It's also a dumb system to say 99% chance of winning anything that splits the pot. It just caters to the Hillary market of making it seem like won and lost primaries make a bigger difference than delegate counts.

Right now the 12-9 state count is fairly close to the actual divide of delegates and popular vote, but it won't be once the big boys come into play (Florida, Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, California)

I'm also angered by those who claim that Bernie only wins in small states. Here are each candidates state "wins" by their population rank:

Hillary: 2, 8, 12, 15, 17, 23, 24, 25, 30, 32, 33, 35
Bernie: 10, 21, 22, 28, 34, 37, 41, 42, 49

He clearly is doing better in small states, but both of them mostly have wins in the 20s and 30s. There's not enough evidence to say he can't win big states when only 3 of the top 10 and 6 of the top 20 have voted so far:

1-10: 3 (2 Hillary, 1 Bernie)
11-20: 3 (3 Hillary, 0 Bernie)
21-30: 7 (4 Hillary, 3 Bernie)
31-40: 5 (4 Hillary, 2 Bernie)
41-50: 3 (0 Hillary, 3 Bernie)

Hillary has "won" 5 of the 6 1-20 states to vote so far, so that gives some merit to the argument in her favor, but we'll see what happens with Florida, Illinois, and Ohio on Tuesday.

[Edited on March 10, 2016 at 6:09 PM. Reason : -]

3/10/2016 6:02:20 PM

If you actually read the articles they make it very clear that they are not winner take all contests

3/10/2016 6:55:50 PM

Rally in Charlotte today at PNC Music Pavilion. Doors open @ 1:30

3/14/2016 12:18:17 PM

A big loss tomorrow means its time to get out. I'd say a hillary sweep or a losing 1 state but having +10 in all the others would be enough to say bernie should drop out. Anything else and survive/advance

[Edited on March 14, 2016 at 1:34 PM. Reason : k]

3/14/2016 1:29:50 PM

No, Bernie needs to stay in till the end regardless

3/14/2016 1:31:04 PM

^^
that isn't going to happen though. look at the RCP averages today.

plus there was huge outreach over the weekend so its likely even better

3/14/2016 1:39:58 PM

via GIPHY

3/14/2016 2:49:39 PM

Quote :

"No, Bernie needs to stay in till the end regardless"

If Bernie stays in, he has a choice. He can stop attacking Hillary and use the campaign as a platform to spread his ideas. Or, he can keep attacking Hillary and hurt her chances in the general.

3/14/2016 3:18:06 PM

he's hardly been attacking her even now

3/14/2016 3:22:53 PM

lol right, as if the republicans wouldnt hit her 10x as hard in the general. this should be considered good practice.

[Edited on March 14, 2016 at 3:46 PM. Reason : v what does that mean plz? im too old to know things anymore]

3/14/2016 3:31:47 PM

HOT TAKE ALERT

3/14/2016 3:33:44 PM

The only way Bernie is hurting Hillary's chances in the general is keeping the possibility alive that she won't make the general.

3/14/2016 8:03:06 PM

That's incredibly delusional. There are many Sanders supporters who have stated they won't vote for her in the general and it is because of how they perceive her acting towards Sanders during the primary. If he did not exist they would likely vote for her without even thinking about it.

3/14/2016 9:09:32 PM

^
so he should drop out of the race because she's making herself look bad with false attacks?

3/14/2016 9:17:57 PM

I want him to stay in until the bitter end. I can't stand Hildog and I'm loving every minute of it. If he was only concerned about a D winning he should drop out, if he is more concerned about his message/movement then he should stay in.

3/14/2016 9:30:16 PM

Polls suggest 33% of Bernie supporters will not support Hillary as of now. Aside from Clinton being the establishment with Wall Street ties etc., the way the DNC has treated Sanders will make it difficult for some to line up behind her.

3/14/2016 9:49:48 PM

a lot of us never would have voted for clinton in the first place. thats what the establishment is overlooking. we are not democrats. we are people that sanders has drawn to the party and you made a big mistake when you chose hillary as your candidate. thats why sanders does better in general election polls.

3/14/2016 9:54:34 PM

I would vote Clinton over Trump and Cruz. Kasich I'd probably vote for him. Rubio, I'd abstain.

3/14/2016 9:54:51 PM

Quote :

" There are many Sanders supporters who have stated they won't vote for her in the general and it is because of how they perceive her acting towards Sanders during the primary. If he did not exist they would likely vote for her without even thinking about it. "

You're going to need to support that

The Sanders supporters I know and have read about already knew Clinton's record and we're never really interested in voting for a neo-con. As Sanders support has grown he has adopted more of the party democrats who may have otherwise voted for Clinton no question, but his base is people who likely would have stayed home otherwise.

3/14/2016 10:31:29 PM

Quote :

"Polls suggest 33% of Bernie supporters will not support Hillary as of now"

Turns out people can't accurately predict what they're going to do in the future, especially when emotion and politics are involved in that prediction - http://www.thenation.com/article/relax-bernies-supporters-will-support-hillary-if-shes-the-nominee/

Quote :

" I can't stand Hildog and I'm loving every minute of it."

Loving every minute of Hillary beasting Bernie? You're talking like a Democrat who is loving the shitshow that is the GOP primary, but it's not even remotely comparable.

Quote :

"If Bernie stays in, he has a choice. He can stop attacking Hillary and use the campaign as a platform to spread his ideas. Or, he can keep attacking Hillary and hurt her chances in the general."

Quote :

" If he was only concerned about a D winning he should drop out"

These talking points are hilarious. I haven't checked the polls, but I'm wondering if this talk is motivated by superior Bernie numbers vs Drumpf in the general, or if it's the right's wet dream that Bernie is actually trying for and landing punches against Hillary, which is laughable on both counts, or both.

3/14/2016 11:35:23 PM

Interesting

3/15/2016 4:28:26 PM

Is there a trend I'm not seeing?

3/15/2016 5:38:51 PM

Hes won or tied every state where he has 60%+ of the share of Google searches. He has over 60 in all 5 states today.

3/15/2016 5:42:16 PM

so obviously that trend is ending today. i think trump blaming bernie may have something to do with extra google searches.

exit polls show 57% of NC democrats said they most valued a candidate who would continue obama's policies while only 24% said they most valued a candidate being liberal. Sounds like a landslide.

I'll be happy if bernie can sweep the midwest states.

3/15/2016 6:59:10 PM

put that methodology right up there with the the conference of the super bowl winner predicting the party that wins the white house.

it's time for bernie to bow out. he had a nice run, and did better than most anyone predicted, but it's over.

[Edited on March 16, 2016 at 9:05 AM. Reason : .]

3/16/2016 9:04:22 AM

Why?

While the writing may be on the wall for his path to the nomination he still carries a message that needs to be heard and considered. Staying in the race makes Hillary more accountable to the large Democratic base that obviously finds some truth in what he's saying, especially when it comes time for the general election.

3/16/2016 9:12:00 AM

</trend>

3/16/2016 9:14:15 AM

It is kind of funny that in Clinton's speech last night she basically hijacked a lot of Bernie's ideas. Which is a good thing if she follows through (yeah right!)...

3/16/2016 9:30:56 AM

Quote :

"Staying in the race makes Hillary more accountable to the large Democratic base that obviously finds some truth in what he's saying, especially when it comes time for the general election."

Which part of the Democratic base are you speaking of? The southerners, whom you all so roundly dismiss as unimportant? The blacks, who according you you all can't think for themselves? The blue collar workers, who just swept her to a victory in Ohio?

Or do you mean she needs to be accountable to the independents who are voting in democratic primaries? Because those are the people who are keeping bernie even in this. AJA last night had polling data that showed 70% or more of registered democrat votes going to Hillary. Bernie isn't winning over the democratic party. He's not speaking to the democratic base.

I will give you this. Keeping him around will take away coverage time from Drumpf and the GOP, so I guess he serves some purpose at this point.

[Edited on March 16, 2016 at 9:59 AM. Reason : .]

3/16/2016 9:57:48 AM

Quote :

"AJA last night had polling data that showed 70% or more of registered democrat votes going to Hillary"

Basic math would indicate that around 30% of registered Democrats do not side with Hillary, and I think it's fair to assume that the majority of those votes went to Bernie. So, lets say around 25% of registered democrats side with Bernie...that seems to be a fairly large percentage. Not yooouge, and obviously not the majority, but enough to where she needs to tread carefully if she wants to secure their votes for is shaping up to be a close election.

Not to mention the registered unaffiliateds, and independents that she'll need support from as well.

[Edited on March 16, 2016 at 10:08 AM. Reason : ]

3/16/2016 10:07:50 AM

Bernie does not appeal to democrats. He appeals to progressives and brought a lot of us into the party but we will be back out soon.

3/16/2016 3:23:19 PM

Doubt it, most "progressives" will happily line up behind Hillary.

3/16/2016 4:13:43 PM

not I

3/16/2016 4:16:23 PM

I would line up against trump, he would be a disaster. Hillarys biggest danger is sucking us into another war, and she wouldn't put her heart into ending inequality, so no worse than any republican.

3/16/2016 4:26:45 PM

I'm still not sure. I'll have to see how each of them dial it back in the general. Trump has had some surprisingly liberal stances in the past, and even up to this point. The rhetoric he's using now, though, is definitely unacceptable. He'd have to change the tone in a huge way. Still wouldn't vote for him, though.

3/16/2016 4:51:13 PM

why are you skipping over both 3rd party and just not voting to considering voting for trump?

wtf, don't ever call yourself a progressive, please

3/16/2016 4:57:55 PM

I feel like trump would stick it to wall street and do a lot to get money out of politics. The oligarchy is the main long-term barrier to common sense progressive legislature. I can see how someone could reach a logical conclusion that trump is the best way to start destroying the current system we have in place today.

3/16/2016 5:04:23 PM

^^
I'm not. I'm saying I'll vote for Hillary if Trump doesn't dial it back and shows a chance to win.

Call me whatever you want, I'm going to a Green Party event this weekend. I also signed up to volunteer.

And alongside that I'm a delegate for Sanders and running to go to the DNC.

[Edited on March 16, 2016 at 5:12 PM. Reason : .]

3/16/2016 5:09:19 PM

^^ That's a bit Faustian.

3/16/2016 5:54:32 PM

lol i see Earl is firing up the Trump Troll Machine

3/16/2016 6:16:19 PM

I'm definitely a progressive and I'll hold my nose for Hillary in the general. LOL at dtownral's attempt to label people though. That's rich.

3/16/2016 6:37:45 PM

this isn't bush or McCain. the current version of trump is a violence enabling fuckin lunatic. so like I said, unless he reels it in hard, im voting to stop a race war

3/16/2016 6:56:00 PM

I mean does it matter if he reels it in? If he says, "nah, I was just saying at that crazy shit to get the nomination. NOW I'm being serious..." you are going to believe him? I sure hope not.

3/16/2016 7:01:29 PM

at this point he's the only one who can reel it in, so I'm hoping he does have something planned. he was a liberal not too long ago. im not discounting the possibility.

3/16/2016 7:10:03 PM

it doesn't make much of a difference either way. we have a black president who says all of the right things and black boys get killed in the park so i don't see how things can get worse.

children get turned back at the border, attacks on muslims are at an all time high and we have terrorist drones blowing up families around the world.

3/16/2016 7:19:42 PM

yeah at least trump is against continuing the endless cycle of violence in the middle east.

3/16/2016 7:27:23 PM

We know Trump lies/exaggerates to win support, that's virtually incontrovertible at that point.

Let's look at his past and present views, or what he says are his views.

-Consistently against foreign interventions/"regime change", was against the war in Iraq
-Used to be pro-choice, has "evolved" to pro-life (it's really hard for me to believe this is possible, but okay)
-Supports protectionist trade policies (this is something Democrats typically support)
-Strongly anti-illegal immigration, but wants to increase "legal" immigration, including H1B visas
-In the 90s, he said the only way to win the war on drugs was to legalize them, in order to take power away from drug kingpins
-In 2000, said "we must have universal healthcare"

So, in the 90s up to 2000, Trump could be solidly called a moderate, pro-business liberal. At this point, he already had established his dynasty, and he was an adult in his late 40s. Have you ever heard of someone doing a 180 on their political ideology at age 50? I don't think it's very common at all. People may tweak certain views, but their general views are set in stone at that point, probably much earlier really.

I think Trump is playing the long game here, operating at a level we haven't really seen in modern politics. Yes, we've known politicians that say what they need in the primary and then dial it back in the general, but this a whole new league of political adaptation.

My guess is that Trump will pull more Democrats in the general election than any GOP contender since Reagan.

3/16/2016 7:58:44 PM

Quote :

"Have you ever heard of someone doing a 180 on their political ideology at age 50?"

you don't have to look very far to find her

3/16/2016 8:33:57 PM

Theres a lot of trump talk in here for being the Bernie thread and all

3/16/2016 8:56:21 PM

Theres a lot of trump talk in here for being the Bernie thread and all

3/16/2016 8:56:21 PM