So its basically going to come down to Wednesday/Thursday?

185 mph SUSTAINED winds, geez...this thing is growing stronger, could have 200 mph winds before long.

9/5/2017 1:55:00 PM

Turn probably doesnt happen till thursday or friday. Until that happens we wont really know what to expect here.

9/5/2017 2:00:21 PM

It remains to be seen if it exceeds 185 mph. That is a real tough thing to do. I wouldn't be surprised to see the start of an eyewall replacement cycle soon which would weaken the storm at least temporarily. It remains to be seen what it looks like as it goes by the islands. It could experience some disruption as nears Hispaniola and then goes near/over Cuba. Of course the water between Cuba and FL is essentially jet fuel for hurricanes.

9/5/2017 3:45:36 PM

Models show the wind speeds decreasing down in the 140s when it gets towards Cuba and Florida. It's pretty uncommon to sustain wind speeds in the 180s when it encounters land, even if it's just islands and not a huge continent.

9/5/2017 3:57:32 PM

Newest GFS is trending east again fucking us here in Raleigh again yuck

9/5/2017 6:37:22 PM

Can you link that?

9/5/2017 6:40:00 PM

9/5/2017 6:45:23 PM

9/5/2017 6:45:46 PM

lookimg for thr rare georgia landfall

9/5/2017 7:45:08 PM

Interested in this storm for NC for the data and experience, but not looking forward to it because of our horses, pecan farm and beach property.

There's a few models that track it over NC, looking like a Florida initial hit at least though.

9/5/2017 10:22:51 PM

getting your "beach property" hit by a hurricane is like the best thing that could happen to you.

9/6/2017 1:31:31 AM

Euro and GFS finally came into somewhat of agreement overnight it appears. They are going with a near miss on east coast of florida and landfall near Charleston, SC. Will now have to watch if they become consistent with that.

9/6/2017 8:26:11 AM

mother fucker.

9/6/2017 9:37:24 AM

GFS should be running now will see if it remains consistent or shifts again

9/6/2017 10:57:32 AM

This GFS run not looking good for Charleston/Savannah http://wxug.us/257qr

9/6/2017 11:50:46 AM

What's the best way to transport/keep frozen...frozen breastmilk? I think my wife would trade our house being blown away as long as we didn't lose 3+ months of breastmilk.

9/6/2017 11:53:48 AM

what's wrong with coolers?

if you don't like coolers get a 12v fridge/freezer
https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=sr_ex_n_0?rh=i%3Aaps%2Ck%3A12v+fridge+freezer&keywords=12v+fridge+freezer&ie=UTF8&qid=1504713421

[Edited on September 6, 2017 at 11:57 AM. Reason : .]

9/6/2017 11:55:50 AM

dry ice in a cooler, my g

9/6/2017 12:02:19 PM

yeti

9/6/2017 12:05:23 PM

RIP the virgin islands.

Why does it take these models so long to run?

Seems like the early GFS models are looking to be the correct ones.

9/6/2017 12:07:27 PM

My initial thought was that we'd try to store it in a way to keep it frozen in Charleston while we jetted. But now I'm thinking we'll take it with us in a cooler and take the mini-freezer with us and just plug it in wherever we stop (sis-in-law in Columbia or sister in Raleigh).

[Edited on September 6, 2017 at 12:10 PM. Reason : .]

9/6/2017 12:09:58 PM

Thats 3 runs in a row from GFS into Charleston area close enough to coast though a few miles could put it inland over florida and severely weaken it at least.

9/6/2017 12:11:29 PM

Keep the updates coming like that if you can.

9/6/2017 12:37:49 PM

Euro runs around like 2:30pm or something next

9/6/2017 12:38:46 PM

Latest 5 day forecast on WU makes it look just like Matthew, skims east coast of FL, drops form 4 to 3 at Canaveral

9/6/2017 12:55:33 PM

So current models show it skimming the FL coast then hitting near Charleston?

9/6/2017 1:37:06 PM

More like Savannah, but close enough. Realistically, we're still 2 days away from having any confidence about how this storm is going to turn.

9/6/2017 1:46:41 PM

Matthew sat down and churned up the Atlantic. what are the models saying as far as time it's going to affect the areas it hits? Like significant rainfall. Matthew was only a Cat 1.

9/6/2017 1:50:51 PM

It shouldn't linger. Rainfall totals will likely be under 12 inches except for the coastal location where the eye comes ashore.

Take this image as a example of the potential rain impact. This forecast will change in location, but the magnitudes will be about right.


[Edited on September 6, 2017 at 2:07 PM. Reason : more info]

9/6/2017 2:06:44 PM

Been steady at 185 but pressure trending up, not down

9/6/2017 2:20:05 PM

Euro is a bit west from GFS would have it closer to coastline or over it for a bit may weaken it some if thats the case. Still looks like GA/SC border though.

9/6/2017 2:32:55 PM

and that placement is Monday?

what are the models showing for Jose? Looks like it is right on Irma's heels...

9/6/2017 2:55:10 PM

I suspect that Jose will be a fish storm for the most part. Model guidance is all over the place however. The majority over models have it threaten the leeward islands and then turn north out to sea and east of Bermuda.

9/6/2017 3:02:33 PM

Yeah I havent paid much attention to Jose yet but seems like it kinda meanders around out there for a while then heads OTS currently.

[Edited on September 6, 2017 at 3:32 PM. Reason : .]

9/6/2017 3:31:56 PM

Jbrick. Put frozen breastmilk in a quart bag then put that bag into a gallon bag of water. Freeze it. That will give you extra protection.

9/6/2017 4:57:47 PM

^

9/6/2017 5:38:08 PM

Feel a little better after this morning's forecast (knock on wood). If Florida can slow it down and it hits Charleston as a Cat 1...then we'll stick it out. If gets pushed further east and starts to ride the coast, then we'll head inland to Columbia. Hopefully we'll find out soon enough to be able to actually leave. We'll see..

9/7/2017 7:02:28 AM

Euro stuck with its up florida coast into Georgia thoughts overnight.

GFS is east with landfall somewhere in SC. One run had Myrtle Beach up through greensboro probably the following was Charleston up through Charlotte. I suspect models will continue to move back and forth between wilmington and south florida until the turn actually happens. Tough one to plan for thats for sure.

Here was the more concerning run for us overnight





[Edited on September 7, 2017 at 8:36 AM. Reason : .]

9/7/2017 8:31:02 AM

9/7/2017 8:40:34 AM

If I had to guess based on the more recent models it looked like it was favoring a more western shift with Raleigh spared from a direct hit like the model above.

9/7/2017 8:53:19 AM

Yeah the run after put it back into the Charleston area

9/7/2017 9:18:44 AM

Dat 190% Hugo track

[Edited on September 7, 2017 at 9:29 AM. Reason : Well, at least post landfall. I guess Hugo was quite as far south down in the Caribbean ]

9/7/2017 9:28:11 AM

Yeah things could get nasty in Charlotte if it takes that inland track

9/7/2017 9:39:09 AM

It looks like SC is going to get destroyed

9/7/2017 10:42:21 AM

RIP jbrick

9/7/2017 11:59:02 AM

GFS west again landfall at GA/SC border again

9/7/2017 12:04:26 PM

So what can we expect in Raleigh? Cat 1 or tropical storm like stuff?

9/7/2017 12:05:57 PM

Yeah monday night into Tuesday it would be heavy rain and breezy obviously the more north it tracks the more wind we will see. Hopefully it doesnt stick around too long so flooding doesnt become a major concern. Charlotte would be a fair amount nastier I'd imagine.

9/7/2017 12:08:11 PM

We've definitely seen damage in Charlotte and west before both from flooding (see Frances and Ivan in WNC) as well as that combo of a soaking rain and gusty winds that seems to make big trees conveniently fall on the nearest power line (see every tropical system to blow through Charlotte since forever).


Kinda small potatos compared to everything in Irma's path right now though.

[Edited on September 7, 2017 at 12:17 PM. Reason : Smh at autocorrect. We're supposed to let AI drive cars soon? Fuck me.]

9/7/2017 12:16:44 PM

My Corpus Christi, TX house survived Harvey. Will my Jacksonville, FL house survive Irma!??! I have way less equity in the Jax house, and it's significantly farther from the water, and not in a flood zone... but we'll see!

9/7/2017 12:21:45 PM