negative turn. Maybe this isn't about the military at all, and instead a split society.

It's hard to avoid marginalizing any segment of the population. Particularly when it's an extralegal process. Sometimes though, it's hard to tell what defines legality.

7/4/2013 11:05:37 PM

I fully expect a backlash from Muslim Brotherhood supporters. After all their candidate was democratically elected and deposed. They obviously feel they have no voice. If that escalates further to any type of sustained violence (or in the most extreme case civil war) remains t be seen. The chance for it to get ugly is certainly on the table though.

7/5/2013 12:33:22 AM

Quote :

". It sorta pisses you off a little too doesn't it"

Um.... what? I think you are confusing me with someone else.

[Edited on July 5, 2013 at 9:46 AM. Reason : were you referring to me?]

7/5/2013 9:44:54 AM

^^ I worry that people or parties could get barred from elections.

They should be able to run just like anyone else in new elections. But how can you maintain that when the reason you're calling elections is because you wanted those people out?

I think public office should be easy come easy go. But we also should have a strong refrain from imposing criminal penalties. The action of a government is bigger than any single individual. Fear of reprisal through house arrest or worse also contributes to a heavy and totalitarian hand. You have a problem when people see public office as a "take all" or "lose all" proposition. That seems like it would explain a lot of the actions of middle eastern leaders. It's like you're vying for King, and failure is death.

What if Morsi wanted to run again? Should he be allowed to?

[Edited on July 5, 2013 at 10:10 AM. Reason : ]

7/5/2013 10:08:51 AM

This makes me nervous because now that its been shown to the Muslim Brotherhood that they cannot come to power and rule peacefully, they may decide that their only real option is to try and seize control of the country by force. Why should they bother running for office again if they're just going to be thrown out by the Army? Unfortunately, they have about half the country who is probably in agreement with them...

7/5/2013 10:47:53 AM

exactly, that's the broader downside. it's not just the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt; it's across the entire region.

I'm still willing to view it as the last chapter being unwritten.

7/5/2013 11:52:10 AM

the civil war begins...35 dead

7/5/2013 12:06:14 PM

The question is will the real hardcore Al Qaeda types start streaming in? (like in Syria)

7/5/2013 2:28:22 PM

^^ This will not end well.

[Edited on July 5, 2013 at 2:29 PM. Reason : .]

7/5/2013 2:29:08 PM

Oh, they most definitely will. Al Qaeda-style Jihad has found another fertile field to irrigate with Arab blood. Unless someone figures out a miraculous way to abort this spiral, I just don't see a good ending for the people of Egypt.

7/5/2013 2:31:00 PM

Wild scene on Al Jazeera now. Both sides are shooting fireworks at each other.

7/5/2013 3:17:39 PM

Who is surprised? Found this old update I made in February 2011:

Quote :

"Mubarak out, a council of military generals in. Surely, we can expect to see a thriving, liberal democracy take hold at any time... Sorry, I'd like to be optimistic, but for all of you students of history out there, we know how this ends."

It's not like the people of Egypt demanded change based on a sudden, philosophical revelation. They were just pissed off at the current leadership. Now they're pissed off again.

7/5/2013 3:30:49 PM

51 members of the Muslim Brotherhood massacred by the Egyptian military at a sit-in outside the Republican Guard headquarters.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/07/20137821320932698.html

Controversy over who shot who. The Muslim Brotherhood believes its the Egyptian Police or paramilitary units aligned with them. The military claims it was a terrorist group, maybe aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Regardless, stacking more wood on the pyre for the upcoming conflagration.

7/8/2013 3:59:05 PM

Would the brotherhood shoot their own supporters to gain international sympathy? It's not a bad strategy, really.

7/8/2013 8:24:56 PM

Arabs/Muslims killing each other... a large percentage of US politicians must be secretly ecstatic.

(Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, etc)

7/8/2013 9:48:14 PM

MUST WATCH youtube clip... 12 yo astute Egyptian boy explains what's happening in the country

http://www.takepart.com/article/2013/07/07/dont-understand-whats-happening-egypt-listen-12-year-old-break-it-down-you

7/10/2013 9:29:06 PM

If we don't call it what it is it isn't what it is.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-23351997

7/18/2013 11:12:51 PM

Why would you call it a coup if you made it happen?

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/07/2013710113522489801.html

And don't forget the official US line "We are not taking sides."

7/19/2013 12:02:37 AM

"officially" not taking sides. now, "unofficially" that's a whole different story...

7/19/2013 7:55:31 AM

Their are some real divisions among the Arab media in their reporting on these events. Al-Jazeera has a clear pro-Morsi bias. I also like how the US is not calling this a coup because we need to perpetuate the foreign aid to Egypt military more than they even need it. Very hypocritical and another sign that we only support democracy when it is convenient to our interests.

7/19/2013 12:31:57 PM

Over 100 killed last night in street battles in Cairo.

7/27/2013 3:16:17 AM

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-23711534
525 people died on Wednesday

do you guys still think this is good?

8/15/2013 10:30:06 AM

It's getting nasty.

In the long run, do you think it would be better to have left dictator Mubarek in power?

8/15/2013 10:33:34 AM

^I definitely don't. I can't support violence like this. It is a clusterfuck and likely they are on the road to civil war. I am sure it won't be long before Al Qaeda types come in on the side of Morsy supporters in an attempt to gain support and really radicalize them.

8/15/2013 10:34:13 AM

^^ i think that in the long run they would have had better chances at electing a credible government and would thus have a greater chance of peace in the long run, yes

8/15/2013 10:56:20 AM

Wasn't Morsi democratically elected?

8/15/2013 11:02:40 AM

yeah, that's exactly my point

[Edited on August 15, 2013 at 11:12 AM. Reason : go read my comments on the last page]

8/15/2013 11:12:33 AM

you can't just riot anytime you don't like the president. thats not what the arab spring was supposed to be about but somehow the minority lost the election and thew a fit to get the president removed. now things won't bottom out until the country sees long term authoritarian rule again.

8/15/2013 12:16:24 PM

You have no idea what "the arab spring" was "supposed to be about". There was no sudden philosophical revolution in Egypt, just pissed off people replacing one master with another.

8/15/2013 1:09:29 PM

and i suppose you know exactly what the arab spring was all about?

and i seriously don't get you, do you really think the world would be better off if every country fell into lawless anarchy with no government ("masters")?

[Edited on August 15, 2013 at 1:28 PM. Reason : ]

8/15/2013 1:27:53 PM

Do I claim to know what every protester or dissident believes or advocates? Of course not. I'm not willing to paint millions of people with a broad brush. American media likes to paint a pretty picture, an easy to digest narrative that noble savages abroad are fighting for their own version of a liberal democracy. Reality isn't that simple.

8/15/2013 1:33:10 PM

uhh, so what's your point? You just wanted to throw out the word "master" and talk about how bad the media is while trying to sound like you got it all figured out? seriously, what's your point?

edit: sorry to be snide, but i seriously don't get your whole "all government is slavery" philosophy. it doesn't seem to be grounded in any sort of reality. but that's probably for another thread.

[Edited on August 15, 2013 at 1:51 PM. Reason : ]

8/15/2013 1:38:53 PM

well he also wanted to point out how any and all government is bad because it's legitimacy is based on violence or threats of violence.

8/15/2013 1:50:15 PM

Quote :

"In the long run, do you think it would be better to have left dictator Mubarek in power?"

No, because sooner or later, Mubarak would have fallen, and this bloodletting would have likely still occurred. It's just a matter of it happening sooner and with most of the military still intact versus fragmenting into smaller units resulting in lots of small armed camps. I've kind of lost hope that a civil war in Egypt could have been avoided. Sad.

8/15/2013 2:35:24 PM

My point is that any claim about the collective will of Egypt is silly and unfounded. People want to ascribe their Western notions of democracy to societies they know nothing about.

8/15/2013 2:35:47 PM

so what you're saying is, unless you live there, you shouldn't talk about it or even think about it?

8/15/2013 2:41:19 PM

Quote :

"No, because sooner or later, Mubarak would have fallen, and this bloodletting would have likely still occurred. It's just a matter of it happening sooner and with most of the military still intact versus fragmenting into smaller units resulting in lots of small armed camps. I've kind of lost hope that a civil war in Egypt could have been avoided. Sad"

there would probably still be violence, but the next government afterwards would have more credibility if not installed by the military like the last time.

8/15/2013 2:45:15 PM

Don't be so dense. I'm saying that you shouldn't assert what a revolution "is supposed to be about" when you don't know or can't know.

The assumption from the beginning on the part of the mass media (and, as a result, most Americans) was that the people of Egypt were revolting, therefore Egypt was moving in a positive direction towards liberal democracy. Unfortunately, there was (and is) no indication that it is the case.

8/15/2013 2:51:53 PM

Reasonable people wouldn't expect a liberal democracy to come out of a military coup.

Egyptians elected Morsi democratically and then after he got into office they realized he was an extremist. Sounds familiar. But as our Moral Monday protests have proven, you cannot influence the political decisions of extremists using only popular opinion alone. This is the point at which the military intervened for whatever reasons. What is happening now, I consider to be political genocide.

8/16/2013 1:52:14 PM

I don't follow that at all

8/16/2013 2:15:18 PM

It's really not that complicated. They ousted a secular dictator so they could elect a new leader that could hopefully move the country in a new, more populist direction. After the election, they ended up with a religious extremist who's party was quickly moving to consolidate their power over the entire country, ripping apart whatever freedoms they hoped to have gained from the revolution. Basically back to square one. So they revolted again, and the military again took the people's side. The main difference this time is that Morsi had more popular support than Mubarak, especially among islamic fundamentalists.

8/16/2013 3:38:53 PM

Egypt police vow to use live ammunition to defend state buildings

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/16/egypt-violence-army-live-ammunition


Scores dead in Egypt's 'day of rage' clashes
Gunfire attacks continue on mosque near Cairo's Ramses Square, the site of worst bloodshed during anti-coup protests.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/08/2013816121757821877.html


All out civil war straight ahead. It was trending this way for a while, but I have a hard time seeing this resolve any other way at this point.

[Edited on August 16, 2013 at 5:02 PM. Reason : ]

8/16/2013 4:52:28 PM

That 5xx figure is the official figure, MB says that 2000 were killed. Of course, we will never know the real figure.

And the official figure has climbed to 728 now.

8/17/2013 6:33:40 AM

Saudi Arabia is supposedly backing the Egyptian military against the Muslim Brotherhood (sunni on sunni violence?):
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/08/20/gulf-nations-split-with-west-to-back-egyptian-military/

And the military arrested the MB's leader: http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/08/20/us-egypt-protests-idUSBRE97C09A20130820

8/20/2013 10:09:01 AM

At least they've yet to pen a "Book of Rage."

8/20/2013 10:50:17 AM

Think NPR put it best this morning: a bad decision between a secular military dictatorship and a questionably democratic Muslim Brotherhood.

Quote :

"Saudi Arabia is supposedly backing the Egyptian military against the Muslim Brotherhood (sunni on sunni violence?)"

I think of all the challenges in the region, the Muslim Brotherhood represents the most dangerous to the House of Saud. The Muslim Brotherhood represents a true alternative to the traditional Arab monarchy in the form of a populist, religiously conservative movement that may appeal to those who chafe under royal rule.

Quote :

"That 5xx figure is the official figure, MB says that 2000 were killed. Of course, we will never know the real figure."

The exact number is important from a humanitarian perspective, but from a political perspective, both the military and MB body counts carry the same weight. The casualties have passed a threshold that will only fuel future violence.

8/20/2013 11:38:19 AM

This explains the Saudi connection and other dynamics

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/how-some-ordinary-egyptians-became-malicious-terrorists-8773354.html

8/28/2013 1:52:35 AM

Oops forgot about this more current thread

Excellent commentary by Robert Fisk on the latest chaos and confusion gripping Arab countries

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/fisk/death-is-noweveryday-among-arabs--butculprits-and-facts-are-rare-8784453.html

9/1/2013 11:26:06 PM

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/egypt-in-crisis/

9/19/2013 12:52:12 AM

^front line is always good stuff, i look forward to watching that in the next few days. thanks!

9/19/2013 9:38:00 AM