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 Message Boards » » Dave Doeren Credibility Watch Page 1 ... 108 109 110 111 [112] 113 114, Prev Next  
dmspack
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Ok yeah I agree with you there

10/21/2019 2:13:43 PM

yrey
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When we had the Brisset or Finley we were still average teams. The 9-win season was just smoke and mirrors. It was a down year in the ACC and yet Wake Forest still managed to beat us at home with a back up quarterback. We were scheduled to play three ranked teams and got destroyed by two, the other one was West Virginia which was canceled. I'm on the bandwagon with giving him the boot as I thought the goal was for State to be a consistently top-25 team?

10/21/2019 3:45:10 PM

dmspack
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I wouldn’t call 2018 smoke and mirrors. It was a down ACC year, just like this year and just like 2017. The ACC, outside of Clemson, isn’t good. But being the second (or third) best team in that situation isn’t really smoke and mirrors. We were a good, not great, team the last couple of years. There’s no smoke and mirrors about that. The ACC is still down and it looks like Wake is the team taking advantage of that this year.

No I’m not on the fire DD bandwagon. This was a rebuild year all along. The extent to which we are rebuilding is a bit surprising to me, but firing DD because we just lost WRs to the NFL, veteran OL and QB to graduation, and an OC to a HC position aren’t really grounds for firing a coach imo. 2020 and 2021 are the years to look to in terms of us having a more veteran team, experienced QB, etc. If we struggle then, or still have a shaky QB situation then...yeah he’ll be on a very hot seat. But some of our struggles this year should’ve been expected

10/21/2019 4:05:13 PM

rwoody
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Quote :
"veteran OL and QB to graduation"


And to the NFL in 2/4 cases there, as mad as that makes some people. I mean Bradbury is easily the most successful rookie, he's starting.

10/21/2019 4:31:18 PM

AstralEngine
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^^I agree with that, and everyone who is saying we should hire Drinkwitz seems to be forgetting his infuriating defenses that were just as bolstered with NFL level talent but couldn't win.

10/21/2019 4:32:54 PM

rwoody
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That talent is usually concentrated on Dline and 1-2 DBs.

[Edited on October 21, 2019 at 4:42 PM. Reason : But talent is on DD too I suppose ]

10/21/2019 4:36:55 PM

TKE-Teg
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I feel like we'd lose to App State this year.

That really shouldn't even be a thought in the worse of our worst "rebuilding" years.

10/21/2019 4:39:25 PM

rwoody
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Isn't app state pretty good? We're not clemson, we'll occasionally lose to pretty good non power 5 teams.

In 2016 we were bambard away from beating clemson but we lost to ecu

[Edited on October 21, 2019 at 4:55 PM. Reason : E]

10/21/2019 4:53:56 PM

dmspack
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App State is a good team. They probably would beat us.

Your perception of them as a (former) FCS program is clouding your judgement. You wouldn’t say that losing to a G5 school like Cinci or Boise or whoever should never be on the table for us even in a rebuild year. App is a legitimately good team. I’m not saying they are as good as Boise was at Boise’s peak. I’m just saying that you’re letting preconceived notions about what App is (or was) cloud your judgement.

10/21/2019 4:54:56 PM

dmspack
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Quote :
"And to the NFL in 2/4 cases there, as mad as that makes some people. I mean Bradbury is easily the most successful rookie, he's starting."


Right, I was just trying to differentiate between “went pro early” and “out of eligibility” but yeah...not only were they veteran OL and QB, they were good enough to be drafted.

10/21/2019 4:56:08 PM

Bullet
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You mean the App State that beat UNC?

You mean UNC that lost by one point to Clemson?

(j/k)

10/21/2019 5:00:36 PM

rwoody
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^^ah I see why you separated, but I was more emphasizing then correcting

OL was pretty clearly the biggest worry coming into the season, outside of qb (although some thought we wouldn't skip a beat there). Injuries didn't help there of course since we're starting 2nd string tackles at both spots now, and Whitt was one of 2 returning starters.

10/21/2019 5:03:56 PM

TreeTwista10
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App is ranked in the top-25, deservedly or not. However, they've also never beaten NC State in football, ever, so until they do...

10/21/2019 5:05:53 PM

dmspack
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^ we’ve yet to play app since their move to FBS so our record vs FCS/D1AA App in the 80s and 90s is kinda irrelevant. I agree that in general we should be better than App. I also acknowledge that App is currently a very strong G5 team and we’re a mediocre P5 team. It wouldn’t be an upset if they beat us. Even in a year where we’re better, it wouldn’t be a major upset if they beat us. I’m not trying to shit on State. But App is a good football program. Better than ECU easily at this stage.

10/21/2019 7:00:49 PM

justinh524
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what about vs 00s app in the middle of their threepeat during the 3-9 season that got Amato fired?

10/21/2019 8:41:11 PM

rwoody
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Their 1-aa 3 peat?

10/21/2019 8:48:40 PM

justinh524
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yes.

10/21/2019 8:51:58 PM

dmspack
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I didn’t realize it would be such a hot take for me to argue that present day App vs FCS App is a complete apples:oranges comparison. App is pretty good. Not “pretty good for a G5” or whatever. No, they’re just pretty good. Better than several P5 teams. That’s ok to admit.

Quote :
"what about vs 00s app in the middle of their threepeat during the 3-9 season that got Amato fired?"


I don’t get what you’re asking...what about it?

[Edited on October 21, 2019 at 8:56 PM. Reason : A]

10/21/2019 8:55:38 PM

justinh524
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It was hilarious, that's all. I have no doubt that present day App State could beat 2006 NC State.

10/21/2019 10:14:11 PM

yrey
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Quote :
" We were a good, not great, team the last couple of years. There’s no smoke and mirrors about that "


The smoke and mirrors reference applied to our back to back 9 win seasons. Why shouldn't Doeren be axed after 6 seasons if TOB was? I don't see the silver lining with Doeren.

10/22/2019 12:16:22 AM

synapse
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"Why shouldn't Doeren be axed after 6 seasons if TOB was"


Data plz.

10/22/2019 12:29:01 AM

dmspack
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DD - better recruiter, trajectory looks overall positive even in this rebuilding year
TOB - didn’t give a shit about recruiting, program was in a downward trajectory after Glennon left

10/22/2019 7:17:22 AM

MONGO
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yrey, I compared TOB statistics called out in the SBnation article published this summer to DD's record heading into this year. Results are below:

Winning percentage against ranked FBS teams: TOB - 64.3%, DD - 12.5%
Winning percentage against unranked FBS teams: TOB - 42.6%, DD - 61%
Home games against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Maryland: TOB 7-2, DD 3-4
Road games against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Maryland: TOB 1-8, DD 3-3
Road record against ACC Atlantic: TOB - 7%(!!!), DD - 39%
Road record against UNC: TOB 2-1, DD 3-0
Record vs ranked FSU: TOB 2-0, DD 1-4
Record vs unranked FSU: TOB 0-4, DD 1-0
Record vs top-10 teams: TOB 2-0, DD 0-9

Main differences are:
- DD pulls off less upsets but win more against subpar opponents
- TOB has more wins vs ranked teams but also didn't have to play against top ten teams often (two over his entire tenure vs 9 in five seasons for DD
- DD has had to face off against a playoff contender every year (either FSU or Clemson) vs TOB (ACC never had a team finish higher than 10th during TOB's tenure)

On top of all that, DD just had back to back 9 win seasons with 5+ ACC wins (something not accomplished at NC State since the early 90's). Would be foolish to let him go after that run.

10/22/2019 8:22:01 AM

yrey
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Thanks for the stats Mongo.

I do agree that Doeren is more consistent at beating crappy opponents, and that he also had to play against national champions in the ACC. But does that still give him an excuse to not have at least one signature win?

Does that still exclude from the fact that the goal was for State to be a top-25 program and have Alabamal like recruiting?

Quote :
"

A top 25 program with “Alabama-type” recruiting was Yow’s outlined goal for the program when she made the decision to replace Tom O’Brien, who went 9-4, 8-5 and 7-5 in his last three seasons. "


https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/college/acc/nc-state/article98834607.html

10/22/2019 1:04:06 PM

Bullet
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Quote :
"Alabamal like recruiting"

10/22/2019 2:13:50 PM

dmspack
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“Alabama like recruiting” is a stupid goal.

10/22/2019 2:24:18 PM

dmspack
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Sadly, we’ve never been a consistent top 25 team in our program history. I want to see us achieve it. I don’t think we should fire DD because we’ve yet to reach that goal.

10/22/2019 2:32:36 PM

yrey
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Quote :
" At the time she made the “Alabama-type” comment, Yow said it was meant as an example of a program that recruits well, especially in its own territory, and not as a way to compare N.C. State to Alabama."


^ But that's why TOB was fired and Doeren was brought here. He was suppose to elevate the program to the status or no?

[Edited on October 22, 2019 at 2:34 PM. Reason : didnt see dmspack response]

10/22/2019 2:33:42 PM

MONGO
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2017 UL or 2016 UNC were DD's signature wins. They don't look as great as top ten wins against Clemson or FSU - I don't think anyone will argue with that.

I guess I can't fault DD for not pulling off the upset or two when
(a) We rarely play teams ripe for upsets that count as "signature wins" (ranked outside the top five)
(b) We were a dropped interception and competent kicker away from beating both FSU (finished 8th) and Clemson (1st) in 2016

We're never going to recruit on an Alabama level with DD. That was used as justification for moving on from TOB. That was a bad comparison in 2013 and if that was the main goal, DD would have been fired years ago.

10/22/2019 2:42:23 PM

synapse
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fwiw

Quote :
"At the time she made the “Alabama-type” comment, Yow said it was meant as an example of a program that recruits well, especially in its own territory, and not as a way to compare N.C. State to Alabama."

10/22/2019 2:54:53 PM

justinh524
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And we are recruiting well in the local area.

Also to be a consistent top 25 team, the football budget needs to get larger by a lot.

10/22/2019 3:05:43 PM

dmspack
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"^ But that's why TOB was fired and Doeren was brought here. He was suppose to elevate the program to the status or no? "


Imo, he has elevated the program. Just not to the top 25 level. I don’t mean to be so doom and gloom, but we can’t become a top 25 program in just a few short years. To state the obvious, by definition there are only 25 top 25 programs. While I think it’s not unrealistic to hope we can crack into that tier, i do think it’s a lofty expectation....especially when it’s really never been done (on a consistent basis) in the program’s history.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/finances/

By this link, our football program expenses are 50th in the nation. We aren’t spending like a top 25 program...

10/22/2019 4:15:33 PM

packboozie
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Can anyone post the strength of schedules for DD and TOB? I feel like we played a slightly better schedule with TOB.

After we go 6-6 this year I doubt anyone would really say that Dave has elevated us.

10/22/2019 9:23:19 PM

dmspack
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SOS is a pretty flawed metric imo (for one reason, because everybody can calculate it differently) but sure here you go...via https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/ranking/schedule-strength-by-other?date=2019-01-08


---------DD--------
2018: 54
2017: 23
2016: 31
2015: 47
2014: 57
2013: 74
AVG - 47.667
-----------TOB------------
2012: 56
2011: 72
2010: 27
2009: 65
2008: 39
2007: 59
AVG - 53

Quote :
"After we go 6-6 this year I doubt anyone would really say that Dave has elevated us."


i'll still say it. this was always a rebuild year. obviously we hoped it would be an easier transition, but we aren't the type of program that can lose it's OC, QB., WRs, best OL, etc and not skip a beat the next year. There aren't many programs in the country that just reload and never really rebuild. Furthermore, SP+ (formerly S&P+) rankings by season for DD vs TOB. i'll take DD every time.

-----DD----
2018: 35
2017: 24
2016: 41
2015: 41
2014: 43
2013: 70
AVG: 42.33
Best - 24 (2017)
Worst - 70 (2013, year 1)
-----TOB-----
2012: 53
2011: 70
2010: 39
2009: 62
2008: 61
2007: 69
AVG: 59
Best - 39 (2010)
Worst - (70, 2011)

10/23/2019 6:44:21 AM

MONGO
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NCSU is currently 60th in SP+. Our down year under DD is your typical TOB year.

10/23/2019 7:57:43 AM

dmspack
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DD’s average year is about on par with TOBs best year.

10/23/2019 8:01:39 AM

AstralEngine
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Not to mention we have like 11 starters on IR this year

10/23/2019 9:45:43 AM

MONGO
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More TOB vs DD comparisons, using masseyratings.com. Wild how similar the averages are, but there was obviously a downward trend in TOB's last three years that's not prevelant in DD's last three years.

-----TOB-----
2007: Rank 66th overall, 38th SOS
2008: Rank 42, 16 SOS
2009: Rank 62, 50 SOS
2010: Rank 20, 27 SOS
2011: Rank 43, 77 SOS
2012: Rank 64, 60 SOS
Average: Rank 49.5, 44.6 SOS
Best: Rank 20th (2010), 16 SOS (2008)
Worst: Rank 66 (2007), 77 SOS (2011)

-----DD-----
2013: Rank 121 overall, 64th SOS
2014: Rank 45, 62 SOS
2015: Rank 59, 62 SOS
2016: Rank 30, 17 SOS
2017: Rank 16, 13 SOS
2018: Rank 35, 49 SOS
Average: Rank 51, 44.5 SOS
Best: Rank 20 (2017), 13 SOS (2017)
Worst: Rank 121 (2013), 64 SOS (2013)

[Edited on October 24, 2019 at 8:54 AM. Reason : .]

10/24/2019 8:52:02 AM

TKE-Teg
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Quote :
"Isn't app state pretty good? We're not clemson, we'll occasionally lose to pretty good non power 5 teams."


Quote :
"App State is a good team. They probably would beat us."


I'm aware of how they are this year, and that they're not an FCS school anymore. I'm saying that at no point should a school like App State ever beat State, were we ever really a respectable program. Which we'll apparently never be. We've been doing this for a long time, they haven't. It's...quite depressing.

10/24/2019 12:21:32 PM

rwoody
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It's nice to try to explain more but it's still a bad and wrong point

10/24/2019 12:26:25 PM

Bullet
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So let me get this straight... What you're saying is "ANY respectable program should NEVER lose to App. State. Ever." Is that what you're saying?

10/24/2019 12:33:03 PM

GenghisJohn
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Some real pathetic bullshit in here

10/24/2019 12:34:21 PM

TKE-Teg
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I'm talking about in state program status. Just sad that we can't even seem to ever handily hold onto that title. Not asking much, given the other programs.

10/24/2019 12:52:56 PM

rwoody
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What title?

10/24/2019 12:59:26 PM

marko
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the title of STATE CHAMPS

...if coach had just put me in...

10/24/2019 1:20:14 PM

rwoody
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That can't be it though bc you could easily lose to app and still claim that silly "title"

10/24/2019 1:23:11 PM

marko
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#ThisIsAppsState

10/24/2019 1:30:02 PM

Dynasty2004
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I love the Appalachians mountains

10/24/2019 3:55:05 PM

marko
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I can't put "App's" in a hashtag

10/24/2019 4:35:17 PM

yrey
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So here's what I gathered. Doeren is arguably better than Tom O Brien due to being more consistent at beating average teams. Since we'll never be a top-25 program because it's too expensive (App is ranked) then we should keep him even though he has zero signature wins in half a decade. If that's the bar then I reckon Doeren should be here for a long time.

10/24/2019 6:12:23 PM

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