To echo others, early voting in primaries makes no sense unless you absolutely have to. Races can change drastically in a week or two. In general elections in contrast, you know how stuff is going to look 2 months out.

3/1/2020 9:06:33 PM

"moderates and conservatives" are pseudo-obsolete terms that no longer apply quite the way they used to. Warren has a mass appeal to educated suburban and coastal liberals. The "upsides" you're saying Warren doesn't have are the exact things that make her more palatable to the coastal elite. Also, her identify as a potential first female president, gives her a wider appeal than she would otherwise have. She's definitely not what the establshment wants, but things are different now, and the more realistic the threat of a bernie nomination becomes, the more willing the establishment will be to accept warren as a worst case scenario. It helps that she has drifted to the right since being the frontrunner.

Of course, they would never "choose" warren, but if Bernie has like 48% of the delegates and its warren or "burn down the party", they'd likely choose Warren.

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 12:22 AM. Reason : things are different now. ]

3/2/2020 12:22:00 AM

^obvs didnt read the link, lol

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 7:45 AM. Reason : V]

3/2/2020 7:45:45 AM

what are warren supporter's thoughts on her campaign saying she is running to contest the convention?

3/2/2020 9:11:35 AM

About 7 or 8 people at work today voiced that they were upset that they voted early because their 'nominee' dropped out. All of which were Pete, no Tom.

From speaking with them, we all have the same concerns. We feel like Biden is senile and that Bernie is more left than what we prefer. We're all interested in Warren as a second choice and pulling for a Warren Hail Mary right now.

While I can't speak for all the Pete voters, all of the ones at work (men, women, straight, gay, white, minority) would go Warren in a heartbeat, so maybe she'll get momentum from here on. Had Pete not been in at all, anecdotally, it sounds like she could have had a much stronger Iowa/New Hampshire performance, which should could ride right about now.

If her data shows the same, I don't blame her for staying in. I'm also keen on her staying because it removes some Bernie votes, and while I honestly think I may loathe Biden more than Bernie, I suspect I may prefer the overall Biden ticket more (Biden/Warren, Biden/Buttegig, etc etc).

3/2/2020 9:59:27 AM

I crunched numbers in my county in Indiana in 2016 which after the result of Trump winning all 9 districts Cruz dropped out of the race. My congressional district was the strongest Cruz did in the state and my county was 1 of 5 Cruz won over Trump in the state. In the week beforehand, Cruz/Kasich did a deal of Kasich's voters voting for Cruz in an effort to deny Trump the nomination. Trump tried to play this up as "they're aligning up against me" which seemed to be the political take on all this after the fact of it backfired on Cruz, but looking at results, comparing election day voters to early voters, it appeared to have worked some.

Quote :

"Early Voters In-Person - 16.0% of total - Trump 49.0%, Cruz 38.7%, Kasich 9.8%, Other 2.5% Early Voters Mail - 2.9% of total - Cruz 39.0%, Trump 38.7%, Kasich 19.7%, Other 2.6% Election Day Voters - 81.1% of total - Cruz 47.0%, Trump 44.1%, Kasich 6.5%, Other 2.4%"

This race and others I've determined "Early Voters Mail" is a great surrogate for what does the party establishment think.

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 10:24 AM. Reason : /]

3/2/2020 10:20:13 AM

If her data showed that they probably would have so instead of saying they were staying to contest the convention, no?

Also, jfc just give us RCV, it would make candidates dropping out not an issue and solve so many other problems

3/2/2020 10:21:52 AM

North Carolina Democrats' delegate breakdown:

Quote :

"CD1 6 CD2 8 CD3 4 CD4 9 CD5 3 CD6 7 CD7 5 CD8 5 CD9 5 CD10 4 CD11 5 CD12 8 CD13 3 PLEO 14 At-Large 24 Total Delegates 110"

Candidates:

Quote :

"Michael Farrand Bennet Joseph Robinette "Joe" Biden, Jr. Michael Rubens "Mike" Bloomberg Cory Anthony Booker Peter Paul Montgomery "Pete" Buttigieg Julián Castro John Kevin Delaney Tulsi Gabbard Amy Jean Klobuchar No Preference Deval Laurdine Patrick Bernard "Bernie" Sanders Thomas Fahr "Tom" Steyer Elizabeth Ann Warren Marianne Williamson Andrew Yang "

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 11:42 AM. Reason : /]

3/2/2020 11:42:24 AM

https://twitter.com/cbs_herridge/status/1234486902226661378?s=21

We back again.

Also, I’ve heard some rumors of a new caravan set to start heading north on Sept 15.

Just absolute trash, the entire GOP.

3/2/2020 11:45:18 AM

Quote :

" Lindsey Graham @LindseyGrahamSC · Feb 29 Congratulations to Joe and Jill Biden, and the entire Biden team, on the well deserved big win in the #SCDemocraticPrimary. Best of luck in the future. #Socialism goes down hard tonight in South Carolina."

3/2/2020 11:51:59 AM

i'm also curious how warren supporters feel about her super PAC reversal, does it impact your impression of her?

3/2/2020 12:32:14 PM

Klobuchar out and endorsing Biden today.

3/2/2020 1:37:33 PM

everyone doing their part to keep sanders from winning, including warren

3/2/2020 1:40:35 PM

I feel like this helps Bernie but they must have new data that Amy voters were desserting for Bernie anyway so now they are doing this to try and usher her voters to biden before they vote bernie.

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 1:48 PM. Reason : you broke news nym, nice job.]

3/2/2020 1:41:09 PM

fox news not covering it?

3/2/2020 1:48:23 PM

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2020/03/02/amy-klobuchar-ends-her-white-house-bid/2011474001/

3/2/2020 1:49:29 PM

i think buttigieg was the top second choice for klobuchar supporters, looking at an older poll biden may be their new second choice

3/2/2020 1:59:34 PM

It’s gonna be hilarious when the Bloomberg vanity play actually prevents Biden from doing as well as he may otherwise. The hubris of old, rich dudes.

^ I wonder how much momentum (whether Sanders off NV or Biden off SC) plays in the second choices? They are by nature less conviction and likely easier to sway.

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 2:03 PM. Reason : Volatility must be high]

3/2/2020 2:02:21 PM

in the "how certain are you with your choice" (or however they worded it), i remember klobuchar supporters being the lowest by a substantial margin so yeah who knows where her support goes

buttigieg and klobuchar i think were really hurt by never being able to connect with voters of color, buttigieg specifically probably could have knocked off biden except for black people really not liking him. klobuchar's support wasn't much better, and with the protests starting up for her prosecuting an innocent person was probably only going to get worse

3/2/2020 2:07:57 PM

The national 2nd choices are not as important as 2nd choices in the upcoming states. In Minnesota, the only state where amy is above 5% (and leading), Biden is wildly unpopular and Bernie stands more to gain.

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 2:13 PM. Reason : ^with all that said, they were both outperforming warren]

3/2/2020 2:12:58 PM

The irony is per 538 the Buttigieg and Klobuchar dropouts make a contested convention more likely because it reduces the number of real candidates to where it's more likely Biden and Warren will clear the 15% threshold in all states tomorrow.

I've read some thought on a message board not from pundits that Warren is going to present herself in this new cleared environment as a compromise candidate between Biden and Sanders that could appeal to both sides. The Democratic Party establishment (I read the establishment now as Obama's quiet hand, he's more establishment inside the party than the Clintons are at this point) are clearing the field here and of the 4 remaining real candidates including Bloomberg, it's Biden and to a lesser extent Warren for them - as both of them are Democrats, Sanders is not nor has he ever been, and Bloomberg's only a Democrat out of convenience. (Seriously, why didn't he just go Ross Perot? Either now or more likely 2016?)

3/2/2020 2:47:07 PM

i'm laughing at the idea of the democratic establishment doing anything to help warren beyond wanting her to hurt sanders

3/2/2020 2:52:09 PM

I think she'd rank as 2nd choice in a Biden/Warren/Bloomberg/Sanders contest.

3/2/2020 2:54:10 PM

she ain't coming first, and not coming first is all the establishment needs to block progressive changes

3/2/2020 2:56:39 PM

So have we hit the point of Democratic voters (or Democratic voters that are not black) are now going to openly criticize Obama because "the establishment" - which is code for Obama at this point - "are blocking progressive changes", or are they still too chickenshit to do so?

C'mon, grow some balls for once and chant "YES WE CAN!"

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 3:09 PM. Reason : ?]

3/2/2020 3:08:03 PM

I love the irony of someone representing the side of the party that says moderate changes arent possible using "yes we can"

[Edited on March 2, 2020 at 3:36 PM. Reason : Also, did i miss an Obama reference before? Where did that come from?]

3/2/2020 3:35:45 PM

Beto endorsing Biden tonight too lol

3/2/2020 7:58:17 PM

Very cool that the progressive unity candidate could immediately counteract all of these endorsements, but is choosing to stay in the race in the extremely far-fetched hope of stealing the nomination at the convention from the other progressive.

3/2/2020 8:04:23 PM

"So a Candidate has Dropped Out. What happens to their delegates?" Explainer

https://frontloading.blogspot.com/2020/03/so-candidate-has-dropped-out-what.html?m=1

3/2/2020 10:01:22 PM

Just watched the Beto endorsement he did a great job, he’s a very charismatic speaker.

I guess Biden’s greatest asset is that he’s just an empty figurehead head for the democratic establishment. He’s not representing an ideology or vision, just the left-leaning management apparatus of the DNC. If you want stability and minimal disruption to what you know, vote Biden.

3/2/2020 10:31:12 PM

If Biden wins fair and square, I won't even actively oppose him. I don't think any Bernie supporters would want to march/riot on Milwaukee or burn down the country if Biden goes into the convention with more delegates and votes but if he doesn't...faafo.

I'm almost expecting some bullshit with the results in California tomorrow. Bernie has to win it and win big to have any chance at this so I'm expecting chaos. Bakari Sellers said on a CNN panel after Nevada that California couldn't help Bernie even if he wins because it will take months to count the votes. I kept a note of that on my fridge for reference.

3/2/2020 10:39:11 PM

all i can proclaim is the one person not getting my vote in 2020, is donald trump.

3/3/2020 12:00:34 AM

You just want to vote for the status quo that gave us donald trump

3/3/2020 12:12:03 AM

3/3/2020 12:37:52 AM

Just in case anyone hasn't figured it out yet:

Establishment Democrats have backroom brokered a deal to coalesce around Biden. I imagine there where many phone calls (possibly orchestrated by Obama/Clinton people) in the works to get all these endorsements in quick succession. Beto, Klobuchar, Pete, and yes, even Warren have probably all been promised cabinet positions, future funding, and/or corporate sponsorships for playing ball. Warren is still in the race not to win, but to kneecap progressive momentum and siphon off progressive votes from Sanders and deny him the outright delegate count he needs to avoid a brokered convention. Once that's done, she'll collect her reward. The media is playing their role by focusing on Biden rather than the front-runner in order to manufacture consent and demoralize an insurgent left wing.

That's how this shit works. This is how you manage a democracy

3/3/2020 1:32:59 AM

its how you get trump re-elected but remember they actually prefer 8 years of trump over 4 years of bernie

3/3/2020 2:59:39 AM

The real kick in the nuts comes later when Bernie endorses Biden

3/3/2020 3:12:58 AM

Quote :

" Bakari Sellers said on a CNN panel after Nevada that California couldn't help Bernie even if he wins because it will take months to count the votes. I kept a note of that on my fridge for reference."

My guy, I think it’s time to take a break from primetime cable news.

^^ this is some big league projection from a Jill Stein supporter

[Edited on March 3, 2020 at 6:07 AM. Reason : C]

3/3/2020 6:06:43 AM

do we wanna talk about any NC specific races or no?

3/3/2020 7:10:47 AM

Quote :

"My prediction until DNC next July: December----Tulsi&Booker OUT, Jan&Feb--- Amy&Steyer OUT, Harris&Sanders Pete OUT, Yang OUT, July---Warren&PeteSanders OUT, Warren endorses Biden, Pete turns into VP, Biden wins the nomination, but beaten by Trump"

My prediction is still effective after switching Pete and Sanders.

3/3/2020 8:33:30 AM

Quote :

"I'm almost expecting some bullshit with the results in California tomorrow. Bernie has to win it and win big to have any chance at this so I'm expecting chaos. Bakari Sellers said on a CNN panel after Nevada that California couldn't help Bernie even if he wins because it will take months to count the votes. I kept a note of that on my fridge for reference."

That's because California can't run an election. They were still updating the vote count after the 2016 general election 5 to 6 weeks later. God forbid if they ever have to do a recount for a statewide race, they would be so fucked.

3/3/2020 9:58:17 AM

Quote :

"Just in case anyone hasn't figured it out yet: Establishment Democrats have backroom brokered a deal to coalesce around Biden. I imagine there where many phone calls (possibly orchestrated by Obama/Clinton people) in the works to get all these endorsements in quick succession. Beto, Klobuchar, Pete, and yes, even Warren have probably all been promised cabinet positions, future funding, and/or corporate sponsorships for playing ball. Warren is still in the race not to win, but to kneecap progressive momentum and siphon off progressive votes from Sanders and deny him the outright delegate count he needs to avoid a brokered convention. Once that's done, she'll collect her reward. The media is playing their role by focusing on Biden rather than the front-runner in order to manufacture consent and demoralize an insurgent left wing. That's how this shit works. This is how you manage a democracy"

Yeah.

I'm still pissed off the Republicans couldn't have done this 4 years ago to stop their hijacking entryist from overthrowing the whole damn party.

3/3/2020 10:02:34 AM

Quote :

"Also, did i miss an Obama reference before? Where did that come from?"

Democratic Party Establishment=Obama. It's irrational to argue otherwise considering the state of the party nationally. Any person that blames the party establishment for these maneuvers is de facto blaming Obama. He's just keeping his hands clean publicly.

3/3/2020 10:11:21 AM

What’s your point here? Obama has been increasingly criticized by the left wing of the party for a decade now.

[Edited on March 3, 2020 at 10:15 AM. Reason : .]

3/3/2020 10:14:48 AM

Frim when he was in office to present, lol did Flyin Ryan think it was a gotcha?

[Edited on March 3, 2020 at 11:41 AM. Reason : or, lol, does he think Obama isnt part of the establishment?]

3/3/2020 11:40:45 AM

A friend from high school posted a pro Bernie breakdown of what people might pay under Medicare for all (more Medicare taxes but no premiums)

Another working class high school peer misread it and thought it said he’d pay more under Bernie.

My friend corrected him then responded with this:

Quote :

" oh..good..i was starting to get scared. I don't really care who wins but i just don't want much change in my life."

3/3/2020 11:58:33 AM

Although I'm disappointed with some of Warren's recent actions, I still think she would be the best president in the field. That said I think it's time for her to drop out and I'll be voting for Bernie in a few weeks.

3/3/2020 12:07:00 PM

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/1234869938344599554?s=21

Isn’t Data for Progress pretty good and typically Bernie friendly?

I’m not buying THIS MUCH of a swing. Literally 48 hours ago Biden was struggling to be viable in MA.

3/3/2020 12:14:44 PM

^^Warren probably won’t drop out until the last minute just like Hillary did. She is the only female candidate still in the battleground now.

3/3/2020 12:23:57 PM

How dare you try to erase Tulsi.

3/3/2020 12:25:05 PM