BC beating UL makes a 6 or 7 seed a lot more likely if we can win at least 2/3 remaining. Beating FSU would be huge

[Edited on February 27, 2019 at 11:59 PM. Reason : .]

2/27/2019 11:58:13 PM

If Lou beats notre dame at home, we'd have to win out to pass them. Losing to bc helps, but not much.

We need to beat fsu, or have clemson beat Syracuse.

2/28/2019 7:19:32 AM

Pretty sure we need FSU to be in the tie break to help us out, which would require us winning out, and for them to lose to VT.
If we win out, a 3-way tie with Lville and Cuse is the worst case scenario and it would keep us in the 8 (each team would be 1-1 vs the rest and they both would have better wins).
If FSU is thrown into a 4-way tie we would get the 5 seed (FSU and State would be 2-1, while Lville and Cuse would be 1-2 vs the rest and State would have beaten FSU in this scenario).

Of course those scenarios are based on Lville beating UVA, if we are ahead of Lville at the end of the season then we have all the tie breaks vs any combo of FSU and Cuse

[Edited on February 28, 2019 at 8:14 AM. Reason : .]

[Edited on February 28, 2019 at 8:14 AM. Reason : .]

2/28/2019 8:08:10 AM

Wouldn't we beat Cuse in a 3 way tie because we have the head-to-head win?

2/28/2019 10:52:49 AM

I believe in a tie with more than two teams, the tiebreaker goes to record against all the teams in tie.

[Edited on February 28, 2019 at 11:04 AM. Reason : .]

2/28/2019 11:04:05 AM

Yeah in 3+ way ties, the first tiebreaker is winning % within the group, and if that doesn't break the tie it goes to winning % against the top team, continuing down until at least one team is eliminated from the tie. At that point the remaining 2 teams are compared head to head again.

2/28/2019 12:35:11 PM

Where is SKJ going?

3/1/2019 6:10:19 AM

NBADL? i guess getting draft ready. seems like odd timing. need to pick up some ballers for next year.

3/1/2019 7:52:29 AM

YOU = BALLER

3/1/2019 8:41:36 AM

Quote :

"Where is SKJ going?"

He has a British passport (mom is from UK) so I'd imagine he's going to try his luck in the euro league. The announcement pretty much confirms all of the rumors that he just wasn't going to class.

3/1/2019 9:04:47 AM

Quote :

"need to pick up some ballers for next year."

Do we have two scholarships available? SKJ and Steere's?

We have Lecque and Seabron coming (well maybe?)

3/1/2019 10:46:02 AM

Charges against Lockett have been dismissed. Apparently there was video evidence that supported his side.

3/1/2019 10:46:03 AM

Went looking for ^, but came back with this

https://www.wralsportsfan.com/nc-state-transfer-sacha-killeya-jones-turning-pro/18226583/

3/1/2019 10:53:05 AM

^^,^

https://accsports.com/acc-news/assault-charges-nc-state-eric-lockett-dismissed/

no more info than justin provided

3/1/2019 11:12:59 AM

^ that's def more info than justin provided. Primarily moving from a #sources discussion to an actual source, but also with the followup tweet.

3/1/2019 11:48:02 AM

Well the only #source when I posted that was Giglio's tweet. SORRY FOR NOT I
OWNING A SPORTS MEDIA OUTLET

3/1/2019 12:13:13 PM

I just assumed it was Packpride or w/e

3/1/2019 12:44:17 PM

Lol I do not visit pack pride. It is the worst place on the internet.

3/1/2019 12:59:06 PM

Hmmm what happens now

3/1/2019 2:02:06 PM

Justin, you should own a sports media outlet and call it This JustIn Sports News. It would be a good name.

^he was suspended “indefinitely” so I’m guessing he’ll be back now.

[Edited on March 1, 2019 at 2:24 PM. Reason : A]

3/1/2019 2:23:20 PM

I should do that. It would be like ESPN, but good. I would never hire Jay Bilas to call basketball games or Jesse Palmer to call football games. It would be great.

BRB going to go set up a GoFundMe page.

3/1/2019 2:28:56 PM

Lockett would still have to go through the student disciplinary process. He is prob still done.

Also has anyone refuted that he threatened to kill her? If not he needs alot of help before he comes back imo.

3/1/2019 2:41:32 PM

I've heard part of him getting the charges dropped was going to anger management counseling, so that could be related to his threats to kill her

3/1/2019 2:50:30 PM

Frustrating that we couldn’t get any big wins this year. I know we beat Auburn but it is not like last year when we had several big wins.

3/3/2019 12:08:09 AM

I'm not expecting us to knock off Duke or UVA in the tourney, but one thing we have going for us compared to some other teams in the conference, as well as some other recent State teams, is conditioning and depth. That could be big when we're talking about playing on potentially multiple consecutive days. Might not get us signature wins over top-10 teams, but could give us an edge versus another middle tier team who also played the day before.

3/3/2019 12:43:23 AM

I'm sure that will be very useful in the 8/9 and 1/8 games we will be playing in

3/3/2019 1:22:31 AM

if you don't think it could be helpful in the 8/9 game, then you're probably someone who "calls games over" during the first half and consistently gets proven wrong.

3/3/2019 2:10:24 AM

CMON WAKE!!

3/5/2019 9:07:45 PM

Quote :

"I'm not expecting us to knock off Duke or UVA in the tourney, but one thing we have going for us compared to some other teams in the conference, as well as some other recent State teams, is conditioning and depth. That could be big when we're talking about playing on potentially multiple consecutive days. Might not get us signature wins over top-10 teams, but could give us an edge versus another middle tier team who also played the day before."

I appreciate some shred of positivity in ST, even if it isn't realized in the ACCT. So thank you, Twister of Trees.

[Edited on March 5, 2019 at 11:01 PM. Reason : ^^ lol at "probably" ]

3/5/2019 11:00:49 PM

That's our 4th embarrassing, "outlier" loss of the year. Fun.

3/6/2019 11:02:38 PM

Where's the 19-20 thread

3/6/2019 11:03:50 PM

We seem to be fading at the end of the season instead of peaking.

3/6/2019 11:07:47 PM

We are a club hockey school anyway.

3/6/2019 11:09:17 PM

Maybe the Virginia Tech game and this one are clouding my memory but how are we the 4th best 3 point shooting team in the ACC? That stat surprised me. Beverly is usually good and Markell gets on hot streaks but that seems like our two strong points.

3/6/2019 11:22:46 PM

i haven't really been following all the new net ranking and everything and how tournament selection will work; did this loss close the door on any tournament hopes?

3/7/2019 8:13:23 AM

The bubble is super soft, so any solid ACC tourney wins would help (and not losing at BC) bring State back to serious consideration.

On the flipside, the current resume leaves little to be desired. The team has had plenty of opportunities to rectify it and have failed so far (a Virginia win would have been amazing). Two bad Q3 losses (@Wake, GT), historically bad offensive showing in the VT game, and the worst OOC schedule are all very damaging. The ACC record is even inflated a bit because they got to play H&H series with some of the worst teams in the league (Pitt, BC, Wake).

3/7/2019 8:28:19 AM

yes, but the NET , if we get 2 wins in the ACCT (one would be against the number 1 seed) we'd have a signature win.

In reality this team just isn't that good. they can't avoid these must win loses and haven't closed out games against good teams (LOU, UVa, FSU, some others). no big conference wins. if this team get in they won't last long.

3/7/2019 8:34:53 AM

Quote :

"Maybe the Virginia Tech game and this one are clouding my memory but how are we the 4th best 3 point shooting team in the ACC? That stat surprised me. Beverly is usually good and Markell gets on hot streaks but that seems like our two strong points."

We’ve also had some pretty lights out performances from 3.

@pitt we were 14/27. @fsu 9/19. @UL 12/27.

And in the non conference (unsure if that stat is for conference games or what) we shot >40% in 8/13 OOC games.

And we’ve only had like 3-4 straight up terrible nights (@wake 21%, VT 7%, GT 23%)

3/7/2019 9:03:01 AM

even if we're teetering on the bubble, they still deserve a game thread wtf

3/9/2019 1:55:48 PM

Lol somebody fucked up!

3/9/2019 4:52:46 PM

Our 3 point% in conference is 7th and we attempt the 10th most threes

3/9/2019 5:24:02 PM

we are 10th in attempted 3s?

I thought we shot a higher than average amount of 3 pointers

3/9/2019 8:55:52 PM

So sounds like if we beat Clemson we should be good for the tournament but lose to Clemson and maybe not. Come on Pack, at least win us one game.

3/9/2019 11:03:53 PM

Should be like #30-32 in NET. 32 in KenPom. Not sure how we wouldn't be in.

Can't tell me 16-15 Texas, 17-15 Bama, and 20-11 St. John's are in over us.

3/10/2019 12:16:39 AM

this twitter thread is a pretty interesting take on the NET and us being on the bubble

Quote :

"More When you hear that NC State played the worst non-conference schedule, I want you to picture who you think they played. Would you believe at Wisconsin? Home against Auburn? Neutral court against last year's NIT champ Penn State? Another SEC team in Vandy? It's not the most daunting schedule, but it's not an easy one to go undefeated against. I could find you 150 schedules I would rather play if my goal was to get the best record after 13 games. The problem is the bottom of the schedule. The teams that NC State played from a small conference happened to be among the worst in Division I. 2-26, 3-25, 4-26, 5-24, 6-25, 7-22. That's right, they hit the bad team straight. Sure, NC State could have foreseen some of those teams being awful, a couple were dregs last year. But some went from mid-majors with decent records a year ago to absolute collapse. UNC-Asheville, for example, 19 D-1 wins in 2018, 2 this year. Their non-conference opponents won .425 last year, and .313. You also have, on top of those bad teams, Vanderbilt going winless in the SEC. I mean, they were just a tourney team two years ago. So some of the non-conference is several NC State opponents tanked. Now ask yourself if UNC-Asheville winning 2 games or 10 games really matters in determining how good NC State is. If you think it should, you love the RPI. If you think NC State shouldn't really get credit for it, but it also shouldn't be a negative against them, you prefer NET. NC State going 6-0 against really bad mids shouldn't be worse than going 3-3 at home against decent ones. And the reality is, they played a schedule that included a road game at Wisconsin and against Auburn, went 12-1, then went 9-9 in the ACC which is no small task. Maybe they don't get selected because they are 1-8 against Quad 1. But then again, they are 7-0 against Quad 2. That combined 8-8 record against top two Quads is better than most bubble teams. "

none of this is really ground break stuff, but it helps put it in perspective when talking about our terrible OOC schedule. i hope we do schedule better in the future. but scheduling better doesn't mean we need to play a lotta top 25 teams. it just means we should try to avoid teams in the 300s. obviously i'm biased because this is impacts State making the tourney this year. but i think it's pretty lazy to punish us for our schedule...sure it should be taken into consideration. but is there really a huge difference in us playing UNCA (ranked in the 300s) vs us playing, say, Rider (in the lower 200s)? Rider is objectively better...but i feel like at that point we're getting too far into the weeds sometimes.

[Edited on March 10, 2019 at 7:59 AM. Reason : that was @jasonlink on twitter]

3/10/2019 7:59:19 AM

When I looked last night Lunardi had us as last four in playing in Dayton. Jerry Palm on CBS had us out of the tournament and several teams ahead of us.

3/10/2019 8:35:24 AM

^^really interesting take.

I feel like we'll be in on Selection Sunday but we're staring down the bubble pretty hard. Blowing out BC on the road helps mitigate the GT loss, I think.

Lunardi hasn't updated his bracket or tweeted about it since BC. We were an 11 after GT but then he bumped us down again to a play-in 12. Bracket Matrix has us in 64/94 brackets with an average 11 seed but I'm not sure how many of them have updated since BC.

We are #32 in NET rankings. The committee has said in prior years it uses RPI to put teams into wide categories but not to make final cuts. We look horrible in RPI at 101. The committee has also said it officially considers Kenpom, BPI, and Sagarin, where we're 32, 23, and 24, respectively.

I've seen us last four in and first four out in a lot of brackets. There's just no telling how much the NCAA will factor in its own rankings system this year. I feel like 21 wins and 9-9 ACC should be enough if we keep it competitive against Clemson but winning Clemson will seal the deal. I'd love to see a UVA rematch, too.

3/10/2019 2:32:28 PM

Jerry Palm was on David Glenn a couple weeks ago and completely shit on us and our schedule. Fuck him and his wannabe bracket

3/10/2019 5:36:50 PM

Quote :

"The committee has said in prior years it uses RPI to put teams into wide categories but not to make final cuts. We look horrible in RPI at 101. The committee has also said it officially considers Kenpom, BPI, and Sagarin, where we're 32, 23, and 24, respectively"

Good thing the committee isn't using RPI at all this year.

3/10/2019 5:39:16 PM

Quote :

"Jerry Palm was on David Glenn a couple weeks ago and completely shit on us and our schedule. Fuck him and his wannabe bracket"

Our schedule obviously was bad. But honestly who gives a fuck if we stomp UNCA by 35 or stomp Mercer by 20? Neither result is particularly good at answering the question “is NC State good and are they a tourney team?” I realize the argument I’m making is super self serving...but I feel like we’re giving shitty opponents too much weight. You should be rewarded for playing good teams, but beating really bad teams or just kinda bad teams should ultimately be a wash imo (which I think is how NET kinda works). Also...look at Miami’s OOC schedule. Does this schedule harder than ours? It ranks about 100 spots better than ours


Lehigh, SF Austin, Campbell, Seton Hall, La Salle, Bethune Cookman, Rutgers, Yale, Fresno St, Penn, FAU, Houston Baptist....

I know Miami’s not a bubble team so it doesn’t matter, but to the “eye test”, that’s an easy schedule...and easier than ours IMO. And I’d rather play that OOC schedule than the one we did play (assuming the goal is to win as many as games as possible).

I just picked Miami because they had fairly poor OOC rank (252), but one that was significantly better than ours.

3/10/2019 8:57:24 PM