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Quote :

"we're gonna lose in 2026 and 2028 aren't we"

2026 despite trumps best efforts trying to get more seats in the house I think dems take control of house, but similar to 2022 where the losses weren't as bad as expected. Then dems will trip over themselves with such a small majority

2028 I can't see an outcome where Trump doesn't rig things in a manner that ensures his control of the country(seizing voting machines, crying fraud, disenfranchising voters with voter ID kinda stuff, insurrection act type stuff, using ICE/military to control things etc)

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 2:22 PM. Reason : More]

1/15/2026 2:20:49 PM

Quote :

"2028 I can't see an outcome where Trump doesn't rig things in a manner that ensures his control of the country(seizing voting machines, crying fraud, disenfranchising voters with voter ID kinda stuff, insurrection act type stuff, using ICE/military to control things etc)"

it's 100% a concern, but I wouldn't lean into the "he's 100% going to do it and it's 100% inevitable"

the bigger concern imo is that the Dems are probably going to put up another loser candidate while the fringes suck all the air out of the room with their loser messaging, and Vance or Rubio end up winning fair and square

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 2:29 PM. Reason : which is why i keep my focus on encouraging dems to get their act together. just like i tried to tell y'all in 23/24 that biden was gonna lose it for us but everybody was distracted]

1/15/2026 2:28:08 PM

^^
Yes Fox News would criticize it no matter what. Democrats could say “white people are the best” and Fox News would attack them for it. I feel like we all should learn by now not to worry too much about the Fox News crowd. Break through that — I see it happening online with Parker Malloy and that kid on cnn all the time. The genuine displays of anger like Frey in Minnesota etc.

At the same time we still need to attack and degrade Fox News as much as possible, hammer them with lawsuits and regulation etc..

Trump has never gotten more than 50% of the vote. Democrats don’t need to pick off much more people to win elections.

1/15/2026 3:25:01 PM

Quote :

"I feel like we all should learn by now not to worry too much about the Fox News crowd"

Like in 2024?

1/15/2026 3:35:45 PM

Biden should never have ran but Kamala was a cop. Kamala and mitt Romney are barely distinguishable.

1/15/2026 3:46:25 PM

Centrists have had every position of power for decades, progressives have never had a final presidential candidate and struggle to make to even statewide elections in most cases. But, somehow, they are also dominating primaries and at fault for Trump.

1/15/2026 4:32:47 PM

tutt-tutting over the poll-tested way to gently describe getting rid of Trumps gestapo is surely the way to win the hearts and minds of voters



[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 5:02 PM. Reason : .]

1/15/2026 4:40:22 PM

Quote :

"Centrists have had every position of power for decades"

correct. establishment moderates of both parties should have figured out why they lost the trust of Americans a long time ago.

Quote :

"MAKE ESTABLISHMENT POLITICIANS GREAT AGAIN this has been my central thesis for how many years now? if regular politicians will just be Excellent, then there won't be any need for the populace to decide they need to take a chance on populists."

Quote :

"progressives have never had a final presidential candidate and struggle to make to even statewide elections in most cases"

there's a reason they keep losing too. progressives should have figured out why they are not appealing to 80% of Americans a long time ago.

Quote :

"But, somehow, they are also dominating primaries and at fault for Trump"

dominating primaries???

they're "at fault" for trump in the sense that they kept pushing for unpopular policies and in the most obnoxious self-righteous ways possible.

Quote :

"The enlightened centrist logic is simple: if the left does something bad, it's the left's fault if the right does something bad, it's the right's fault if the centrist does something bad, it's the centrist's fault"

when the centrists do something bad (eg biden run for reelection), i say it's their fault. if there were people in TSB insisting biden was awesome, you would have seen me pushing back on them.

when the right does something bad (eg trump threaten to invade greenland), i say it's their fault. if there were people in TSB insisting we SHOULD invade greenland, you would see me pushing back on them.

when the left does something bad (insist on abolishing ICE instead of merely demanding "traditional American immigration enforcement"), i say it's their fault. and so y'all seeing me push back on it.

equal opportunity tutt-tutting

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 6:08 PM. Reason : poll-tested ways to win the hearts and minds of voters]

1/15/2026 5:59:16 PM

And when Benjamin Netanyahu's government does something bad (eg perpetuating a genocide), you say it's the Palestinian's fault. You push back on any blame on his regime.

1/15/2026 6:05:05 PM

Quote :

"dominating primaries???"

I'm literally responding to your tweets

It's also funny to keep getting popularity lectured since you are the definition of fringe centrist, supporting more than your share of heavily losing candidates

1/15/2026 7:32:45 PM

Quote :

"I'm literally responding to your tweets"

ah. you're referring to "This means the fringes of each party elect the candidates for the general election. This is not good."

i thought you meant "they are also dominating primaries" in the sense that the fringes are WINNING most of the primaries. fringe candidates are still only winning like ~10-30% of notable primary races depending on your criteria for "fringe".

i see the impact of the fringes on primaries more as a selective pressure in the ecosystem of primary candidates, and the downstream impact on general elections (eg stein vs robinson). fringe candidates can push more centrist candidates toward the fringe, or make them less likely to push back on fringe views.

Quote :

"It's also funny to keep getting popularity lectured since you are the definition of fringe centrist, supporting more than your share of heavily losing candidates"

that's a fair point. i suppose the difference is when my preferred primary candidates lose, or my preferred policy prescriptions don't have sufficient public support, i don't go around calling everybody names.

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 7:51 PM. Reason : oh hi nighthawk nice to see you. lemme help clear up your misunderstanding. when israel does bad things, it's israel's fault. when palestine (or we'll say specifically the palestinian leaders eg hamas) do bad things, it's those palestinian leader's fault. agreed?]

1/15/2026 7:50:07 PM

I mean i think bw the two of us you are definitely the one more inclined to call names

My preferred policies might suck but I think I'm pretty dang respectful here (these days anyway before someone digs my post history )

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 7:56 PM. Reason : E]

1/15/2026 7:56:19 PM

Quote :

"I mean i think bw the two of us you are definitely the one more inclined to call names"

have i called people names? I suppose it's possible in a moment of frustration I have. I am only human. you're welcome to dig through my post history and let me know when. I will retract and repent as appropriate.

Quote :

"My preferred policies might suck but I think I'm pretty dang respectful here"

I suppose you are.

Quote :

"We may not always agree on everything, but that is completely normal and ok and even beneficial and you generally treat others with respect and I'm glad for your presence on this site"

[Edited on January 15, 2026 at 8:05 PM. Reason : allah yebarek feek wa yahdeek]

1/15/2026 8:05:40 PM

Wa Iyyakum

(I even let Google Ai give me that)

1/15/2026 8:35:33 PM

You guys hanging hugging out? Cause I'll hang hug out

1/15/2026 8:39:56 PM

If you can't look at what ICE is doing right now and see that it is fundamentally irredeemable, then I'm not sure what else there is to say. The agency's actions show that it is rotten to its core in a way that can't be fixed in any way. Everyone in it should be fired, with most of them prosecuted.

I want our immigration laws enforced. None of these people can be trusted with even a shred of that responsibility. To patrol the streets of America with masks and no identification and disappear people based on their fucking race is patently evil. Period. Full stop. To take part in that in any way whatsoever makes YOU fucking evil. There was no such thing as a "good" concentration camp guard. In the same way, at this point, there is no such thing as a "good" ICE agent. Fuck ICE. Fuck it to death.

1/16/2026 12:30:55 AM