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 Message Boards » » Dave Doeren Credibility Watch Page 1 ... 110 111 112 113 [114] 115 116 117 118 ... 122, Prev Next  
yrey
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Quote :
" Even if he had led us to our second ever winless conference record this year, it wouldn't be on him. Neither was the first winless conference record season in school history, that was the residuals of TOB's tenure.
"


LOL, finally a voice of reason! I fail to understand why he gets so many passes. It's not like he won anything meaningful for us.

[Edited on November 17, 2019 at 1:14 AM. Reason : format]

11/17/2019 1:13:47 AM

tower
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great coaches finds ways to make bad years average and good years great

doeren finds ways to make bad years terrible and great years good

11/17/2019 3:44:22 AM

dmspack
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Quote :
"Top 2 offensive players leave early for the NFL"


Harmon leaving was 100% not unforeseen.

Tree, you know we’ve won a conference game right?

11/17/2019 7:21:52 AM

dmspack
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Quote :
"Also, I’m not digging through the stats to find it. But inability to create TOs seems like a consistent theme under DD. It’s just that most previous teams didn’t turn it over on offense. So it was ok."


i posted this last night in the season thread.

i have some time this morning so i'll try to go through our takeaways ranking by year.

2019
5 takeaways (130th)

2018
19 (71st)

2017
21 (44th)

2016
22 (46th)

2015
22 (43rd)

2014
20 (65th)

2013
21 (60th)

the numbers aren't as bad as i thought...but even the best seasons rank just kinda average nationally. fumbles can be kinda fluky and can be 50/50 balls sometimes. so here's interceptions only stats (i could only find them on a per game basis so that's why it's different looking)

2019
0.3 interceptions/game (120th)

2018
0.8 (66th)

2017
1.1 (37th)

2016
0.7 (91st)

2015
1.1 (37th)

2014
0.8 (82nd)

2013
1.1 (45th)


these stats really aren't as bad as i expected, there's a couple of solid seasons in there. but even those best seasons aren't great.

11/17/2019 8:56:04 AM

wdprice3
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Quote :
"Tree, you know we’ve won a conference game right?"


hard to see that bar so high!

11/17/2019 11:51:36 AM

dmspack
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I mean, TT is the one that said we were on our way to going winless in ACC play for the second time ever. That’s obviously not true. Our record is abysmal, but let’s not exaggerate it beyond what it really is.

11/17/2019 12:15:10 PM

TreeTwista10
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when did i say that? i was simply making fun of Earl making excuses for DD, while taking a jab at DD's first season

[Edited on November 17, 2019 at 1:08 PM. Reason : .]

11/17/2019 1:08:21 PM

dmspack
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I gotcha. I misinterpreted what you were saying.

11/17/2019 2:00:10 PM

JT3bucky
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21-33 in ACC play after 7 years.

Pretty bad.

Fire DOeren

11/17/2019 6:33:16 PM

rayef3rw
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To be honest, I can't hop on board the "FiRe DoErEn!1!1!!" train until someone provides a reasonable replacement.

Who would/should/*could* we replace him with? I mean this completely seriously, I actually agree with horosho that this year's problems have been near-innavigable. BUT ideally that should mean we've got a damn experience team coming up next year with all the underclassmen getting extra playing time and vets having time to teach and learn from injuries.

IF next season turns out to be a bust then I'll hop on the bandwagon, but for now? Who else?

11/18/2019 6:20:50 AM

dmspack
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also, i don't think you're gonna have coaches lining up to take the job when you fire the guy that just had back to back 9 win seasons and back to back winning ACC records for the first time in 25+ years. i get that you can argue it was an easy schedule and that this year has been bad. but i think DD has earned the right to have a down year (especially one that we already knew would be a rebuild) without immediately firing him.

11/18/2019 6:49:57 AM

BJCaudill21
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I'm not sure how much is Doeren's fault, but I'll take Chad Morris as OC and anybody else on earth at DC.. Then go from there.

11/18/2019 8:07:51 AM

MONGO
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I don't think any rational state fan is pushing for DD to be let go, but it's not right to say there's nothing DD could have done to prevent this season from happening.

The Drink => Kitchings/McDonald transition and losing Ledford falls on DD's shoulders.

I know DD found Drink and Ledford, so there's a chance he can find similar coaching talent again, but early returns are... not good.

11/18/2019 8:13:21 AM

dmspack
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^^ realistically I don’t think we have a shot at Morris. He could land just about any OC job he wants or even a HC gig at a non P5 school. Whether it’s right or wrong, I also don’t see DD moving from his current OC(s) after 1 season either.

11/18/2019 8:32:53 AM

rwoody
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Should he have promoted Ledford to oc and drink.....to HC? Actually don't answer the last part.

11/18/2019 8:33:06 AM

dmspack
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^ I know you’re obviously joking. But to circle back to the original point, Drink had his eyes on a HC job all along. I don’t remember the timing of Drink leaving compared to Ledford leaving. But I guess a possible solution woulda been to promote Ledford to OC after Drink left. But again, maybe Ledford took his position at UL before Drinkwitz had accepted the App job. Not sure on that.

Also, Ledford was on Satterfield’s staff at App. So Ledford May have wanted to be back with Satterfield regardless of Doeren offering him the potential OC spot here.

Again, the timing was kinda unfortunate on Ledford if DD would’ve wanted him as OC. But you can’t blame guys for leaving for better jobs.

11/18/2019 8:40:54 AM

MONGO
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Should have been more specific - I was being critical of the new OC's. I have no issue with Drink taking the App State job.

Quote :
"Ledford was on Satterfield’s staff at App. So Ledford May have wanted to be back with Satterfield regardless of Doeren offering him the potential OC spot here."


I guess we don't know, but per my half-assed research:

12/14 State promotes new OCs https://www.newsobserver.com/sports/article223139475.html
12/15 App officially hires Drink https://www.journalnow.com/sports/asu/football/app-state-hires-n-c-state-offensive-coordinator-eliah-drinkwitz/article_3a58f984-0598-55a7-aef7-d26693e5d0e1.html
12/18 UL announces Ledford hire https://gocards.com/news/2018/12/18/louisville-football-names-ledford-offensive-coordinator-offensive-line-coach.aspx

Maybe Ledford had his foot out the door? Idk. Regardless, early return on the new OC's has been bad and I'd think a competent staff could find some use from one of the three QBs on our roster. That's on DD.

[Edited on November 18, 2019 at 8:55 AM. Reason : .]

11/18/2019 8:54:22 AM

LudaChris
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Quote :
"The Drink => Kitchings/McDonald transition and losing Ledford falls on DD's shoulders. "


Why is that Dave's fault? It's no more his fault than losing Faulkner to the Steelers, we've had success and dudes are getting promotions/bigger gigs, that's what a HC wants.

Drink was offered to become a HC, there is NOTHING Dave could have done to keep him in the fold, nothing.

Ledford was approached about the App State HC position and he had no interest. Instead he got offered the job he wanted, which is to be OC for his old coach and best buddy. It makes perfect sense for Ledford, which do you think is a better/safer career move?

OC at UL -> Satterfield is the play-caller and installs the system so you don't have to call plays or carry that burden, you have NO expectations in your first year, and UL pays it's coaches more.
OC at NC State -> You'd have to call the plays and be responsible for the entire offense, you're having a changing of the guard across the board on offense and your program is coming off 2 good seasons so you know there are going to be built-in expectations.

It's a no-brainer for a guy like Ledford, he gets to do the same job he did at NC State with a better title and bigger paycheck at UL with less expectations/stress. It's an ideal gig.

If we don't promote Kitchings/McDonald, we literally turnover our entire offensive staff and top 2 recruiters, you think we could have salvaged that? Hell UL was trying to poach BOTH of those guys, so if we don't promote then to co-OCs, we 100% lose both.

Not sure how you can watch our team on offense and think the OCs are the problem. We had guys wide open early in the season and McKay was missing them, we have WRs dropping passes, QBs throwing picks and fumbling, we had more yards than UL last game but our coaches can't prevent our dudes from turning the ball over.

[Edited on November 18, 2019 at 9:04 AM. Reason : .]

11/18/2019 9:03:52 AM

packboozie
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This guy is toast. I know I know he's going to get another year. Next year is 6-6 at best. He's not the answer. His record is worse than MOC, CTC, and TOB.

We're fucking awful. GT just lost 45-0 to VT. They lost to the freaking Citadel.

11/21/2019 11:21:40 PM

horosho
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So you're judging him as a bad coach because of one season? His record was better until this year which is just an extreme outlier. Just blindly comparing at stats without any context isn't good analysis. If he improves to 6-6 next year, thats a good sign. You would fire a coach who has momentum improving the program and building a better team from year to year?

What are your expectations? 9 wins isn't good enough for a coach making 3 million a year?

11/21/2019 11:29:25 PM

Jrb599
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DD underachieves with the talent on the team. Time to move on.

11/21/2019 11:33:29 PM

TreeTwista10
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unless he loses the rest of this season's games by 50 points apiece, he'll be back next year, so deal with it

11/21/2019 11:37:36 PM

jbtilley
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He'll be back. Maybe some fans won't.

[Edited on November 21, 2019 at 11:51 PM. Reason : lol, does State have fair weather fans?]

11/21/2019 11:50:46 PM

horosho
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Thats demonstrably false. He's had 2 great years (above expectations), 2 bad years (below expectations), and 2 push years (at expectations). It breaks down this way no matter the metric you use. He's 2-2-2 against his 4 year recruiting aggregate ranking, his salary range and also NC State's historical averages. We don't even spend top 40 money on assistants.

The question is, if you fire him and want to spend 5 million a year on a better coach, fine but we've gotten good results based on what we've paid for Dave. At +3 millon, you won't find a better coach and you won't be able to poach one from another school. You'd simply be taking a chance on another midmajor guy who most likely would not even pan out as well as Dave.

https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/football/assistant
https://sports.usatoday.com/ncaa/salaries/

I'm sick of our tight ass fanbase expecting a Porsche 911 with VW Jetta cash. You get what you pay for. Dabo gets paid 3x more than doeren yet you expect to compete. Huxtable is the 88th highest paid assistant coach. Only last year, did we start paying doeren more than the assistants at top programs.

[Edited on November 21, 2019 at 11:59 PM. Reason : i forgot the "we need to compete for championships" metric]

11/21/2019 11:57:48 PM

packboozie
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ToB went 9-4, 8-5, 7-5 and got canned. 5-3, 4-4, 4-4 in ACC. Dave has had losing seasons in ACC play 5 out of 7 times. TOB had two such years. He's not an improvement. Coaching wise easily worse. Slightly better recruiting. His time here is done. Next year will be wasted.

[Edited on November 22, 2019 at 12:03 AM. Reason : Dave Clawson makes $1 million less and has beat him three years in a row with less]

11/22/2019 12:01:48 AM

TreeTwista10
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I wonder how different people would view Doeren if Bambard had made one FG

11/22/2019 12:11:17 AM

justinh524
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Or if Finley had led more than 1 comeback win in his 3 years (and in that single instance he threw 0 TDs for the game.)

11/22/2019 12:41:19 AM

thegoodlife3
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^^ wasn’t a fan before, haven’t been a fan since

have a feeling I’m not the only one who feels that way

11/22/2019 12:46:42 AM

dmspack
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Quote :
"I wonder how different people would view Doeren if Bambard had made one FG"


wasn't that the year he beat UNC to become bowl eligible and essentially save DD's job? so in that alternate reality, i'd guess DD wouldn't have been on the hot seat that year...but by now any good will from that Clemson win would've worn off. it would've been the best win in program history. but it was also 3 years ago....so i don't think a single win can carry that much weight for that long.

i completely understand the fan base's frustration with DD. i've been a DD supporter for most of his tenure. but i get why people are fed up. this has been a really frustrating season. i feel like DD has earned himself the right to a down/rebuild season without firing him right away, and then he'll deservedly be on the hot seat going into 2020. the DD arguments, for and against, have been beaten into the ground so there's no sense in me rehashing my own opinions.

it will be interesting to see if there are any staff shake ups this offseason at coordinator and/or position coaches

[Edited on November 22, 2019 at 6:42 AM. Reason : j]

11/22/2019 6:40:52 AM

Sweden
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Get this dude the fuck out of here.

11/22/2019 7:41:02 AM

JP
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"it will be interesting to see if there are any staff shake ups this offseason at coordinator and/or position coaches"


there absolutely has to be, no other way around it for DD

11/22/2019 7:55:15 AM

Dynasty2004
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lol PackPride is a shit show and its amazing. Dudes are losing it

11/22/2019 8:01:49 AM

MONGO
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We're young, lost an NFL QB, inexperienced, breaking in new OC's, and injury-prone. IDK what folks expect at this point in the season.

DD's been poop against teams with winning records but great against mediocre/bad teams (outside of this season).

I'm not a fan of the guy but it doesn't take a genius to see this season as an anomaly (if you compare his trajectory to his previous 6 years).

EDIT: Reading early season predictions on TWW (lol we were all so optimistic), I forgot how favorable this schedule was going into the season. We've faced 5 new coaching staffs!

[Edited on November 22, 2019 at 8:14 AM. Reason : .]

11/22/2019 8:09:13 AM

Wolfey
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This season has been awful, but we just don't have the budget or donors to fire DD and bring in a capable replacement. The coaching landscape has changed and our total coaching budget would need to be a lot higher to meet our fans expectations, which is not going to happen.

I am fine with DD getting one more year to try to right the ship, but he is going to need to make some staffing changes especially on defense.

11/22/2019 8:39:55 AM

dtownral
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there better be some assistant coach change ups

11/22/2019 9:14:02 AM

JP
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DD's buyout is like $6 mil +? Rather just take a part of that (if people are trying to scrounge that up) and increase the assistant coach pool

11/22/2019 9:16:48 AM

GenghisJohn
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you dont fire DD unless you have a lock on someone clearly better to progress the standing of this program

better to try and build on a crest year or two of program momentum than the trough i think

11/22/2019 9:42:10 AM

Dynasty2004
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You honestly hope we are successful enough in the next 2 years that he gets a better job somewhere.

11/22/2019 11:15:14 AM

LudaChris
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If we fire Doeren, we deserve whatever shitty HC we end up with.

If we miss a bowl again next year, then his seat will be warm. Right now his seat isn't remotely warm, our online fans are just fucking insane.

11/22/2019 11:21:56 AM

dmspack
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^while i agree that there's a lot of restless fans online and that they are premature in calling for his firing...i think his seat will be beyond just "warm" if he doesn't make a bowl next year. a bowl is relatively easy to make. he can afford a rebuild year this year...and while we all hoped this rebuild season would be painless, it obviously has had bigger obstacles than most of us expected. however, i don't think he can survive a 4 or 5 win season next year. we should go 3-1 in OOC (although playing @Troy is dumb imo...they're solid enough to beat us, no need for us to travel there). we get Wake, Duke, BC all at home. FSU is still rebuilding and that's a home game, @Cuse and @UNC won't be easy but those teams aren't unbeatable at all. while all of this is way too soon to predict, i think a bowl should be the minimum next year.

11/22/2019 11:53:46 AM

dmspack
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this thread of tweets from ESPN writer David Hale is pretty good perspective imo

Quote :
"NC State is awful this year. There are lots of reasons for it - from lack of consistent QB play to myriad injuries to recent NFL departures to slower development from some younger guys. I have trouble putting much of the blame for any of this on Dave Doeren though.

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

This season in a lot of ways is the result of the success of the past few years. NC State had tons of 3 & 4 year starters - which is great. But it also tends to make recruiting and development behind those guys tougher. Hence, a transitional year.

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

But let’s look bigger picture.

Including 2020, Doeren has 11 blue chip recruits in 3 years.

In the 10 years before his first full class, NC State signed 10 blue chips.

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

Look at players drafted:

From 2007 through 2014, NC State had 19 players drafted (in 8 years).

From 2016-19 they’ve had 17 (in 4 years).

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

Look at on-field success:

Weeks in AP top 25
2017 & 2018: 12 weeks
2002 through 2016: 4 weeks

W-L vs P5/BCS in 3-year increments
2004-06: 8-17
2007-09: 9-17
2010-12: 13-13
2013-15: 6-19
2016-18: 17-13

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

You might say Doeren has underperformed his talent & that’s partially true. All those NFL guys last few years didn’t = an ACC title. But based on 247’s talent composite, THIS is actually his most talented team. NC State ranked 9th in the ACC in avg talent in 15, 16, 17 & 18.

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

None of this is to suggest Doeren is without fault and I’m not a fan of the “know who you are” logic of defining a CFB program. But let’s be real about who NC State is today…

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

The Wolfpack are not a program capable of just winning 8-10 games every year without ever stepping back. They don’t get to reload. They have to rebuild. That’s life for programs like this. If you want that to change, you have to give coaches some leeway to do it.

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

Again, I’m not suggesting Doeren = Dabo or anything of that nature, but NC State is in a far better place today than it was when he arrived & the fact that there’s real frustration now is actually a product of that success. Yes, this year stinks. But I can’t see panicking.

@ADavidHaleJoint
·

And I should also add that there’s roughly a 0.01% chance NC State was going to move on from Doeren anyway, but just a quick reality check for the fans who are (rightfully) upset about the best course forward."


i do think he glosses over some of DD's in-game coaching shortcomings...but overall i agree with his larger point. this is a frustrating season. but on the whole, i think he can continue to build here and potentially get us to a point where rebuild years are very rare and 7+ reg season wins is the minimum. it sucks to have to just "be patient" because we all wanna win now. but i think cycling through a new coach every 6 or so years isn't a formula for long term success. DD has shown he can put a winning product on the field. he's shown he can get guys to the NFL. he and his staff have shown a knack for identifying talent in recruiting. he isn't perfect by any stretch...but i think he's shown that he can build a program. so i'm in the camp of allowing him to continue to build.

11/22/2019 12:29:43 PM

Dynasty2004
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^Thats actually really good info.

11/22/2019 1:31:34 PM

MONGO
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A different perspective, courtesy of @statefansnation:

Quote :
"
DD Stats & Info:

Overall Record at NC State = 47-41
ACC Record = 21-34

Record as a favorite = 41-12* (77%)
Record as an underdog = 6-29 (17%)

*3/12 losses as favorite are this season (WVU, BC, GT)

H/T to @joshwgoodson for underdog info.

----

(1) There is SO MUCH in this that has to be be unpacked. In short, based on what we KNOW of DD's strengths and weaknesses, then it is easy to conclude that the future is going to be TOUGH.

(2) DD has PROVEN he CANNOT consistently recruit at a high level. (See composition of this team). And, he has PROVEN over long term that he HAS to have more talent than his opponent to win. It's 100% clear in the numbers. He HAS to have more talent than his opponent to win games.

(3) Do you believe that our recruiting is going to get better in the current situation? If not, how do we believe that he suddenly starts winning games that he has NEVER won with even less talent in the future than he has had in the past?

(4) Want to know how the next few years play out? Just compare the talent on the roster to our competitors. Performance is directly correlated. We know that DD has NEVER out-schemed or out-thought anyone to make up for talent deficiency. We've seen it. And, the numbers show it.

(5) Related - UNC now has a better recruiter & a better coach than their last guy. So, what DD was able to accomplish in recruiting and on field vs UNC is now far less probable to continue (as UNC took ownership of their program & made a move to get better)

(6) DD has proven a tangible ability to develop talent into good players over a 4 to 5 year period. You have seen the PEAK of what his 4 to 5 year work brings - no big wins; 2nd & 3rd place finishes in the ACC; 1-1 in 2nd tier bowls; meh. Is the obvious pain ahead worth that?
"


Not a huge fan of this logic - he correlates Vegas favorites with overall team talent level and doesn't compare DD's record vs other coaches to provide context (I'd envision most coaches lose more when they are the underdog... duh).

Thought it was worth sharing nonetheless.

11/22/2019 2:04:54 PM

justinh524
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that is a whole lot of dumb. thanks statefansnation!

11/22/2019 2:24:29 PM

HCH
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I had to stop following SFN. They are just so negative and make sports really unenjoyable. Also, there is not much logic to their arguments. As shown above.

11/22/2019 3:03:19 PM

dmspack
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Yeah I don’t agree with much from that SFN post.

The logic isnt great but...using that logic, couldn’t it be considered a sign of a strong program that DD has been favored in over 60% of his games? I mean, I don’t necessarily subscribe to that logic. But if that’s your basis for measuring a coach’s ability, then you have to acknowledge that 60% of the time, according to Vegas, he’s had a better team than his opponent. Which would be a good thing. It’s all a flawed basis for judging a coach imo.

But this part

Quote :
"DD has PROVEN he CANNOT consistently recruit at a high level."


Unfortunately, I don’t think many coaches ever will turn State into a consistent, say, top 20 recruiting program. We just don’t have the brand name, tradition, success, etc to do that overnight. It would take a major rebuild of the program and some major investment from boosters (and the necessary bag men) to pull that off. Im not saying we’ll never land good recruits...we’ve actually ya some good classes recently. Sure, we can recruit better than we’re recruiting now. But DD hasn’t really recruited poorly, either. So of all the criticism you could rightly give DD, criticizing his recruiting is probably not the right place to start.

For reference, here’s the top 20 from 2019....What team(s) should we realistically expect to consistently recruit better than?

Alabama, Uga, Texas, TAMU, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, Michigan, Florida, Clemson, Auburn, Penn State, Tennessee, Ohio state, UW, ND, South Carolina, Nebraska, FSU, USC.

Yes, I did the top 20 arbitrarily. I wasn’t sure where to draw the line but the SFN piece just said “recruit at a high level” so I’m not sure where you draw that line.

11/22/2019 4:04:50 PM

rwoody
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Who reads sfn

11/22/2019 5:04:08 PM

dmspack
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^very fair question.

11/22/2019 5:10:28 PM

Dynasty2004
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Quote :
"
Alabama, Uga, Texas, TAMU, LSU, Oklahoma, Oregon, Michigan, Florida, Clemson, Auburn, Penn State, Tennessee, Ohio state, UW, ND, South Carolina, Nebraska, FSU, USC. "


Not one of these teams could we out recruit imo consistently

11/22/2019 6:19:10 PM

dmspack
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Yeah and that doesn’t mean we can never hope to sprinkle in a few top 20 classes here and there and hope to otherwise consistently be top 35 or whatever. but I think it shows just how hard it is to live up to that SFN expectation (and just general expectation) of recruiting at a “high level” consistently.

South Carolina doesn’t have the history and success to belong on that list. But they are SEC. And they do have more football resources than we do. And that was also a single year of rankings. I guess a more telling thing would be to take the 3 year average of recruiting rankings and then look at the top 20 over those years. But whatever.

11/22/2019 6:26:15 PM

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