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 Message Boards » » 2018 Official Hurricane/Tropical System thread Page 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 ... 16, Prev Next  
beatsunc
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TWO ways to get blown



[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 6:47 AM. Reason : s]

9/10/2018 6:46:54 AM

BigMan157
Suspended
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fuck

9/10/2018 7:57:44 AM

wdprice3
BinaryBuffonary
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Quote :
"Be aware of where the 100 year and 500 year flood zones are"


This. If the inland stall forecast ends up true, there is the potential for rainfall to exceed the 500-year (0.2% annual chance) storm, possibly approaching and surpassing the 1000-year storm (0.1% annual chance). This type of rainfall is also nearing or exceeding the design storm for many dams. If you live downstream of a dam, I would have evacuate plans set, if not being proactive and leaving prior to the storm. Hurricane Matthew caused several dam failures (and bridge and culvert failures); luckily I don't believe there was loss of life due to the dam failures, but again, this current storm has the potential to make Matthew look relatively tame.

(The capacity of many dams is based on the contributing area's probable maximum precipitation (PMP) - this is the estimated "Noah's Ark" flood rainfall depth. Many people thought these hypothetical events were ridiculously conservative, figuring such depths would never be attained (though, that's sort of the idea)... then Harvey hit Houston and rewrote the records (and PMP for that area). Anywho, depending on the dam's risk class, it may be designed to safely pass 1/3 of the PMP depth, 1/2, or the entire PMP depth. While PMP depths don't really correspond to recurrence intervals (e.g. 1% or 100-year flood); if one had to put a number to it, the 1/3 PMP is often similar to a 200-500 year event; the 1/2 PMP can often be similar to a 500-1000 year event; and a full PMP may be similar to a 1000+year event. (The issue with these comparisons, is that the storm duration is ignored - when you hear 100-year storm, it almost always means the 100-year 24-hour storm; but there are other duration theoretical storms) So with all that said, this hurricane has the potential to test dams throughout the eastern half of the state.)

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 8:34 AM. Reason : /]

9/10/2018 8:21:22 AM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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Look at the tits on this bitch.

9/10/2018 8:47:21 AM

TKE-Teg
All American
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My brother (from CLT) and cousin (from FL) are coming up to stay with me and go to the WVU football game.

this...

this will be interesting.

9/10/2018 8:52:55 AM

jbrick83
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Yeah...that game is probably not going to happen.

9/10/2018 9:07:45 AM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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Yeah...the game isnt going to happen

9/10/2018 9:16:59 AM

LudaChris
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The game won't happen on Saturday*.

It might happen on Sunday though.

9/10/2018 9:41:03 AM

dmspack
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I don’t see how it could happen Sunday either.

9/10/2018 11:02:04 AM

synapse
play so hard
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So the models are firming up then?

9/10/2018 11:23:37 AM

dtownral
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lol, my wife just asked if we should buy some fans in case we lose AC

9/10/2018 11:25:08 AM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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https://giphy.com/gifs/wHZcnh2bTCBA2f0a8i?utm_source=media-link&utm_medium=landing&utm_campaign=Media%20Links&utm_term=

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 11:29 AM. Reason : s]

9/10/2018 11:29:11 AM

wdprice3
BinaryBuffonary
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it happened during matthew; barring extreme winds and / or lightning, the game will happen, unless one team chickens out

9/10/2018 12:25:35 PM

Bullet
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^^^lol.... although you can power a few fans with a small generator.

9/10/2018 12:27:45 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"it happened during matthew; barring extreme winds and / or lightning, the game will happen, unless one team chickens out"


matthew was a tropical depression iirc. this is gonna make landfill as a cat 4, i believe. not a good comparison at all. this is stronger. and there will be high winds. choosing not to play in a cat 4 isn't chickening out. it's being smart.

and matthew should not have been played, either.

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 12:31 PM. Reason : f]

9/10/2018 12:30:13 PM

dtownral
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by Saturday it would just be rain and light wind, it will just depend on how bad the area is hit

9/10/2018 12:35:29 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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Maybe pushing the game to 6 or so will help.

9/10/2018 12:48:12 PM

dmspack
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i think WV's travel will be the ultimate obstacle for the game.

9/10/2018 1:02:41 PM

TKE-Teg
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Quote :
"matthew was a tropical depression iirc. this is gonna make landfill as a cat 4, i believe. not a good comparison at all. this is stronger. and there will be high winds. choosing not to play in a cat 4 isn't chickening out. it's being smart.

and matthew should not have been played, either"


What kind of sliding scale are you using? Matthew was a hurricane at landfall. Florence isn't coming to Raleigh as a hurricane. It'll be a tropical storm.

I think the game will happen.

9/10/2018 1:20:27 PM

jbrick83
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^ I don't know about that.

9/10/2018 1:22:15 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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nope

9/10/2018 1:24:18 PM

GenghisJohn
bonafide
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Florence is going to be the worst Hurricane we've seen since Hugo

Shit is going to be an Andrew situation

9/10/2018 1:27:00 PM

Elwood
All American
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not looking good! WRAL said it will be a Cat 1 almost all the way to Raleigh

9/10/2018 1:32:50 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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yea, I dont think people realize how bad this is oging to be, if you are at the coast. You need to leave asap.

9/10/2018 1:42:27 PM

moron
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I think a lot of people realize how bad this will be.

But beyond normal hurricane prep, there's not much else we can do

9/10/2018 1:49:24 PM

dtownral
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Quote :
"It'll be a tropical storm."

so was Fran but we still got slammed with that storm

9/10/2018 1:52:19 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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^^yea not have a football game.

9/10/2018 1:59:10 PM

rjrumfel
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^^^I think he means more for the people that want to have a hurricane party rather than a hurricane evacuation.

You young pups don't remember Hugo well if you lived around here. It was tuff. I lived in Gastonia at the time....west of Charlotte, and I think we were without power for over a week.

9/10/2018 2:06:56 PM

shoot
All American
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9/10/2018 2:11:39 PM

qntmfred
retired
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I was around for Fran in 95. My family had to leave our house in the middle of the storm at 2 am because a tree had fallen at our neighbor's house and burst a natural gas line. Had to crawl over dozens of fallen trees in the street to get to a safe location further up the neighborhood. When the storm passed, there were 45 downed trees in my yard alone

When I moved to NJ in 2012, two months later Sandy hit. We were without power for over a week. With 2 infants. It sucked.

I am not looking forward to this weekend

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 2:24 PM. Reason : sigh]

9/10/2018 2:23:49 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"What kind of sliding scale are you using? Matthew was a hurricane at landfall. Florence isn't coming to Raleigh as a hurricane. It'll be a tropical storm."


I obviously worded that poorly. But my point was...Matthew was a Cat 1 as it made landfall in SC and headed back NE. And I think it’s fair to say we didn’t get the full force of Matthew as it was turning back NE. Florence, on the other hand, appears to be making landfall as a stronger storm and making an even more direct hit for us. Maybe somebody can correct me on Matthew and maybe I’m off base.

9/10/2018 2:34:47 PM

dtownral
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anyone have a copy of the hurricane fran VHS that WRAL sold? (or at least I think it was WRAL)

9/10/2018 2:37:15 PM

TerdFerguson
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I think Hugo and Fran are both decent comparisons for areas that are well inland (except this storm seems capable of bringing even more rain and potentially higher winds).

Wind speeds won’t be nuts inland, but they’ll easily be high enough to push a shit ton of trees onto power lines (especially when coupled with all the expected rain.) when you consider that this storm will be nuking the power system for about a 250-mile wide swath, probably all the way across the state, yea, it could be a while before the lineman can flip the power back onto your house. Plan accordingly!

9/10/2018 2:38:57 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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Quote :
"I think he means more for the people that want to have a hurricane party rather than a hurricane evacuation."


exactly. dont tempt fate

9/10/2018 2:57:33 PM

JT3bucky
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For everyone that doesn't remember or wasn't around/alive for Fran, this should put some giddy up in your step to prepare.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WaoNb1LnqLM

9/10/2018 3:08:02 PM

LudaChris
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Looks like some models might be shifting it a little more North/Northeast...man I hope that trend continues. Needs to come in somewhere North of the Atlantic Beach area so we're out of the path.

9/10/2018 3:15:43 PM

darkone
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This storm is going to flood so much based on current models. Think Harvey or Floyd.

9/10/2018 4:58:10 PM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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Crabtree is already under water.

9/10/2018 4:58:48 PM

darkone
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Here come the 18 UTC runs. ICON has moved east again. GFS currently in the middle of its run.

9/10/2018 5:45:44 PM

HiWay58
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Anyone have experience with the 12V Inverters? I see some 2000W ones that should power the essentials, long enough to keep stuff frozen with the assistance of extra ice. All the generators seem to be out of stock and with a sped up forecast any hopes for amazon delivery of a big generator have gone bye bye.

Alternator risk etc ?

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 5:51 PM. Reason : .]

9/10/2018 5:51:42 PM

darkone
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Going to try to run one off a car?

2000 W at 12 V is 166 Amps. No car can do that, right?

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 5:54 PM. Reason : more info]

9/10/2018 5:52:47 PM

YOMAMA
Suspended
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Raleigh PWNT. Stay home.
Call TWW for details.

9/10/2018 7:11:30 PM

darkone
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9/10/2018 7:13:39 PM

BigMan157
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come on CLP5

9/10/2018 7:35:28 PM

eleusis
All American
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That German model posted above would be horrendous for the Outer Banks and regions along the Bay.

9/10/2018 7:45:07 PM

HiWay58
All American
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The last couple of years the Euro has been the accurate one during the last few days. Let's hope that isn't the case for Flo

9/10/2018 7:46:02 PM

Bobby Light
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Can someone explain the source of these different models? What's the difference? Who are these groups? I've honestly not ever paid much attention to the nuances of weather reporting other than the occasional TV weather guy errantly predicting stuff.

9/10/2018 9:36:57 PM

HiWay58
All American
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http://spaghettimodels.com/ is a pretty quick one stop shop for many of them.

9/10/2018 9:59:48 PM

sawahash
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Fuck y'all. Fuck. This is going to be bad. Fuck fuck fuck! If it hits around Jacksonville, Carteret County will hang out in the eyewall for a very long time. Fuck.

9/10/2018 10:43:27 PM

Mr. Joshua
we want chilly willy
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Oh shit! Carteret County might be a real dump!

9/10/2018 10:48:44 PM

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