How does this term end?

Time to place your bets!

1) Doesn't finish the term: resigns
2) Doesn't finish the term: 25th amendment
3) Doesn't finish the term: impeached, convicted, removed
4) Doesn't finish the term: dies of natural causes
5) Doesn't finish the term: dies of unnatural causes

6) Isn't the nominee: declines to run
7) Isn't the nominee: primaried
8) Isn't the nominee: convention shenanigans

9) Loses the election: undisputed loss, peaceful transfer of power
10) Loses the election: disputed loss, retains the office
11) Loses the election: disputed loss, loses the office
12) Loses the election: disputed loss, violence

13) Wins the election: undisputed win
14) Wins the election: disputed win, retains the office
15) Wins the election: disputed win, loses the office
16) Wins the election: disputed win, violence

1/24/2019 12:21:44 AM

He pretty much has to resign. For the simple fact that it’s the only way he has a chance of getting Pence to pardon him.

If he loses the election, no democrat would pardon him.

A big wild card is what punishments his kids face for criminal behavior.

There’s not going to be violence because he’s so unpopular now I don’t think anyone has the energy to go to bat for him.

[Edited on January 24, 2019 at 12:41 AM. Reason : ]

1/24/2019 12:40:48 AM

7) Isn't the nominee: primaried
8) Isn't the nominee: convention shenanigans

GOP committee passes resolution to cancel Republican primary due to Trump’s ‘effective presidency’
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/01/republican-party-passes-resolution-cancel-gop-primary-due-trumps-effective-presidency/

There are probably between 220 and 240 electoral college votes that will go R no matter what. My only prediction is that if he's reelected they'll start pushing to remove term limits for president.

1/24/2019 6:02:46 AM

Something in #s 1-9, with some chance of an unlucky 13.

If I had to narrow it down, I guess I’ll go with either 2020 loss or resignation.

...but I think you guys might be overestimating how much he’s a politically/legally dead man walking. Shitcanning a POTUS, even the shittiest one in modern history, is no easy thing.

1/24/2019 9:25:50 AM

His capitulation to Pelosi shows me that despite his general craziness, he is to some degree cognizant of the reality of his situation. That would point me towards resignation, either because he cuts some kind of deal with Mueller that keeps him out of jail if he steps down, or he wants to avoid the embarrassment of losing big in 2020.

1/24/2019 9:53:01 AM

9 if Bernie is the Dem nominee, 13 or 14 otherwise

1/24/2019 11:10:59 AM

13 or 14

1/24/2019 11:12:38 AM

^^^what capitulation?

Quote :

" you guys might be overestimating how much he’s a politically/legally dead man walking. Shitcanning a POTUS, even the shittiest one in modern history, is no easy thing."

Where did this come from? Who said he would be shitcanned?

1/24/2019 11:23:20 AM

Maybe we should include:

17) Flees, seeks asylum in Russia

1/24/2019 11:26:11 AM

I think 9 is by far the most likely (Bernie or no), though not as likely as I'd like (Bernie or no). I wouldn't write off 11, since Trump isn't the type to lose gracefully.

I'd rank 13, 14, and 6 as the next most likely outcomes.

I think 1-5 are unlikely overall, with 4 being the most likely of the unlikely. The caveat for 1 and 3 being whether or not something comes out linking Trump to significant wrongdoing in a straightforward and incontrovertible way (unlikely). Mueller isn't going to cut a deal with Trump.

I wouldn't rule out 8. Cancelling primaries strikes me as fairly significant sign of weakness.

1/24/2019 11:52:03 AM

I'll take 9, though several of those scenarios are plausible.

I really do think some level of political violence is a likely outcome. In a way, that's not saying much - "some level" is pretty vague, and arguably we've already seen him inspire vehicular terrorism/homicide in Charlottesville, a mail bomber, various rally assaults, etc.

But whether Trump leaves by the ballot or the impeachment process (and I find the latter to be extremely unlikely), he's already sowed the idea that such an outcome would be illegitimate. Mueller's an illegal witch hunt. The elections are frauds. Even if he's too big a pussy to try to retain power through heavy-handed means, some of his supporters will have internalized those messages and they will lash out.

Impeachment won't happen; not enough Republicans have the spine to stand up to the primary backlash. And while Trump's popularity overall is in the toilet, he still polls around 80% among Republicans - and that number will almost certainly go up once there's a Democratic nominee for so-called moderate republicans to start wringing their hands over. For the same reason, none of this "isn't the nominee" stuff will happen. The election process is robust enough to resist nationwide vote tampering on a scale that would be necessary for him to win at this point.

1/25/2019 9:24:04 AM

I don't understand how this posted twice. Apologies.

[Edited on January 25, 2019 at 9:24 AM. Reason : ]

1/25/2019 9:24:04 AM

When you say "disputed" what do you mean?

When Trump loses he will dispute the loss no matter what.

1/28/2019 4:43:32 PM

Yeah, I probably should've put more time into defining and phrasing disputed and violence.

For 10, 11, 14, and 15: Dispute in these scenarios refers to legal challenges (recounts, voter eligibility, hanging chads, etc.) that can be adjudicated by a court. The candidates accept the court's rulings.

For 12 and 16: Here I'm thinking of two situations: 1) Legal challenges but neither candidate accedes to the court's verdict, or 2) something happens to call the election results into question, but not in a way that can be resolved by the courts. For example, I'm not sure the courts are capable of dealing with widespread fraud or tampering. In either case, the election will have to be decided extralegally. I assume that will involve violence, but I suppose it doesn't have to.

1/28/2019 6:40:17 PM

I don't know the future, but I know which of these are implausible to me.

1) unlikely, could happen.
2) not sure what this one means...he became incapacitated due to health? Certainly could happen.
3) similarly unlikely to #1 above
4) could happen
5) unlikely, but assassinations do happen.
6) not plausible
7) they already declined to hold primaries this time around, last I heard
8) see #7
9) This how elections go. But, so far, he has been a better president than the latest Bush. I give it a 60% chance he looses
10) not possible
11) Disputes happen, not that different from losing
12) Disputes happen, not unreasonable to think people might get violent when elections have consequences. Especially depending on who they're running against.
13) Again, tis how elections go sometimes. But, I give it a 40% chance he could win.
14) Disputes happen, not that different from winning.
15) not possible
16) Disputes happen, not unreasonable to think people might get violent when elections have consequences.

1/29/2019 3:18:20 PM

Quote :

"10) Loses the election: disputed loss, retains the office"

Who enforces this? I don't think it would happen, but if a president decided to seize power after an election, what enforcement arm knocks on the White House door with the eviction papers?

Secret Service?
FBI?
Metro Police?
Is there a Sheriff in DC?

1/29/2019 9:41:06 PM

Quote :

"For 10, 11, 14, and 15: Dispute in these scenarios refers to legal challenges (recounts, voter eligibility, hanging chads, etc.) that can be adjudicated by a court. The candidates accept the court's rulings."

1/29/2019 9:50:54 PM

Yea, I got your scenario. And I think #9 followed by an indictment. I would have said #1 too but at this point he has to know he is being criminally charged as soon as he is not president so he rides to the bitter end. #4 is on the table as well, but I hope he doesn't become more of a martyr than he, undeservedly, is already.

I took of on a tangent outside of the thought experiment and wondered what would happen if a president just pouted (or truly tried to consolidate power and go dictator) and said he/she wasn't leaving, regardless of the courts, in "real life"

1/29/2019 9:59:05 PM

9. Because he’s too much of a pussy to do anything else.

That or a clogged set of arteries.

1/30/2019 9:05:27 AM

^^^^ It would be the supreme court Marshall after a ruling.

1/30/2019 10:44:16 AM

Did not even know that existed. I guess they get help from the US Marshals for muscle.

1/30/2019 11:18:41 AM

I mean, President loses and refuses to leave the white house...Well, I'm sure it will be a crowded room of everyone trying to escort him out at the same time. White House Security, Secret Service, a bunch of US Marshals show up. But there won't be any DC cops, I'm pretty sure.

Now, to even attempt to "hold the white house" he'd have to have replaced much of white house security and the secret service that run the place with loyalists (not Republicans, but him personally). Regretfully, these people are hired and apportioned by the bureaucracy outside the White House which given the career length was almost entirely hired under Trump's predecessors. To have any hope would have required regular ongoing purges of federal employees based upon loyalty and willingness to break the law for the President, things we'd certainly have known about by now, and the bureaucracy itself would not have tolerated.

But, if he does that, he can keep control over the white house itself. Of course, they can't even keep the lights on for very long after all that. The rest of government will barricade the street and sit there in a standoff, while the new President assumes full control over the country from some other Federal building somewhere, Congress perhaps.

Point is, no President would do this, not even Trump, because no matter what they did it is hopeless and would gain him nothing but a prison sentence.

[Edited on January 30, 2019 at 2:38 PM. Reason : .,.]

1/30/2019 2:37:53 PM

My fear is that there are members of WH security, FBI, secret service, CIA, etc who would fight to keep Trump in office if we end up with a disputed presidency.

1/30/2019 8:49:29 PM

^^ I think you're overestimating the strength of our bureaucratic institutions

Our accountability isn't self executing and the institutional knowledge for a lot of these issues is nonexistent because of how rare these problems are

There's been reports already of loyalty purges in EPA and the va and probably other agencies.

Gop Congress people are already trying to question the FBI for being too hard on stone, Rosenstein has 1 foot out the door with trump loyalists ready to swoop in.

I don't think we'll see a stand off but I see no reason to believe our institutions are in any better shape than failed democracies before us.

[Edited on January 30, 2019 at 10:04 PM. Reason : ]

1/30/2019 10:03:12 PM

^ I have no doubt Trump could stall or even squash an FBI investigation. With Republicans controlling the Senate, Trump has free reign over executive agencies. His power over the country is still tightly limited by the courts, of course, but that goes with any well functioning democracy.

But to suggest he could even find enough people willing to fight and die for a doomed lost cause of violently maintaining his presidency is ridiculous. These are first world citizens. We don't face exile or starvation if our boss looses his job. I'm a huge fan of cgp grey which did a video on this:
https://youtu.be/rStL7niR7gs?t=602

[Edited on January 30, 2019 at 11:07 PM. Reason : link]

1/30/2019 10:56:11 PM

Hopefully soon

1/30/2019 11:40:44 PM

1 or 9, coin flip at this point. If a super strong dem candidate appears then the scales tip towards 1 as he doesn't want the loss of face.

1/30/2019 11:40:56 PM

Bump in light of recent events.

I'll leave my money on 9 for now, but 1 and 3 have become significantly more likely.

9/30/2019 3:28:32 PM

I'm still leaning towards 13 or 14, but now I believe that 12 and 16 have a little pepper to them.

9/30/2019 4:18:17 PM

With a whimper and not a bang, hopefully.

9/30/2019 4:27:32 PM

^ A bang would great, if you know what I mean...

9/30/2019 4:49:27 PM

Oh, and here you go as far as an answer to this thread goes:

https://twitter.com/Oathkeepers/status/1178549790847590400

This option is not in the OP.

9/30/2019 4:59:17 PM

^how is that not 12 or 16

10/1/2019 5:56:31 PM

oh look OEPII making yet another assassination comment

[Edited on October 1, 2019 at 6:22 PM. Reason : how do i tag another post]

10/1/2019 6:20:08 PM

i even also posted that already in the rightwing extremism thread

10/1/2019 6:45:25 PM

Just realized that the winner take all electoral college system does have one benefit. Let’s say tulsi ran 3rd party and mitt ran on a 3rd party platform. Neither would win enough of any state to break the election (no one gets 270 EV) but they both still will impact the outcome individual states.

It’s sort of a forced coalition gov mechanism.

10/18/2019 2:12:46 PM

Quote :

"17) Flees, seeks asylum in Russia"

pretty sure it's shaping up to be this. this is the only way he gets out of this without going to prison. I can't see the resign -> Pence pardon ->absolution thing working out for him, mainly because at this rate I see Pence also getting arrested.

I'm gonna go for 17b) Flees, seeks asylum in Russia, leaving Pence holding the bag

10/18/2019 3:36:18 PM

^^ huh? you think either of them would win any states running on a 3rd-party ticket?

[Edited on October 19, 2019 at 1:22 AM. Reason : maaaaybe Mitt would win Utah or something?]

10/19/2019 1:21:42 AM

Quote :

"pretty sure it's shaping up to be this. this is the only way he gets out of this without going to prison. I can't see the resign -> Pence pardon ->absolution thing working out for him, mainly because at this rate I see Pence also getting arrested. I'm gonna go for 17b) Flees, seeks asylum in Russia, leaving Pence holding the bag"

Ludicrous.

One, Trump "fleeing" would require dozens of U.S. military and Secret Service personnel agreeing to commit treason. It's not like he can slip out of DC, hot wire Air Force One, and sneak over to Kaliningrad by himself.

Two, I don't think Russia would even take him. The risk of sparking an immediate war with the United States would be too high. He's a slobbering man-child, but he's had access to every U.S. secret for the last three years. We wouldn't let that happen, and if he somehow managed to make it to Russia, we'd have every incentive to strike fast before he could tell too much. Meanwhile, they'd stand to gain by turning him right back over to us. No, he might "seek" asylum (assuming he could flee in the first place, which, again, he couldn't), but he wouldn't get it.

10/19/2019 5:54:58 PM

You really think we'd go to war over him? I think the American people would shrug and let out a sigh of relief.

My thoughts on him fleeing are that he'd do it before he needed to hand over power or prior to a guilty verdict in the senate. You're fooling yourself if you don't think he could slip away unscathed. And Putin would just act like he knew nothing about it.

[Edited on October 19, 2019 at 7:23 PM. Reason : .]

10/19/2019 7:22:23 PM

Trump makes smart people have stupid thoughts

10/19/2019 7:44:09 PM

I like that turn of phrase.

[Edited on October 21, 2019 at 11:13 AM. Reason : Nice]

10/21/2019 11:13:07 AM

Bump in light of a Democratic nominee.

1) Doesn't finish the term: resigns
2) Doesn't finish the term: 25th amendment
3) Doesn't finish the term: impeached, convicted, removed
4) Doesn't finish the term: dies of natural causes
5) Doesn't finish the term: dies of unnatural causes

6) Isn't the nominee: declines to run
7) Isn't the nominee: primaried
8) Isn't the nominee: convention shenanigans

9) Loses the election: undisputed loss, peaceful transfer of power
10) Loses the election: disputed loss, retains the office
11) Loses the election: disputed loss, loses the office
12) Loses the election: disputed loss, violence

13) Wins the election: undisputed win
14) Wins the election: disputed win, retains the office
15) Wins the election: disputed win, loses the office
16) Wins the election: disputed win, violence

4/9/2020 1:46:23 PM

13

4/9/2020 1:55:16 PM

still a fan?

4/9/2020 1:56:28 PM

I hate Trump...and I totally thought he was going to 13. But, I'm not so sure anymore...I think he'll still win, he just won't win enough for it to go undisputed anymore. So, 14.

4/9/2020 4:36:48 PM

Can we add entire administration gets wiped out by a global pandemic they claimed to be a hoax? That's still a possibility. (4 and 5 don't end the administration, just Trump's role in it)

[Edited on April 9, 2020 at 8:24 PM. Reason : -]

4/9/2020 8:22:32 PM

Still 9 a year plus later

4/10/2020 12:38:56 AM

i'll go 9

4/10/2020 1:57:13 AM

9 and 13 are the only realistic options remaining

[Edited on April 10, 2020 at 2:46 AM. Reason : i mean i guess 4 and 5 are possible, but that's it]

4/10/2020 2:46:06 AM