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 Message Boards » » Britain's Referendum on Leaving or Remaining in EU Page [1] 2, Next  
Flyin Ryan
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If you have BBC America, you can watch live coverage on it.

12 of 382 counting centers in, and Leave is up 26000 votes. Early days of course.

Early breakdown:

London-huge Remain
Rest of England-about 60% Leave
Wales-Leave
Scotland and Northern Ireland-Remain

6/23/2016 8:23:42 PM

eleusis
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The weather was apparently horrible in London today, which may have impacted voter turnout in the portion of the country expected to drive the Remain vote. I also think polls overly estimated the number of people voting Remain, as the Brexit voters were less vocal.

6/23/2016 8:29:39 PM

Flyin Ryan
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The former head of the Scottish National Party Alex Salmond was on BBC. Without stating it directly he pretty much made it clear that if the UK vote to leave the EU that Scotland will use it as a reason/excuse to hold another independence referendum.

6/23/2016 8:32:34 PM

eleusis
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I thought that was the entire point of the Scottish National Party, and they didn't manage to pull it off 2 years ago.

6/23/2016 8:38:05 PM

NyM410
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anti-establishment and nationalistic morons are going to commit economic suicide for the middle and lower class. Good stuff.

6/23/2016 8:47:09 PM

Flyin Ryan
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^^ It ended up being a pyrrhic loss. Scotland has been Labour territory for 50 years. The general election last year Labour only won 1 out of 59 seats in Scotland, the same as the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats. The Scottish National Party went from 6 to winning 56 out of the 59 seats. The referendum although they failed solidified the SNP as the party for Scottish voters even if some of them didn't back independence then. It was only confirmed earlier this year when the SNP retained their large advantage in the Scottish Parliament and Labour fell behind even the Conservatives in number of seats, which would've been unfathomable 10-15 years ago.

There are diehard Labour sections of England that are voting heavy Leave tonight. Labour are so out of touch with their remaining voters. I think it's because Labour's views represent London more than they do northern England at this point (i.e. they're not representing "labor").

Leave up 53-47. That equates to a lead of 148000 at the moment. 69% turnout, so way higher than a general election.

[Edited on June 23, 2016 at 9:04 PM. Reason : /]

6/23/2016 8:59:36 PM

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10.2% reporting

47% remain and 53% leave

6/23/2016 9:19:18 PM

Flyin Ryan
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By the way, if you follow or have stuff in the stock market, and Leave wins, tomorrow's going to be a rough day for you.

6/23/2016 9:23:14 PM

NyM410
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Going to be rough either way in the US markets.

6/23/2016 9:47:28 PM

Flyin Ryan
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70% turnout.

Leave 50.7%
Remain 49.3%

Leave up 146,914 votes with 146 of 382 centers in.

6/23/2016 10:17:47 PM

Kurtis636
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Yeah, dow futures are down almost 400 points right now.

Leave up 51.2 to 48.8

Also, the best part of this whole thing is seeing all the silly British and Welsh names scrolling across the screen. Ooh, East Riding of Yorkshire votes OUT.

[Edited on June 23, 2016 at 10:33 PM. Reason : Dbdndm]

6/23/2016 10:27:34 PM

HCH
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Can someone explain to me why they are just getting the votes in now. It's like 3AM over there. Do they keep the polls open so everyone can go to the pub after work first?

6/23/2016 10:34:45 PM

Flyin Ryan
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^ They count physical ballots I think. And do all the counting at one central area instead of at a precinct level.

FTSE (British stock market) futures down 5.7%.

6/23/2016 10:36:18 PM

HCH
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Maybe the EU should kick them out just for that.

6/23/2016 10:37:46 PM

moron
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wow i was thinking they would vote to stay.

This could be really interesting...

6/23/2016 10:38:25 PM

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Quote :
"wow i was thinking they would vote to stay."


Why? I thought the polls were a tossup...

6/23/2016 11:07:55 PM

Kurtis636
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Can't wait to buy some large multinational stocks in the morning.

6/23/2016 11:09:22 PM

Flyin Ryan
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^^ "Remain" were quietly confident. Odds on Remain winning, the stock markets, and the pound all went up following the assassination of Member of Parliament Jo Cox last week.

The pound has dropped 7% against the dollar in the last 4 hours. Moves of 1% in forex are huge.

Leave up 620,349 votes with 271 out of 382 voting centers in. Percentage-wise it's 51.4% Leave, 48.6% Remain.

[Edited on June 23, 2016 at 11:22 PM. Reason : /]

6/23/2016 11:18:32 PM

Kurtis636
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The freak out is a bit unwarranted IMO. They aren't leaving tomorrow. Decent chance that markets will be closed In London, they could close the banks as well.

Good time to buy stocks IMO.

The currency move is crazy.

Birmingham votes to leave. That's big. Hard to see remain winning anymore.

6/23/2016 11:26:52 PM

Flyin Ryan
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Quote :
"A reminder, from our capital markets correspondent Elaine Moore, that all three of the world’s largest credit rating agencies have warned that a vote to Leave would have a negative impact on UK creditworthiness, with S&P declaring that the UK could lose its final, gold-plated AAA credit rating in the event of Brexit.

4:32am Judith Evans
The pound's dramatic fall sets up the world's central banks for a revival of currency wars, reports the FT's Roger Blitz.

A press conference has been called by Japan's finance minister Taro Aso, after results from the EU referendum piled risk aversion into the FX market, notably the yen.

The yen climbed to below Y100 to the dollar, a rise of more than 4 per cent and hitting a psychologically significant level that was last reached in November 2013.

Japan has refrained from intervening to weaken the yen, under pressure from the US government which has argued all the year that the yen's appreciation has been "orderly". But market analysts predict the turmoil caused by Brexit will give Tokyo reason to argue that the yen's appreciation to below Y100 is now a "disorderly" market event, giving the government reason to intervene.

Other governments may also feel compelled to act. The Swiss franc is up 1.8 per cent against the euro to levels that will sit uncomfortably with the Swiss National Bank.

4:30am Mark Odell
A little bit more on what is going on in Japan from the FT's Robin Harding in Tokyo:

Japanese finance minister Taro Aso will hold a press conference at 1.15pm local time (5.15am in London), said the ministry of finance, after the yen briefly burst through Y100 to the dollar at one point. It fell back to trade at Y101.5. Officials at the Bank of Japan said they were "too busy to talk" or did not answer the phone.

4:22am Mark Odell
If you need any further reminder of how far the shockwaves of the voting is spreading around the world, the Japanese finance minister, Taro Aso, has announced he will be giving a press conference in just under an hour, after the Yen strengthened against the US dollar as it passed below 100.

4:22am Judith Evans
Investors are rushing for havens as the chance of Brexit rises, says Elaine Moore, capital markets correspondent.

Demand for US government bonds has pushed the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasurys - the bedrock of the global financial system - down 23 basis points to 1.54 per cent."


Doubt it'd happen, but Sinn Fein has said they're going to push for a Northern Ireland referendum to leave the United Kingdom and join the Republic of Ireland if the UK leave the EU because Northern Ireland had a majority vote to remain in the EU.

[Edited on June 23, 2016 at 11:38 PM. Reason : .]

6/23/2016 11:28:54 PM

Flyin Ryan
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BBC just did their official forecast that the UK votes to leave the EU.

6/23/2016 11:40:38 PM

moron
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http://www.economist.com/.../06/britain-s-eu-referendum-0

Here's an early demographic breakdown. Old people dominated the "leave" vote but youngish 35s still mostly wanted to leave.

It seems like any "damage" that results would have to primarily be caused by how the other EU countries react doesn't it?

Is there inherent reason though simply not being part of the EU should be disastrous?

6/24/2016 1:45:13 AM

Kurtis636
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No. In the short term there will be some economic damage because of uncertainty, but I think it could be a net positive for the UK. The EU is a net exporter to the UK, they aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot by enacting a trade war.

The one thing to look at is how this impacts other countries. Already hearing some chatter from the nationalist parties in France and Italy about pushing for a referendum. Poland's foreign minister just came out and announced that maybe it's time to reexamine the structure of the EU. There's a fair chance that the EU as a political entity could go away and instead you see a return to the economic union that they had before. They've never really been successful uniting the continent. Never got everyone on board with the euro as a currency and schengen was quite popular but has come under scrutiny with the migrant crisis.

Short term panic, long term non factor for the US economy. great opportunity to buy stocks right now.

6/24/2016 2:06:12 AM

Flyin Ryan
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I do think some of the Remain folks have been hysterical on consequences. You can't look at this as success or fail based on one-day moves of the market. The EU does have large structural failings. Hopefully this gives it a kick in the ass.

David Cameron this morning announced he will step down as Prime Minister. Just let the Queen know.

6/24/2016 6:11:16 AM

NyM410
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Has there ever been a powerful rise of nationalism that hasn't had catastrophic results? Especially in Europe?

^ yes, it's not capital markets that scare me. It's the trend towards populism and nationalism. For geopolitical unity, you have to admit the EU served its purpose. Of course it could always do better too..

[Edited on June 24, 2016 at 8:27 AM. Reason : D]

6/24/2016 8:26:14 AM

HCH
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Quote :
"The EU is a net exporter to the UK, they aren't going to shoot themselves in the foot by enacting a trade war."


Yeah, but now the UK can more easily impose tariffs and restrictions on importing products. Sure, it'll cause prices to increase, but its worth it to Make America UK Great Again!

Also,

Quote :
"
Laura Topham
?@LauraTopham

Leave voter on BBC: "I'm shocked & worried. I voted Leave but didn't think my vote would count - I never thought it would actually happen."
"

6/24/2016 8:48:35 AM

NyM410
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Someone tell that person it still didn't count.

6/24/2016 9:04:47 AM

rjrumfel
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Holy cow, Cameron is stepping down? This seems huge.

And boom, billions of dollars just erased from the stock markets.

So can someone give me the tl;dr version of why people wanted to leave in the first place? I haven't really followed this because to be honest, I didn't think they'd leave.

[Edited on June 24, 2016 at 9:23 AM. Reason : sadf]

6/24/2016 9:20:31 AM

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Brown people

6/24/2016 9:40:35 AM

NyM410
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Nationalism, anger and fear among the older generation.

Though I suppose the second and third of the above are the drivers of the first.

(and to be fair, the EU certainly does have problems)

6/24/2016 9:43:35 AM

rjrumfel
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Did we honestly expect the EU to stay intact for long? I mean it's Europe. Those guys can't stick together for 75 years without getting into an argument and killing millions of people.

Ok so it's been a little over 75 years since the last major war over there, but still, historically they've all been a very combative lot.

[Edited on June 24, 2016 at 9:59 AM. Reason : adadsf]

6/24/2016 9:58:25 AM

GrumpyGOP
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This is unbelievable. I cannot believe it. The stupidity involved...

Quote :
"So can someone give me the tl;dr version of why people wanted to leave in the first place?"


Whew boy. A bunch of things.

"Brown people," kind of. Every time the EU expands into a less-affluent country, a bunch of people from that country emigrate to wealthier member states. A bunch of Poles/Slovaks/etc. moved to the UK when those countries got added, which caused the same sort of resentment immigrants do here.

But that wave was not as menacing as the potential for refugees now (because once they're established in the EU, they can move at will) or Turks in the future. Turkey has a population of around 75 million, only slightly smaller than Germany's (and ten million larger than the UK's). That's a lot of (relatively) poor people who might want to move to the UK and enjoy social welfare programs. Old British people don't want to deal with that, never mind that Turkey won't be joining the EU for years and years to come.

Then there's nationalism, which takes a couple of forms. First there's Britain's longstanding cultural belief that it is better than the continent and should not deal with it any more than it has to. In the 21st century, this is idiotic. Then there's the belief that the EU is encroaching on their national sovereignty. This is a little bit less idiotic because, yes, technically, the EU can pass supranational laws. But the UK does elect representatives to the bodies that make those decisions, so they have a voice, and for the time being the EU's laws are nothing so invasive you'd destroy the world economy over them.

Then there are some mythical fears -- the prospect of an "EU army" apparently alarmed some, even though such a thing doesn't exist and isn't going to in the foreseeable.

There's also some hemming and hawing about the UK's financial contribution to the EU, which, while not negligible, is almost certainly going to be less than the costs incurred by leaving it.

But on top of all those things (most of which are dumb), there are plenty of legitimate issues with the EU, which has an enormously bloated bureaucracy and byzantine trade regulations that show just how suspicious everybody is over economic cooperation. And maybe those issues should have been enough to keep the UK from joining in the first place. But now, having joined, they're fucking everybody by leaving -- most of all, themselves.

6/24/2016 10:19:27 AM

NyM410
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^^ it's almost like there was some tie that bound these countries together in recent times. Some sort of union between European powers.

[Edited on June 24, 2016 at 10:29 AM. Reason : X]

6/24/2016 10:29:29 AM

NeuseRvrRat
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Fuck a central government. Need a Texit now.

6/24/2016 10:36:14 AM

NyM410
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NexCit

6/24/2016 10:40:24 AM

goalielax
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I'm sure Texas would do gangbusters without the support of a Federal ICE, ATF, DEA, etc. Not to mention almost 15% of the state is on SNAP, it's had some of the largest % increases in population below poverty level, especially along the border, and it currently takes more from the federal government than it contributes.

Texit indeed

6/24/2016 10:43:10 AM

NeuseRvrRat
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Glad we can agree on something.

6/24/2016 10:48:37 AM

Flyin Ryan
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To NyM410, I cannot say the EU has done well on geopolitical unity. My basis for that is they continue to not take military responsibilities seriously-they are so far away from what they said they were going to do 15 years, their lack of coordination on cross-border fund flows for countries down economically (the Germany-Greece affair), the complete lack of democratic legitimacy in EU leaders (EPP, S&D, ALDE, GUE-NGL - these are European political parties that most Europeans don't even know exist), and the multiple states that have put up actual walls with the migration stampede.

The problem with European integration is the leaders were intentionally vague to their electorates that they will never be required to sacrifice anything. German voters for example didn't believe when they entered that German taxes would be required to backstop Greece.

Labour Party have a vote of no confidence motion set for Monday against their party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

6/24/2016 11:08:06 AM

moron
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Looks like most people under 40 voted to remain. It was the 40+ crowd, with the pensioners overwhelmingly voting to leave.

6/24/2016 11:08:53 AM

goalielax
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Then maybe those under 40 should have been bothered to vote

[Edited on June 24, 2016 at 11:49 AM. Reason : .]

6/24/2016 11:49:20 AM

Kurtis636
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The EU as a political institution is quite unpopular in a lot of places but in England, which has always been disconnected from the continent, it's seen by many as practically foreign.

The bureaucracy has been growing without really contributing much to its member nations.

I think a lot of Europeans would vote for an exit from the EU if they could keep the free trade zone. The schengen free movement area has come under fire recently due to the migrant influx and the refugee crisis, and is rightly or wrongly believed to be a bit of a security risk.

I think there's a fairly good chance of an EU breakup now. Lots of countries already disliked how powerful Germany was within the EU and now with England leaving they'll be even more the alpha dog.

Like I said, I don't see a lot of likelihood for punitive trade relations, that would be foolish on both ends.

The why did they leave question is certainly more complex than "too many brown people." England's "they took our jobs" crowd is much more about eastern Europeans than Muslims migrants (though there is more of that now than before). There has been a large influx of Polish, Czech, and former Soviet bloc immigrants in the last 20 years. The UK economy recovered much better than Europe overall post financial crisis so they feel like they're paying for membership in a group they aren't getting much out of. Also, the UK has always been nationalistic and proud with a dislike for the continent since about, oh, 1066.

6/24/2016 12:53:01 PM

d357r0y3r
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Man, nothing warms the heart like liberals crying over any kind of decentralization whatsoever.

6/24/2016 1:26:15 PM

moron
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http://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-implications-what-happens-2016-6

Quote :
" Britain had managed to get itself a deal where it got only the good bits of the EU - free trade and an integrated market, and free movement of people within the union - while keeping its own currency and its own passport controls. The British relationship with Europe was a model for what a slimmed-down, good-parts-only EU should have come to look like.
"

6/24/2016 2:18:25 PM

Kurtis636
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Yup, that's largely true but they also did get a lot of burdensome regulation and EU imposed laws. A lot of that was overhyped by the leave campaign, but there is real and understandable resentment about laws imposed by bureaucratic agencies. The UK contributed a lot of money to the EU, and while it got a lot of that back (seen a lot of conflicting reports about what the imbalance was) it came back with strings attached on what it could be spent on or how it was allocated.

I've said a few times on here that I didn't think the EU could really work without a single currency for all members. That's more politically binding than anything else they could do. The states most likely to leave now are the ones with their own currency. It's a great deal if you're Germany, they have a weaker currency than they really should and they're an exporter. Stuff like that breeds resentment.

6/24/2016 2:28:26 PM

moron
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^ hopefully you read the rest of the article, Barro is one of the smartest guys in journalism and he covers a lot of what you said and more.

6/24/2016 2:39:59 PM

d357r0y3r
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Quote :
"The UK contributed a lot of money to the EU, and while it got a lot of that back (seen a lot of conflicting reports about what the imbalance was) it came back with strings attached on what it could be spent on or how it was allocated. "


Whether they came out ahead or behind really doesn't matter. The EU doesn't produce anything and it isn't magic. Any wealth that was given or taken away came at the expense of some other EU member state.

The EU is all the bad parts of a bureaucratic black hole, but with none of the teeth of an actual federation, e.g. the United States.

6/24/2016 3:21:47 PM

Kurtis636
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Yup, good article. Honestly there's a whole raft of possible outcomes from this but I think the death of the EU as it currently stands is almost a certainty. I've subscribed to The Economist for quite a while (just let it lapse last month and now wish I hadn't) and they were on the remain side for a lot of similar reasons.

He's right about Greece. I was a bit surprised that they didn't vote to leave a while back. They probably should have, bit I think they saw the EU as a life preserver and held onto it like grim death.

In the end the Brexit could help Europe by forcing a serious restructure of the EU while leaving the UK on the outside looking in.

6/24/2016 3:22:11 PM

UJustWait84
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Quote :
"The EU doesn't produce anything"


LO fucking L

6/24/2016 3:32:02 PM

d357r0y3r
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What does it produce?

6/24/2016 4:17:06 PM

UJustWait84
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(it's not a country)

6/24/2016 4:32:36 PM

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