you don't think it's creepier?

10/10/2018 12:21:43 PM

The accusations are different, but I find the willingness to believe the accusers in one scenario and not in the other somewhat questionable.

However, your synopsis on the last page seemed to imply that the GOP reasoning is that Kavanaugh was just a kid, so his behavior is excusable.

It seemed to me like there was less willingness to believe the accusers in Kavanaugh's case.

[Edited on October 10, 2018 at 12:55 PM. Reason : ]

10/10/2018 12:50:33 PM

they also didn't want to believe roy moore's accusers, many still don't, the allegations were just too creepy for people to take a stand

10/10/2018 1:12:01 PM

For whatever reason, though, the allegations against Roy Moore didn't appear to rally the base the same way that the allegations against Brett Kavanaugh did.

If my memory serves me correctly, Moore and Kavanaugh both generally had similar favorability ratings; Alabama is about as red as states come.

[Edited on October 10, 2018 at 1:27 PM. Reason : ]

10/10/2018 1:19:30 PM

because what roy moore did is way creepier

10/10/2018 2:33:48 PM

Republicans seemed to be more fired up over Julie Swetnick's allegations regarding Brett Kavanaugh than any of the other allegations against him, and her allegations were arguably the creepiest.

As an aside, take Susan Collins's argument that she believed that the victim had been assaulted, just that the victim had not been assaulted by Brett Kavanaugh; a similar argument could have been made for Roy Moore, despite the creepier nature of his assault.

10/10/2018 2:56:19 PM

i'm not sure what's confusing about this so i'm not sure how to explain it to you

10/10/2018 3:02:27 PM

Roy Moore showed up on a horse to fuck our daughters.

And black people went to the polls and told him to GTFO.

The GOP should be ashamed they even put them in that position. I mean, I know it was a political victory for them, but can you imagine? In 2017, having to to go to the polls to be like, "Yeah, so we'll take a pass on the old white guy who campaigns on a horse with a sidearm and trolls the mall for underage girls."

Literally, a horse and a gun...like campaigning for who can best embody the spirit of a plantation overseer.

10/10/2018 3:08:53 PM

I guess I'm just confused over whether the reason for supporting Brett Kavanaugh was because Republicans didn't believe the accusations against him or if they believed the accusations but just didn't feel that they were significant enough to invalidate his seat on the Supreme Court.

If they believed that he attempted to rape a 15 year old when he was 17 and just don't care, then I guess that it would make sense to support him.

However, a common argument I hear is that they don't believe that he actually attempted to rape the 15 year old; it just seems like they could have made the same argument for Roy Moore.

The only reason that I'm questioning it in this thread is because red states have gotten fired up over Brett Kavanaugh in a way that they didn't for Roy Moore in Alabama.

Also, I agree that Roy Moore's allegations were creepier; however, I'm weighing that against the fact that a lifetime Supreme Court seat (among 9) is significantly more significant than a potential six year + Senate seat (among 100).

10/10/2018 3:19:46 PM

Quote :

"Brett Kavanaugh was because Republicans didn't believe the accusations against him or if they believed the accusations but just didn't feel that they were significant enough to invalidate his seat on the Supreme Court. "

both plus own the libs

Quote :

"However, a common argument I hear is that they don't believe that he actually attempted to rape the 15 year old; it just seems like they could have made the same argument for Roy Moore."

you think a drunk teenager being way too aggressive in an era when date rape wasn't even part of the public consciousness is the same as a creepy adult trying to pick up teenage girls? one is way creepier.

also, the roy moore story had much more investigation and corroboration because the media had a lot of time with it and access to the accusers



[Edited on October 10, 2018 at 3:32 PM. Reason : .]

10/10/2018 3:22:31 PM

That's a fair point regarding the additional corroboration; I had forgotten that Roy Moore's accuser had informed others of the incident around the time that it had occurred.

However, does the act itself being creepier make it more likely to believe that the act occurred or just more difficult to express the disbelief that the act occurred?

Again, I don't think that the two types of assault are the same, but I feel that Kavanaugh's one vote out of nine has a degree of significance that Roy Moore's one vote out of one hundred may not have had.

10/10/2018 3:41:01 PM

are you under the impression that there is a single reason, or that republicans act as a singular bloc?

and yes, it being creepier makes it harder to defend

and kavanaugh's role being more significant is more of a reason they would rally behind him, not less. replacing him at that stage was still possible but would have been difficult and probably would have dragged into needing a lame duck congress to vote on the replacement which isn't good optics. it also would have been a loss for republicans and for trump since the democrats "won" and you can't let that happen. Roy Moore wasn't a huge loss nationally, but he still also had a large amount of support all the way to the end despite that, it's not like everyone abandoned him he was just gross enough that black women said no thanks.



[Edited on October 10, 2018 at 3:48 PM. Reason : .]

[Edited on October 10, 2018 at 3:49 PM. Reason : .]

10/10/2018 3:42:42 PM

Solid points. I think, in hashing it out, I've somewhat realized my error in attempting to oversimplify the case at hand.

I was viewing the similarities between the two: both judges, both similarly unpopular, both accused of assault, both allegedly committed the assaults decades ago, both requiring the support of the Republican base in red states, etc.

However, I was ignoring the differences between the two: different types of assault, different degrees of corroborating evidence, special election vs mid-term election, Supreme court in the balance vs Senate less in the balance, etc.

To your last point and Bridget's earlier point, I suppose that an additional difference is that Roy Moore did more to piss off the Democratic base in Alabama than Brett Kavanaugh did to piss off the Democratic base in Arizona and Tennessee.

10/10/2018 3:56:22 PM

The difference is Roy Moore had an opponent, someone else to vote for. If the senate Dems hadn't been saying absolutely not since before the accusations came out (which granted was more than fair given what happened to Garland), then after the accusations they could have said "give us someone else conservative to vote for, just not someone who may be a rapist and a violent drunk"

10/10/2018 8:50:00 PM

I’ll admit it’s pretty dispiriting to see the GOP polling numbers improve this close to the election based on the disgusting and overwhelming lies they spew every day led by an abhorrent sociopathic malignant liar.

10/19/2018 8:55:43 AM

lol, you think any of that matters to republicans? they don't care about truth or accountability, they just want power for their culture war and republicans have done a great job gaining power

10/19/2018 9:18:48 AM

If this “caravan of illegals” full of ISIS terrorists narrative catches fire and becomes effective.......I’m probably just gonna blow my brains out.

10/22/2018 3:07:37 PM

While it’s entirely selfish, I’m starting to think of NYC as it’s own country and I look at the issues happening else where in the US the same way as I do shit happening in Brazil or Italy.

This caravan narrative is insanity.

10/22/2018 3:13:22 PM

Agreed. The whole "state vs fed" is gonna really ratchet up with "city vs state vs fed" in the coming years.

10/23/2018 9:34:21 AM

We already have city vs state vs fed on numerous issues including immigration

10/23/2018 10:50:24 AM

Just another GOP platform that was a massive lie "small government"

10/23/2018 10:51:30 AM

Quote :

"We already have city vs state vs fed on numerous issues including immigration"

I'm talking about even more severe than that. Perhaps even a rise of city-states.

10/24/2018 12:06:22 PM

Quote :

" If this "caravan full of illegals” full of ISIS terrorists narrative catches fire and becomes effective.......I’m probably just gonna blow my brains out."

I'm probably just going to get a bunch of face tattoos and head over to my local MS-13 office and join ranks

10/24/2018 12:17:40 PM

I don't see how the caravan would be something the Dems cook up to help them in this election. If its some conspiracy it would be more beneficial to the GOP.

"LOOK AT ALL THE DIRTY FOREIGNERS COMING TO TAKE YOUR BENEFITS AND YOUR JOBS. WE TOLD YOU. GO VOTE. BUILD THAT WALL."

10/25/2018 10:28:48 AM

The caravan thing is a made up issue mostly.

The caravan has almost nothing to do with US border policy or immigration policy. We share a land mass with other people and countries and it’s sensible policy to make sure these countries are thriving.

It should be unquestionable that if someone walks thousands of miles to get here they should be treated fairly and humanely.

10/25/2018 10:35:33 AM

Predictions? My thoughts:

Senate becomes 50/50 (including the independents who vote left) or at the very least the GOP lead shrinks to 51/49...which either way doesn't change the balance of power from what it is now since Pence breaks the ties.

Dems take the house but not with a large majority...somewhere around a 20-seat advantage (compared to the 59 seat advantage the GOP had in the 2016 vote)

10/25/2018 1:41:18 PM

The midterms are already hacked. You just don’t know it yet.

https://www.vox.com/2018/10/25/18001684/2018-midterms-hacked-russia-election-security-voting

10/25/2018 1:52:54 PM

That article is terrifying.

It makes me want to run for Congress on the sole platform of introducing a bill that requires all precincts to use paper ballots and manual counters.

10/25/2018 2:05:49 PM

democrats have been trying to do that for at least a decade now

10/25/2018 2:14:54 PM

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/10/23/georgia-naacp-filed-complaint-voting-errors-some-counties/1741406002/

Quote :

"The Georgia NAACP filed complaints Tuesday with state election officials alleging that some voting machines mistakenly showed votes cast for Democrat Stacey Abrams registering for her opponent Republican Brian Kemp... Grimes said she went to a polling site in Bartow County Thursday and tried to select Abrams, but the machine marked the box for Kemp. Grimes said she tried several times to clear the selection before it allowed her to vote for Abrams... Dexter Benning, a Democratic board member for the Bartow Board of Elections and Voter Registration, said he raised the concern with an election supervisor who told him because of older machines there may be a problem with calibration. Benning, who also voted on that same machine, said he had to touch the screen twice to make sure the correct candidate was selected..."

10/25/2018 3:34:40 PM

[Edited on October 25, 2018 at 3:50 PM. Reason : .]

10/25/2018 3:48:54 PM

I've seen similar reports just over in Greensboro.

10/25/2018 3:50:58 PM

https://thehill.com/policy/technology/413320-voters-report-texas-voting-machines-changing-straight-party-selections

Quote :

"Local news affiliate ABC 13 reports that voters in several districts have said that when they select a button that allows voters to select all members of one party at once, it has, in some cases, chosen the opposite candidate or no candidate at all specifically in the Senate race. The problem reportedly exists for both Democratic and Republican voters, with some Democrats reporting machines erroneously selecting Sen. Ted Cruz (R) as their candidate of choice while Republicans attempting to vote for Cruz have reported the machines dropping their votes and selecting no candidate at all."

10/26/2018 1:18:08 PM

Still a huge long shot for Senate but I’m liking some recent Senate polling (Sinema +6 in recent NBC AZ pool) and Trump approval/generic ballot trends.

Feeling good about House right now but we’ll see.

10/30/2018 10:35:24 AM

538 gives Dems about 8% higher chance than they gave Hilary at this time. Of course she was plummeting bc of emails. So, hope fbi director doesn't hold a press conference about House candidates and should be ok.

Slightly higher chance to win the house than Reps have to keep the Senate. They rate Arizona "lean D", but ND is lean R and Mo and Nev are tossups. Need all 4 of those, really. Plus Bill Nelson needs to hold on in Florida.

10/30/2018 11:17:28 AM

Y'all just wait til Trump declares the results of the midterm elections (not on his side) invalid.

10/30/2018 1:10:10 PM

^
This.

10/30/2018 1:13:44 PM

Not sure it matters for midterm elections but Trump couldn’t have asked for a better election month jobs report.

Full employment type wage growth and unemployment numbers but still robust payroll growth.

11/2/2018 8:33:45 AM

^The market is tanking and major companies are falling apart because of this trade war. If people are smart they will see through those numbers and know it's not a full picture. Unfortunately most people are not smart.

EDIT: A *few* good days on the market this week, but the month of October as a whole was horrendous.

[Edited on November 2, 2018 at 6:10 PM. Reason : -]

11/2/2018 6:09:40 PM

Quote :

"Not sure it matters for midterm elections but Trump couldn’t have asked for a better election month jobs report. "

It matters to some, but he's not running on that

11/3/2018 6:06:35 PM

Whites without a college degree vs the rest of the country

11/4/2018 9:31:31 AM

6% of democratic voters don't want a Democrat controlled Congress?

11/4/2018 9:35:15 AM

The thing to keep in mind is that the national polling has been remarkably consistent since the GOP tried to kill Obamacare in the dead of night. I just don't think a distant crowd of starving women and children or feels for this guy is gonna change anything in the last few days.

11/4/2018 10:03:41 AM

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/04/politics/georgia-voter-registration-hacking-attempt-investigation/index.html

the worst people

11/4/2018 2:32:34 PM

Disgusting

11/4/2018 5:54:56 PM

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/timeline-how-kemp-turned-dem-cyber-warnings-into-claims-of-a-dem-hack

11/5/2018 5:00:06 PM

hope the dems win the house so less bills gets signed. almost every time they make the problems worse

11/5/2018 6:25:26 PM

At first we started out real cool
Taking me places I ain't never been
But now, you're getting comfortable
Ain't doing those things you did no more
You're slowly making me pay for
Things your money should be handling
And now you ask to use my car
Drive it all day and don't fill up the tank
And you have the audacity to even come and step to me
Ask to hold some money from me until
You get your check next week
You trifling
(Good for nothing type of brother)
Silly me
(Why haven't I found another)
(A baller), when times get hard need someone to help me out
(Instead of) a scrub like you who don't know what a man's about
Can you pay my bills
Can you pay my telephone bills
Can you pay my automo-bills
If you did then maybe we could chill
I don't think you do
So, you and me are through
Can you pay my bills
Can you pay my telephone bills
Can you pay my automo-bills
If you did then maybe we could chill
I don't think you do
So, you and me are through
Now you've been maxing out my cards
Giving me bad credit buying me gifts with my
Own ends
Haven't paid the first bill
But you're steady heading to the mall
Going on shopping sprees perpetrating to your friends that you be balling
And then you use my cell phone
Calling whoever that you think at home
And then when the bill comes all of a sudden you be acting dumb
Don't know where none of these calls come from
When your mama's number's here more than once
Can you pay my bills
Can you pay my telephone bills
Can you pay my automo-bills
If you did then maybe we could chill
I don't think you do
So, you and me are through
Can you pay my bills
Can you pay my telephone bills
Can you pay my automo-bills
If you did then maybe we could chill
I don't think you do
So, you and me are through
Can you pay my bills
Can you pay my telephone bills
Can you pay my automo-bills
If you did then maybe we could chill
I don't think you do
So, you and me are through
Can you pay my bills
Can you pay my telephone bills
Can you pay my automo-bills
If you did then maybe we could chill
I don't think you do
So, you and me are through

11/5/2018 8:49:14 PM

My fingernails are nubs already. Mostly for some of my local candidates.

11/6/2018 7:09:59 AM

can't wait to find out if we're kinda fucked or extremely fucked

11/6/2018 11:00:55 AM