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 Message Boards » » 2020 General Election Thread Page 1 ... 4 5 6 7 [8], Prev  
bdmazur
hOmaha
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< 5% margin = tossup
5%-10% = leaning
10%-15% = likely
> 15% = safe



[Edited on June 29, 2020 at 1:29 PM. Reason : -]

6/29/2020 1:28:24 PM

Geppetto
All American
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I still have PTSD and won't be able to accept anything until this election is called. I basically don't even want to assume any winning outcomes, so I won't be bedridden the day after, such as I was in 2016.

6/29/2020 1:48:46 PM

Bullet
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I'm just assuming Trump's going to win....

6/29/2020 2:38:25 PM

bdmazur
hOmaha
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Here are the final polls of 2016 before election day, using the 5/10/15 coloring (National popular vote poll was Clinton 47%, Trump 44%)



And here were the final results, using the 5/10/15 coloring (popular vote Clinton 48%, Trump 46%)



Other than Michigan and Wisconsin, the polls were pretty much right. That's 16 electoral votes out of 538. That isn't enough reason not to trust their accuracy, as long as we understand that it is a snapshot in time and nothing more. (What was wrong were TV analysts showing states within the margin of error as in one camp or the other)

[Edited on June 29, 2020 at 8:39 PM. Reason : -]

6/29/2020 8:37:48 PM

NyM410
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Biden sounds way, way more literate and coherent at this press conference than I’ve heard Trump sound since like 2013. Night and day.

Also, he was asked about cognitive decline and essentially turned it right around and said either Trump forgets things he is told in briefings, can’t read or isn’t sharp enough to understand important information.

6/30/2020 1:49:15 PM

utowncha
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how does protest or virus anger help/hurt each of them? shouldnt trump be running ads they say biden is gonna give them whatever they want (or some shit)?

hes like completely defeated after his shit rally lol.

6/30/2020 2:47:01 PM

NyM410
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Biden is extremely not online so he just essentially ignores the online MAGA and the online left. And I think normal people like him for it.

Like he was asked a question about statues and he specifically said he’d protect Columbus ones and I raged for like half a second and then realized he is too offline to take the culture war bait.

6/30/2020 3:19:15 PM

horosho
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The protest and virus anger are devastating for Trump. Without COVID or George Floyd, Trump was on his way to an easy win. He could have finessed both of them into wins for himself but he fumbled.
Now, theres a very small chance he will win. That small chance is only because there are 4 months left for him to turn it around, win the fight to substantially suppress the vote, or get lucky if the inevitable Biden implosion occurs before November.


[Edited on June 30, 2020 at 4:09 PM. Reason : this election is like that one vt nc state game where both teams shit the bed but it was still a blo]

6/30/2020 4:07:21 PM

Flyin Ryan
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I don't know what that small chance is for a Trump win. Granted, I never entertained the possibility of Trump winning in 2016 until election night when he was winning Florida.

The only silver lining for Trump is the 6% of Americans that did not vote for Trump or Clinton in 2016. The McMullin vote has to go somewhere because there's no McMullin-type candidate this year, it's probably mostly to Trump as conservative never-Trumpism has largely died. The Libertarians and Greens' votes are going to go down everyone acknowledges. Greens will be more to the Democrats and the Libertarians will be a net plus for Trump although that's up to debate. Democratic and Republican state governments are also fighting something like 60 ballot access lawsuits where they are giving no petitioning relief due to Covid and you're not really supposed to be out collecting signatures for minor parties and individuals. There were a half-million write-in votes that were not officially assigned to anyone, mostly protest votes, although Sanders was about a quarter of them it's assumed. So that I guess is all a small positive to Trump due to Libertarians are more R than D, being the largest group of all these, and the McMullin vote being completely conservative. But throw on top of all that Trump has to keep almost all of the votes of the people that voted for him in 2016. When you compare the performance of Sanders 2016 vs. Sanders 2020 in the Democratic primary once it became Biden vs. Sanders, you have to conclude a significant number of his votes were anti-Hillary votes, and Biden will likewise in the general get some Trump 2016 voters because those voters were anti-Hillary.

[Edited on July 1, 2020 at 11:43 AM. Reason : /]

7/1/2020 11:42:09 AM

Flyin Ryan
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Quote :
"Biden is extremely not online "


We as a society would be extremely way better for it if everyone was that way, or at least didn't pay attention to random things on Twitter.

7/1/2020 11:48:56 AM

NyM410
J-E-T-S
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In a sane world POTUS would see the jobs report and immediately demand more fiscal stimulus and direct payments to Americans. He would demand the Senate majority leader act.

But we don’t live there and this will be seen as evidence we don’t need

https://twitter.com/jstein_wapo/status/1278681004618768384?s=21

Lol, worst political instincts of all time



[Edited on July 2, 2020 at 9:38 AM. Reason : Or course]

7/2/2020 9:35:57 AM

bdmazur
hOmaha
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Quote :
"Without COVID or George Floyd, Trump was on his way to an easy win."


I don't doubt he could have won, but it would have been just as close as 2016 (where 1% fo the vote in three states made the difference)

Quote :
"I never entertained the possibility of Trump winning in 2016 until election night when he was winning Florida."


I figured he was going to win Florida. Even then before it was official, he was already the hometown hero. He's down by at least 5 points in every Florida poll now, but I still think he'll win it this time.

7/2/2020 11:28:28 AM

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