First true test for the current administration.

8/25/2017 8:49:14 PM

SOMEBODY SET UP TEXAS THE BOMB!

8/25/2017 9:27:16 PM

Eyewall crossing over now official landfall may be 11:00 pm

It's apparently going to stall and drop rain all weekend...There's no way it stays anything over a Cat2 from here I hope it dies off quickly because that's going to be a huge catastrophe otherwise.

8/25/2017 10:58:03 PM

Well, it's not looking too good.

8/27/2017 2:47:31 PM

I imagine the death toll once things start to recede is going to be very bad. Way too many people in Houston didn't leave because they weren't in the path of landfall despite at least a weeks worth of notice that epic rainfall was coming. This may break the all time record for rainfall from a tropical system its quite astonishing how much rain is falling.

8/27/2017 8:45:30 PM

This is an example of why wind speed / hurricane category # isn't necessarily indicative of damage and danger

8/28/2017 12:08:37 AM

it certainly is at the site of landfall

8/28/2017 8:20:50 AM

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/potential-tropical-depression-ten-tropical-storm-irma-southeast-coast-florida

[Edited on August 28, 2017 at 10:25 AM. Reason : irmagherd]

8/28/2017 10:24:57 AM

We were at Topsail yesterday. Definitely could tell something was up with the surf.

8/28/2017 12:50:28 PM

Quote :

"I imagine the death toll once things start to recede is going to be very bad. Way too many people in Houston didn't leave because they weren't in the path of landfall despite at least a weeks worth of notice that epic rainfall was coming. "

The governor was advising people to evacuate Houston while city officials were telling people to hunker down and not leave. If the city didn't have the intelligence to at least advice people in flood prone parts of Houston to find higher ground prior to the storm, even if just somewhere else in the city, then at least some of these deaths will be attributable to the bad advice. Regardless of the final path of the storm, the rainfall was always the biggest concern.

We won't know the death toll of this storm for a couple months though, as they'll have to search homes to find the bodies that were trapped inside.

8/28/2017 2:14:28 PM

Folks were told to stay in place by the local government because they didn't have enough lead time to make sure people weren't stuck on the roads. In Houston, the major roadways are designed as flood paths. It's an engineering decision to save property. If flooding hits and the roads are crowded you'll have lots and lots of deaths. It seems odd, but the advice to shelter in place was the safer call.

8/28/2017 2:27:18 PM

didn't 100 people die stuck in traffic during rita?

8/28/2017 3:10:05 PM

They were forecasting the huge amounts of rains a long ways out before he even became a depression again so there was plenty of time. I dont disagree with the thinking there and I am not blaming them. I am saying too many people stayed who should have known better it seems.

8/28/2017 3:25:10 PM

^^a quarter of those deaths came from a single bus accident, and it isn't necessary to evacuate everyone for 100 miles when the risk is severe flooding and not 150mph winds. Evacuating 600,000 people 20 miles away is a lot easier than evacuating 6 million people 100 miles inland. Telling people to stay in place when simply staying with friends on the other side of town seems extremely shortsighted. Everyone living near the reservoirs off of Buffalo Bayou should have been informed it was not safe to stay there.

8/28/2017 6:14:13 PM

Quote :

"In Houston, the major roadways are designed as flood paths. It's an engineering decision to save property"

Interesting, I did not know this, but if you look at those before/after Houston photos the roads are pretty canal-like. Hopefully they can convey the water out of town ASAP.

8/28/2017 7:40:05 PM

This thing has a crazy path, it's looped back into the Gulf and regaining strength.

8/28/2017 10:02:32 PM

Do you have a visual for that? radar,etc

8/29/2017 9:09:18 AM

^, ^^ - Some talk about here: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/harvey-moves-back-over-water-historic-rainfall-will-continue

Overall I feel the Category 6 blog at wunderground is solid and easily digested.

[Edited on August 29, 2017 at 12:38 PM. Reason : ^]

8/29/2017 12:38:12 PM

Thanks! i just wanted to see some actual graphs and shit

8/29/2017 2:30:33 PM

Hearing models are hinting at another system in the gulf into next week... hopefully they are wrong

8/29/2017 2:53:22 PM

Time to start watching Irma it appears gonna take a track that has potential to cause us issues down the road

8/30/2017 8:27:49 PM

Tropical Storm Irma

Has the East coast or Gulf in it's sights.

Also, models have another storm forming near Houston next week








[Edited on August 31, 2017 at 10:37 AM. Reason : s]

8/31/2017 10:33:26 AM

already a Cat 2

easily will be a 5 soon

8/31/2017 11:04:58 AM

Where's Irma goin?

8/31/2017 7:56:34 PM

Models trended in our favor overnight it appears giving a better chance of a fish storm. I'd wait till at least monday to really have any slight confidence in track though.

9/1/2017 8:12:29 AM

9/3/2017 12:48:35 PM

That cant be right...am I looking at a storm with 883 Mb of pressure in the eye?

Wouldn't that make it the strongest storm ever to hit mainland?

9/3/2017 12:49:57 PM

Yeah PSU faculty had a skype session yesterday and the idea of adding a cat 6 came up.

9/3/2017 1:13:07 PM

I think it is safe to say it won't have a central pressure of 883mb. I would take that with a huge grain of salt to say the least. Focus on the track forecasting for now. We are terrible with intensity prediction still.

9/3/2017 2:15:18 PM

Even with a huge grain of salt, a pressure even 50 mb higher than that is hugely strong for a typical east coast storm, even the strong ones.

[Edited on September 3, 2017 at 2:31 PM. Reason : Fran was 946 by comparison]

9/3/2017 2:30:32 PM

record lowest pressure for hurricane is 882mb lol

safe to say this storm will get stronger as it moves into warmer waters over the next few days, but I have doubts it'll get as strong as the GFS has shown

9/3/2017 2:49:27 PM

There is no doubt it will likely be a formidable storm. I am not saying it won't be. Either way the 12z Euro keeps it from making a landfall and it right hooks away from Hatteras. Obviously that doesn't really change that this could be a significant threat as it is one op run. The aircraft will be out there this afternoon and that data will be ingested into future model runs beginning tonight most likely.

9/3/2017 3:12:02 PM

This looks enjoyable

9/3/2017 6:52:35 PM

100 Knots in Raleigh

9/3/2017 8:07:44 PM

the bigger question is this going to fuck with Opening day.

9/4/2017 9:56:31 AM

Opening day of what?

9/4/2017 10:23:08 AM

State football game.

9/4/2017 11:05:16 AM

think you're a week too late on that one

9/4/2017 12:06:25 PM

For fucks sake, our first home game is Saturday.

9/4/2017 4:28:48 PM

Hurricane games are fun

9/4/2017 5:58:35 PM

Please guys I have a match

9/4/2017 10:34:23 PM

Er so is that last pic like THE forecast or just a wild outlier type possibility?

[Edited on September 5, 2017 at 2:20 AM. Reason : Assuming the latter but asking for a friend ]

9/5/2017 2:20:12 AM

i don't think it's gonna fuck with the football. looks like it would be next week before we got anything from it (depending, of course, on where it goes...if it comes here at all)

9/5/2017 7:16:26 AM

Thanks bud.

9/5/2017 7:21:00 AM

9/5/2017 7:40:33 AM

Keys are looking to get rolled.

9/5/2017 8:17:00 AM

Certainly not attending a hurricane game for marshburn, marshville, forbush, forman, or whatever shit team it is we're scheduled to play.

9/5/2017 8:37:52 AM

Thursday into Friday looks like the time frame where we will start to have a better grasp on where this thing is actually gonna go. Models have shifted back east a bit this morning putting us at risk again. They all expect that 90 degree turn but where that turn happens is going to be the most important thing at this point. Either way she is a monster Cat 5 now headed at the islands so someone is getting fucked regardless.

9/5/2017 8:43:20 AM

Quote :

"Certainly not attending a hurricane game for marshburn, marshville, forbush, forman, or whatever shit team it is we're scheduled to play."

dont think it'll be a hurricane game here. we'd be getting hit next week from everything i've read/seen

9/5/2017 9:33:59 AM

GFS a bit east again, sends it up east coast of florida then west turn into the savannah area.

9/5/2017 12:31:45 PM