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 Message Boards » » NC State Basketball 2018-2019 Page 1 ... 14 15 16 17 [18] 19 20 21, Prev Next  
Dynasty2004
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^its almost like no one has any idea what they are talking about

3/15/2019 8:35:04 AM

hey now
Indianapolis Jones
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It's content. Plain and simple.

3/15/2019 8:41:06 AM

rwoody
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Quote :
"How many ACC teams have gone .500 or better in conference play, won 20+ games and not made the tournament?"


3 since 2010 plus a 19 win clemson team

3/15/2019 9:18:02 AM

cptinsano
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Quote :
"ESPN Bracketology has us in a 11v11 play-in game vs Florida, winner to play 6-seed Maryland (wouldn't mind taking down both those programs, but would really hate losing to either)"

3/15/2019 9:29:57 AM

rwoody
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I don't think the NET has updated but Penn St may drop out of the top 50

3/15/2019 9:31:09 AM

dmspack
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^yet another reason it’s all so arbitrary. The Penn State win is no different than it was yesterday. And yet it could show up differently on our Q1 win record. That’s one of the problems with the quadrants. It’s a decent idea in theory. But there’s a big difference in playing Duke and playing clemson. Obviously not all Q1 losses/wins are created equal. And I’m sure the committee takes that into account - or at least I’d hope

3/15/2019 9:49:51 AM

packboozie
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Penn State is actually up to 47. We dropped one to 33. Imagine being the 33rd best team and not getting in a field of 68.

[Edited on March 15, 2019 at 9:54 AM. Reason : St John's is 72....they better not get in ]

3/15/2019 9:53:35 AM

ncsuallday
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93/119 (78%) of brackets have us in as an average 11 seed. I'd expect many more to update throughout the morning and that number to increase.

I think we're firmly in as a 10 seed. The NCAA isn't going to ignore their own NET metric, and it's very similar to where we are in Kenpom (32) and we're even higher in Sagarin (24) and BPI (27). Not to mention that we were ranked for several weeks, deservingly or not.

The NET and other metrics factor in SOS and while the ranking of our OOC looks terrible, the "eye test" isn't bad when you see #8 Auburn, last year's NIT champs Penn St., Vandy, and Wisconsin. Add to it that the other half of our season was an ACC gauntlet that we emerged from with some good wins (Clemson x2, Syracuse, etc.) and some really close losses and I think it's hard to say we don't deserve to be in over 15 loss teams like Texas.

3/15/2019 10:00:57 AM

rwoody
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^^Oh nice!

[Edited on March 15, 2019 at 10:01 AM. Reason : E ]

3/15/2019 10:01:11 AM

dmspack
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And Indiana at 53 and 17-15 overall. How are they even considered on the bubble? lol. There’s a whole lotta over thinking going on by the bracket dudes. And yeah, a lot of it is for #content.

But the NCAA ain’t gonna create a new metric to replace the old shitty RPI and then ignore their new metric.

^^ in terms of seeding, I wondered if the committee might make us a 9 seed to “punish” our OOC schedule with a potential #1 seed in round 2. I don’t think we’re a super dangerous tourney team this year, but I’d rather be a 10 or 11 than a 9. But the committee may not seed that way, idk.

[Edited on March 15, 2019 at 10:05 AM. Reason : A]

3/15/2019 10:03:16 AM

packboozie
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Quote :
"in over 15 loss teams like Texas"


Lost to Kansas so make that 16-16 now. No chance they deserve to go.

^Would love to be a 10 and play a 7 Utah State and then be in #2 Gonzaga's bracket.

3/15/2019 11:43:27 AM

Elwood
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Welp VCU (31 NET) lost to rhode island.

3/15/2019 2:40:50 PM

dmspack
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They have a good record, good NET, and beat Texas but are they considered an at large lock now? Glancing at their schedule they haven’t really beaten anybody of note.

[Edited on March 15, 2019 at 2:48 PM. Reason : Tell me about their numerous Q1 wins (seriously I have no idea what their resume is)]

3/15/2019 2:43:59 PM

Elwood
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VCU listed as an 8 seed by Joe-blow. also Florida is up 3 with a minute left. need them to lose.

3/15/2019 2:54:44 PM

DROD900
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Not looking good for us, boys

3/15/2019 3:03:54 PM

dmspack
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UF wins. Seems like they’re in. Honestly, I haven’t watched more then a few mins of UF this year. But an 18-14 team getting in, and IU supposedly on the bubble at 17-15 seems wild. I’m not claiming UF is undeserving because I have no idea. But on paper at those records.

3/15/2019 3:06:23 PM

dmspack
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Saw on twitter that VCU has 2 Q3/4 losses (same as us)

3/15/2019 3:42:55 PM

DROD900
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I watched the entire UF/LSU game (first time I've seen either play this year) and Florida definitely looks like a better team than us. LSU is damn good and didn't have an off night/game

Don't know anything about VCU but during the broadcast when they announced they lost it sounded like they were a lock to make an at-large.

3/15/2019 3:48:23 PM

ncsuallday
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dropped out of 5 brackets on Bracket Matrix.

3/15/2019 3:49:38 PM

rwoody
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I've seen some say they already thought UF was in, so this doesn't change a ton.

Vcu maybe does

3/15/2019 4:07:58 PM

scotieb24
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Where is that site that had nice breakdown of each team's quadrant wins/losses where you could select a team and it would show a detailed view of the teams they played in each quadrant? All I've found so far is the list off teams with just w/l #s for each quadrant.

3/15/2019 4:08:47 PM

Jeepin4x4
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Let's start talking about hosting another NIT game at Reynolds. Maybe DROD900 won't get kicked out 30 seconds after the tip off this time.

3/15/2019 4:08:55 PM

rwoody
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^^not exactly what you mean, but on ncaa website you get the pdf of every single team and ctrl-f for the team you're curious about

3/15/2019 4:12:31 PM

DROD900
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^^

3/16/2019 12:50:42 AM

tower
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we should be like a 9 seed. if we miss the tournament its entirely because of the shitty nonconference scheduling being like triple counted by the committee

3/16/2019 11:46:20 PM

scotieb24
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Sounds like Oregon may have knocked us out

3/17/2019 11:11:18 AM

justinh524
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Yeah, because Washington now has one victory over an NCAA team (Oregon)

3/17/2019 12:06:01 PM

DROD900
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Seems like everyone is referring to us as the first team out

3/17/2019 12:25:03 PM

natureboy
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I hope we squeak in, sucks when you don’t have your team to watch. Still interesting to track office pools, but not near as exciting.

3/17/2019 1:41:05 PM

Brass Monkey
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All of our metrics outside of the antiquated RPI are in the high 20s to low 30s. If they went on that alone we’d be an 8 seed. I hope we are solidly in at an 8-10 seed just to say F you to all these blowhards that said before the Clemson game that the winner was in, only to move the goal posts and say we didn’t look like a tournament team after.

[Edited on March 17, 2019 at 1:50 PM. Reason : ]

3/17/2019 1:49:41 PM

BJCaudill21
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Auburn looking like they might win the sec can't hurt

3/17/2019 2:16:02 PM

justinh524
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There are people who are projecting 3(!!!) Pac12 teams in. That's absolute garbage. Washington won the regular season, but has exactly no over anyone ranked above them in net (they're like 45). They have 2 Q1 wins and 3 Q2 losses. Their best win was over Oregon, who they also lost to twice. Arizona State is waaaay down at 63 in net and have 2 Q4 losses.

There is really no good argument for either of those teams being in ahead of us. That whole conference is shit.

3/17/2019 2:21:29 PM

DROD900
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But they declared themselves as the Conference of Champions!

3/17/2019 2:30:47 PM

justinh524
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They should be a one bid conference and Oregon should be in a play in game.

3/17/2019 2:52:49 PM

statered
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I think the Pac-12 ought to get 2 bids but not 3. Either Arizona State or Washington should be sitting home over us. Both had chances to beat Oregon and secure their spots and both blew it. Penalizing us for them losing is garbage.

Also having a hard time seeing how both Oklahoma and TCU get in over us. The Big XII getting 7 of 10 teams in and the ACC only getting 7 of 15 teams in, 3 of which are 1-seed caliber, would be bullshit. Give us 5 games against the top 3 teams in that conference and we would go 2-3, not 0-5 like we did against Duke, UVA, and UNC.

Not to mention beating Auburn, the SEC winner.

3/17/2019 3:14:44 PM

dmspack
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While I don’t think the ACC will get 3 #1 seeds, I do think they’re all 3 deserving. And there’s a possibility that we get left out with basically half of our losses (5/11) being to #1 seeds. Or at the very least to #1 and #2 seeds.

Which is why NCSOS is so dumb to weight so heavily. We play in the best conference. Usually have at least 4 games top 10 teams and probably close to 6-8 vs top 25 teams already baked into our schedule plus 2 ranked OOC opponents this year. Why do we so desperately need to challenge ourselves so much more beyond that? We had 5 games against teams that will definitely be in the top 5. And idk if they come out with another poll until after title game, but as of now Auburn, FSU, VT, and Wiscy would be top 20 (if not higher) in addition to playing Duke, UNCx2, and UVa x2. So I just don’t get the idea that our NCSOS should matter so much.

If you’re comparing us to a team with a very similar resume but a top 100 OOC SOS, then sure. But don’t compare us to 17-15 IU or 18-15 Bama or St Johns as if all else is equal.

And another edit:
We beat auburn. Yet that’s only a Q1 loss for them. In other words, we’re good enough to be considered a “good loss” but maybe not good enough to make the tourney? That’s kinda dumb.

[Edited on March 17, 2019 at 3:30 PM. Reason : A]

3/17/2019 3:22:08 PM

statered
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^ Agreed on the non-conference strength of schedule. The SEC schedules out-of-conference cupcake opponents in football every year and more often than not they go out and clown everyone else in post-season play. If you play in the PAC-12, then sure, a Strong our-of-conference slate is a much needed litmus test for how good you are...for a team from the ACC, not-so-much.

Did I mention Washington lost by 20 to Auburn?

[Edited on March 17, 2019 at 3:36 PM. Reason : Clarification]

3/17/2019 3:35:14 PM

dmspack
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Yeah it seems like overall SOS is a better metric than NCSOS because you should schedule OOC with your conference schedule in mind. Play in a shitty conference with few chances for big wins or games against big opponents? Then make up for it in OOC. Play in a very hard conference with 8 top 25 games? Then you can afford to have a lighter slate OOC imo

3/17/2019 3:41:47 PM

ncsuallday
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the NET factors in SOS, so I'm just hoping that nobody knows what they're talking about and that the NCAA gives a lot more weight to this tool they invested a shit ton of money in and developed with Google, recognizing that RPI is inherently flawed. NET looked wonky at the beginning of the season, but seems like a good reflection now, and is generally on par with Kenpom, Sagarin, BPI, etc, where we also fare very well. So much for "winner of NCSU vs. Clemson gets a bid" if we don't get in. All of the people screaming for Belmont to get in over us just because they watched an exciting final with them against Murray St. can eat shit.


[Edited on March 17, 2019 at 4:14 PM. Reason : .]

3/17/2019 4:13:16 PM

tower
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our overall SOS is still really bad, i dont think people realize that it doesnt matter how many top 25 teams your play if you schedule 10 300+ teams your SOS is going to suck

3/17/2019 4:14:46 PM

dmspack
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^i understand that. But that’s not the point. The point is - who gives a fuck if you beat the #200 team by 18 points or the #320 team by 28 points? Neither win is particularly impressive if you’re a bubble team. Yeah, the rankings improves but it’s not substantially more impressive.

Basically, it’s just bullshit that if instead of scheduling Mt St Mary, UNCA, and MD Eastern Shore we had scheduled Iona, Richmond, and App we’d be in. Noting about us as a team would be any different.

[Edited on March 17, 2019 at 4:40 PM. Reason : A]

3/17/2019 4:36:47 PM

rwoody
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It might be stupid, but it was semi known before the season, so if we do miss Keatts will have some questions to answer I'm sure

3/17/2019 4:47:23 PM

dmspack
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^oh definitely...and it was a shitty OOC last year too. i'm not defending the OOC schedule. just sayingthe weight that's put on it seems dumb

3/17/2019 4:52:14 PM

TreeTwista10
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Asheville is 4-27 this year, but last year they were a 23-win team. That's not intentionally scheduling a shitty team, that's just bad luck.

3/17/2019 4:53:06 PM

ncsuallday
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we played 8 teams with new head coaches this year. UNCA's coach left for a better job, as did some other teams we scheduled. Vandy had a lot of injuries down the stretch. Penn State hasn't been horrible, and Auburn is looking like a pretty good win. Syracuse, Clemson twice, taking UVA to OT, putting up more points than anyone on UNC, etc. We had Markell out for several games but still won a couple in there.

But then we go lay a record-setting egg against VT, lost to Wake and GT, etc.



looking at our DI SOS, we're better off than Belmont and Lipscomb, but we also do have more flexibility in who we schedule.

We are just a really puzzling team when it comes down to it and hopefully they use their own metric to put us on the right side of the bubble. Our BPI, Sagarin, Kenpom, NET, and the Massey composite all have us as a top 33 team so it's not just some anomaly.

3/17/2019 5:15:06 PM

rwoody
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^^They were picked 8th of 11 in the big south

^that's Joe Giglio's spreadsheet, fyi

[Edited on March 17, 2019 at 5:27 PM. Reason : F]

3/17/2019 5:15:47 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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I’d be happy with the 2 seed in the NIT

3/17/2019 5:26:32 PM

TreeTwista10
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3 ACC teams in the first region

3/17/2019 6:06:28 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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It ain’t happening

3/17/2019 6:10:51 PM

alfredough
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Belmont over us

3/17/2019 6:11:57 PM

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