*looking around for the irony*

7/14/2020 6:39:03 PM

Will we see cabinet secretaries abandon ship over the next couple months?

7/18/2020 10:39:17 PM

I doubt it. Other than possibly Esper, they're all true believers at this point. It's not like they need to save themselves for a future administration.

7/18/2020 10:58:12 PM

^

7/19/2020 10:59:39 AM

^^^ why would they?

7/19/2020 11:49:08 AM

It’s actually pretty quaint that people think there are consequences for actions in DC.

7/19/2020 4:14:54 PM

I think we'll at least see Pompeo, Scalia, and Azar back in DC after this administration.

7/19/2020 8:26:02 PM

Azar has done a relatively good job managing the development of the vaccine and treatments for COVID-19. If we actually see an approved vaccine by the end of the year (which is likely at this point), the administration deserves major credit.

7/20/2020 10:35:13 AM

1) Doesn't finish the term: resigns
2) Doesn't finish the term: 25th amendment
3) Doesn't finish the term: impeached, convicted, removed
4) Doesn't finish the term: dies of natural causes
5) Doesn't finish the term: dies of unnatural causes

6) Isn't the nominee: declines to run
7) Isn't the nominee: primaried
8) Isn't the nominee: convention shenanigans

9) Loses the election: undisputed loss, peaceful transfer of power
10) Loses the election: disputed loss, retains the office
11) Loses the election: disputed loss, loses the office
12) Loses the election: disputed loss, violence

13) Wins the election: undisputed win
14) Wins the election: disputed win, retains the office
15) Wins the election: disputed win, loses the office
16) Wins the election: disputed win, violence

Obviously it's not over until noon on January 20, 2021.

1, 2, 4 and 5 are still possibilities: Trump has two months to find a way to quit.

For 10: He's going to try, but there don't seem to be any viable paths for Trump to sue his way a second term. The courts haven't been receptive to any of Trump's complaints so far and there haven't been any major vote counting issues that would give the Supreme Court an opportunity to step in à la Florida 2000.

For 12: Similar to 10, there aren't any major voting issues to cause widespread loss of confidence in the results.

So, we're left with 9 and 11. The distinction between the two is probably best left to your judgement on the seriousness of Trump's disputes.

11/6/2020 12:25:39 PM

I wish I was as confident as you about #12...

11/6/2020 2:11:32 PM

My original thought for 12 and 16 was that something happens with the election and the result is determined extralegally (where extralegal involves a healthy street fighting component). Basically, a massive loss of confidence in the process by all sides. I don't think that's likely at this point.

Right now, I'm still expecting this:

Quote :

"If Trump loses, I expect he'll spend his two-and-a-half months as a lame duck filing lawsuits, spreading voter fraud conspiracy theories, and being an all around bitter, vindictive, destructive person. Some of the deadenders will follow his lead and we'll see lone wolf attacks."

[Edited on November 6, 2020 at 2:29 PM. Reason : !]

11/6/2020 2:28:20 PM

Yep, that sounds right.

11/6/2020 3:24:45 PM

Anyone else concerned about how many DoD guys are getting fired? Trump is stacking up his loyalists to be in charge of military powers.

11/10/2020 8:57:34 PM

^ Honestly, no. The people that matter (military brass) swore an oath to the Constitution. They don't give two shits about what pencil pusher heads the DoD.

11/10/2020 10:36:46 PM

Sure. But didn't Trump also swear an oath to the Constitution?

11/11/2020 12:11:19 AM

Quote :

"For 12: Similar to 10, there aren't any major voting issues to cause widespread loss of confidence in the results."

That's what you, I, and other sane people think. Look at Twitter and FB and you will see some seriously unhinged and dark posts, from seemingly 'normal' people, many of whom identify as Christians. And that's what we can see -- imagine what goes on in Gab and Parler

Even on FB and Twitter I have seen many posts calling on people to take to the streets and to defend freedom/Trump with all they have. Imagine if thousands of Trump supporters poured out onto the streets in desperation as it becomes increasingly clear he is going to have to leave his chair; that can and probably will easily lead to violence with counter-protestors. Aside from such posts couched in benign words, there have been ones explicitly calling for violence or some idiot posing with guns saying he is going to start killing people of the other side/LGBTQs. I have seen only screenshots of such posts, so there aren't many calling for violence, at least not yet.

I just hope there is no more violence

11/11/2020 5:00:19 AM

Trumper on FB:

Quote :

"What I would love to see is the Trump family start a fair news program like FOX used to be. He could hire Hannity, Tucker , Laura Ingrams and judge Jeanne! He would have an instant following!!! Also his own FB ! millions want to leave FB!!! I would work for him too!!’ I am a loyal Trump supporter but know how to be fair. "

11/11/2020 11:11:39 AM

I'm concerned about how many people are posting about being "locked and loaded." I know a lot of them are out of fear that Biden will try to take their guns (which is ridiculous considering how many times they said that under the last 16 years of Democrat presidents and it never happened). But there are actual Trump cultists out there ready to go to war for him. And they think the military and police will be on their side.

11/12/2020 1:41:27 AM

^^^^ I think there's a large enough difference between Cheeto and military brass to render that similarity meaningless.

11/12/2020 7:06:54 PM

^^

These people are really off in the head. The two Trump houses in my neighborhood still have their Trump flags and signs up. I watched trumps last campaign rally and he literally says “anyone who has ever hurt you, Joe Biden is responsible for” and he wasn’t joking. The rally was filled with constant irrational hate filled statements, and it really seems to endear a certain kind of person to trump.

Will be interesting to see what happens with these people over the next few years... it doesn’t seem like Trump being proved wrong about stuff phases them, when trump loses the election they’ll forget all the lies Trump told them about fraud and keep following.

11/12/2020 10:57:28 PM

My final guess: He simply moves out of the WH in dec/jan to go to 'the winter white house' down in Florida. He doesn't acknowledge his loss. Jan 20th, he simply ceases to be president.

11/13/2020 1:09:30 PM

You know he will continue to hold campaign style rallies and charge admission to make a lot of money. The real question is 4 years enough for the Trump fever to fade.

But I’d really like to see Biden spend no time on Trump once he is in office and make a point to show that Trump and Trumpism are results and symptoms of the problems in America but not the cause.

As a country we have some shit to work out.

11/13/2020 1:41:08 PM

What do you mean when you say Biden? Ideally, Biden will continue the norm of not interfering with the DoJ, but should the DoJ or congress go after Trump while Biden stays silent?

11/13/2020 2:09:57 PM

More so in a sense of speaking rather than legal action. Take the debates for instance where Democratic candidates will talk about all the negative things about Trump over and over again. I am hoping that Biden steps and his administration that he will not take point or blame Trump for all the things that are presently wrong but instead mention the things that he plans to do to fix it and address the systemic issues that have gotten us here (including Trump’s election) in the first place.

11/13/2020 2:53:40 PM

Yeah, I agree the less Biden refers to Trump the better.

11/14/2020 10:27:00 PM

Hopefully the media also stops covering his ridiculous tweets when he's no longer the Prez.

11/15/2020 8:03:34 AM

I'm sure OAN and Newsmax will still cover his tweets as well as posters on Parler and WeMe.

11/15/2020 8:53:48 AM

Yeah, but I was talking about the fake news media.

11/15/2020 10:42:49 AM

I hope I’m to wrong but I think trumps resistance to the election outcome will turn out worse than you all are thinking.

I think ppl are underestimating trumps stable and growing power derived from loyalists and supporters in key places, vs his waning power in the media and social media

His supporters in dc had no hesitation in physically attacking counter protesters and Trump encouraged it on Twitter.

Most Republicans still support him, despite Fox News not indulging his election narrative. What Trump does has no bearing on whomever or whatever certifies a Biden win.

11/15/2020 7:50:05 PM

I hope you're wrong too, but you're probably right.

11/15/2020 9:36:00 PM

I'm not worried about Trump. He's old and lazy. He'll continue to behave like a badly worded Nigerian prince email scam, but he'll quit as soon as the fleece stops covering the cost of the rallies.

I agree the GOP is playing a dangerous game with their mealy-mouthed repudiations of Trump's conspiracies and lies. They did the same thing with the Tea Party and Birtherism, and that got us Trump. I'm worried about what comes after Trump.

11/15/2020 11:43:46 PM

Quote :

"I think ppl are underestimating trumps stable and growing power derived from loyalists and supporters in key places, vs his waning power in the media and social media"

At the moment, his base is not growing. It's just past a peak and on a downward trend. At least some of his voters have accepted that he lost and are moving on. Others think he was cheated but accept that he's not going to be president, and for the moment that's taken the wind out of his sails. More importantly, so does the rapidly dwindling press coverage. Trump's entire political career, such as it is, has depended on the constant media attention lavished upon him. As that tide recedes, so will his support among certain key demographics. Grandma isn't on twitter and ain't gonna learn how to get on Parler. She doesn't know OAN exists because she watches Fox News like she's always done and they're hardly going to tell her that all loyal Trump supporters are watching another network.

This isn't to say his base couldn't come surging back, and I have my fears that it will - the distribution of vaccines is going to be politicized and any little mistake is going to be easy to attack. The economic metrics that Americans seem fixated on are good for now but won't be forever. Trump's idiotic policies are going to have delayed consequences that will start dropping during Biden's term. If Trump wants to stay in politics, he could exploit these easily for a run at 2024.

But right now, he's trending down.

Quote :

"His supporters in dc had no hesitation in physically attacking counter protesters and Trump encouraged it on Twitter."

The counter-protesters were were eager to get into it as well.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2020/11/14/million-maga-march-dc-protests/

Quote :

"When darkness fell, the counterprotesters triggered more mayhem as they harassed Trump’s advocates, stealing red hats and flags and lighting them on fire. Scuffles continued into the night as the provocateurs overturned the tables of vendors who had been selling pro-Trump gear and set off dozens of fireworks, prompting police to pepper-spray them. At 8 p.m., violence broke out five blocks east of the White House between the president’s supporters, who wielded batons, and his black-clad detractors, many of whom had participated in racial justice rallies throughout the summer. As the groups approached the same intersection, they charged each other, brawling for several minutes before police arrived and cleared the area."

So a handful of Trumpy assholes with clubs doesn't worry me, because we've got angry kids with bottles.

What does worry me, in the long term, are the long-term consequences of having a large minority of the population that wants to be politically active but no longer has any faith in democratic institutions as a vehicle for that activity.

11/16/2020 5:21:47 PM

TWW Soap Box is my new fear porn.

11/16/2020 5:34:51 PM

Quote :

"More so in a sense of speaking rather than legal action. Take the debates for instance where Democratic candidates will talk about all the negative things about Trump over and over again. I am hoping that Biden steps and his administration that he will not take point or blame Trump for all the things that are presently wrong but instead mention the things that he plans to do to fix it and address the systemic issues that have gotten us here (including Trump’s election) in the first place."

I'm not after a full-scale, hardcore investigation. But I would like to see the crimes this administration committed prosecuted. I'd like to see Hatch Act prosecutions against ALL White House staffers who knowingly broke the law. I'd like to see us claw back the money that was illegally paid to Trump businesses. And if it can be unequivocally proven that he, personally, broke criminal laws, I want his ass in jail. But these should be secondary to ensuring that this kind of executive overreach is never allowed to happen again.

And I say this as someone who believes that his handling of this pandemic was pure, unabashed treason

[Edited on November 16, 2020 at 7:15 PM. Reason : ]

11/16/2020 7:14:21 PM

You absolutely have to prosecute. Letting Bush cronies off the hook laid the groundwork for people knowing they are safe for anything they do in service to another president. Have to break that chain or future leaders will just keep breaking the law.

11/16/2020 7:24:56 PM

Quote :

"The economic metrics that Americans seem fixated on are good for now but won't be forever. Trump's idiotic policies are going to have delayed consequences that will start dropping during Biden's term."

This is precisely my second greatest concern, behind getting through the period encompassing now through January 8.

11/16/2020 7:49:00 PM

These people have gone WAAAYYYY off the deep end

Quote :

" "We will not be intimidated...We are going to clean this mess up now. President Trump won by a landslide. We are going to prove it. And we are going to reclaim the United States of America for the people who vote for freedom."—Sidney Powell"

https://twitter.com/gop/status/1329490975266398210?s=21

It’s really nuts how Trump managed to drag the entire gop into his delusions.

11/19/2020 4:09:33 PM

Interesting conception of a landslide.

11/19/2020 7:06:31 PM

Giuliani is a physically revolting person

11/19/2020 8:55:53 PM

Saw a far right Facebook page coming to terms with Trump losing, and my looney uncle accepting Trump’s loss.

11/20/2020 9:42:53 PM

They're not delusional, they white supremacists using his delusion to further their own cause and erode democracy

11/20/2020 11:50:09 PM

Yep. Seeing some of my right-leaning FB feed start demanding Cheeto either produce actual evidence or just shut the fuck up and get out. Not seeing much from my uber hard-right folks, who I assume took their bedsheets over to Parler

11/21/2020 9:57:35 AM

12 still in play

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/texas-gop-chair-allen-west-says-scotus-setback-may-call-for-union-of-law-abiding-states

These guys are truly delusional and seditious

[Edited on December 12, 2020 at 8:11 AM. Reason : .]

12/12/2020 8:10:28 AM

Just felt like going back and updating my rank ordering. Lot of options still open, however unlikely they may be.

Quote :

"13) Wins the election: undisputed win 11) Loses the election: disputed loss, loses the office 14) Wins the election: disputed win, retains the office 10) Loses the election: disputed loss, retains the office 12) Loses the election: disputed loss, violence 16) Wins the election: disputed win, violence 9) Loses the election: undisputed loss, peaceful transfer of power 15) Wins the election: disputed win, loses the office 7) Isn't the nominee: primaried 8) Isn't the nominee: convention shenanigans 4) Doesn't finish the term: dies of natural causes 3) Doesn't finish the term: impeached, convicted, removed 2) Doesn't finish the term: 25th amendment 1) Doesn't finish the term: resigns 5) Doesn't finish the term: dies of unnatural causes 6) Isn't the nominee: declines to run"

12/15/2020 9:21:02 PM

Literally all the options you think are “doesn’t finish the term”?

12/15/2020 9:25:15 PM

Pretty sure he thought the ones at the top were most likely

12/15/2020 9:43:08 PM

Oh sorry just saw the others. Yeah 11 or 12 is whats happening, depending on point of view

12/15/2020 9:48:40 PM

I don't know if 11 implies "peaceful transfer of power" and 12 implies, I don't know, civil war? But I think there are subcategories of disputed loss, peaceful, like the govt transfers but Trump refuses to take any part/ever acknowledge, or he eventually gives in and takes part in inauguration or whatever the fuck else.

12/15/2020 10:28:44 PM

Lol out of 1-5 and 11-12, what do you think?

12/15/2020 11:12:19 PM

It's a undisputed loss. One minority group claiming totally unsubstantiated "fraud" doesn't result in a 'disputed election'.

He's indicating he's gonna get dragged out, or just leave in the middle of the night.

[Edited on December 19, 2020 at 1:37 PM. Reason : !]

12/19/2020 1:36:02 PM