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dmspack
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Quote :
"Well why don't we talk about Gottfried avoiding scheduling legitimately good teams and instead loading up on slightly better than cupcakes."


Gotts first year - Vanderbilt, Texas (both in a preseason tourney thing), Indiana (B1G challenege so he doenst get credit for it), @stanford, #1 Syracuse (before they joined acc).
Second season - Penn State, UMass, Ok State (again, a season opener tourney), Michigan (B1G challenge), UConn (jimmy V classic), Stanford
Third year - @cincy, @tennessee, Missouri, northwestern (B1G challenge)
Fourth year - @purdue (B1G challenge), cincy, Tennessee, West Virginia (Gotham classic whatever that isn’t)
Fifth - Az St and LSU (both in a tourney), Michigan (B1G challenege), @missouri
Sixth - easily the worst....Creighton and Illinois (B1G challenge)

The only P5 OOC opponents we played last year were in the Battle 4 Atlantis (p sure scheduled while Gott was still here) and the B1G challenege. And this year Auburn is the only one that isn’t part of a tournament/classic thing (PSU and Vandy) or B1G challenge. Basically what I’m saying is...I think you’re misremembering Gott’s scheduling. The last year or two were bad. Aside from that we usually featured several P5 opponents.

11/21/2018 6:44:12 AM

tower
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it always felt to me like he intentionally avoided playing cream of the crop (only the first year struck my memory as especially aggressive given the expectation of the roster) but that list looks more impressive than I recall

I wonder if some of that is we just caught teams in down years more often, and that isnt always as easily predicted as youd expect

11/21/2018 8:49:03 AM

rwoody
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Yea lsu had ben Simmons, did people expect them to be bad with him? I don't remember.

[Edited on November 21, 2018 at 11:33 AM. Reason : Also Keatts prob assumed Auburn would have tons of ncaa sanctions by now.... ]

11/21/2018 11:32:09 AM

dmspack
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LSU was ranked when we played them, but much like Gotts teams...they had plenty of talent on paper but ended the season as a fairly mediocre team.

Also I feel like most of these P5 OOC games (for KK and Gott) are part of an early season tournament and the B1G/ACC challenge...so I’m not sure how much say coaches really have there. Sure, the coaches agree to play in the “legends classic” or whatever they’re calling the made-for-tv event and probably even lobby to get in them for exposure and all that. But as far as specific opponent within those tournaments, I kinda would doubt the coaches get much say in who we play and who else gets included in the tournaments. But obviously simply being in those tournaments usually presents the team with a chance to play *somebody* that’s a name opponent even if the coach isn’t specifically scheduling a certain team.

[Edited on November 21, 2018 at 11:40 AM. Reason : A]

11/21/2018 11:36:58 AM

Bullet
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All ten players on the roster scored at least 4 points last night, and all played double-digit minutes.

11/21/2018 11:59:53 AM

packboozie
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Not sure how you can like what KK is doing with this schedule. You cannot play teams 300+ in RPI, KenPom, etc. Schedule this year is the worst I can remember. When we do get to Wisconsin, Vandy, Penn State, and Auburn, I'm afraid we will have been so untested we may only win 1/4. We will then be banking on going over .500 in a loaded ACC.

UNC and Duke are the best at this....they play better small schools who are top 150 teams.

[Edited on November 21, 2018 at 5:25 PM. Reason : Not to mention PNC has been half full for all the blowouts because our fans don't use their tickets]

11/21/2018 5:24:52 PM

tower
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roy playing at wofford and at elon this year is pretty egregious in terms of trying to manipulate the group 3 group 4 stuff

11/21/2018 5:38:32 PM

dmspack
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^^ I mean we may only be favored in 2 of those 4 games so winning 1 outta 4, while disappointing, wouldn’t be totally crazy imo.

11/21/2018 6:01:39 PM

dmspack
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https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

first NET rankings. we're 31

11/26/2018 12:36:00 PM

Lionheart
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^So maybe KK already found the loophole in the NET.

Maybe beating up bad teams by alot is better than only marginally defeating average to below teams.

11/26/2018 1:07:29 PM

dmspack
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i think it's probably just too early to draw any conclusions from this

11/26/2018 1:08:22 PM

Lionheart
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^True enough that with any small sample size the results are going to be skewed, but this early in the season with our terrible SOS I wouldn't expect our rating to be so high unless there is a large weight put on margin of victory or offensive/defensive efficiency and a low weight on SOS.

11/26/2018 1:14:09 PM

justinh524
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But but but everyone on here was complaining about how our schedule was gonna kill us in the eyes of the committee!

11/26/2018 1:42:59 PM

dmspack
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Loyola Marymount is 10

Probably too early draw real conclusions from this.

^^I think margin of victory is capped at 10 points to avoid running up the score.

[Edited on November 26, 2018 at 1:51 PM. Reason : H]

11/26/2018 1:50:19 PM

justinh524
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Margin of victory is capped at 10, but winning by 50 helps in a huge way with net efficiency. In conclusion, a Gottfried type schedule would have hurt us this year.

11/26/2018 2:27:10 PM

bdmazur
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USA Today Coaches Poll gave us 19 votes (#34), but no votes from AP.

#14 BPI, despite having #352 SOS.

11/26/2018 2:49:52 PM

rwoody
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Love to draw conclusions in November

(and this doesn't include the quadrants at all so....)

11/26/2018 3:36:45 PM

tower
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THE KENPOMS have us mid 30s (we floated ~30 until the mercer egg) so us being 31 in NET says more "it didnt fuck us" to me than "keatts hacked the system." (then again, our RPI is 210, so maybe he did hack it)

I was interested to see where Nebraska landed. They did a similar move to us by beating up on really, really shit teams by very, very large numbers but then lost (and fairly categorically) when they played their 'Wisconsin.' They're 14th, so maybe Keatts did hack it? TBD

11/26/2018 4:03:52 PM

Bullet
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I think you guys are way over-analyzing this...

11/26/2018 4:05:10 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"i think it's probably just too early to draw any conclusions from this
"


Quote :
"Probably too early draw real conclusions from this."


Quote :
"Love to draw conclusions in November
"


Quote :
"TBD"


Quote :
"I think you guys are way over-analyzing this...

"

11/26/2018 4:26:20 PM

justinh524
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Unless you're playing top 160 teams (home wins for quadrant 3 cut off at 160), it doesn't really matter who you play as they'll all be quadrant 4 wins. So playing the dregs of college basketball(300+) and beating the shit out of them is better than playing somebody higher (160-200s) and having a smaller net efficiency. Trying to schedule a bunch of top 150 teams is also tougher and much, much riskier.

UNC will prob have more quadrant 3 wins because they played some of their lightweights on the road, but if they end up worse than expected they'll still be q4 wins.

Our quality OOC games are mostly neutral/away which will also help our NET.

[Edited on November 26, 2018 at 4:36 PM. Reason : But yes, it's super early. But people still fawn over polls and it's way too early for them too]

[Edited on November 26, 2018 at 4:37 PM. Reason : .]

11/26/2018 4:35:28 PM

ncsuallday
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I mean, many of these games are scheduled pretty far in advance. It's kinda tough to judge who is going to end up +/- that 160 mark. UNCA definitely could have made that cut in prior years and Mercer is right on the cusp. Mount St. Mary's has been in the lower half of the 200s at least. I'm not sure we intentionally made this OOC schedule quite as shitty as it is. Definitely worried about playing real competition in Wisconsin tomorrow, it's going to be quite a jump and it's also our first away game. If we can pull it off, we're solidly ranked.

11/26/2018 4:46:38 PM

rwoody
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Quote :
"Unless you're playing top 160 teams (home wins for quadrant 3 cut off at 160), it doesn't really matter who you play as they'll all be quadrant 4 wins. So playing the dregs of college basketball(300+) and beating the shit out of them is better than playing somebody higher (160-200s) and having a smaller net efficiency. "


Jesus christ. Either you need to admit you are trolling or you really can't read

11/26/2018 4:53:13 PM

Lionheart
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https://deadspin.com/college-basketballs-new-rating-metric-is-already-just-a-1830666141

Quote :
"Secondly, the efficiency stats don’t factor in the quality of opponent, which means averaging a point per possession against Duke is actually less valuable than getting 1.1 points per possession against Boston College."

11/26/2018 6:23:08 PM

justinh524
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I'm not trolling, that's how NET works.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-11-26/net-explained-ncaa-adopts-new-college-basketball-ranking

Quote :
"Before last season, a quadrant system was adopted to place greater emphasis on success in games played away from home on the team sheets, which offer a snapshot of each team’s schedule and results. The existing quadrant system still will be used on team sheets, with the NET replacing the Rating Percentage Index to sort games based on the opponent’s ranking:

Quadrant 1: Home 1-30, Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353"


Playing a team ranked 161 is no different than playing one ranked 353. Except that team is worse so your own efficiency ratings should improve, which thus improves your NET ranking. Obviously beating Q1,2 and 3 teams is better. But trying to schedule some team that hovers right above the 160 cutoff is a crapshoot. I am perfectly fine with the Kevin Keatts scheduling philosophy at this time.

[Edited on November 26, 2018 at 6:26 PM. Reason : ^yes. Keatts is gaming the system this year just like Gottfried did and you all hate him. Racists.]

11/26/2018 6:24:57 PM

rwoody
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No shit. People complaining about schedule don't want to schedule 200 instead, they want to schedule 100-150.

And FOH about "risky". If we can't handle those teams how will we get through the acc?

11/26/2018 7:14:37 PM

hey now
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Lol at us only a being a seven pt underdog at Wisconsin.

11/26/2018 8:21:07 PM

tower
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After taking a little time to see the teams that are doing much better in NET than they should be, here is my assessment on how to "game" it:

- Play absolutely awful teams at home and beat them by a million points (Keatts is doing this)
- Play mediocre teams on the road because the penalty for losing to them isn't that bad, whereas it's huge if you lose to them at home (Can't give KK too much credit here, the Wiscy game was scheduled for him and the Vandy/Penn St games are neutral, which is just a wash. As far as I can tell, this hasn't changed a ton from the way the RPI worked, except maybe you get more of a bonus for road wins now? Home losses always hurt more than they should)
- If you get up by a comfortable amount on a mediocre to good team, keep jacking 3s and run up the score. Dont put in the walk on, ever (Keatts does this!)
- Losing is bad (Kevin Keatts is a winner)

[Edited on November 26, 2018 at 8:40 PM. Reason : if im being honest, i dont understand how ND placed so high. Pitt *almost* makes sense]

11/26/2018 8:38:58 PM

dzags18
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I thought a blowout win doesn't actually count. Isn't the highest margin of victory counted like 10 points?

11/26/2018 8:47:00 PM

tower
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yeah they have that capped in MOV but apparently they factor in raw efficiency margin somewhere else in the calculation (the key thing here is *raw* EM, not adjusted - aka scoring 120 on wake > scoring 100 on virginia)

11/26/2018 8:59:36 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"Dont put in the walk on, ever (Keatts does this!)"


Do we even have any walk ons?

11/26/2018 9:07:01 PM

ActionPants
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Are we going to get a Wisconsin game thread, now that we have a real game?

11/27/2018 12:12:39 PM

Bullet
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^^Not according to the roster.

I've seen a guy on the bench a few times that has thick glasses. Who's he? I don't think its Bates... (actually, upon looking, I think it's Killeya-Jones)

11/27/2018 12:37:27 PM

Lionheart
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Just get Angeline to come on the team during the offseason




Lol this is the slowest paced hype video I've ever seen

11/27/2018 3:43:52 PM

bdmazur
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This means absolutely nothing, but ESPN's score game predictors have us favored to win all of our remaining home games except for UVA, and even that one is only a 52/48 split. This includes us as 61% favorites over Auburn, which I am not buying.

12/3/2018 12:59:43 AM

dmspack
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lol that seems absurd. but i'll take it!

12/3/2018 6:25:03 AM

tower
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the warren nolan predictor had us going 28-2 before the wisconsin game (27-3 now). probably the same deal, i think its based entirely off raw scoring margin

12/3/2018 7:26:40 AM

Dynasty2004
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Wow wouldnt that be some shit

12/3/2018 8:16:19 AM

Lionheart
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Quote :
"Ben Swain @TheBenSwain

NET rankings for ACC teams:

1 - UVA
4 - Duke
15 - State
18 - UNC
22 - Pitt
26 - Virginia Tech
34 - ND
38 - Louisville
40 - FSU
45 - Cuse
55 - Clemson
84 - Miami
91 - BC
94 - GT
233 - Wake"


I really want to know how this metric is weighted. It is both hilarious and fascinating some of the odd quirky positioning we are seeing.

12/3/2018 11:35:13 AM

justinh524
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I honestly don't think NET is as bad as everyone thinks it is.

It's clearly not in line with preseason/early season polls and expectations, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. Having watched a little of UNC and VT, they are both extremely overrated. UNC is currently BAD at defense.

12/3/2018 12:21:57 PM

Shrike
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Markell shooting 50% from 3 changes things. Anytime your primary ball handler becomes a threat from outside, it elevates your whole offense.

12/3/2018 12:33:31 PM

tower
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I actually think we’ve probably played like the 15th best team to date. The thing about these rankings is they’re most likely going to continue to adjust as the year plays out, whereas with the RPI at a certain point you were kinda locked in unless you won a bunch of games in a row (fairly hard in the acc). The only thing is if you get killed in a conference tourney game to an inferior team that could drop you A LOT when before it only really mattered if you were on the bubble.

It does seem we got a lot of credit for comfortably beating Vandy on a neutral court. That seems to be the way to game this. Expect a lot of ACC teams playing in Greensboro once Wes leaves, even in years the Tourney isn’t there.

12/3/2018 12:45:34 PM

Lionheart
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Yeah its just weird because at this point in the season the sample size is still so small you would think certain things like the weak schedule would be killing us. The traditional power conference thing is to play weak and let the conference SOS lift you up as you go through the season but its almost like SOS is a total non factor here.

Adding to that, a 10 point threshold for a "blowout" is too low. You'll get a 10 point margin on a close game on free throws at the end easily but if you look at our schedule we basically have a "blowout" every game except for Wisc and Mercer.

It's just weird because some teams are completely ranked appropriately and others are way out of what you would expect. For instance I would argue that based upon resume LVille and FSU should be more similarly ranked to us except their efficiency and margins are a little lower but against better bad teams. Will be interesting to see how the rest of the year shakes out.

12/3/2018 4:18:56 PM

tower
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i actually think for how early in the season it is the rankings arent that bad now. all the loyola marymount shit is taken care of

pitt being #22 is a little fishy tho

12/3/2018 5:52:51 PM

ncsuallday
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Quote :
"ESPN's score game predictors have us favored to win all of our remaining home games except for UVA, and even that one is only a 52/48 split. This includes us as 61% favorites over Auburn, which I am not buying."


Kenpom has us at 28 overall (14o/66d) and we are projected to lose home games against Auburn (45%), UNC (41%), UL (48%), UVA (39%), and VT (49%). All fwiw.

All in all, no blowout wins projected at home and the only blowout away games are UNC (20%) and Duke (11%) for a total of 21-0; 10-8.

Offense and Defense efficiency combined, at the moment this looks like our best squad since the 2004 season, give or take. I think we still have a lot of ceiling to improve this season, too.

I think we make the tournament easily, have a deep run in the ACCT, and make at least the S16.

[Edited on December 4, 2018 at 12:29 PM. Reason : cautious optimism]

12/4/2018 12:28:27 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"for a total of 21-0"


Oh hell yeah sounds good to me

12/4/2018 1:17:21 PM

Dynasty2004
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We on any TV or streaming tonight?

12/5/2018 3:57:47 PM

TreeTwista10
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Thuuz app says WatchESPN, no local tv

[Edited on December 5, 2018 at 4:02 PM. Reason : 7pm]

12/5/2018 4:02:13 PM

justinh524
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No TV, just streaming

12/5/2018 4:45:32 PM

TreeTwista10
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what's the hold up

12/5/2018 7:13:20 PM

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