RE: Low turnout

Quote :

"The law, known as House Bill 1264, requires students and other transient people to pay New Hampshire motor vehicle licensing and registration fees if they vote and drive there, creating new logistical and financial hurdles in a state where car registration can cost hundreds of dollars. It was one of two bills aimed at tightening access to the ballot box passed by the state's GOP-controlled Legislature in the wake of the 2016 election, in which Donald Trump lost New Hampshire by less than 3,000 votes and Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte lost her Senate seat by an even smaller margin."

2/11/2020 10:46:24 PM

Bernie officially called as the winner.

Huge night for him, especially after tying in Iowa.

Warren and Biden not even top 3, they have to be pissed

2/11/2020 11:16:27 PM

Quote :

"Sanders won more voters under 30 years old in New Hampshire than all of the other candidates *combined* according to @CNN exit polls."

2/11/2020 11:21:06 PM

So what happens later when Klobuchar drops out, who gets her delegates?

2/11/2020 11:26:35 PM

Don't know, but she's ascendant. Don't expect she'll drop soon, unless she gets crushed on Super Tues.

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 12:24 AM. Reason : i'd say prob Pete, as it stands now]

2/12/2020 12:24:28 AM

I just mean procedurally, does Klobuchar assign her delegates, or do they go where they want to go? Or does the DNC reassign them...

2/12/2020 12:38:50 AM

Quote :

"Bernie officially called as the winner. Huge night for him, especially after tying in Iowa. Warren and Biden not even top 3, they have to be pissed"

I don't see how anyone can feel excited about only winning ~25% of a non-representative state's (of the democratic party) delegates.

Wake me up after Super Tuesday. None of these past two contests means anything, unless you're clinging to the belief that IA/NH are "bellwethers" because, tradition.

2/12/2020 1:10:10 AM

Yeah forget Nevada too? lets wait and see what the sure Trump states in the deep south have to say.

2/12/2020 1:31:30 AM

States like NC and Virginia are far more representative of the country and Dem electorate as a whole than IA and NH. Come on, this isn’t at all controversial.

Anyway, big night for Bernie. Klobuchar and Pete aren’t really viable to me but I’ve been wrong before.

2/12/2020 7:30:32 AM

It's only controversial in the sense that we only acknowledge that fact when it's someone like Sanders in the lead, and not when it's a centrist party player

2/12/2020 7:32:28 AM

Quote :

"To keep things in perspective a bit, I can take the votes of Warren, Biden, Steyer, Gabbard, and Yang who will all get 0 delegates tonight and none of them will be perceived as a good showing, and combined their vote total is larger than what the winner tonight will get."

Nate Silver over here

2/12/2020 8:03:56 AM

Big brain analysis

2/12/2020 8:39:24 AM

Quote :

"if biden does well in SC does that change anything?"

I don't think so. I don't think even Joe Biden thinks so. From the clips of him lately, he's acting like a whipped dog; meanwhile, he's running low on cash, and the narrative surrounding him is one of surprise, crushing, repeated defeat.

Quote :

"i'm not sure she would do that at this point, it's apparent she's been getting a lot of advice (bad advice) encouraging her to move towards the center"

If she declines to endorse Sanders, it'll be because of bad blood or political calculus, not moving to the center. What's the point of moving to the center when you drop out? Warren is 70. I guess in these geriatric days, that's no guarantee against her trying to run in 2024, but I still bet against it.

Quote :

"but it's silly to try to read anything into that beyond there just being a lot of candidates, we don't do ranked choice voting so it's impossible to guess how votes would fall if there were only 2 or 3 candidates"

OK, but by the same logic, you can't read Bernie as having a popular movement large enough to win the Democratic nomination (let alone the presidency) without the benefit of a divided opposition. As of this writing, he has 26% of the vote in NH. We don't know who the other 74% would vote for given a two-person choice between Bernie and Buttigieg, or Bernie and Trump. Small donations and no billionaires and all of that have given him about a quarter of the vote in his own backyard.

That's by your logic. I'd argue that we can guess how votes would go with fewer candidates. The field can be divided into two pretty clear lanes, centrist and progressive. At the moment, a lot more voters appear to be in the Centrist lane. As candidates drop out, I think their voters will coalesce around remaining candidates in their lane who are still perceived as viable. Moving forward, it won't be voters' support for a particular ideology that causes them to jump from one lane to the other; it will be the perceived viability of candidates.

If Sanders wins the nomination, it won't be because most Democratic voters prefer his progressive agenda; at the moment, it's clear that far more of them are voting for moderates. It will be because a string of early victories makes Sanders look like a clear winner, and that momentum will draw people in.

Quote :

"Huge night for him, especially after tying in Iowa."

Is it, though? Tying in Iowa was big because it wasn't expected; in NH, it was Buttigieg who outperformed expectations, and Sanders ended up tied with him for the number of delegates. It's not nothing; being able to claim victory from what is effectively a wash is good for momentum and narrative. But "huge" might be an overstatement.

I don't want to seem like I'm hating on Bernie here. Mostly I'm grumpy that Klobuchar got enough of a boost to keep her around, and that Biden and Warren have such egos (or such rose-colored glasses) that they'll stick around in spite of repeated drubbings.

The outcome I dread isn't Bernie winning the nomination, it's a protracted and increasingly venomous ideological battle heading into the convention.

2/12/2020 8:49:04 AM

The Culinary Workers Union which are powerful in Las Vegas put out a hatchet job missive to its members on Bernie late last night based on Bernie's healthcare plans.

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/in-new-flyer-culinary-union-warns-members-sanders-would-end-their-health-care-if-elected-president

2/12/2020 9:08:50 AM

Quote :

" OK, but by the same logic, you can't read Bernie as having a popular movement large enough to win the Democratic nomination (let alone the presidency) without the benefit of a divided opposition. As of this writing, he has 26% of the vote in NH. We don't know who the other 74% would vote for given a two-person choice between Bernie and Buttigieg, or Bernie and Trump. Small donations and no billionaires and all of that have given him about a quarter of the vote in his own backyard. That's by your logic. I'd argue that we can guess how votes would go with fewer candidates. The field can be divided into two pretty clear lanes, centrist and progressive. At the moment, a lot more voters appear to be in the Centrist lane. As candidates drop out, I think their voters will coalesce around remaining candidates in their lane who are still perceived as viable. Moving forward, it won't be voters' support for a particular ideology that causes them to jump from one lane to the other; it will be the perceived viability of candidates. "

I guess my tactical takes are:

-there's a lot of extra votes out there that can make who's winning now 3rd in April, and vice versa; candidate exits are going to play a role, so Yang even though he didn't get that much support potentially could've flipped the "popular vote winner" last night; not sure who Yang voters will vote for now
-Sanders and Buttigieg combined last night barely got a majority, 50.2%
-I think you have 6 main candidates at this point, which is huge comparing to past elections for post-NH: the top 5 from last night plus Bloomberg. Everyone not in that top 5 last night had 12.3%, or 1 out of 8 voters, which is not an insignificant sum.
-Looking long-term and the potential contested route, Sanders is going to be aided by I think he's getting 15% everywhere. I'm not sure I can say that about any other candidate. But just comparing delegates, right now the progressives have 29 and the center-left have 36.
-I don't see Warren leaving the race before March 3rd. Ditto Klobuchar. I only see Biden leaving if he does not do well in South Carolina. Gabbard will probably do a Kucinich/Ron Paul and stay til the end. Steyer I imagine may leave after S.C.
-We could be looking at a lot of what the Oklahoma primary for the Republicans was in 2016 where 3 candidates each got the same delegates everywhere making it effectively a 3-way tie and nullifying the state's influence. California is this giant enchilada with more than 10% of total delegates but if I had to guess now I think it's going to splinter. Nevada results will help us determine that. Democrats award delegates more proportionally than Republicans do so just winning does not mean near as much. The winner-take-all is what pushed Trump to win the nomination. Democrats' allocation rules it'd've been way more up in the air.

2/12/2020 9:34:37 AM

Quote :

"OK, but by the same logic, you can't read Bernie as having a popular movement large enough to win the Democratic nomination (let alone the presidency) without the benefit of a divided opposition. As of this writing, he has 26% of the vote in NH. We don't know who the other 74% would vote for given a two-person choice between Bernie and Buttigieg, or Bernie and Trump. Small donations and no billionaires and all of that have given him about a quarter of the vote in his own backyard."

record number of supporters; beat obama to multiple donor milestones; consistent good polling among young people, independents, black and hispanic voters; consistent large energetic rallies; etc...

bernie has the strongest popular movement

Quote :

"If Sanders wins the nomination, it won't be because most Democratic voters prefer his progressive agenda; at the moment, it's clear that far more of them are voting for moderates. It will be because a string of early victories makes Sanders look like a clear winner, and that momentum will draw people in."

check the exit polling again, his "progressive" (in quotes because they are not actually radical and are also supported by independents) are widely supported. for example in the NH exit polling 60% supported replacing private insurance with government plan, 66% supported making public colleges free, etc...

Quote :

"I'd argue that we can guess how votes would go with fewer candidates. The field can be divided into two pretty clear lanes, centrist and progressive. At the moment, a lot more voters appear to be in the Centrist lane."

again, check the polling, sanders leads as second choice candidate so i'm not sure why you are giving all those votes to other candidates in the event of a smaller field

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 9:43 AM. Reason : fucking republican shit heaps]

2/12/2020 9:38:32 AM

It's maddening people are treating these primaries like sporting events and looking at the scoreboard after two rounds and thinking it's anybody's ballgame.

2/12/2020 10:06:36 AM

you really can't start to make any kind of sensible guesses until after super tuesday

2/12/2020 10:14:17 AM

Quote :

"you can't read Bernie as having a popular movement large enough to win the Democratic nomination (let alone the presidency) without the benefit of a divided opposition"

This is the same shit they said about that Republican candidate in 2016, I can't remember his name. Good thing his movement died out, he had some pretty shitty ideas and was all around a garbage person.

2/12/2020 11:28:45 AM

Quote :

"This is the same shit they said about that Republican candidate in 2016, I can't remember his name. Good thing his movement died out, he had some pretty shitty ideas and was all around a garbage person."

The Republicans once you got past a certain point in the calendar have winner take all rules even if it's just a plurality. The Democrats don't, they are consistently proportional.

2/12/2020 11:46:18 AM

Front runners will get behind the leader because they want to vote for the winner. None of these guys have the staying power that Bernie did in 2016 and he stayed in long after most candidates would drop out.

2/12/2020 12:12:16 PM

They need more polls. Steyer was surging in the next two states (january polls) and might even be leading in South Carolina by now (biden crashed). He could easily find himself in the top tier going into super tuesday.

This thing is almost certainly going to be decided in a backroom at Milwaukee and I called it last year. That is why so many people are running and staying in. Cast a wide net of candidates to soak up as many delegates as possible so they can have more leverage at the convention. At that point, anyone could still win. Biden is definitely giving off vibes that he was drafted to run against his desire. Warren's behavior is also really suspicious. Patrick's sole purpose was to try and consume some new england delegates.

Quote :

""I'd argue that we can guess how votes would go with fewer candidates. The field can be divided into two pretty clear lanes, centrist and progressive. At the moment, a lot more voters appear to be in the Centrist lane.""

This is logically sound but you are assuming people are voting on pure logic. Most people aren't and you even see that a lot on here. If you start asking people why they feel a certain way, they will eventually breakdown or change the subject because even thinking about the reasoning behind their own beliefs makes them uncomfortable.

Theres a lot of Bernie/Biden, Pete/Warren, or Amy/Yang voters out there. A lot of times it has to do with the gut instinct people feel about a candidate instead of policy. Democrats a weird in that way.

2/12/2020 12:29:42 PM

Quote :

"The field can be divided into two pretty clear lanes, centrist and progressive. At the moment, a lot more voters appear to be in the Centrist lane."

As was noted, according to the Morning Consult poll, Bernie Sanders is the second choice for both Joe Biden's supporters and Elizabeth Warren's supporters:

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

It would be nice to know the second choice polling of Amy Klobuchar's supporters.

2/12/2020 12:34:24 PM

Quote :

"This thing is almost certainly going to be decided in a backroom at Milwaukee and I called it last year. "

We don't really do backrooms in U.S. politics anymore. That's one reason why Congress is such a dumpster fire.

(At least you didn't say a smoke-filled backroom, because smoking in public buildings is banned. )

The backroom in 2016 produced the Unity Reform Commission for the Democrats, but the attempt at a backroom deal at the Republican Convention vis a vis Rules failed.

Quote :

"Biden is definitely giving off vibes that he was drafted to run against his desire. Warren's behavior is also really suspicious. Patrick's sole purpose was to try and consume some new england delegates. "

Biden wanted to run in 2016 and Obama talked him out of it, effectively saying Biden's political career shouldn't be ending how it looks like it's going to end now. I wouldn't say Warren is suspicious, she also had designs on running in 2016 initially. Patrick's run and when he announced has never made any sense. But if that was the gameplan, it failed pretty bad. Maybe it was to limit fundraising potential in Massachusetts for Warren.

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 1:16 PM. Reason : /]

2/12/2020 1:07:53 PM

I think Patrick entering was all about seeing that Biden wasn't going to last and thinking there was a gap he could fill

2/12/2020 1:20:46 PM

The Republican backroom deal that failed back in 2016.

https://www.politico.com/story/2016/07/rnc-2016-donald-trump-delegates-225651

The Mike Lee mentioned is the other Senator from Utah and if you watched the Republican Convention in 2016 was who the video focused on when they were attempting to pass a minority report on unbinding the delegates.

2/12/2020 1:27:26 PM

NH dem turnout exceeded the 2008 record and also the GOP 2016 record

2/12/2020 1:30:38 PM

I think the electorate has increased as well. by percentage its between 08 and 16

Quote :

"The wrong way to look at this. 288,672 (# of Dem. Pres. Primary votes) /614,274 (Reg DEM + Undeclared in 2008) = 47% turnout 254,776/641,848 (2016) = 40% turnout 283,791 (AND COUNTING) /683,798 (2020) = 42% turnout Source: @ElectProject + @NHSecretary https://t.co/jHqRdYeti2"

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 1:36 PM. Reason : Think it's at 293/43% now]

2/12/2020 1:35:56 PM

Quote :

" I wouldn't say Warren is suspicious, she also had designs on running in 2016 initially."

Nor would any reasonable person. Earl is basically Alex Jones level paranoid.

2/12/2020 1:45:29 PM

Warren implied in her speech last night that Sanders is willing to burn down the party to get elected. She also repeated the misleading "fact" that he's supported by super PACs. Sure doesn't sound like someone who's interested in progressive unity. She doesn't have a path to victory, and all she's doing at this point is hurting the progressive frontrunner.

2/12/2020 2:02:11 PM

Quote :

"Warren implied in her speech last night that Sanders is willing to burn down the party to get elected"

What's the quote?

2/12/2020 2:59:00 PM

Quote :

""The fight between factions in our party has taken a sharp turn in recent weeks with ads mocking other candidates and with supporters of some candidates shouting curses at other Democratic candidates. These harsh tactics might work if you are willing to burn down the rest of the party in order to be the last man standing," Warren admonished."

Quote :

"“Amy and I are the only candidates in this race who are not billionaires or supported by Super PACs,” Warren said, repeating a line from last Friday’s primary debate that highlights her focus on removing the influence of money in politics."

2/12/2020 3:13:19 PM

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/warren-warns-democrats-against-harsh-tactics-in-nh-speech-supporters-of-some-candidates-shouting-curses/

Quote :

"Senator Sanders and Mayor Buttigieg are both great people, and either one of them would be a far better president than Donald Trump. I respect them both. But the fight between factions in our party has taken a sharp turn in recent weeks with ads mocking other candidates and with supporters of some candidates shouting curses at other Democratic candidates. These harsh tactics might work if you’re willing to burn down the rest of the party in order to be the last man standing. They might work if you don’t worry about leaving our party and politics worse off than how you found it. And they might work if you think only you have the answers and only you are the solutions to all our problems. But if we’re going to beat Donald Trump in November, we are going to need huge turnout within our party, and to get that turnout, we will need a nominee that the broadest coalition of our party feels like they can get behind. We cannot afford to fall into factions. We can’t afford to squander our collective power. We win when we come together."

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 3:14 PM. Reason : ^ just beat me]

2/12/2020 3:14:13 PM

klobuchar really wants to challenge warren for who has the worst political instincts:

Klobuchar: 'We need to build a big tent' for anti-abortion Democrats
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/482607-klobuchar-we-need-to-build-a-big-tent-for-anti-abortion-democrats

Buttigieg's answer quoted in that is a much better answer

2/12/2020 3:32:28 PM

^This was EXACTLY Bernie’s position till probably late 2018 (or so, it’s hard to really pin down the exact date of the flip flop.)

https://www.npr.org/2017/04/20/524962482/sanders-defends-campaigning-for-anti-abortion-rights-democrat



^^
*looks up from posting 1000th snake emoji*

2/12/2020 6:25:25 PM

lol, thank god he abandoned that. bernie now: “I think being pro-choice is an absolutely essential part of being a Democrat.”
ttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/klobuchars-big-tent-stance-on-abortion-could-appeal-to-southern-democrats-232930989.html

only video i can find is all right-wing
https://youtu.be/r-QgmvSx1Cs

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 7:43 PM. Reason : lol, the only video sources i can find are all GOP blogs]

2/12/2020 7:39:26 PM

Tucker Carlson's on fire tonight about the press framing the race on race. Biden's losing so now he's trying to pretend he's losing because not enough black people have voted. He said in the speech the other day "Our votes should count too". Sometimes he talks like he is black. Counting votes by race is actually racist.

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 8:10 PM. Reason : Bloomberg is the opposite of what people want. Bloomberg is Trump. ]

2/12/2020 8:08:12 PM

^^ how's it been going for Bernie him going to all the black churches in South Carolina and telling the congregations he was evicting them from party membership?

[Edited on February 12, 2020 at 9:14 PM. Reason : .]

2/12/2020 9:13:56 PM

Well, I just registered (D).



I'm thinking maybe Klobuchar...or maybe Biden. I don't know for sure...I've got a month before the FL primary.

2/12/2020 9:31:03 PM

That's because there's nothing interesting for you in the R primary.

I'm sure you'll bounce right back

2/12/2020 11:14:15 PM

its well established that dtr cares more about party purity than actual winning
he would prefer those ~15% pro life democrats / independents / whatever they hell they are... just vote republican

[Edited on February 13, 2020 at 7:19 AM. Reason : he also doesnt want duke registered D]

2/13/2020 7:18:29 AM

Why would any democrats want a republican to register D just to try to throw their primary?

2/13/2020 8:30:23 AM

why do you assume thats his goal or every converts goal?

2/13/2020 8:59:22 AM

I don't assume that. He's stated it over and over.

2/13/2020 9:04:58 AM

voting for amy makes him a bad faith saboteur?

2/13/2020 9:06:48 AM

This is a message board with a long history. There are more posts then today. Look a week ago and the posts a little down the page. He likely wouldn't even vote for Klob in the general. Why would that person voting for in the primary be good?
https://brentroad.com/message_topic.aspx?topic=648215&page=66#16561836


[Edited on February 13, 2020 at 9:10 AM. Reason : He used the fucking puke emoji man]

2/13/2020 9:09:36 AM

i suppose i should take a little while to consider my response before i get blacklisted by the dtowncrew

2/13/2020 9:16:12 AM

Man I'm answering pretty calmly and fully but go ahead with the eye rolls. We're all individuals. There is only like 40 people left on this site, not really enough for cliques to survive.

2/13/2020 9:24:49 AM

theduke is a trump supporter, he may register as D to vote in the primary but whomever the democrats nominate he will find a reason why that person is too much of a liberal commie sissy socialist who is going to take his guns and would rather just have trump win again instead

2/13/2020 9:49:17 AM

^^ yes
^ and yes

2/13/2020 9:54:10 AM