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 Message Boards » » 2020 Democrat Primaries Page 1 ... 91 92 93 94 [95], Prev  
NyM410
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Curious what the numbers start to look like now that Obama is sure to endorse Biden. I know Obama isn’t terribly popular in the extremely online left but he’s a massively popular figure at large and has major influence. Biden isn’t Hilary and has much stronger support in key demographics that he need to win big with and you’d think he will get a bump.

Quote :
" Looks like Trump owns stake in the maker of the drug he's touting."


So there are two ways to look at this. Positive support and enthusiasm will certainly be higher for Trump. As it was in 2016. But one MAJOR difference to me is that Clinton actually had more negative enthusiasm than Trump. In other words more people hate-voted AGAINST her than Trump. In 2020 there is no rational person on earth who could claim Biden would have more hate-votes against than Trump. The election will entirely be a referendum on Trump, even moreso now with COVID-19.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 11:45 AM. Reason : X]

4/8/2020 11:42:10 AM

daaave
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Trump's disapproval number has just dropped below 50% for the first time in 3 years

4/8/2020 11:49:27 AM

NyM410
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Ok? It’s a snapshot in time and he’s still underwater by a decent clip.

Are you arguing my point? You really think the anti-Biden vote will be greater than the anti-Trump vote? With respect, if so, that is insane and clouded by current resentment.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 11:55 AM. Reason : Time]

4/8/2020 11:55:21 AM

nacstate
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Anyone actually believe that Biden can beat Trump?

4/8/2020 11:55:28 AM

NyM410
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He can. Obviously. That’s why polling is close to a slight Biden lead.

I’d make Trump a slight favorite right now but he absolutely needs to have the economy bounce back and there is no guarantee that happens.

** his entire argument was “I’m an ass but at least the economy is good” like two weeks ago

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 11:57 AM. Reason : X]

4/8/2020 11:56:37 AM

eyewall41
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I knew it was coming but this is a sad day for sure. Trump will wipe the floor with Biden.

4/8/2020 12:00:21 PM

daaave
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Quote :
"You really think the anti-Biden vote will be greater than the anti-Trump vote?"


No, I think the pro-Trump vote will be greater than the pro-Biden vote, which is what matters given that his disapproval rating is not high enough for hate-votes to counteract that.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 12:02 PM. Reason : .]

4/8/2020 12:01:18 PM

NyM410
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Ok, that’s fair. I misunderstood your point.

To a greater point, I think no one really wanted Biden to win (except maybe UJustWait — though he is mostly trolling). But to say Trump will “wipe the floor” with anyone is just flat out contradictory to every bit of evidence and data we have. As I said, Trump is rightfully a slight favorite (incumbency is real hard to overcome even with a strong candidate) but he isn’t popular, we are in the middle of a pandemic and the economy is in tatters.

It’s pretty insane to think he is a lock.

4/8/2020 12:05:11 PM

BJCaudill21
Not an alcoholic
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Tulsi still in it right? Maybe Joe will drop dead

4/8/2020 12:18:00 PM

daaave
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If things continue exactly as they are? Sure maybe Biden could win. But without a substantial opposition message, any number of things could easily sway the polls to Trump. (ex. a second stimulus check that hits in mid-October)

Once again, liberal Democratic leadership is perfectly willing to gamble on a mediocre candidate if it prevents a slide to the left.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 12:21 PM. Reason : .]

4/8/2020 12:19:42 PM

bbehe
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The left is willing to bet on a candidate who managed to get the most votes in primaries! More at 11!

4/8/2020 12:23:29 PM

bbehe
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Seriously, your takes are amazing.

4/8/2020 12:23:56 PM

daaave
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Lol Joe Biden was in third (i think?) when every other centrist ghoul dropped out and endorsed him. That was the gamble.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 12:33 PM. Reason : .]

4/8/2020 12:33:24 PM

bbehe
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So we should have let the guy who could only muster 30% of the vote and suffered from voter turnout issues? Fantastic

4/8/2020 12:45:20 PM

utowncha
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Quote :
"To a greater point, I think no one really wanted Biden to win (except maybe UJustWait — though he is mostly trolling)."


dont take this the wrong way... but YOU seem to be biden's biggest fan lately. i really dont mean this to be insulting.

4/8/2020 12:47:49 PM

daaave
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^^
He was projected to win until the other Democratic candidates consolidated their support around Biden. I trust that you comprehend the effect that had.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 12:49 PM. Reason : .]

4/8/2020 12:47:50 PM

bbehe
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Again, with only 30% of the vote.

4/8/2020 12:50:24 PM

daaave
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Incredible, 100% split 5 ways is different than 100% split 2 ways. Remind me, what was Biden polling at before Super Tuesday? Less than 20% I think? Now imagine if everyone dropped out and endorsed Bernie instead of Biden, or didn't endorse at all!

4/8/2020 12:56:40 PM

horosho
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Quote :
" In 2020 there is no rational person on earth who could claim Biden would have more hate-votes against than Trump. The election will entirely be a referendum on Trump, even moreso now with COVID-19.
"

This would be true if synthesizing and spreading COVID-19 was a Trump policy position. Your belief in American exceptionalism that you think we would've been able to avoid a global pandemic. The thing is, he has no policy position as bad as things Biden has actually wanted to happen, made happen, and are still happening today.

-The crime bill
-The Iraq war

Trump hasn't done anything nearly as bad as those. Most of the country won't give a damn about this election because we think both are complete pieces of shit. 40% of the electorate will hate Biden for being too far left and 40% of the electorate will hate Trump for saying mean things but there are a lot more Joe Rogans in that 20% leftover.

4/8/2020 1:08:49 PM

bbehe
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Most of the democratic electorate shared views with Biden, this is why Sanders didn't win or expand past 30%.

4/8/2020 1:11:46 PM

rwoody
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If most of the Dem electorate shared views with biden they would have voted for him before everyone else dropped out

4/8/2020 1:13:11 PM

utowncha
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all these threads are gonna be just horrible from here on out. i dont know if i even posted this in the right one.

4/8/2020 1:14:33 PM

bbehe
2019 Egg Champ
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Y'all going to be really obtuse about this.

Once my preferred candidate didn't have a viable path to the nomination, I selected another who SHARED their views.

4/8/2020 1:15:28 PM

NyM410
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Quote :
" Your belief in American exceptionalism that you think we would've been able to avoid a global pandemic."


This is a lie, obviously.

Meaningful critiques over policy, messaging and ethics based on his response to COVID-19 are important. I think I’ve been pretty fair to him even though I did regrettably for his one day “change of tone.”

4/8/2020 1:18:33 PM

horosho
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The party is mostly reactionaries so he might be right. They have no ability to see more than 4 years forward or backwards. I can't wait to remind them when the next republican president is much more dangerous than Trump and they tell is we have to vote for someone to the right of Trump in order to prevent the new monster.

Quote :
"This is a lie, obviously.

Meaningful critiques over policy, messaging and ethics based on his response to COVID-19 are important. I think I’ve been pretty fair to him even though I did regrettably for his one day “change of tone.”"

Sure, but lets not pretend COVID-19 would be much different with Biden. Its not like Biden was campaigning on it before March

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 1:21 PM. Reason : k]

4/8/2020 1:20:09 PM

daaave
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Quote :
"Most of the democratic electorate shared views with Biden, this is why Sanders didn't win or expand past 30%."


Literally, statistically not true. The vast majority of Democrats (80-90%) support Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. All of the polls, even after Biden started winning, showed that people trusted Bernie more on every policy issue. Most voted for Biden out of some ill-conceived notion of electability promoted by Democratic leadership and solidified by the other candidates dropping out and endorsing him because Obama asked them to.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 1:22 PM. Reason : .]

4/8/2020 1:20:10 PM

rwoody
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What exactly are those shared views?

Pretty much every policy poll shows that Bernies policies are more popular. The only "shared view" of the Dem electorate supporting Biden is that he has a better chance to win the imaginary republican switchovers. And that view is in place bc of years of media focus on independents and Obama to Trump voters and implying they are still up for grabs.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 1:23 PM. Reason : Jinx. Bbehe 5+though biden can't do ANYTHING to help now then disappeared when I listed 10 things ]

4/8/2020 1:21:46 PM

horosho
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^remember they threw those polls out and disregarded them because some of them inconveniently showed Bernie winning states he lost. The polls must be wrong.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 1:23 PM. Reason : same polls had huge discrepancies between bernie voters and his results]

4/8/2020 1:22:44 PM

bbehe
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Public option polls higher among dems than m4a

4/8/2020 1:28:09 PM

thegoodlife3
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Quote :
" the other candidates dropping out and endorsing him because Obama asked them to."


link?

4/8/2020 1:29:05 PM

bbehe
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Please show me one poll where m4a polls at 90% among dems

4/8/2020 1:29:25 PM

rwoody
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Without arguing that point, that is completely different from your first point

If a majority of Dems support MFA, there is at least one view where a majority don't share Biden's views, even if a a few more support the public option.

If I say let's give people $10000 and you say let's give people $500, and polling shows 65% support $10k and 80% support $500, what that tells you is only a 15% support the weaker middle option.

^this one shows 77%
https://www.kff.org/health-reform/poll-finding/kff-health-tracking-poll-january-2020/

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 1:35 PM. Reason : E]

4/8/2020 1:33:08 PM

NyM410
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^^^ there were actually a few twitter media power users basically saying the same thing. It’s likely true and remember, obama is wildly popular among democratic primary voters so it makes sense.

Of course I’m not terribly surprised people like Beto, Kamala and Pete who Sanders online fans consistently called centrist scum and similar would choose to endorse another centrist, regardless of Obama.

I think it’s absolute worth asking why exactly Warren did what she did, though.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 1:34 PM. Reason : X]

4/8/2020 1:33:53 PM

NyM410
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M4A polling is notoriously wonky because most people fail to and are unable to differentiate between M4A, public option and single payer. I’m someone plugged in and extremely online and I am still confused by the wording on a lot of those polls.

[Edited on April 8, 2020 at 1:38 PM. Reason : X]

4/8/2020 1:38:22 PM

horosho
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I just hope they see that Bernie did the exact same thing as those other candidates. Everyone wanted to win but in the eyes of the DNC, had their role in running in specific states in order to engage voters in a process they would never support. Bernie's last state just happened to be after all of their's. Now a bunch of people who would have never come into the system are in the system and going to vote for Biden. Not revolutionary at all.

4/8/2020 1:40:12 PM

daaave
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Quote :
"link?"


https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/485503-obama-spoke-with-buttigieg-after-he-dropped-out-of-2020-race-report

Quote :
"Please show me one poll where m4a polls at 90% among dems"


You are correct, the highest I can find at a quick glance is 77%, with a public option at 88%. Still, Democratic voters have consistently stated they trust Bernie over everyone else on that issue. And there's a reason why centrist Dems have co-opted the phrasing despite their plans being nothing more than a public option.

Now do the GND, wealth tax, increasing taxes on the wealthy generally, tuition-free college, eliminating student debt, etc. How do they poll and who do voters trust?

4/8/2020 1:42:59 PM

0EPII1
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This Biden ad is hot

https://www.facebook.com/346937065399354/videos/844223729390613/

4/8/2020 1:55:46 PM

synapse
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Filed under "Trump is too incompetent to implement much of what he wants"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/climate/epa-mercury-coal.html

4/16/2020 11:46:08 AM

synapse
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Old news, but I guess Bloomberg reneged on his promise to leave his ground game in place for whoever wins the Democratic nomination?

So obvious conclusion being that he never intended to do that unless he was successful in buying the nomination. If true what a giant POS who should never be listened too/given airtime in the future.

5/6/2020 8:39:20 PM

moron
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https://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics-government/article242527331.html

Apparently in a divorce issue handled in court Tara reades husband described her as distraught from being sexually harassed while working in Biden’s office.

5/7/2020 9:50:36 PM

utowncha
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anyone see his virtual rally?

5/8/2020 9:44:16 AM

synapse
play so hard
59072 Posts
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Filed under "Trump is too incompetent to implement much of what he wants"



https://www.pennlive.com/daily-buzz/2020/05/salt-lake-city-man-attempts-to-fire-arrows-into-crowd-of-protestors-at-rally-for-george-floyd-reports.html
https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/05/30/nation/one-dead-after-shot-or-shots-fired-into-crowd-protesters-detroit-no-officer-involved-police-say/
saw one in NC too but can't find atm
...

6/1/2020 1:09:34 PM

horosho
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Your examples contradict your point. Trump will still have a twitter when he isn't the president and there will still be people who want to shoot at looters just as there ALWAYS have been. That is not "implementation of policy"

An example to support your point would be law enforcement or military actually starting to shoot looters systematically. Hasn't happened. In fact, there has been even more looting and less shooting since he tweeted that.

[Edited on June 1, 2020 at 1:27 PM. Reason : good ole boys are not "implementing policy" and won't stop if a democrat is in the white house]

6/1/2020 1:26:33 PM

synapse
play so hard
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https://twitter.com/TheStolenBeer/status/1267093331449909248?s=19

6/2/2020 9:48:58 AM

rwoody
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Did you mean to put that in this thread?

6/2/2020 9:58:07 AM

synapse
play so hard
59072 Posts
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yes

6/2/2020 11:34:39 AM

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