Nah, I think we're screwed (but still hoping for a big surprise)

5/29/2024 1:58:11 PM

Elon Musk in talks supposedly for a Trump endorsement

i think the trials do move the needle. Comey announcing hillary was not found to be in violation for anyhting hurt her poll numbers, then announcing a 2nd time they found no violating material again hurt her poll numbers. It was 2-3% points but enough to cost her the election

2-3% would put biden in a position to win the electoral college.

5/29/2024 4:46:21 PM

But the vast majority of his supporters don't care at all on the outcome of any of these trials

5/29/2024 4:51:14 PM

his supporters won’t be the ones to tip the election in his favor

5/29/2024 6:15:23 PM

^^^^^ & ^^^^

chill guys, Trump is gonna lose. I'm telling you, I know this to be true

5/30/2024 12:52:31 AM

Quote :

"But the vast majority of his supporters don't care at all on the outcome of any of these trials"

His supporters - the actual MAGA-hat wearing, stop-the-steal guys - are not the ones to influence. But there's some sizable percentage of Republican voters who kept voting for Haley after she dropped out - as much as 20-30% in some states. And of those who did vote for Trump, there's some fraction who are holding their nose and doing it because they figure he's going to win the nomination and they want a Republican president.

The latter group almost certainly couldn't be swayed to vote for Biden, but they might become disgusted enough to abstain from voting for President, or to vote for Libertarians or RFK or whoever. The former group probably has much of the same, plus some who could probably be convinced to actually vote Biden. These are the people to influence, and I think the legal issues could have some effect. That effect doesn't have to be huge. Remember, 2016 was decided by a few tens of thousands of voters (sometimes less) in a handful of states.

5/30/2024 10:25:55 AM

Good

5/30/2024 6:04:14 PM

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2020/national/

Biden had a 7% lead over trump at this time in 2020– but obviously in the midst of coronavirus

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2016/trump-vs-clinton

Hillary had a 4% lead

Biden currently has a 1% deficit

Biden has been trending upwards the past 6 months while trump has been flat— if Biden continues his trend he’ll be on track to win. But Biden also hit his lowest approval rating recently, despite sharp right turn on immigration, pushing for cease fires, several rounds of student loan forgiveness, and calling Netanyahu out. The aid bridge has so far been a failure in Palestine, any drastic action either way would be a big political liability.

Meanwhile trump seems to be locked in at 46% no matter rape liabilities, association with Epstein, slurring speech, felony conviction, lying about classified docs, very unpopular position on women’s healthcare choice, increasingly hateful rhetoric about immigrants, condescending pandering to African Americans… nothing. Maybe he’ll have a dud VP pick like Palin that will sink him.

But overall things are looking very daunting for Biden now. He’s almost out of tricks to play at this point.

6/6/2024 10:53:35 PM

Although I want Trump to lose, I would feel most comfortable if he picked Rubio or Cotton as VP. I still feel like it has to either be a female or a man of color though. So like Rubio, Scott, or Stefanik(sp?) from NY. I think Scott is too much like Pence for Trump to pick him. I do not think or hope Vance, Donalds, Burgum, or Carson

6/7/2024 2:25:50 AM

Quote :

"any drastic action"

Funding the war effort, killing the UNRWA in Gaza, condemning the ICC, and generally refusing to make any real efforts to stop the starvation and bombing of innocents is pretty drastic imo.

6/7/2024 7:11:14 AM

And Trump says Israel has not received nearly enough support. So let's vote for him instead! I trust that can't be the calculus of disaffected progressives.

6/7/2024 7:58:31 AM

Trump being worse is irrelevant to my point.

But also "I'm the lesser evil" isn't a very inspirational campaign slogan.

6/7/2024 8:42:48 AM

No, I agree. But if we want to dedicate a lot of time to being negative about the current guy, during the peak of an election cycle, unless the negativity imparts policy changes that actually widen the base of voters rather than turns them off, we can be sure the former guy is ready to step in and be much worse. I'm not even sure what my point is. Certainly not a suggestion for blind or unquestioning loyalty, but I am quite concerned about the impacts of a Trump win in November, and almost everything else seems secondary to that. I'd hope Biden can get the win, and then we can trash him all we want about how he isn't progressive enough.

6/7/2024 8:56:19 AM

Yea i think "progressives" would argue that "don't support war crimes or genocide" is a basic moral philosophy and be frustrated that's considered a "progressive" position. And also very conflicted that they will be forced to make the choice bw voting for someone that violates this basic moral position or stay home and potentially allow in something worse.

It also sucks bc I believe this subset of voters was very pleased with Biden before this war he's been mostly pretty great! But this is a big, hard to overlook negative.

2024: fun!

6/7/2024 9:45:34 AM

I'm only using "progressives" as a general grouping of people with similar ideas as compared to peers with opposing views, not as a pejorative descriptor.

Has Biden really openly supported war crimes? I think we need to be somewhat careful with the definition of support of an action. Israel is an independent actor that is going way overboard in many ways. So is the biggest issue with Biden that he hasn't drawn AND enforced redlines? Israel has put him in a no-win situation with various important elements of his historical base.

Tough times indeed.

6/7/2024 10:37:58 AM

Quote :

"QUESTION: Right. So you’re just saying that we don’t know if Israeli forces have committed war crimes in Gaza or not? MR MILLER: I would — QUESTION: You said, “we don’t know.” MR MILLER: I would go a bit further and say that we said in the – we don’t know the definitive answer to it, but the NSM-20 report said it’s reasonable to conclude that they may have, given the sheer number of incidents. But we need to finish these processes to have definitive answers to the question. QUESTION: So despite these assessments, you think – there is no change in the U.S. policy to continue providing arms to Israel? MR MILLER: There is no change in our policy. As you know, we paused one shipment; we have not – but we have not changed our overall policy, and we will continue to support Israel’s security."

I think the questions are, is Biden directly supporting the war effort? Easy yes

Are there war crimes being committed by Israel? Debatable but seems like tons of evidence says yes.

Seems like if both those questions are yes, then Biden is supporting war crimes. He's not endorsing them but hes not willing to take real steps to stop them.

6/7/2024 3:23:24 PM

Quote :

"But also "I'm the lesser evil" isn't a very inspirational campaign slogan."

People always bitch about this, but essentially thats what any US Presidential election is. Whether the citizens vote for the right one is debatable. Frankly I trust the process. Never losing confidence in US, have to be too many gatekeepers for something bad to happen.

6/8/2024 3:00:32 AM

Something bad is about to happen.

6/8/2024 7:42:25 AM

nah

6/8/2024 11:40:50 PM

What is the source of your confidence?

6/9/2024 6:59:18 AM

Biden just has to lose Dearborn, Michigan because of the Palestine situation and that alone could cost him the election.

6/10/2024 10:11:10 AM

Quote :

"But overall things are looking very daunting for Biden now. He’s almost out of tricks to play at this point."

I think he's still got a number of cards to play, but whether he (or the Democrats in general) can play them well is another matter. There's also far fewer routes for Trump to gain votes and plenty where he could shed some.

The debates do have some meaning. Both Biden and Trump are more than capable of rambling incoherently and saying the wrong thing, but when he's good, Biden is still a solid speaker and debater. If that guy shows up against the typical, "batteries-and-sharks" ranting Trump, it will have an impact.

Abortion and contraception are still issues that play well and the campaign has shown a strong ability to play them in the past.

I think the outcome of the Hunter trial is less important than how it's handled (which so far I think is well), as well as how effectively that handling is messaged (which is not as strong).

These are all things that the Biden team can affect that would gain them votes from independents and disaffected Republicans. Meanwhile, what can Trump actually do to get more voters? Not much. He can benefit from Biden flubbing the debates or looking senile in a speech, and no doubt he's hoping for the economy to take a dump, but he can't actually make those things happen.

6/10/2024 10:27:58 AM

Biden is definitely winning the election. I can guarantee this.

6/10/2024 10:39:26 AM

I hope you're right, but the data does not suggest you will be

https://www.realclearpolling.com/elections/president/2024/battleground-states

[Edited on June 10, 2024 at 11:05 AM. Reason : vs 2020 https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/trump-vs-biden-top-battleground-states/]

6/10/2024 11:02:43 AM

Fred, data is like sex, you don't try to understand it, you just manipulate it to get what you want out of it

[Edited on June 10, 2024 at 3:48 PM. Reason : integrity]

6/10/2024 3:42:41 PM

well according to this data, we're all about to get fucked

6/10/2024 4:05:52 PM

Oh no, what about the Virgin Islands? They didn't even get a say in this!

6/10/2024 4:14:00 PM

Quote :

"batteries-and-sharks" ranting Trump"

This is apparently normal for him?? Saw the clip from the the other day and then this one from last year!

https://x.com/DilliDurAst/status/1708850608592028120

6/10/2024 9:40:49 PM

ngl anybody who posts an x.com link is getting cucked

[Edited on June 10, 2024 at 10:30 PM. Reason : nttawwt]

6/10/2024 10:30:26 PM

Can I change it back to Twitter and have it still work? I paste it as it comes

6/10/2024 10:32:06 PM

Quote :

"I paste it as it comes"

gross

6/10/2024 10:33:21 PM

For you, I would do a fancy ghost edit, but I have no power

Just make me super mod and ill fix it

6/10/2024 10:54:10 PM

^^^^You're gd right

6/10/2024 11:05:20 PM

https://www.270towin.com/

Click reset map, then change to polling

Biden has to flip the current polls in every battleground state to win

6/10/2024 11:15:08 PM

Quote :

"Can I change it back to Twitter and have it still work?"

Apparently, yes.

6/11/2024 6:27:39 AM

MORON

6/11/2024 1:59:20 PM

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/

538 has another model that has been showing Biden as more likely to win. Not sure the difference…

6/11/2024 4:03:13 PM

They both seem to put it right down the middle with "analysis" rather than just showing polls

270 doesn't give a percentage chance I think but the 2024 consensus is almost dead center.

6/11/2024 4:48:09 PM

Ahh one’s a forecast using multiple inputs ones the current poll averages

6/11/2024 8:38:42 PM

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2004/bush-vs-kerry

Thinking about 2004 where Kerry supporters were rabidly angry at bush for stealing 2000 and the Iraq ears

They were doing well in the polls. But the overall economic situation wasn’t that bad overall and bush ended up winning

I could see the same thing happening this year. Trumps supporters are more rabid and vocal, but most people hate trump still and the economy is doing well, so I can see Biden’s incumbent status being what pushes him over.

6/17/2024 2:55:59 PM

Theft of Iraq ears was a much bigger motivator back in 2004.

6/17/2024 3:10:43 PM

https://abcnews.go.com/538

Biden has seen a big positive inflection in his approval ratings and he’s just .5 points below trump in both 538 and RCPs polling average

If he can hold this momentum for another week he’ll be in the lead polls wise

It sucks but if I had to correlate it with anything, him basically adopting the gop position on immigration might be the main factor.

6/19/2024 8:52:34 PM

Trump is up in every battleground state. I really am not prepared for a turbo-charged Trump to dominate the political landscape for another 4+ years. But I think it's prudent to start preparing for such a reality.

6/19/2024 9:31:48 PM

What suggestions do you have for that?

Send this fucker to jail where he belongs.

I'll be so disappointed in my fellow Americans.

6/19/2024 9:48:02 PM

Honestly I'm afraid I think the best advice is to ignore the noise. Focus on what matters in your day to day personal and family life, and hope to survive the next few years and see where we end up. Speak up as your conscience dictates as needed, try not to be overcome by propaganda and brainrot, and resist letting the world drive you mad. We're gonna need our brains in tiptop shape and the constant agitation of world affairs and culture war battles doesn't seem to be doing us much good.

[Edited on June 19, 2024 at 11:02 PM. Reason : see some of you on the other side]

6/19/2024 11:01:25 PM

I'm blaming NBC for the whole thing.

6/19/2024 11:37:05 PM

I try not to blame the fools among us. We are only human, after all

6/19/2024 11:45:57 PM

NBC is a company, not a person.

They screwed over David Letterman
They screwed over Conan O'Brien
They created the myth of Donald Trump as a successful businessman and edited out his overt racism

That's three huge strikes. Come on, that's good for some blame.

I hope in time to gain your seeming equanimity.

Or, I hope emnsk ends up being correct with his completely unsupported yet seemingly unshakable confidence in a Biden victory.

6/19/2024 11:58:20 PM

Quote :

"Trump is up in every battleground state."

Look, I'm not a guy who's gonna say "Biden has this in the bag," but we've gotta quit talking like it matters when the polls say who is up. We've got five months until the election. The polls, insofar as we should put stock in them, are very, very close.

And I definitely don't put much stock in them. A pollster called me the other day to ask who I was voting for in North Carolina's gubernatorial election. I haven't lived in North Carolina for almost a decade. Points for not just relying on landlines, I guess. Of course, this is just one small anecdote, so instead I'll refer you to the polling predictions in the last two Presidential election cycles and the midterms.

A Trump victory is very possible. I worry about it a lot, not least because he will have more say than I wish he would in my continued employment. But at this stage polling casts a faint shadow, and there are some bright spots of hope. The economy is humming along right now and God willing it will stay that way. Every Trump appearance is riddled with signs of incipient dementia, and I hope it's on full display in both debates and in every speech he gives between now and November. The GOP party leadership is now fully in the hands of Trump loyalists and family members rather than competent, experienced political strategists. The Democrats, for all their gerontocracy and other shortcomings, are at least run by seasoned campaign veterans.

And, like I said before, Biden has ways to proactively gain votes. He might not employ those, or he might employ them badly, but he has options. Trump can really only hope for Biden screw-ups.

6/20/2024 10:36:43 AM

perfectly said

6/20/2024 11:33:14 AM