Joe Biden's campaign staff "God Trump said 'toledo' today what a nightmare. Now let me take a big sip of coffee and listen to Joe's remarks..."

8/5/2019 12:28:43 PM

lol, bernie sanders went on the joe rogan show

8/7/2019 9:14:50 AM

Biden is currently polling in the lead by a decent margin. Harris has fallen quite a bit but it looks like we are discussing Sanders, Warren, Biden, Harris, and Buttigieg.

My guess is Buttegieg becomes VP off basically any of the above. With Biden’s current margins, I’m curious what needs to happen to knock him down a tier. I thought his previous debate performance was abysmal, so I’m shocked he maintained. But I also suspect most voters aren’t paying much attention at this stage.

8/7/2019 10:46:01 AM

Quote :

"My guess is Buttegieg becomes VP off basically any of the above"

Absolutely no way Warren or Sanders would choose Buttegieg as VP. What would be the point?

8/7/2019 10:48:12 AM

Quote :

"Biden is currently polling in the lead by a decent margin. "

but only because both sanders and warren are still running, however they likely have a lot of supporter overlap which makes biden's lead tenuous

8/7/2019 10:57:04 AM

Collect votes but not be intimidated during the actual presidency, just as with any other VP.

He is solidly in the middle of the moderates and left parts of the party. He comes from the midwest, not coastal states like the most others do. He's young to symbolize youth for several candidates that are quite old. You know and so on and so on.

8/7/2019 10:58:55 AM

if you are using the old convention of geographic coalition building, if sanders was thenominee buttigieg wouldn't make sense. sanders has strong support in the midwest, he would want to pair with a coastal elite by that dated paradigm.

warren or sander's VP would probably come from someone outside of current candidates

8/7/2019 11:05:02 AM

TIL geographic coalition building is the old convention.

8/7/2019 11:12:50 AM

that's not even new or radical

https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/04/23/the-overrated-vice-presidential-home-state-effect

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/election-2016-vice-president-selection-matters-less-than-you-think-213805

https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1992-07-10-mn-1845-story.html

[Edited on August 7, 2019 at 11:33 AM. Reason : .]

8/7/2019 11:24:46 AM

who actually is the best VP candidate right now if it isnt buttgreg?

8/7/2019 11:25:46 AM

bookers speech is really good:
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-booker-gives-gun-policy-speech-at-2015-church-slaying-site

8/7/2019 11:26:01 AM

^^ for which candidate?

8/7/2019 11:29:35 AM

I could easily see Warren choosing Sherrod Brown and would be delighted if she did

8/7/2019 11:31:02 AM

i would hope that democrats don't pick a senator from any states that are even remotely unsafe

8/7/2019 11:39:38 AM

does that mean stacey abrams is off the table?

8/7/2019 12:00:11 PM

well she's not a senator and has already announced she's not running
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/30/us/politics/stacey-abrams-2020.html

[Edited on August 7, 2019 at 12:03 PM. Reason : .]

8/7/2019 12:02:12 PM

well i was mostly responding to the "unsafe" part of your statement but have simply observed her popularity on my facebook. my personal facebook obviously does not translate to the nation so i was simply throwing it out there.

8/7/2019 12:06:14 PM

I feel like a Sanders/Warren or Warren/Sanders ticket would cause the right to collectively lose its mind.

8/7/2019 3:27:59 PM

that implies that they didn’t lose their minds years ago

8/7/2019 3:32:54 PM

it doesn't matter who the nominee is, they will think they are the socialist antichrist

8/7/2019 5:39:05 PM

Quote :

"I feel like a Sanders/Warren or Warren/Sanders ticket would cause the right to collectively lose its mind."

Jesus, don't pick a 70+ year old to be your VP. If the President dies of old age, that sucks, but at least there's an elected VP ready to take over. If a VP dies, the President's nomination to fill the spot has to be confirmed by Congress. You know how much fun getting a confirmation is these days. You want to roll the dice on whether Democrats will control both houses of Congress for all four years? You'd damn sure better hope they run the House, because guess who takes over if there's no VP and the President dies, too.

Of course, I don't think there's any chance Sanders would take VP, so it's not so much him I'm worried about...but please, and especially if we're determined to have a geriatric POTUS, let's have a VP who won't be on the far side of the life expectancy bell curve.

8/7/2019 5:53:38 PM

^Warren/Buttigieg is still my ideal ticket. Age gap, geographic and demographic diversity, a dash of realism to compliment the vision.

8/7/2019 6:51:31 PM

buttgreg is super unpopular with minorities. he absolutely will not be on any ticket.

8/7/2019 7:21:24 PM

Biden has been pretty stable over the past 2 sets of debates.

Still early but he’s got a really solid lead even solid support with black Americans.

Sanders is solidly in second place taking some ground back from Harris. National polls have Biden doing the best against trump but Biden also has the most weak points in a general election too. This is going to be a long election...

8/7/2019 8:45:57 PM

4 years ago Sanders failed to get the support of minority voters in early polls, but this time around he has more support in the black community than the two black candidates combined. Why is that? His policies have not changed one bit.

Because at this point it's almost entirely about name recognition for people who don't watch cable news, which is going to be more likely in poorer communities, which statistically are composed of more people of color.

I'd like to see the numbers on Joe Biden's support among people of color who watched the debates and people of color who didn't and see if he's so far ahead in both groups.

8/7/2019 10:22:34 PM

I forget where I read it but there was an article stating the polls reflect electability over policy. Left leaning voters align more with Wareen, who they also feel ‘won’ the debates, followed by Sanders. However, risking 4 years of Trump is viewed as a high risk, so they bank on Biden.

I’ve said it before; he is not my favorite. I’d vote for him but not with as much gusto as any of the other top 10.

I’m also a closet Yang fan. His points about the future of work are spot on and he is also connecting dots across the cause and effect of many of our systemic social failures. My only issue with him is I don’t see a geriatric, technophobic congress either willing to understand or implement the ideas he had in place. Unfortunately, the changes will have to be much closer to happening (or approaching no return like climate change) before he’d be able to execute.

8/7/2019 10:25:17 PM

I feel like Yang would be a solid VP pick.

I also hope that Warren and Sanders have some kind of contingency plan in place for one to bow out to the other before the primaries get going or they're going to split the progressive wing and Biden will coast into the nomination.

8/8/2019 7:49:02 AM

for which candidate?

8/8/2019 9:08:01 AM

Credit due... Biden’s speech was good yesterday.

Still think he’s a dinosaur but it was as strong a counter as I’ve seen him make.

^^ Warren maybe, but lol at Bernie ever doing that in a million years

[Edited on August 8, 2019 at 9:17 AM. Reason : X]

8/8/2019 9:16:32 AM

Quote :

"I also hope that Warren and Sanders have some kind of contingency plan in place for one to bow out to the other before the primaries get going or they're going to split the progressive wing and Biden will coast into the nomination."

they would be fine through the feb primaries, they would just need to decide by early march

what ideally would happen if one candidate dropped out and endorsed the other would be those delegates moving to the endorsed candidate, but I don't think the DNC has any rules requiring them to

8/8/2019 9:38:18 AM

if I recall correctly, Yang has stated that he has no interest in being VP. it's go big or go home.

the only way I can see him taking VP is if the nominee comes out in favor of the Freedom Dividend, and wants to tap Yang as the person to implement it. but if the nominee does support the Freedom Dividend and wants Yang involved, just create a new department to oversee it (which would be a super tiny department...that's a big benefit of UBI in the first place, it's straightforward as fuck to administer) and put him in charge of it, no need to try to dangle a VP spot that Yang almost certainly doesn't even want.

[Edited on August 8, 2019 at 9:45 AM. Reason : .]

8/8/2019 9:43:07 AM

Yang's right-wing UBI has no place in Democratic policy. There are left wing version that are far preferable. And, personally, I think we should be providing basic services for free instead of giving people money to be taken advantage of in the market.

UBI to pay for travel, entertainment, and personal enrichment? Sure why not. Let's scrap some yachts to pay for it.

[Edited on August 8, 2019 at 10:43 AM. Reason : .]

8/8/2019 10:42:23 AM

Quote :

" Yang has stated that he has no interest in being VP. it's go big or go home."

Every candidate says this. It's obligatory. Nobody goes into the Super Bowl saying, "You know, it's so exciting just to be here - even if I lose, at least I played in the big game!" Same with running for president.

If Yang somehow went from unknown with zero chance to being offered the VP spot, he'd snatch it in a heartbeat.

8/8/2019 10:43:29 AM

what would Yang add to a ticket, why would anyone want to pick him?

[Edited on August 8, 2019 at 11:23 AM. Reason : I guess this question is for Exiled]

8/8/2019 11:22:43 AM

Yang just qualified for the next debate.

Will be interesting to see if he leans in to "this is a reality show debate", which I think is mostly valid criticism.

They should give candidates equal time, split in half, to give a "speech" the first half and responses to others' speech the second half, lincoln douglas style.

[Edited on August 8, 2019 at 12:52 PM. Reason : ]

8/8/2019 12:51:09 PM

I don't think a L-D style debate is possible with this many people, how would that even work?

8/8/2019 12:55:20 PM

Quote :

"Every candidate says this."

Except for Mike Gravel. But he dropped out and endorsed Sanders already.

8/8/2019 3:35:20 PM

Here's something I thought up while thinking back to my days of high school debate team:

Instead of two groups of 10 candidates each going for 2.5 hours at a time, they could capped the first debate at 16, do four groups of four, and give each group one hour. And each additional debate round should let in four fewer candidates.

If the candidates were seeded 1-16 like NCAA tournaments, then the first debate round would have been:
#1 Biden, #8 Klobuchar, #9 Castro, #16 Williamson
#2 Sanders, #7 Booker, #10 Yang, #15 Inslee
#3 Warren, #6 O'Rourke, #11 Ryan, #14 Hickenlooper
#4 Buttigieg, #5 Harris, #12 Gabbard, #13 Gillibrand

Based on changes in polling and cutting the field down to 12, the second debate would have been:
#1 Biden, #6 O'Rourke, #7 Booker, #12 Gillibrand
#2 Sanders, #5 Buttigieg, #8 Klobuchar, #11 Gabbard
#3 Warren, #4 Harris, #9 Castro, #10 Yang

And based on current polling, the upcoming third debate (Sept 12-13) right now would be:
#1 Biden, #4 Sanders, #5 Buttigieg, #8 Booker
#2 Warren, #3 Harris, #6 Klobuchar, #7 Steyer

8/8/2019 4:13:28 PM

Which polling aggregate is showing Warren and Harris ahead of Sanders?

8/8/2019 4:20:12 PM

Nate Silver has had that order on his power board for some reason
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-i-think-the-candidates-stand-after-the-second-debate/

lol



[Edited on August 8, 2019 at 4:48 PM. Reason : no polls though]

8/8/2019 4:46:09 PM

lmao

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-primaries/democratic/national/

8/8/2019 6:14:13 PM

Sorry, my bad, misread the title of the poll I saw. The order I posted above is for Iowa alone.

Bernie should be #2, but RCP's acerage from 7/31-8/6 has him at 15.8% and Warren at 15.5%, so she's close to taking over 2nd place. Harris is 4th at 8.3%

8/8/2019 7:10:45 PM

Quote :

"Joe Biden slip-up in Iowa tonight. "Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids." Yikes...have fun mitigating that one. https://t.co/m2VxZbnFHF"

8/9/2019 12:19:36 AM

FFS. Enough with boomers.

Quote :

"Except for Mike Gravel. But he dropped out and endorsed Sanders already"

The teens endorsed Bernie. Gravel himself endorsed... Tulsi Gabbard.

8/9/2019 10:45:35 AM

Gravel endorsed Sanders, then later said he endorses Sanders and Gabbard

8/9/2019 11:08:16 AM

Truly do not understand the weird faction of the left that is obsessed with Gabbard (some over Sanders even). Such an obvious con artist.

8/9/2019 11:47:52 AM

Quote :

""Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids.""

lol at politics and bias. If anyone on the right had said this, they would be slammed by everybody (including TWW) except foxnews.

Biden says it, and he just misspoke....

8/9/2019 1:04:16 PM

I'm not much of a Biden apologist but the reports are that he immediately corrected himself. Is that not what happened?

8/9/2019 1:12:29 PM

He did about 2 seconds after he made the comment, because he knew he'd misspoken. It was a total Freudian slip and the more he keeps talking, the worse it gets.

8/9/2019 1:19:53 PM

That entirely misses the point.

His comment shows a clear underlying association of what it means to be black and what it means to be white, with a strong implication of bias. Being responsible for policy, guiding and progressing the country, what he believes is actually more important than what he says.

This isn’t just the type of gaffe in which one says the wrong name or uses a word that sounds like another but has a different meaning. No, this is an actual window into his thinking.

8/9/2019 1:23:35 PM