I think Tillis is going to have a hard time overcoming all the extremely regressive actions this legislature has taken this year. On the other hand Senator Hagan came out for marriage equality and closing gun loopholes before running for re-election during a midterm election year in the south.

While it's not the deep south, and while she has made advocacy around taking care of military folks a key part of her focus, I don't know that it'll overcome the potential bashing around those other issues. It's still not official that he's in, but since his Super PAC was formed today, he probably is.

5/24/2013 12:56:10 PM

The tea party considers Tillis an establishment GOP. Expect them to put up a primary challenger. Next, watch as Karl Rove's Conservative Victory fund jumps in to save the day and/or create a big mess of the entire situation. Also factor in the looming voter ID law. In the end I suspect Hagan will end up winning by a slim margin.

5/24/2013 2:59:20 PM

Quote :

"The tea party considers Tillis an establishment GOP. Expect them to put up a primary challenger."

They already have, his name is Dr. Greg Brannon, he's the only declared Republican candidate in the race.

5/24/2013 3:17:50 PM

Didn't Kay Hagan oppose the public option?

5/24/2013 3:37:16 PM

kay who?

shes pretty useless.

5/24/2013 8:14:15 PM

Unless the Rethug challenger screws up the way Dole did (protip, don't try to paint a Sunday School teacher as an atheist), I fail to see how Hagan gets reelected.

5/26/2013 10:26:49 AM

Here's a poll on the race from earlier this year:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/02/hagan-out-in-front-of-possible-2014-republican-opponents.html

Quote :

"Hagan out in front of possible 2014 Republican opponents Raleigh, N.C. – Kay Hagan leads nine possible Republican Senate candidates for the 2014 race by five to 15 points, according to PPP’s latest North Carolina poll. Every hypothetical GOP challenger trails Hagan... Thom Tillis 46/38"

She certainly has name recognition in NC, being a sitting Senator and all, but Tillis has made a name for himself these last few terms as well presiding over a legislature that has proposed bills like amendment 1, the anti-breast bill, official state religion bill, making divorce harder without exception for domestic violence, and seizing municipal assets away from local control, etc. But they say all publicity is good publicity right?



^So I don't know, I'd say it's more 50/50 at this point, than an automatic Tillis win. You know after 2012 and all the rape comments, with this General Assembly targeting women in some bills, and with Hillary running in 2016, then 2014 is going to be all about some women's issues.

[Edited on May 26, 2013 at 11:51 AM. Reason : .]

5/26/2013 11:45:57 AM

I don't know how thread locking works, but I'd say let's not get ahead of ourselves here. We have one declared GOP candidate that isn't Tillis. Yes, Tillis supporters started a Tillis PAC. I don't doubt he's going to get in the race, but there will be a primary and there's no guarantee he'll win said primary.

5/26/2013 10:23:20 PM

I mean, there's a chance Berger might get into it as the head of the state senate and all the state legislative baggage that comes with, but I really don't see Brannon getting the nod from the NC GOP.

5/26/2013 11:03:05 PM

Yes, Berger may get in, and so may 5 other candidates. Former Ambassador Jim Cain has already publicly expressed interested and there are a number of other potential candidates if you believe the PPP polls, including Cherie Berry, Virginia Foxx, etc.

I'm just saying, this thread is a little premature. If you just want a venue for bashing Tillis and the legislature, don't we already have a NC GOP credibility thread for that?

5/27/2013 7:17:04 AM

Haha, Foxx running? That's rich. Or maybe terrifying. I don't know which.

5/27/2013 9:10:08 AM

God I hate Virginia Foxx so bad. Regardless of her politics she is truly a disgusting human being to anyone who has ever met her personally.

Now, I dont know about her qualifications, but along those same lines Cherie Berry is a real peach. She is literally one of the nicest people you will ever meet.

She puts a smile on my face every time I board an elevator.

5/27/2013 9:51:59 AM

Yeah, I just wish her name actually rhymed.

5/27/2013 10:20:42 AM

Why would you ever elect Cherie Berry to anything that would mean the removal of her face from every elevator in the state?

5/28/2013 6:13:47 PM

Well apparently Cherie Berry is out per the AP, says she's not running against Hagan next year.

5/29/2013 12:23:48 PM

This thread is officially relevant now.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/05/30/2928160/thom-tillis-expected-to-announce.html

5/30/2013 9:36:10 PM

He will be yet another corporate candidate just like the rest. It is time to dump Citizens United and time to get the money out!

5/31/2013 7:45:47 AM

So will he eventually resign the speakership?

5/31/2013 8:45:19 AM

I used to go to church with Greg Brannon. He's a good guy, and apparently a much better candidate than Thom Tillis: http://gregbrannon.com/

5/31/2013 8:48:50 AM

I found some nice gems on that site like:

Quote :

"The Obama Administration’s actions are not only an assault on traditional marriage, but show a profound lack of respect for the Constitution and the Rule of Law."

This one is good, because NC is pushing a law that would repeal all local and state environmental regulations stricter than the federal government:

Quote :

" Imposing environmental standards through federal government mandates is not a practical substitute."

Quote :

"I do not support amnesty."

Quote :

"Millions crossing our border without our knowledge constitutes a clear threat to our nation’s security. I will work to secure our borders immediately."

Quote :

"As a Senator, I will seek to end federal involvement in education and restore the parental right to be responsible in educating children. I support reduced taxes so that parents can allocate more of their own funds to homeschooling or private, religious schools"

Quote :

"in 2010 I was asked to review and give a declaratory statement of North Carolina’s Women’s Right to Know Act by the North Carolina House Majority Leader."

That'd be Tillis he's referencing right? I think I also read something about how we shouldn't be so subservient to the UN. I don't think it matters much though, he might be better than Tillis, but in a post-Citizens United world I don't see him beating the Tillis Super PAC in the primary.

5/31/2013 4:37:32 PM

Obviously some of those positions are pretty offensive, but it's all relative when you're talking about politicians. We've seen big donors switch gears and funnel money towards "Tea Party" candidates when the numbers were right, so I wouldn't make any conclusions yet.

5/31/2013 6:18:34 PM

I think posting in this thread should be limited from now until the primary election date next year to registered Republican voters only. We already know who the Dem candidate is. I don't think it's right that non-Republicans get to influence the election by trying to pick our candidates for us.

5/31/2013 7:45:14 PM

Sorry GoldieO but I'm going to use this thread to start aggregating on both these candidates. Helps me keep track of the body count:

Kay Hagan currently blowing it, IMO
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/07/senate-democrats-cross-border-rule-cftc-schumer-warren

Quote :

"On Friday, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) is due to be finalize a rule that will apply these strict regs on derivatives trading to overseas branches of US-based banks. But the agency's chief, Gary Gensler, is facing a crush of opposition from the financial industry and European banking regulators. And he's been getting conflicting messages from Senate Democrats. At the end of June, six Democratic senators—Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Kay Hagan (D-NC), Michael Bennet (D-Co.), Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), and Thomas Carper (D-Del.)—sent a letter to the Treasury Department urging that the CFTC delay finalizing the guidelines on overseas trading."

[Edited on July 10, 2013 at 8:17 AM. Reason : ?]

7/10/2013 8:16:18 AM

From Under the Dome - I previously asserted that this thread was premature and I stand by my previous assertion.

http://projects.newsobserver.com/under_the_dome/national_gop_still_trying_to_recruit_an_opponent_for_hagan_0

7/10/2013 12:38:07 PM

http://specialinterestthom.com/

7/10/2013 11:35:44 PM

Since this thread has been brought back:

"Hagan Votes 'Yes', Burr Votes 'No' On Immigration Reform"
http://wunc.org/post/hagan-votes-yes-burr-votes-no-immigration-reform

Long term, a vote for immigration reform strikes me as a good politics and the right thing to do. But in the short term right before a midterm election, I don't know.

7/11/2013 12:03:45 AM

This election has been in the news again lately:



http://www.wral.com/brannon-lands-paul-endorsement-/13002049/

Quote :

"Brannon lands Paul endorsement RALEIGH, N.C. — U.S. Senate candidate Greg Brannon cemented his tea party cred Wednesday by garnering the endorsement of Republican U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky."

Quote :

""As Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and I showed clearly in our campaigns, when you run on principle and excite the grass-roots Republicans and Independents and even Democrats hungry for a change, you win. That's why I support Greg Brannon and expect him to be North Carolina's next Senator," Paul wrote."

https://www.dscc.org/pressrelease/gop-shutdown-watch-thom-tillis-mark-harris-greg-brannon-heather-grant-lead-way

Quote :

"All Republican Senate Candidates In North Carolina Supported Government Shutdown. “North Carolina’s Republican U.S. Senate candidates are taking a hard line on federal budget negotiations – a position that puts them at odds with the state’s lone GOP senator, Richard Burr. Four Republican candidates said Monday they support efforts to defund the federal health care act, apparently even if those efforts lead to a government shutdown.” [Charlotte Observer, 9/23/13]"

You know it's bad if they're making Richard Burr look good on the government shutdown.

http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/10/15/3283713/hagan-tillis-release-us-senate.html

Quote :

"Hagan's campaign released federal campaign documents due Tuesday that show her with $5.4 million in the bank as of Sept. 30. Unlikely to face any challenger with high name recognition in next May's primary, Hagan can keep most of her money for the general election."

Quote :

"On the Republican side, state House Speaker Thom Tillis appeared to lead other GOP hopefuls in finances. He told supporters in an email he'll report having more than $800,000 on hand when he files campaign finance documents."

Quote :

"The campaign of Dr. Greg Brannon of Cary, another Republican candidate, said it raised $156,000 in the third quarter and had $105,000 on hand."

Early voting for the primary starts in April.

10/20/2013 12:40:45 PM

A few news stories from this week:

http://centralnc.twcnews.com/content/news/all_nc_news/702861/hagan--mccrory-dispute-over-decision-to-cut-benefits-for-unemployed

Quote :

"Earlier this year, the North Carolina General Assembly slashed unemployment benefits, making North Carolina the only state in the nation to actually stop receiving federal unemployment insurance."

"Tillis, Berger hire lawyer in NC marriage amendment lawsuit"
http://www.wral.com/tillis-berger-hire-lawyer-in-nc-marriage-amendment-lawsuit/13236961/

12/22/2013 2:08:56 PM

If you have to hire a religious law firm, you might be trying to pass off a religious law or amendment as a secular one

12/22/2013 2:18:22 PM

The latest from PPP on this race:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/tillis-gains-in-primary-nc-senate-race-still-a-toss-up.html

Hagan trailing all of her GOP opponents, albeit within the margin of error. Tillis is starting to expand his lead in the primary - not unexpectedly.

1/14/2014 12:43:28 PM

I wonder how all the Greg Brannon supporters here at TSB are going to respond?

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/02/03/4661605/senate-candidate-greg-brannon.html#.UvDIGrSLHwk

2/4/2014 6:00:57 AM

Don't know who Greg Brannon is, but it seems like I could replace his name in that article with pretty much any politician, and it would be the same.

How bout this...they're all crooked, just don't vote for one stupid enough to get caught.

2/4/2014 7:09:54 AM

I like Brannon's stance on economic, education, and national defense (anti-NSA snooping, anti-patriot act, and only going to wars when there is a legitimate thread to national security).

I do not approve of his "Socially Conservative Christian" positions.

Anti-Choice
Pro Family Values
etc

Nor do I approve his stance of scrapping obamacare, without offering an alternative solution to the unholy alliance of health insurance and hospitals that plagues our system.

I can't vote for a teabag candidate until they scrap the Christian Right and stand by their original message of small government.

Quote :

"We may be able to save millions of lives in the near future by allowing states to pass their own anti-abortion laws."

Every clump of fetus cells is so precious

http://gregbrannon.com/prolife/



[Edited on February 4, 2014 at 10:22 AM. Reason : a]

2/4/2014 10:20:49 AM

I think lawsuits over crap like this probably occur more frequently than I even care to guess. What is it about the "investment class" that makes them feel entitled to a decent ROI? (just a recurring theme I see)

What's worse to me is:

Quote :

"In a deposition, Lampuri describes how Brannon talked business with him when his wife came for monthly doctor appointments during her pregnancy. “He pretty much spoke about Neogence every time my wife was in stirrups,” he told attorneys. "

***shudder***

Makes me want to take a shower. He's basically that seedy guy everyone knows that is constantly trying to make a deal, or talk business, or otherwise butter you up even if its totally inappropriate in your given situation.

2/4/2014 11:17:05 AM

Quote :

"I can't vote for a teabag candidate until they scrap the Christian Right and stand by their original message of small government."

agreed

2/4/2014 10:48:33 PM

Quote :

"I can't vote for a teabag candidate until they scrap the Christian Right and stand by their original message of small government."

2/5/2014 1:01:07 AM

With the teabag party advocating Family Values and adopting the Christian Right platform, what really is the difference between standard GOP and the tea party?????

I suppose the tea-party isn't as pro-war or in collusion with the gas/aero-defense/banking companies as much. Which could actually make them worse than run-of-the-mill republicans. Instead of just giving lip service to the Christian Right to get elected and then using their power to help out their corporate buddies; tea-baggers seem adamant about perusing their socially conservative agenda.

2/5/2014 8:11:33 AM

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/03/tillis-brannon-tied-in-north-carolina-gop-senate-primary.html

Looks like there will still be a primary fight.

3/12/2014 6:56:08 PM

Keep in mind Tillis has maintained a low public profile thus far in the campaign. I expect these ^ numbers to change after the first debate. Brannon definitely has his passionate supporters, but I think the majority of primary voters have only recently started paying attention to the candidates.

3/14/2014 11:16:51 AM

So we've got a guy that scams his buddies into investments and a guy that lies about where he went to college.

3/20/2014 4:58:35 PM

Tillis was an ALEC legislator of the year in 2011. That should be enough to reject him right there.

3/21/2014 3:26:39 PM

We have to have a candidate that will get the UN to stop intervening so much in North Carolina.

3/21/2014 4:02:55 PM

Should be an interesting race. I'm especially interested to see what this up-and-coming challenger Hagan has to offer. In my opinion, it's always good to see fresh names on the ballot that no one has ever heard before.

3/21/2014 6:54:48 PM

Interesting campaign strategy - sending a personal email to one of your main rivals in the primary...

http://www.newsobserver.com/2014/03/27/3737176/tillis-accuses-harris-of-going.html?sp=/99/102/105/135/1554/

I'm no campaign strategist, but conventional wisdom seems to be that you don't elevate your lower polling competitors by responding to their criticisms publicly. Maybe the Tillis campaign has some internal polling showing his numbers are starting to drop due to his strategy up to this point of limited public appearances.

3/27/2014 2:17:42 PM

The only explanation is Tillis is a hyper-sensitive, man child. Seems about right IMO.

3/27/2014 6:52:06 PM

Tillis definitely can't take it. I had it out with him once on Facebook and he quickly resorts to getting personal.

3/27/2014 9:00:05 PM

Do senate races have debates?

3/28/2014 5:48:36 PM

Bump for debates

9/3/2014 2:16:10 PM

I don't really see WRAL running any of their silly "fact checks" for Hagan, yet they waste time and energy investigating if Tillis was really a partner for IBM.

9/3/2014 2:29:09 PM

Bro, do you even google bro?
http://www.wral.com/news/local/politics/asset_gallery/11125799/

some of those are about Hagan or about claims made by Hagan supporters

9/3/2014 3:09:52 PM