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rwoody
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This has to be done to be fair to NC STATE FOOTBALL 2017

Quote :
"2018 Opponents

ACC home

Florida State, Boston College, Wake Forest, Virginia

ACC away

Clemson, Louisville, Syracuse, North Carolina

Non-conference

West Virginia, at Marshall, Georgia State, James Madison"

1/1/2018 8:31:11 PM

rwoody
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Posted this in DD thread but prob better here:
Quote :
"To this end, I looked at how many of a teams all acc performers are gone (seniors only, not including early entry)

Cuse 100% (5 players all seniors)
Lou 12/7 (although prob safe to assume Lamar is gone) Alexander gone
Wake 4/12 (4/6 from 1st/2nd)
UNC 1/4 (can't expect them to have as many injuries next year either) Not allACC but Jr LB Smith gone
FSU 1/6 (derwin IS gone, Plus they get francois back right?) also Jr DE Sweat, not allACC
BC 3/9 (all from 3rd/hon)
UVA 2/7 (only 2 1st's)
Clem 35/18!! (pray for early entries) OG Hearn gone, heard Deon Cain was gone

Wake and UVA also have senior qb's. Everyone else brings back a qb that played this year

Obviously there are other factors but I think I agree with the post except that UVA might get worse losing qb and two best players.

We on the other hand are 4/11 and our QB comes back.

WVU is 5/15, gets their qb back and 2 of their big 3 wrs (all had at least 978 yards) but lose their 1000 yd rusher "


My thought:
FSU - Better b/c of Francois, new coach rallying, dont lose much. Close home 50/50 L
BC - Better. Young core comes back but at home, W
Wake - Little worse with losses, home W
UVA - Neutral, lost 2 best players but sr QB, not a great team though home W
Clem - Same, lose a few but will reload, DD gets over the hump for an away 50/50 W
Lou - Much worse, no Lamar, away W
Cuse - Lost all best players, away W
UNC - Better, get back most of their injured players, toss up but away so 50/50 L
WVU - Better, they might destroy our secondary, L
Other 3, home Ws

All depends on Finley, Hines and Richardson but i think we could hang with all these teams.
9-3 is my call. If our secondary is much improved we can step up, if the whole D is worse, maybe a big step back.

1/1/2018 8:43:09 PM

tulsigabbard
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I think we will have a top 40 defense at least. Can't imagine the defense getting any worse. Not with these coaches. The talent isn't great but its good enough to at least be that good. Roof suggests it will be much better but i think our running game will ultimately determine how good our d can be.

1/2/2018 12:34:47 AM

LudaChris
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So just based on who is "projected" to go pro and coaching changes, my expectations:
FSU - Much better. They'll have a QB battle but they're super loaded with talent and I think they'll be more motivated with the new regime and after being a complete joke this past season.
BC - Better. They're about to have their "everyone is a SR" payoff year so will be interesting to see if they can capitalize on it. Dillon is a beast.
Wake - Worse. Losing Wofford is going to be a huge deal for them, but starting 4 SR or RS-SR OL will help. Wofford is just that much better than Hinton(if he even starts).
UVA - Same. Think their "improvement" this season had a lot to do with their schedule.
Clem - Better. They'll lose some stars but they're stacked with depth and talent. KB was holding this team back at QB and I think Lawrence is going to elevate the offense next year.
Lou - Worse. Lamar was that team. Petrino is going to get fired if he doesn't have some amazing QB in waiting.
Cuse - Worse. Offense carried the team and their 3 impact stars are gone. Defense should be improved though.
UNC - Better by default. Just getting healthy the team will improve, but they still have a huge question mark at QB and there will be a 3-way battle for the gig next year including a true FR.
WVU - Better. Team was good this year and will be better next year.

Assuming our big 3 question marks on offense return, I'd predict:
Wins - BC, WF, UVA, UL, SU, UNC, Marshall, Ga State, and JMU.
Losses - FSU, Clemson, WVU.

I'd probably expect one of those W's to end up a L for our one "WTF" game, so 8-4(5-3) with a chance at another 9-win season with a bowl win would be a successful season. I'd love to say 9 wins but I just think our D is going to have a lot of growing pains next season. Obviously all predictions change if we lose any/all of our 3 questions(Finley, Richardson, Hines).

1/2/2018 9:47:17 AM

ncstatetke
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do we really expect to beat JMU

14-0 this year
(soon to be) back-to-back national champs

I think they lose their QB, but they have a stud RB who rushed for about 2000 yards at Georgia Tech before transferring to JMU

1/2/2018 10:54:21 AM

LudaChris
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They're FCS...so yes. Remember when App State was supposed to give us fits when they were winning national championships at the FCS level and we pounded them when our team wasn't that good?

I mean JMU had 1 loss last season and they got beat by UNC by 28 points, the same UNC team we beat last year and had a 28-7 lead going into the 4th quarter.

Interesting thing will be that their top 2 RBs will be seniors next year, and both are from NC, in the class of 2015, and have some interesting ties to NC State. Marcus Marshall was a RB we recruited but ultimately decided not to offer and instead took Hines, Gallaspy, and Frasier. Trai Sharp was a guy that actually TRIED to commit to NC State in HS but he wasn't a "take" at the time, waiting to hear on our 3 higher ranked guys, so he got pretty upset and ended up at JMU.

1/2/2018 11:09:38 AM

dmspack
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Quote :
"do we really expect to beat JMU"


absolutely, yes. they're a very good FCS team. we are a good FBS team. we should definitely beat them. it would be a significant upset if they beat us.

1/2/2018 12:03:51 PM

BJCaudill21
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Don't see why we wouldn't beat WVU..

1/2/2018 12:35:04 PM

LudaChris
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If our 3 guys all return, I think there is a legit shot to beat WVU, esp. at home, but they're returning 8 starters on offense and 7 starters on defense, I just don't think our defense will have itself figured out by week 3 of the season and their offense is usually fairly potent.

1/2/2018 1:24:25 PM

justinh524
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Quote :
" Remember when App State was supposed to give us fits when they were winning national championships at the FCS level and we pounded them when our team wasn't that good? "


Yes I remember 2006 when the team that got Chuck Amato fired beat defending (and eventual) national champion App State.

1/2/2018 1:32:16 PM

bdmazur
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I think a 3-loss season or better is not out of the question.

1/2/2018 1:39:58 PM

thegoodlife3
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https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/boxscores/2006-09-02-north-carolina-state.html

Marcus fuckin’ Stone

the only memorable thing from that game is the App St player (QB?) puking on the field before a snap

[Edited on January 2, 2018 at 1:50 PM. Reason : .]

1/2/2018 1:43:20 PM

ncstatetke
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^ Tank Tyler. there's a name I haven't thought of in a while. I wonder why he never caught on in the NFL

1/2/2018 5:24:52 PM

PinkandBlack
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6-6, a trip to the Ditech.com Bowl. Lost another season to Doofus Doeren.

1/3/2018 10:56:49 AM

dmspack
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1/3/2018 10:59:27 AM

PinkandBlack
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In all seriousness I see 8 wins with FSU getting their loss back, Clemson loss (come the fuck on, they aren't Louisville. They won't drop much at all and Doeren hasn't won a big road game yet), @ Louisville loss bc that's the sort of game we lose, and wtf loss between Syracuse and a resurgent UNC.

But WE WILL be competing for the Playoffs until we lose a game. Fact.

1/3/2018 11:10:27 AM

themayor
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I read earlier today that Finley had the #1 passer rating in the ACC and #4 in the P5. If he's gone, this may all be semantics. Once he announces, the domino's will fall.

1/3/2018 1:51:36 PM

tulsigabbard
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francious was never good. they relied on a great rb and still struggled. breaking inna new coach will be tough for fsu.

we have dominated clemson two years in a row but didnt have a kicker. if dunn pans out, that should put us over the edge. renfrow is finnally gone.

1/3/2018 2:17:12 PM

PinkandBlack
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We need a countdown board that shows if we are still Playoff Competitors. It would be inspiring to look up there after starting 3-1 and see a sign that says "STILL PLAYOFF COMPETITORS."

1/3/2018 2:34:44 PM

rwoody
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Quote :
"we have dominated clemson two years in a row but didnt have a kicker."






FSU TE Izzo gone

1/3/2018 2:52:41 PM

Maverick1024
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Quote :
"francious was never good. they relied on a great rb and still struggled."


Totally agree. Not sure why people blame FSU's poor season on losing Francious. Blackman was arguably better than him despite losing a lot of weapons due to injury. And his ceiling is way higher.

That said, I think FSU will be better than Clemson next year. Kelly Bryant will take a big step forward, but I'm not sure it'll offset their loses on defense (including 3 first round d-lineman) and their only explosive WR

1/3/2018 4:02:32 PM

dmspack
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i do not think blackman was better than francois. i'm not disagreeing that he may have a higher ceiling. but they would have been better with francois than with blackman. i don't think francois would've been a hesiman candidate or anything, though. fsu did have a lot more problems than just francois' injury though.

clemson should still be pretty great next year. hell...this was supposed to be their slight down year/reload year after last season, really you can argue that they're a year ahead of schedule. a lot of that because kelly bryant was better than expected, i think. but also clemson just has loads of talent.

1/3/2018 4:35:24 PM

tulsigabbard
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they aren't returning to what they were. Deshaun Watson was a generational player. They will remain a top 10 team for a long time but it will take a great player to elevate a team to Alabama's level. Jameis Winston, Ezekial Elliot, Cam Newton, and Tim Tebow are the only other players to take a championship from Saban on this run.

1/3/2018 4:42:46 PM

dmspack
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are you arguing that they'll only be a CFP participant in the future rather than the CFP winner? that's what they were this year in their supposed down year after Watson and so many others left. sure they lose some this year too. and yes, Watson was a generational player. people said they were gonna drop off after Watson and so many others left last year...and they were #1 seed in the CFP this year. obviously they won't be that every single year. but right now they are easily the class of the ACC and should be in the national title conversation for the foreseeable future.

1/3/2018 5:18:09 PM

tulsigabbard
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they dropped off by a lot but so did our division as well as our defense. They were so good that they could drop off and still be #1. Yes they are still the class of the ACC but we are knocking on their door.

1/3/2018 5:35:41 PM

dmspack
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We’ve played them very well the last couple years head to head. Statistically, on the whole, we aren’t as hot on their heels as the head to head indicates...and while our recruiting may be improving, it’s still significantly behind Clemson. We are closer to Clemson today than we were 3 years ago. There’s still significant difference.

1/3/2018 6:06:58 PM

tulsigabbard
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True but I believe our team is designed specifically to beat Clemson and FSU while they are designing their teams to beat Alabama.

1/3/2018 6:14:25 PM

rwoody
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We're designed to beat FSU and Clemson while Clemson is designed to beat Wake, BC and south carolina. Oh and fsu and us and Louisville

1/3/2018 7:02:24 PM

MONGO
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Quote :
"i do not think blackman was better than francois. i'm not disagreeing that he may have a higher ceiling. but they would have been better with francois than with blackman. i don't think francois would've been a hesiman candidate or anything, though. fsu did have a lot more problems than just francois' injury though."


Yeah, I don't get the Francois hate. Dude had more passing yards then Clemson had total yards against Alabama.

1/4/2018 8:34:20 AM

PinkandBlack
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Chuck Amato teams were built to beat FSU and lose to Non-Qualifiers.

1/4/2018 8:39:30 AM

LudaChris
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Haha, Clemson had a down year at one position, QB. They had a bunch of injuries on D and played some young guys, they'll lose some of their DL but they're built like Bama, they replace 4*/5* players with 4*/5* players and the system doesn't change year-to-year so it's more of a plug-and-play with new talent.

Watson was a generational talent, but they have Lawrence coming in next year who is supposedly "the next Andrew Luck". I honestly expect him to beat out KB and start next year, though I do expect more of a 2QB system where they bring in KB for designed running plays. Lawrence has a big-time arm and should be able to do a MUCH better job of utilizing their talent at the skill positions than KB was.

Clemson is already preseason #2 for next year and they're the clear favorite to win the ACC, honestly not sure FSU or Miami are even on the same tier as them. I think we actually played better than them 2 years ago but we were definitely as good as them this year(provided they had a BUNCH of injuries in the secondary and were playing a WR at CB in the 2nd half), but I don't see how losing stars and adding a kicker means we're going to go TO Clemson and beat them.

FSU is all about how fast they can adjust to the new staff and the new system. I imagine they'll be implementing a new offense/defense with the new staff, so it'll be interesting to see how everything fits and if Taggert is actually a good coach or just a great recruiter.

The reports that Lamar Jackson is strongly considering returning to school would REALLY throw things off. I think it would be a moronic move given he's a projected 1st round pick, but if he came back UL would once again be a legitimate threat.

Sounds like Richardson and Finley are 50-50 right now. Richardson has been posting some stuff on twitter apparently about his decision, hopefully it's just to get a bunch of NCSU fan love before coming back. Reports are that Drink is officially staying and getting a raise/extension and was meeting with Finley earlier this week, so hopefully that was a good meeting. Classes start back next week so I imagine we'll know something soon as I doubt either of them would be attending classes while trying to prep for the NFL.

1/4/2018 9:28:06 AM

Maverick1024
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^Hadn't heard Jackson was considering returning. Bad move IMO. I know he needs to work on his accuracy, but he can do that in the pros while getting paid. I've seen recent mock drafts that have him going #1 overall (albeit, bad mock drafts). Most have him going in the 1st round.

Still think FSU challenges Clemson next year. FSU returns RB Cam Akers, who's going to be scary good in the years to come. They also have WR Auden Tate (sp?) coming back presumably. (He's the WR who was torching us all game until he got hurt. He just dominated in FSU's bowl game -- 3 TDs)

Assuming Blackman and/or Fracious improve, I think FSU's offense has potential to be much more explosive than Clemson next year. Not sure about the defenses tho.

1/4/2018 9:41:10 AM

dmspack
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fsu is just a major question mark with the coaching change. obviously they have plenty of talent, but there could still be a learning curve there.

Quote :
"Watson was a generational talent, but they have Lawrence coming in next year who is supposedly "the next Andrew Luck". I honestly expect him to beat out KB and start next year, though I do expect more of a 2QB system where they bring in KB for designed running plays. Lawrence has a big-time arm and should be able to do a MUCH better job of utilizing their talent at the skill positions than KB was. "


hell, they've got hunter johnson on the roster already too. 5*, #2 QB in the nation in 2017. i'm with you on clemson, they're as close as anybody is to Alabama.

1/4/2018 10:04:52 AM

justinh524
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Yeah, Clemson probably has the best QB talent pool of any team in the country.

Quote :
" Reports are that Drink is officially staying and getting a raise/extension and was meeting with Finley earlier this week, so hopefully that was a good meeting. "


I hope all of drinkwitz's salary is dependent on red zone success.

1/4/2018 10:23:53 AM

LudaChris
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Quote :
"Yeah, Clemson probably has the best QB talent pool of any team in the country."


Other than UGA you're probably right. I still don't understand how UGA keeps landing 5* talent at QB(I understand the RB run they're having).

Clemson:
Bryant - 3*, #420 overall
Cooper - 4*, #17 QB/#235 overall
Johnson - 5*, #2 QB/#30 overall
Lawrence - 5*, #1 QB/#1 overall

Georgia:
Eason - 5*, #2 QB/#5 overall
Fromm - 5*, #4 QB/#44 overall
Fields - 5*, #2 QB/#2 overall

I think the fact that Johnson didn't win the job last year over Bryant lends me to believe that he'll be transferring out in the next year or so once Lawrence wins the job. It really just comes down to whether or not Lawrence can come in and win the job next year or if they opt to try and RS him.

1/4/2018 11:18:28 AM

jbrick83
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^^ make 75% of our field goals and we have a top 25 red zone offense.

1/4/2018 12:27:56 PM

justinh524
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Nope, we're still not good at scoring TDs in the red zone.

1/4/2018 1:51:30 PM

jbrick83
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The red zone is a stupid arbitrary line. Someone posted this on PP a few weeks ago when discussing Drink:

Quote :
"Ole Miss (#6 in RZ Offense) got into the RZ 43 times and had 24 RZTDs (a TD 55.8% of the time) and 17 FGs: total RZ% of 95.3% season record 6-6

Kansas (#9 in RZ Offense) got into the RZ only 32 times had 18 RZTDs (a TD 56.3% of the time) and 12 FGs : total RZ% of 93.8% season record 1-11

NC State (#123 in RZ Off) got into the RZ 53 times(29th) had 31 RZTDs (a TD 58.5% of the time) and 7 FGs : total RZ% of 71.7% season record 8-4"


If you score TDs of 21, 23, 24, and 22 yards, 43, and 48 yards, you've got yourself 42 points. If you then go into the red-zone once all game and miss a FG, you've got a 0% red-zone scoring performance for that game. But who cares, because you scored 6 freaking TDs.

We were approximately median at "finishing drives" this year, meaning we scored 4.46 points per trip inside the 40. Not great, but definitely hurt by a few factors, including the poor FG kicking we had and also Doeren's strange preference to get inside the 40 and still punt from 4th and 2. We did that more than a few times this year, and every single one of them led to a scoreless trip inside the 40. That's on DD, not Drink.

1/4/2018 2:58:53 PM

dmspack
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Gotta quit punting inside the 45

1/4/2018 3:28:46 PM

packboozie
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https://www.backingthepack.com/2018/1/4/16850720/packs-2018-depth-chart-a-way-too-early-prediction

TL;DR version:

Quarterback: Finley, McClendon
RB: Hines, Gallaspy
TE: Autenrieth, Angeline
X: Harmon - C.J. Riley
Z: Louis - Emezie
S: Meyers - Trowell
LT: Jones - Philip Walton
LG: Prescod - Aaron Wiltz
C: Bradbury - Harrison Gee
RG: Sculthorpe - Fedd-Jackson
RT: Richardson - Justin Witt

DE: Roseboro - Deonte Holden
DT: Eurndraus Bryant - Grant Gibson
DT: Frazier - Alim McNeil
DE: James Smith-Williams - Tyrone Riley
MLB: Germaine Pratt - Louis Acceus
WLB: Brock Miller - Payton Wilson
Nickel: Freddie Phillips - Chris Ingram
CB: Nick McCloud - Kishawn Miller
CB: James Valdez - Bryce Banks
Safety: Jarius Morehead Stephen Griffin
Safety: Dexter Wright - Tim Kidd-Glass

[Edited on January 4, 2018 at 4:16 PM. Reason : Obviously could change with Finley, Hines, Richardson. ]

1/4/2018 4:16:09 PM

tulsigabbard
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man if they come back this will be the most stacked offense we've ever had.

1/4/2018 4:21:27 PM

themayor
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^^ has 10 or 11 seniors on that list as starters. I like our team next year if Finley comes back. If he's back, we will have 8 or 9 wins. If he leaves 6 or 7.

1/5/2018 8:28:51 AM

Ribs
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Harmon, Myers, Hines, and Finley are Sunday players in some capacity. That should be enough to handle most of the defenses we play next year outside of possibly Clemson.

Assuming all those guys are starting in the Fall anything less than 9 wins and the Clemson game deciding who plays for the ACC would be a disappointment imo. We have to capitalize on this talent we have right now.

1/5/2018 9:05:07 AM

LudaChris
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Interesting depth chart posted above. I definitely don't agree with a few of them, think I'd expect something more like this(once again assuming everyone is coming back):

Quarterback: Finley, McClendon
RB: Hines, Gallaspy
TE: Autenrieth, Angeline
X: Harmon - C.J. Riley
Z: Louis - Emezie
S: Meyers - Trowell
LT: Jones - Philip Walton
LG: Prescod - Aaron Wiltz
C: Bradbury - Harrison Gee
RG: Fedd-Jackson - Sculthorpe
RT: Richardson - Justin Witt

DE: Roseboro - Deonte Holden
DT: Eurndraus Bryant - Grant Gibson
DT: Frazier - Larrell Murchison
DE: James Smith-Williams - Tyrone Riley
MLB: Germaine Pratt - Louis Acceus
WLB: Brock Miller - Raven Saunders
NB: Chris Ingram - Freddie Phillips
CB: Nick McCloud - Kishawn Miller
CB: James Valdez - Bryce Banks
Safety: Jarius Morehead Stephen Griffin
Safety: Dexter Wright - Tim Kidd-Glass

K: Chris Dunn
P: AJ Cole III

I think Fedd-Jackson impressed enough starting at OG this year to start again next year taking Tony Adams spot. He had some growing pains this year but he really had some impressive plays(the Hines long TD run against UNC comes to mind).

The coaches rave about Chris Ingram, so with him playing some this year, I expect he'll have a great shot at starting next year. Whether or not he starts at NB or plays outside, not sure, but I think Ingram plays early and often.

Wilson is coming off a major knee injury, I just don't see him on the 2-deep as a true FR. He might be a candidate to RS but hopefully he'll recover fast enough to push for it, but the reports have been impressive about Saunders.

McNeil pushing for a spot on the 2-deep is also really optimistic. McNeil is a 4* recruit because of his upside, he's never played DL before(his first snaps at DL are this week at the Army All-American game). He might see some minutes in the rotation but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him redshirt as he learns some technique.

1/5/2018 11:14:57 AM

dmspack
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^yeah i tend to agree with you on the depth chart. especially about mcneil and payton wilson. i'm very excited about their future at State...not sure we can expect a ton out of them next year though.

1/5/2018 11:59:11 AM

rwoody
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Quote :
"The coaches rave about Chris Ingram"


Before or after the Wake game?

Also neither of you put a JaySam position. Doubt we just give up on that type of play/player. Maybe Person could take some snaps there.

1/5/2018 12:09:55 PM

themayor
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I dont see a scenario in which Person doesn't push for time. I could see us going back to an offense where hines wasn't so much the RB but more of the JSam position.

Also, the JUCO transfer Barbos (sp?) will push for time. Hopefully Alim McNeil will redshirt but he's a bad man, so he would push the 2 deep too. Same for Peyton Wilson.

1/5/2018 2:09:38 PM

dmspack
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i think hines proved he was too good at RB to be playing anywhere else. he's a much better RB than WR. person seems like he'll see the field and get opportunities this year. our offense should be loaded this year...just hope finley comes back or one of the other QBs can get the ball to our weapons. and not only do we have weapons...we've got depth. we've got the luxury of freshman not being heavily relied upon because the guy(s) in front of him are damn good too.

[Edited on January 5, 2018 at 3:07 PM. Reason : c]

1/5/2018 3:03:14 PM

rwoody
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Quote :
"To this end, I looked at how many of a teams all acc performers are gone (seniors only, not including early entry)

Cuse 100% (5 players all seniors)
Lou 2 3/7 (although prob safe to assume Lamar is gone) Alexander and OT Christian gone. Not all acc but WR Samuel grad transfer
Wake 45/12 (4/6 from 1st/2nd) RSSO S Jessie Bates gone
UNC 1/4 (can't expect them to have as many injuries next year either) Not allACC but Jr LB Smith gone
FSU 1/6 (derwin IS gone, Plus they get francois back right?) also Jr DE Sweat, not allACC
BC 3/9 (all from 3rd/hon)
UVA 2/7 (only 2 1st's)
Clem 56/18!! (pray for early entries) OG Hearn gone, heard Deon Cain was gone. Heard Wilkins gone too

Wake and UVA also have senior qb's. Everyone else brings back a qb that played this year

Obviously there are other factors but I think I agree with the post except that UVA might get worse losing qb and two best players.

We on the other hand are 4/11 and our QB comes back.

WVU is 5/15, gets their qb back and 2 of their big 3 wrs (all had at least 978 yards) but lose their 1000 yd rusher "


[Edited on January 6, 2018 at 2:42 PM. Reason : O]

1/6/2018 2:41:04 PM

GenghisJohn
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Finley is coming back

1/6/2018 2:48:52 PM

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