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 Message Boards » » 2018 Official Hurricane/Tropical System thread Page 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 ... 16, Prev Next  
stowaway
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Shit

9/10/2018 10:52:37 PM

beatsunc
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we need maps n shit



[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 11:17 PM. Reason : k]

9/10/2018 10:56:39 PM

qntmfred
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you leaving sawahash?

9/10/2018 11:05:46 PM

moron
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Quote :
"Can someone explain the source of these different models? What's the difference? Who are these groups? I've honestly not ever paid much attention to the nuances of weather reporting other than the occasional TV weather guy errantly predicting stuff."


It's mostly just different algorithms, often due to different size super computers used.

The euro model used to use the largest weather super computer on the planet, but not sure if US has caught back up yet.

9/10/2018 11:06:55 PM

qntmfred
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I can't believe supercomputer is still a relevant technology here. That's some 20 years ago shit. Can't they just use the cloud now? Scale up the computational power when they really need it, like right now. Bet they'd get way more accurate models if they just threw AWS some dollar bucks. It's for the public good.

And if that doesn't work, well maybe at least get a bigger crystal ball to wave your hands over.

9/10/2018 11:14:32 PM

moron
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https://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2016/02/22/supercomputer-reston-noaa-cray-ibm/80290546/

Okay the US retook the weather crown in 2016 with a fancy Cray supercomputer

Quote :
" The European weather models accurately predicted the path and strength of the devastating Hurricane Sandy that hit the New Jersey coastline and caused $65 billion in damage.

Now, the U.S. is on the rebound with this monumental supercomputer that collects, processes and analyzes billions of observations from weather satellites, weather balloons, airplanes, buoys and surface stations from around the world to help meteorologists make better weather forecasts.

The brand-new Cray supercomputer — designed, owned and operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) — processes 3 quadrillion calculations per second.
...
NOAA's purchase of the school-bus size device stemmed partly from competition from the top European weather model — better known in some circles by its acronym ECMWF (European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting). It predicted Sandy's now infamous and unusual left hook in 2012 days before the top American model — the GFS (Global Forecast System)."


[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 11:19 PM. Reason : ]

9/10/2018 11:18:07 PM

sawahash
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I'm staying. We are probably going to drug up the pup and stay at my mother-in-law's.

Her house is in better condition than ours and she doesnt have many large trees in her yard.

9/10/2018 11:26:23 PM

TreeTwista10
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If it remains on it's same path in a day or two, and any of you living at the coast have people you can visit farther inland, you really should. Once you board up your windows or roll down your storm shutters or whatnot, you're not really going to be able to do anything else to help by staying there. You gonna hold onto a piling and prevent it from being pulled out of it's foundation?

9/10/2018 11:27:20 PM

moron
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If you're on the coast, seems kinda dumb to stay there if you have a place to go

But on the other hand YOLO, gotta have something to share with the grandkids if you don't die

9/10/2018 11:31:44 PM

sawahash
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I mean, yall can add me on facebook and I'll do live updates throughout it all as long as I can or alive.

https://www.facebook.com/sarah.haas2

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 11:44 PM. Reason : ]

9/10/2018 11:37:06 PM

TreeTwista10
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9/10/2018 11:39:58 PM

qntmfred
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well, in that case I hope it ends up being an exciting, but ultimately manageable event. looking forward to watching ur crazy videos

p.s. you should really at least think about how things would go down if you end up having to evacuate. you don't want to have to be scrambling to figure out a plan when it comes time for mandatory evacuations

[Edited on September 10, 2018 at 11:41 PM. Reason : I don't like seeing the word catastrophic in that image ]

9/10/2018 11:40:51 PM

sawahash
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If we decide to leave we will head to the house in Catawba County.

It's just that if we leave, there is no telling when we will be able to come back. All roads will be cut off from the flooding. That makes me feel almost more nervous than the storm itself.

9/10/2018 11:43:08 PM

synapse
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Quote :
"That makes me feel almost more nervous than the storm itself."


You can manage when you return over those roads...you can't manage that storm.

9/10/2018 11:47:27 PM

JT3bucky
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You should definitely leave if you have somewhere to go. The storm
Surge alone will be enough to kill people. Seriously though...don’t put your life at risk to get some facebook video.

You should evacuate.

9/11/2018 12:20:41 AM

synapse
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9/11/2018 1:23:13 AM

sawahash
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I dont live close enough to the beach for the storm surge to get me and I also dont live in any flood zones. The biggest threat to us would be trees falling on the house, so that's why we are going to my mother in laws house. It's right down the road and she has no trees.

9/11/2018 6:49:26 AM

sawahash
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The shelter for Carteret County residents is in Knightdale. They aren't even doing shelters in the county.

9/11/2018 6:51:10 AM

dtownral
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my chainsaw is dead dead, i think the engine is seized, anyone have leads on chainsaws?

i'm not fucking with this storm (and i guess i need a new chainsaw just in general)

9/11/2018 7:58:49 AM

BigMan157
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yo fuck this storm. godspeed to sawahash and the other beachbillies

9/11/2018 8:06:46 AM

Byrn Stuff
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Quote :
"It's just that if we leave, there is no telling when we will be able to come back. All roads will be cut off from the flooding. That makes me feel almost more nervous than the storm itself."


But what if you need those roads to leave post-storm? It's better to be cut off from your house than cut off from help and a dry place to sleep.

9/11/2018 8:09:17 AM

sawahash
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Ok. So my mother-in-law is leaving, which makes my husband want to leave. My parents are staying, and I want to stay.

I don't know what to do.

If we leave who knows how long we will have to stay gone, and frankly, I don't know if we can afford to be gone for over a week.
If we stay, who knows what will happen.

We have our dog, and she is going to have to be allowed wherever we go. We are planning on giving her medicine to keep her calm during the storm, but we can't just keep her drugged up for a long period of time so she doesn't get on people's nerves....she's not a bad behaving dog, but she still only 1.5 years old and very high energy and she generally will not settle down as long as there are people or other dogs around that she thinks might play with her....

We also have the option of staying with my parents down in Mill Creek. They are not in a flood zone where they live, but the areas around them will flood. So we could be stuck at my parents for a while, but it wouldn't be nearly as long if we stay there as it would be if we went west of Kinston. Also, the pup would be more calm over there and I think my husband and I would also be more comfortable over there.

I think right now we are about 90% sure we are going to stay with my parents, but this new development of talking about leaving is stressing me out. I'm about in tears.

I kinda miss being a kid right now and having a grown-up making a choice for me and not worrying about grown-up things like being responsible for others and our own property.

I'm not planning on drinking during the storm, but there is a chance I will be drinking a lot in the next couple of days. Damn it, man, why can't this just be a Cat 3 and then no one would be freaking out around here.

9/11/2018 8:59:01 AM

sawahash
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Looking at the forecast, it looks like it could weaken to a Category 3 before landfall, which would be nice. I mean a Cat 3 is still strong, but we have been through those before, we have a little better understanding of what to expect. There is also talk of it taking a more northern turn and we just get the back end of it, which would be even better.

Mother fucker, y'all. This really fucking sucks.

9/11/2018 9:06:53 AM

rwoody
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I don't think there are any forecasts that predict either of those scenarios. Where did you get that?

9/11/2018 9:48:27 AM

ussjbroli
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^ yeah, I haven't seen anything about a northern turn. As a matter of fact the euro model this morning has it moving more South West into South Carolina

9/11/2018 9:54:22 AM

SSS
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News here in Greenville just said it's taken a slight northern turn. *shrug*

9/11/2018 10:09:51 AM

scotieb24
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I'm working Storm Duty Thursday and Sunday 1:00-11:00. Hope we can get the NFL games on in the Operations Center

9/11/2018 10:30:21 AM

LudaChris
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I've seen a few maps that have it stalling and then making almost a hook to the West. Some of them have it stalling over the water before hooking back to the West/SW and then moving NW. Some of them have it coming ashore and then hooking.

They seem to really not have a good indication right now of what this thing is going to do, other than mess up some part of NC pretty bad.



[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 10:34 AM. Reason : .]

9/11/2018 10:33:40 AM

moron
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Interesting looks like it’s going To South Carolina now

Raleigh weather shield activating?

9/11/2018 10:38:24 AM

Nighthawk
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My parents are staying with us just outside of Carrboro for the week while dad gets radiation treatment at Duke. They live in Edenton and he wants to go home on Thursday and reschedule the Friday appointment. The whole area around Edneton is low ground and their house backs up on a creek. They aren't in a flood zone but if storm surge blows it up the Albemarle Sound then they could be in for a shit show. They want to protect their house but I'm like WTF I'm more worried about ya'll. Ugh.

9/11/2018 10:43:05 AM

krneo1
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sawahash Be careful! Also if the entire coast is shut down, it'll be a week before anything is really back online, anyhow. This is a hell of a storm.

9/11/2018 10:48:01 AM

TerdFerguson
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^^you should def emphasize that the north east corner of the middle of the storm, typically one of the more intense areas of hurricanes, is gonna wrap around after landfall and push ungodly amounts of water up into the sounds/coastal rivers. Edenton is pretty far north compared to areas to the south, but I’d expect an epic “wind tide”/storm surge up there too.

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 10:54 AM. Reason : I guess I’d be wanting to get back too if I hadn’t tied stuff down, etc]

9/11/2018 10:52:20 AM

Metricula
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We’re in Raleigh, but I grew up in ILM and my fam is still down there. They can’t really leave due to an elder care sitch.
Richard’s fam is Down East in a flood area.

9/11/2018 11:03:43 AM

shoot
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https://www.wral.com/florence-could-hit-with-punch-not-seen-in-more-than-60-years/17834517/

9/11/2018 11:07:31 AM

Byrn Stuff
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What're y'all doing with your gas grills? From what I can see, there's not a great solution. You either have something outside in the storm, or something inside that could be a leak or a risk in a fire.

9/11/2018 11:10:00 AM

dmspack
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Was considering moving it to the garage. But it’s heavy enough that I’m not super worried about it. Probably will move it to garage to be safe.

9/11/2018 11:12:27 AM

Byrn Stuff
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See I was planning to park our cars in ours since we have a mid-sized tree with some sizable limbs just to the left of our driveway.

9/11/2018 11:17:32 AM

synapse
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Quote :
"Raleigh weather shield activating"


It's a fucking dome dude

Quote :
"They live in Edenton and he wants to go home on Thursday"


That sounds like a turrible idea. Nobody should be driving into that mess, and yeah Edenton is definitely pretty low.

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 11:23 AM. Reason : ]

9/11/2018 11:21:03 AM

moron
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^^^^ get some rope and tie it down just in case

^crap i meant dome

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 11:28 AM. Reason : ]

9/11/2018 11:27:32 AM

Bullet
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I was planning on getting an extra propane tank for the grill so I can cook/boil water if power's out for several days... was just planning on putting it in the shed. Propane tanks are designed to be pretty tough, right?

9/11/2018 11:28:45 AM

TKE-Teg
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Quote :
"See I was planning to park our cars in ours since we have a mid-sized tree with some sizable limbs just to the left of our driveway."


Definitely put your cars in the garage. Seems to me that if your grill is too large to fit inside the garage with the cars then it's probably heavy enough to not be blown around by the storm. Sounds like a win either way.

9/11/2018 11:31:23 AM

Dynasty2004
Bawls
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^^lol yes, you dont have to worry

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 11:32 AM. Reason : s]

9/11/2018 11:32:06 AM

Bullet
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Haha, thanks... was just responding to the leak/risk of fire comment above.

9/11/2018 11:33:44 AM

stowaway
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Staying put in Nags Head. Last night's run had me second guessing myself, and my parents and friends were trusting me on the storm. I feel a lot better now so I'll pick things up around the house, strap down the deck chairs, and treat it as a really bad nor'easter.

9/11/2018 11:45:05 AM

shoot
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9/11/2018 11:47:29 AM

eyewall41
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Should be fun times for the Crabtree Creek rafting club.

9/11/2018 11:50:44 AM

dtownral
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Quote :
"What're y'all doing with your gas grills? From what I can see, there's not a great solution. You either have something outside in the storm, or something inside that could be a leak or a risk in a fire."

i'm just throwing some straps on it so the cover doesn't blow around, i don't want to store propane inside the garage

9/11/2018 11:51:10 AM

BigMan157
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what about your propane accessories?

9/11/2018 11:58:44 AM

TerdFerguson
All American
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Quote :
"Staying put in Nags Head. Last night's run had me second guessing myself, and my parents and friends were trusting me on the storm. I feel a lot better now so I'll pick things up around the house, strap down the deck chairs, and treat it as a really bad nor'easter."


....This a troll post lmao?



Plz send us live updates so long as your internet/cell signal is working!

9/11/2018 12:11:50 PM

stowaway
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grill will be strapped in the corner ready to be used in the event of power outage. Ice is in the chest freezer with enough food for several days to a week if I had to. I fully expect stores to be open by Saturday afternoon at the latest even though they are all closing right now.

^not a troll post. I haven't left for a storm before and given the latest track I have no intention of leaving for this one. I stuck it out for Irene 7 years ago that had waist deep water in the yard and garage, boats floating down the street, new inlets formed, etc.

haven't left for a storm in the 31 years I've lived here. Forecast is 4-6 inches of rain, sustained 40, gust to maybe 60. That seems like an average Feb/March weekend storm.

[Edited on September 11, 2018 at 12:21 PM. Reason : I'll survive]

9/11/2018 12:14:30 PM

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