< 5% margin = tossup
5%-10% = leaning
10%-15% = likely
> 15% = safe



[Edited on June 29, 2020 at 1:29 PM. Reason : -]

6/29/2020 1:28:24 PM

I still have PTSD and won't be able to accept anything until this election is called. I basically don't even want to assume any winning outcomes, so I won't be bedridden the day after, such as I was in 2016.

6/29/2020 1:48:46 PM

I'm just assuming Trump's going to win....

6/29/2020 2:38:25 PM

Here are the final polls of 2016 before election day, using the 5/10/15 coloring (National popular vote poll was Clinton 47%, Trump 44%)



And here were the final results, using the 5/10/15 coloring (popular vote Clinton 48%, Trump 46%)



Other than Michigan and Wisconsin, the polls were pretty much right. That's 16 electoral votes out of 538. That isn't enough reason not to trust their accuracy, as long as we understand that it is a snapshot in time and nothing more. (What was wrong were TV analysts showing states within the margin of error as in one camp or the other)

[Edited on June 29, 2020 at 8:39 PM. Reason : -]

6/29/2020 8:37:48 PM

Biden sounds way, way more literate and coherent at this press conference than I’ve heard Trump sound since like 2013. Night and day.

Also, he was asked about cognitive decline and essentially turned it right around and said either Trump forgets things he is told in briefings, can’t read or isn’t sharp enough to understand important information.

6/30/2020 1:49:15 PM

how does protest or virus anger help/hurt each of them? shouldnt trump be running ads they say biden is gonna give them whatever they want (or some shit)?

hes like completely defeated after his shit rally lol.

6/30/2020 2:47:01 PM

Biden is extremely not online so he just essentially ignores the online MAGA and the online left. And I think normal people like him for it.

Like he was asked a question about statues and he specifically said he’d protect Columbus ones and I raged for like half a second and then realized he is too offline to take the culture war bait.

6/30/2020 3:19:15 PM

The protest and virus anger are devastating for Trump. Without COVID or George Floyd, Trump was on his way to an easy win. He could have finessed both of them into wins for himself but he fumbled.
Now, theres a very small chance he will win. That small chance is only because there are 4 months left for him to turn it around, win the fight to substantially suppress the vote, or get lucky if the inevitable Biden implosion occurs before November.


[Edited on June 30, 2020 at 4:09 PM. Reason : this election is like that one vt nc state game where both teams shit the bed but it was still a blo]

6/30/2020 4:07:21 PM

I don't know what that small chance is for a Trump win. Granted, I never entertained the possibility of Trump winning in 2016 until election night when he was winning Florida.

The only silver lining for Trump is the 6% of Americans that did not vote for Trump or Clinton in 2016. The McMullin vote has to go somewhere because there's no McMullin-type candidate this year, it's probably mostly to Trump as conservative never-Trumpism has largely died. The Libertarians and Greens' votes are going to go down everyone acknowledges. Greens will be more to the Democrats and the Libertarians will be a net plus for Trump although that's up to debate. Democratic and Republican state governments are also fighting something like 60 ballot access lawsuits where they are giving no petitioning relief due to Covid and you're not really supposed to be out collecting signatures for minor parties and individuals. There were a half-million write-in votes that were not officially assigned to anyone, mostly protest votes, although Sanders was about a quarter of them it's assumed. So that I guess is all a small positive to Trump due to Libertarians are more R than D, being the largest group of all these, and the McMullin vote being completely conservative. But throw on top of all that Trump has to keep almost all of the votes of the people that voted for him in 2016. When you compare the performance of Sanders 2016 vs. Sanders 2020 in the Democratic primary once it became Biden vs. Sanders, you have to conclude a significant number of his votes were anti-Hillary votes, and Biden will likewise in the general get some Trump 2016 voters because those voters were anti-Hillary.

[Edited on July 1, 2020 at 11:43 AM. Reason : /]

7/1/2020 11:42:09 AM

Quote :

"Biden is extremely not online "

We as a society would be extremely way better for it if everyone was that way, or at least didn't pay attention to random things on Twitter.

7/1/2020 11:48:56 AM

In a sane world POTUS would see the jobs report and immediately demand more fiscal stimulus and direct payments to Americans. He would demand the Senate majority leader act.

But we don’t live there and this will be seen as evidence we don’t need

https://twitter.com/jstein_wapo/status/1278681004618768384?s=21

Lol, worst political instincts of all time



[Edited on July 2, 2020 at 9:38 AM. Reason : Or course]

7/2/2020 9:35:57 AM

Quote :

"Without COVID or George Floyd, Trump was on his way to an easy win."

I don't doubt he could have won, but it would have been just as close as 2016 (where 1% fo the vote in three states made the difference)

Quote :

"I never entertained the possibility of Trump winning in 2016 until election night when he was winning Florida."

I figured he was going to win Florida. Even then before it was official, he was already the hometown hero. He's down by at least 5 points in every Florida poll now, but I still think he'll win it this time.

7/2/2020 11:28:28 AM

http://ballot-access.org/2020/07/06/fourth-circuit-upholds-north-carolina-march-3-petition-deadline-for-independent-candidates/

Quote :

"On July 6, the Fourth Circuit issued an opinion in Buscemi v Bell, 19-2355, a North Carolina ballot access case. The Fourth Circuit said the March 3 petition deadline for independent candidates, even presidential candidates, is constitutional. This completely contradicts the U.S. Supreme Court opinion Anderson v Celebrezze, 460 U.S. 780, which struck down Ohio’s independent presidential petition deadline of March 20. Furthermore in the Ohio case, only 5,000 signatures were required; but in North Carolina in 2020, independent candidates need 70,666 signatures. The decision does not mention Anderson v Celebrezze’s holding. Nor does it mention Anderson v Morris, 636 F.2d 55 (1980), in which the Fourth Circuit invalidated the Maryland independent petition deadline, which by coincidence was also March 3. The Fourth Circuit says it is constitutional to put the independent candidate deadline on the date of the primary, or the day before. That may be true for independent candidates for non-presidential office, but it is not true for presidential independent candidates. If that were true, it would be constitutional for New Hampshire to have an independent presidential petition deadline as early as February. The decision also upholds the number of signatures, even though it is a number six times as high as the number of signatures for a new party. In 2004 a U.S. District Court in North Carolina ruled that it is unconstitutional for a state to require more signatures for a statewide independent candidate than for a new party. DeLaney v Bartlett, 370 F.Supp.373 (m.d.). The new Fourth Circuit opinion does not mention DeLaney v Bartlett. The decision also does not mention a 1980 decision of the eastern district of North Carolina, Greaves v State Board of Elections, 508 F.Supp.78, which struck down the April 25 deadline for independent candidates for all office. Nor does the decision mention the U.S. Supreme Court opinion Mandel v Bradley, 432 U.S. 173, which said that early non-presidential independent deadlines are unconstitutional if the historical record shows that few independent candidates ever qualify. In the entire history of North Carolina government-printed ballots, only once has any independent statewide candidate ever qualified. The decision is by Judge Barbara Keenan, an Obama appointee; and signed by Judge Diana Gribbon Motz, a Clinton appointee; and Pamela Harris, an Obama appointee."

7/6/2020 10:54:30 AM

Trumps campaign cornerstone in 2016 was awfully racist but not explicitly solely racist.

2020 is legitimately “ill protect you from scary blacks.”

7/6/2020 11:21:51 AM

I know right. Its disgusting. Heres some of the transcript:

Quote :

"“We have predators on our streets that society has in fact, in part because of its neglect, created…they are beyond the pale many of those people, beyond the pale. And it's a sad commentary on society. We have no choice but to take them out of society….a cadre of young people, tens of thousands of them, born out of wedlock, without parents, without supervision, without any structure, without any conscience developing because they literally … because they literally have not been socialized, they literally have not had an opportunity….we should focus on them now….if we don't, they will, or a portion of them, will become the predators 15 years from now.”"

Quote :

"“The consensus is A), we must take back the streets. It doesn't matter whether or not the person that is accosting your son or daughter or my son or daughter, my wife, your husband, my mother, your parents, it doesn't matter whether or not they were deprived as a youth. It doesn't matter whether or not they had no background that enabled them to become socialized into the fabric of society. It doesn't matter whether or not they're the victims of society. The end result is they're about to knock my mother on the head with a lead pipe, shoot my sister, beat up my wife, take on my sons.”"

Quote :

"“I don't care why someone is a malefactor in society. I don't care why someone is antisocial. I don't care why they've become a sociopath. We have an obligation to cordon them off from the rest of society.”"

7/6/2020 11:32:52 AM

^^ He'll keep doubling down on it. It worked in 2016 and it's the only thing Trump knows.

7/6/2020 11:43:13 AM

^^ guessing those are Biden. Probably from the 90s. Maybe earlier. Maybe more recent.

Fuck off. I don’t care. If that’s his platform today I’d care. Keep defending your guy, though.

^ but honestly it wasn’t this explicit and he was an “outsider” so people could and did [wrongly] project their views onto him. Now he’s just purposefully inflaming racial tensions. Different vibe to me.

[Edited on July 6, 2020 at 12:18 PM. Reason : X]

7/6/2020 12:16:53 PM

^ did tweeting the video of the supporter shouting "white power" give it away...?

7/6/2020 1:25:09 PM

^^ I read like 8 words and decided it wasn't the deranged fat fuck in question.

7/6/2020 1:28:44 PM

Damn, you're right. I keep getting old, senile, racist presidential candidates mixed up!

"way back in the 90s" Reminds me of when people say founders didn't know slavery was bad at the time. Who could've known dog whistles about violent black people was bad way back in 1994? It was over 25 years ago! Now though, we know its wrong.

The funny thing about "25 years ago" is that in 25 years, today will be "25 years ago" and people will be making the same kind of excuses. Its not that long ago. It was after Rodney King.

7/6/2020 1:47:17 PM

I’m sorry this is happening to you.

7/6/2020 2:29:35 PM

Quote :

"8 percent of Biden supporters told us they would be too uncomfortable to vote in-person in the Times/Siena poll, compared to just 2 percent of Trump supporters https://t.co/DSxX0eLcrN Using standard methods, the Times/Siena polls would find only a slight LV/RV gap in Trump's favor. And all six battlegrounds have mail absentee voting. But if those folks didn't vote, Biden's lead would narrow by 3 points"

7/6/2020 3:51:16 PM

I can see that. And I truly do fear the worst this time around.

2020 hasn’t exactly been a year delivering positivity.

7/6/2020 3:54:34 PM

Yea all we can do is get out the vote....for Dems anyway, for Rep family/friends/acquaintances, all we can do is convince them that Trump said voting a liberal/leftist conspiracy to get your political preferences on file for the antifa purges. They won't check the sources so should be easy.

7/6/2020 3:59:35 PM

Like anyone online checks sources.

7/7/2020 8:02:27 AM

The right leaning people on my Facebook has broken into 2 camps: anti-trump Republicans, and Qanon supporters

There’s low-information Berniebros dabbling in qanon fringes too— apparently the great awakening is supposed to be about everyone loving and caring about each other... post 2020 is going to be weird.

7/9/2020 9:41:26 PM

^ The funny to me is this grand coalition that's working to elect Biden are going to disintegrate the day after the election.

7/9/2020 10:52:02 PM

I dunno maybe they will form an orange man bad party and keep this thing rolling.

7/9/2020 10:55:29 PM

Quote :

"There’s low-information Berniebros dabbling in qanon fringes too"

screenshots

7/9/2020 11:22:11 PM

I mean i guess I would want screenshots too...but it is not that far a stretch to believe anyways

7/9/2020 11:59:48 PM

^^^ fuck yes. There it is. Orange man bad!

^^ yeah, I haven’t seen anything close to this. Bernie supporters are polling in record numbers for Biden. Like apples and oranges compared to Clinton 2008 for example and I’ve seen almost no QAnon type nonsense at all.

7/10/2020 6:42:46 AM

Quote :

""way back in the 90s" Reminds me of when people say founders didn't know slavery was bad at the time. Who could've known dog whistles about violent black people was bad way back in 1994? It was over 25 years ago! Now though, we know its wrong."

There's a discussion to be had about to what extent a person is a product of their age and how much they can and should be held responsible for that, but that's not really at the core of why I don't care about some Biden quotes that haven't aged great.

Twenty-five years is a long time, and I would be deeply suspicious of the candidate whose views had not evolved over such a period. Thought that don't change over a quarter century are more likely signs of mental stasis than moral clairvoyance.

These lifetime ideological purity tests are futile and counterproductive.

7/10/2020 9:07:08 AM

I agree that 25 years is a long time. A stark example is the passing of the Civil Rights Act only 20 years prior to many of us being born.

7/10/2020 9:43:02 AM

^^^^
https://twitter.com/oneunderscore__/status/1281616606012092419?s=21

This was all over twitter today, with non-conservatives

Looks like some malicious person(s) took missing persons and made products out of them. Never mind that several of the missing people were found hours after the initial reports.

7/10/2020 4:44:58 PM

this was all over twitter with everyone and has nothing to do with bernie supporters in particular

7/10/2020 7:28:49 PM

What is even happening in this thread?

QAnon and Bernie overlap is.. well non-existent.

Are there Bernie supporters who may not vote Biden? Yeah, an extreme minority but this is normal and consistent with history. But there is literally nothing at all to show that this is out of anything but principle. Certainly not out of any insane conspiracy.

7/10/2020 11:21:05 PM

This week was nuts on my feed because libertarians INVADED the Bernie Sanders meme repository. It definitely felt like there were more pro-JO posts than posts bashing ancaps but every thread consisted of a libertarian OP trying to appeal to Bernie bros and getting shit on for child porn, bootlicking, or general indifference to poverty. They thought they could come in and sweep us off our feet over a few issues but its ended in a nuclear memes race



I like this because most people don't know where the 3rd parties are or just how far apart greens are from everyone else.

7/11/2020 12:38:35 AM

I never knew how happy I’d find myself being after seeing a visual representation of just how fucking stupid Greens and Libertarians are. Thanks!

7/11/2020 5:25:56 AM

I'm glad you're admitting that your perception of stupidity is derived by [distance from you on the political compass].

7/12/2020 11:01:51 AM

NOT CREDIBLE

7/12/2020 11:09:30 AM

The 4-square political compass is itself a Libertarian ploy to make them seem like a good alternative to the two parties (they are not).

7/12/2020 3:21:31 PM

Libertarians= anti-vaxers, non-mask wearers

Greens= violent protestors

Any questions?

7/12/2020 3:34:33 PM

I'd be totally fine with Democratic Socialists and the Tea Party (Trumpsters) each having their own separate parties, then we'll find out how people REALLY feel.

7/12/2020 3:43:00 PM

Trumpsters do have their own party, the Republican

If the left split from the Dems in any real way, the trumpsters would rule essentially unopposed

7/12/2020 9:13:40 PM

Nope. Turnout would increase if there were more options advertised and keep in mind only 14 million people voted for Trump in the primaries. The other 49 million were mostly people voting against Hillary. Democrats only seem to understand one side of the "vote for the lesser evil" coin.

[Edited on July 13, 2020 at 1:26 AM. Reason : thats why we fight the media before we can even fight the democrats before we can even fight the gop]

7/13/2020 1:25:30 AM

Quote :

" Turnout would increase if there were more options advertised and keep in mind only 14 million people voted for Trump in the primaries. The other 49 million were mostly people voting against Hillary."

This sort of insanity isn’t worth any real reply.

7/13/2020 6:19:54 AM

Quote :

" Turnout would increase if there were more options advertised"

Either Trump or Biden will win. Those are the choices. I know I do not want 4 more years of idiot Trump

7/13/2020 6:51:53 AM

I've seen rumblings on Twitter that the Republicans are going to implode. Most of what Republicans have done for last few decades is give way to the left over culture war issues to get their tax breaks. The religious Republican base isn't happy. Could be an opportunity of a new awakening.

As a result that core could break into a new party or overthrow the current leadership over the next cycle.

7/13/2020 8:51:47 AM

Quote :

"Either Trump or Biden will win."

I can only think of two reasons why someone would make such an obvious statement.

1. To suppress people into blindly supporting the status quo (the same exact scenario that produced trump)
2. To justify their support for the status quo (do what you're supposed to do)

Then, of course, you have NYM, pleading against reasoning. 'Any argument on behalf of the status quo does not warrant reasoning'. This is the sort of groupthink and self-suppression of free thought you read about in dystopian novels and totalitarian states.

[Edited on July 13, 2020 at 9:12 AM. Reason : k]

7/13/2020 9:11:24 AM

You made a statement with zero verifiable accuracy. Literally pulled a number out of thin air or randomly pulled from another unverifiable source.

I’m not disagreeing that more people voted against Clinton than will vote against Biden. That’s why Biden has been polling well against Trump for the better part of 18-24 months.

7/13/2020 11:34:56 AM