Mi only has any blue because of unions but these union workers are just as low information as gop hillbillies anywhere else

Wi is just like N.C. in the fact their cities and college towns are blue but everywhere else is red.

One of the reasons Bernie would have won is because he speaks union worker. Those guys don’t care about culture war issues that privileged people have the time to worry about.

4/28/2020 3:41:27 PM

Quote :

"Network President : ...and Executive Gamma, who is programmed to underestimate Middle America. Executive Gamma : It's funny, but is it going to get them off their tractors?"

4/28/2020 3:59:35 PM

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/pa/pennsylvania_trump_vs_biden-6861.html

Not sure where the “not polling well in PA” is coming from?

Look, we know Biden is not a great candidate. We can all admit that while admitting, as of now, he’s moved in to the favorite position. The real Trump Derangement Syndrome is thinking he’s some “midwestern whisperer” because he eked out an election by a few thousand votes against a vastly more unpopular candidate than Biden and with the help of a brazen FBI Director making absolutely unprecedented announcements.

Quote :

" One of the reasons Bernie would have won is because he speaks union worker."

This is conventional thought and frankly I thought it too but when it came to winning those votes... well...

[Edited on April 28, 2020 at 5:02 PM. Reason : C]

4/28/2020 5:01:27 PM

^ I don't think it was the FBI Director. Always felt that was overblown. Your opinion of Hillary Clinton was the same the day before that as it was the day after. It's more Hillary Clinton was an absolutely horrible candidate and a large segment of the country on the left, the right, and the neither hated her from her time in the public spotlight the preceding 24 years.

As far as the "angry white working class", Democrats I feel don't really understand how dead they are in non-urban areas (and as far as union voters, the national Democrats sold out labor long ago). They might as well be Republicans trying to sell themselves to black voters. I know the stuff with Chinese tariffs really pissed off a ton of Indiana farmers (granted this is a richer non-urban clientele than you'd normally see) because the Chinese pork industry bought a ton of U.S. soybeans and as part of the feedback for that, suddenly they were no longer buying U.S. soybeans. That's where Trump's rescue package at the time came from. These farmers met Pence when he was at a thing here and put in no uncertain terms how pissed off they were. The notion of these guys voting for Democrats? Never happen. There are maybe 6 counties out of 92 in the state where the Democrats are the majority, and you can throw in another 5 to 10 where they are competitive. That's it. The other 80 or so counties, it's single-party government, and it's not changing anytime soon. If I was in D.C. or New York City, it'd be the exact same thing, just the parties are flipped. For them to do the best in these places takes a more moderate person, which pisses off the people that vote in Democratic primaries and write on message boards. A Sanders campaign worker ran in my district for Congress in 2018. She raised more money than ever before for the office, ran a lot of campaign ads. The left were so happy with her. Did only a little better than the homeless Trump-supporting candidate the Democrats ran in 2016 that they disavowed after he unexpectedly won the primary to their disapproval.

I'm going to be throwing my support into a new centrist party that's been forming up and maybe running as an independent for county office where I don't have to compete with the single-ticket device, and my argument while stating my policies are going to be "the Democrats are a dead political party here, they will never win, they have not won office here in x many years (I'll find out the real number), and if you want to have any kind of competition to keep the majority Republicans locally honest, you have to vote for something outside the establishment because the local Democrats have demonstrated for years now they are a complete failure". You can't even argue there's a wasted vote phenomenon when the other major option has demonstrated for years they are incapable of winning or even running candidates most of the time. Goal would be to displace the Democrats for 2nd-party status locally. God knows our country needs that to happen for both of the major parties in a lot of places. Otherwise we become the South of the first half of the 20th century where everyone knows years out the only election that matters is the primary.

[Edited on April 29, 2020 at 9:07 AM. Reason : /]

4/29/2020 8:47:45 AM

^The FBI's announcement regarding Clinton wasn't the only factor in the 2016 election but I don't think you can deny it was a significant factor. And when you say, "Your opinion of Hillary Clinton was the same the day before that as it was the day after", who are you referring to? If you're referring to NyM410, you may be right. If that's a general you, however, there are demonstrably plenty of counterexamples:

Quote :

"Clinton’s standing in the polls fell sharply. She’d led Trump by 5.9 percentage points in FiveThirtyEight’s popular vote projection at 12:01 a.m. on Oct. 28. A week later — after polls had time to fully reflect the letter — her lead had declined to 2.9 percentage points. That is to say, there was a shift of about 3 percentage points against Clinton. "

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-comey-letter-probably-cost-clinton-the-election/


That's a rather large shift to simply dismiss as "overblown".

4/29/2020 10:29:31 AM

Quote :

" NPR/PBS/Marist poll: *Biden up 55-40 v Trump on who voters prefer to handle pandemic *Biden up 51-44 on economy *Voters 64-32 say their gov doing better job than Trump on pandemic *Trump disapproval on handling pandemic up 6 to 55; approval steady at 44 "

4/29/2020 10:31:24 AM

Quote :

"*Biden up 55-40 v Trump on who voters prefer to handle pandemic "

That feels like it's missing some words

4/29/2020 10:41:11 AM

Quote :

"NORTH CAROLINA WH'2020 poll (Meredith College): Biden 47 Trump 40 Trump 41 approve, 53 disapprove. Who do you trust to reopen state? Gov. Cooper 63 Trump 27"

5/1/2020 10:41:13 AM

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/09/us/politics/trump-older-voters-2020.html

Turns out pursuing a policy that lets a large amount of older people Die is bad politics

Quote :

" Trump campaign worries about softening support among seniors amid criticism of his handling of the pandemic. He won voters over 65 by 7 percentage points in 2016 but now trails Biden among that group by 10 points. @anniekarni @maggieNYT"

5/10/2020 1:53:57 PM

Wisconsin voter numbers are ominous for Biden.

The over 60 number is good, and he’s crushing the youth vote (who don’t vote...). But trump is crushing the upper middle aged Voters (gen x).

https://twitter.com/wisvoter/status/1260294053058379776?s=21

[Edited on May 12, 2020 at 4:02 PM. Reason : ]

5/12/2020 4:01:58 PM

Why is that poll ominous for Biden? Shows slight net disapproval

[Edited on May 12, 2020 at 4:09 PM. Reason : E]

5/12/2020 4:07:15 PM

Wisconsin is going to be tough for any Dem now. Always was. But that poll is actually decent for Biden. I’m confused. Everything I’ve read it is consistent with national polling of Biden +6ish.

Arizona is going to be reaalllyyy interesting this cycle.

5/12/2020 5:01:12 PM

RCP has Biden +3 in Wisconsin, +4.4 Arizona

5/14/2020 4:34:18 PM

surprise he's going to eke out just enough electoral votes by just a hair in just the exact configuration of states necessary to put him over the top while losing the popular vote by 8-10 million this time around

just enough votes were changed in 2016 in the right places, and its going to happen again.

or fuck it, maybe he'll just dispute the results and pull out his dick in the rose garden.

[Edited on May 14, 2020 at 10:26 PM. Reason : .]

5/14/2020 10:26:03 PM

I'd be down to watch a duel

5/14/2020 11:42:33 PM

I’m wondering if Obama’s national commencement speech at 8pm Saturday will move the needle at all

After 3yrs Of Americans not hearing Obama, to suddenly see an intelligent competent eloquent political leader speak might open some eyes maybe?

5/15/2020 12:50:27 AM

Too little too late

5/15/2020 1:26:30 AM

Quote :

"surprise he's going to eke out just enough electoral votes by just a hair in just the exact configuration of states necessary to put him over the top while losing the popular vote by 8-10 million this time around"

This is disaster worst-case scenario stuff. I’d rather trump win a landslide.

This would likely include a scenario where the Senate stays R despite getting far less aggregate votes over 3 cycles, 2 new conservative SCOTUS justices and a locked-in long-term countermajorian rule. It’s unsustainable and will lead to widespread civil unrule and eventually violence.

5/15/2020 7:12:34 AM

Quote :

"Wi is just like N.C. in the fact their cities and college towns are blue but everywhere else is red."

That is not North Carolina at all. You have this huge rural black vote that is solidly Democratic in N.C., which doesn't exist in Wisconsin.

[Edited on May 15, 2020 at 7:55 AM. Reason : /]

5/15/2020 7:54:52 AM

^^ I think Barr and Miller definitely want violence, I think Kushner and Trump dont care either way, and it's clear a lot of the Trump voting base is also okay with violence.

5/15/2020 10:50:26 AM

the Trump base has nothing left BUT violence

intellectual curiosity fails them and their "morals" are so intertwined into their fear of others (not to mention a fabricated persecution complex) that all they can do is lash out in their continual misdirected anger

5/15/2020 11:11:53 AM

Quote :

"It’s unsustainable and will lead to widespread civil unrule and eventually violence."

I think your outcome is plausible, though not for the reasons you put forward (or at least, not just for those reasons). Countermajorian rule is the historical norm in this country, and the only incident of widespread violence involved a clear minority of the population trying to secede.

Nor do I think either side particularly desires violence. Both sides have fringe elements who do, of course, and it's true that those on the right have been more visible and well-armed, but I suspect there's more than a few on the left who would welcome the opportunity to settle things for good. Witness the cottage industry of violent liberal sci-fi fantasies since 2016.

I believe that the problem which, left unresolved, could eventually make violence inevitable is the bifurcation of the populace into two distinct and incompatible realities. Not just "bubbles," not just CNN/MSNBC vs Fox, but a combination of factors that is more and worse than the sum of its parts. When two people inhabit completely different universes, they lack the common basis necessary for even simple discourse; and when two populations cannot communicate, they inevitably fight.

One facet of this was on display yesterday. CNN.com was wall-to-wall COVID coverage, mostly focused on the HHS whistleblower's testimony to congress. Foxnews.com had nothing but "Obamagate" and the testimony of someone about Flynn's "unmasking." COVID didn't come up until the bottom of the page, and even then there was nothing about the guy in Congress. Looking at these two pages, they didn't just have a different focus; they had no overlap whatsoever. Anybody looking at them without knowing better would assume they took place on completely different days. Having diverse points of view in media is important. This is something else. Hearst and Pulitzer hated each other, but both papers mentioned that the Maine blew up.

5/15/2020 1:26:47 PM

its too bad our local antifa leader got banned. he could explain how the left would easily win thanks to his groupon / meetup training sessions.

[Edited on May 16, 2020 at 11:04 AM. Reason : also this fantasy is retarded and has no bearing on anything]

5/16/2020 11:00:24 AM

It's an interesting take, in a time of widespread, armed, anti-government protests, to dismiss political violence as a retarded fantasy.

It remains an unlikely outcome, and "political violence" doesn't necessarily equal "civil war" or anything, but to rule it out entirely is naive.

5/18/2020 8:51:01 AM

50% to 39%
Biden to trump in recent qpac registered voters poll

Fairly abysmal numbers for an incumbent president, maybe the worst ever. I don’t really see his Obamagate antics catching on but if you assume the average swing voter is like joe Rogan, there may be some upside still for trump here.

https://twitter.com/stevekornacki/status/1263167838820458497?s=21

5/20/2020 2:26:39 PM

An outlier. Biden +6-8 is about where we are today.

Way ahead of Clinton aside from like a 2 week period. Trump is generally worse off polling when he is more visible which is a problem given his campaign can’t hide him like in 2016 when he’s POTUS.

Also, as anyone with a brain knew would happen without Clinton on the ticket, Biden is wiping the floor with Trump among those who dislike both.

[Edited on May 20, 2020 at 5:09 PM. Reason : Lol the average swing voter has no clue who Joe Rogan is]

5/20/2020 5:08:16 PM

^ they don’t have to know who Rogan is to think like him. I have lots of friends who don’t follow politics but who respond to information the same way as Rogan.

5/20/2020 6:40:27 PM

Show me the polling data where he's up by those same margin in the swing states that actually matter this time and I'll feel better, but I don't see Biden winning in FL/MI/WI/OH.

https://www.270towin.com

[Edited on May 20, 2020 at 8:16 PM. Reason : .]

5/20/2020 8:14:00 PM

Here’s a nightmare scenario where they both tie
?https://www.270towin.com/maps/B8eEo?

I think there’s a trumps-chance-in-2016 Biden will flip Texas too

[Edited on May 20, 2020 at 9:15 PM. Reason : ]

5/20/2020 9:12:41 PM

Quote :

"Also, as anyone with a brain knew would happen without Clinton on the ticket, Biden is wiping the floor with Trump among those who dislike both."

but thats not true though. Biden is only up big now because the economy is down big. You can't just compare this election to the last election and ignore the special context of 2020. No one knew COVID would happen if Clinton wasn't on the ticket. We are facing a possible depression right now. The economy will determine this election hands down.

5/20/2020 9:32:32 PM

https://i.redd.it/lga66p6pxfv41.png is the most fun scenario

5/20/2020 9:46:56 PM

Quote :

"I don't see Biden winning in FL/MI/WI/OH."

Ohio's Republican now, it's almost not worth contesting. Let those whining, Wright-brothers-claiming, Bill-of-Rights-stealing Fuckeyes be cast into the outer darkness.

As usual, it's all about Florida. For the moment, the numbers there seem to skew slightly in Biden's favor, and the GOP-controlled state government has fucked up a run of things lately. So I'm not confident, but I can see it happening. If Joe takes Pennsylvania and Florida, the other battlegrounds don't matter.

5/21/2020 8:34:22 AM

I think Texas is the sleeper state this election. I have a feeling they'll flip to Biden

5/21/2020 11:00:17 AM

Based on what data/evidence?

I have a feeling that MI/WI are both going Trump based on all the protests/chaos taking place.





[Edited on May 21, 2020 at 11:38 AM. Reason : Did I sleep through the election where Beto beat Cruz? ]

5/21/2020 11:37:39 AM

^texas is becoming purple but that's a pretty ambitious goal.

any polling to support that?

5/21/2020 11:37:44 AM

WI is a straight toss up and I’m not confident about it. Far more confident about AZ, as I’ve said.

MI angst is back to that old fallacy that Trump is the “rust belt whisperer” because he eked out a win by a few thousand votes against an objectively weaker candidate than Biden to the demo of the state.

The absolute worst poll I’ve seen recently out of MI was today by the pod Bros company at Biden +3. Whittmer has like a 72% approval rating and the protests are a tiny sliver of the electorate that was always MAGA.

5/21/2020 12:51:28 PM

they're bacccccccccccccccccccccccck

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/05/20/859814085/researchers-nearly-half-of-accounts-tweeting-about-coronavirus-are-likely-bots

doubt jack will do jack shit about it.

5/21/2020 2:40:56 PM

Here's where I think things currently stand. Biden would just need Arizona or Wisconsin to go over the top, but no matter what this will be one of the closest electoral margins ever.

5/23/2020 7:56:08 PM

Can’t argue with that map. The only thing I’d say is that Susan Collins’ approval could harm Trump in Maine.

But man, that is razor thin.

[Edited on May 23, 2020 at 9:09 PM. Reason : GA is interesting b/c of hyperpartisan Collins. Could drive up turnout but need to escape primary ]

5/23/2020 9:08:11 PM

5/23/2020 9:17:46 PM

Trump is falling like a rock with old people who probably see Biden as one of them, I think this gets him Florida.

NC, I think is close, but probably a Biden win

AZ, Kelly will pull a win for Biden

5/23/2020 9:19:08 PM

RE: North Carolina

Cooper is up by 18 in the RCP average right now, but Trump is up by 1. What a ridiculous state.

5/23/2020 10:12:36 PM

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/north-carolina/ has a few more than RCP doesn't

5/23/2020 10:21:13 PM

Whoops, I meant NC will probably be a Biden loss

5/24/2020 7:56:18 AM

Libertarians held their selection for president over the weekend. Amash tiptoed in and within a couple weeks said he would not run. Their presidential candidate selection took 4 ballots and they selected Jo Jorgensen, a psychology professor at Clemson that was the party's VP nominee way back in 1996. First time the Libertarians have nominated a woman for President.

5/26/2020 8:17:20 AM

Vermin Supreme was robbed, once again

5/26/2020 8:22:22 AM

^ Finished 3rd.

If anyone wonders how "brokered/contested convention" works, here you are, although the Democrats and Republicans have their own rules:

Candidates required the support of 30 or more delegates to be placed in nomination/having a nominating speech on their behalf. Six met the threshold.

1st ballot:

Quote :

"Jo Jorgensen 248 Jacob Hornberger 236 Vermin Supreme 171 John Monds 147 Judge Jim Gray 98 Adam Kokesh 77 Write-ins 32 None of the Above 8 Majority 509 Kokesh eliminated"

2nd ballot:

Quote :

"Jorgensen 339 Hornberger 257 Supreme 184 Monds 169 Gray 64 Write-ins 9 None of the Above 6 Majority 465 Gray eliminated"

3rd ballot:

Quote :

"Jorgensen 390 Hornberger 264 Supreme 188 Monds 174 None of the Above 7 Write-ins 3 Majority 514 Monds eliminated"

4th ballot:

Quote :

"Jorgensen 524 Hornberger 285 Supreme 206 Write-ins 7 None of the Above 4 Majority 514"

Process took about 12 hours as it was conducted virtually.

5/26/2020 8:37:24 AM

Another reason ranked choice balloting needs to happen. Should only have to vote once.

5/26/2020 10:15:47 AM

For elections, I agree. For conventions? I can see the desire to give speeches/endorsements between ballots. I don't necessarily agree with it, but I get the point

5/26/2020 10:23:43 AM

^^ Delegates should have a right to react to results to inform their next vote.

I'm a delegate to the Indiana State Republican Convention, and one of the changes for going virtual is the 4-way race for Attorney General will be conducted ranked choice voting whereas it would've been a round system if done live. The difference to the Libertarian Convention vote is they were counting live time, while for this they are having all the ballots mailed and will count them at a later point in time in front of appointed observers from all 4 candidates.

5/26/2020 1:07:37 PM