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justinh524
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"Your counterpart in Chapel Hill has 2 better wins more than even your best win at State. fuck"


Lol. SC will be lucky to win 4 games this year and Miami will be fighting GT for last place in the division.

9/8/2019 10:34:12 AM

dmspack
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Ehh, I dunno about Miami being *that* bad. Pitt might be worse. Duke might be worse. But Miami looks like a 7 win team, not a 9+ win team

9/8/2019 12:05:06 PM

Dynasty2004
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Seriously, show me 2 better wins by Doeren?

9/8/2019 12:35:07 PM

justinh524
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2018 Marshall (9-4)
2018 Virginia (8-5)
2018 Boston College (7-5)
2017 Marshall (8-5)
2017 FSU (7-6)
2017 Louisville (8-5)
2017 Boston College (7-6)
2017 Arizona State (7-6)
2016 Old Dominion (10-3)
2016 Wake Forest (7-6)
2016 UNC (8-5)
2014 Georgia Southern (9-3)
2014 Central Florida (9-4)


All of these wins are better than UNC's win over South Carolina this year.

And Miami is not good this year. Their offensive line is pretty much nonexistent. Their game versus Florida was one of the worst displays of football I have ever witnessed.

9/8/2019 12:38:18 PM

dmspack
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I’d quibble with a few of those (Marshall and ODU immediately stick out). But yeah. SCar ain’t good...win over UVa last year, UL on Thursday night, @FSU all stick out as probably better than SCar. Imo, Miami remains to be seen...

9/8/2019 1:53:38 PM

dmspack
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Also, why the fuck does it matter? Doeren has back to back winning ACC seasons. We are on stable footing and trajectory looks positive. Stfu about unc, it really doesn’t matter at this point. Again, we could go 11-1 this year and even that might not satisfy your opinion that the wins aren’t impressive.

9/8/2019 1:55:47 PM

Dynasty2004
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It’s a conversation, get over yourself

9/8/2019 2:36:42 PM

dmspack
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Lol. It’s a dumb conversation imo that is completely arbitrary and has no bearing on the larger topic at hand (DD’s credibility)

[Edited on September 8, 2019 at 2:41 PM. Reason : Trying to get over myself ]

9/8/2019 2:40:15 PM

rwoody
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"2017 FSU (7-6)
2017 Louisville (8-5)"


Per S&P+, these two teams were top 15. SC and Miami are currently 28-29

9/8/2019 6:33:41 PM

dmspack
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‘17 FSU finished top 15 in S&P? Wow that surprised me. Neither here nor there, but that UVa win last year never quite got the credit it deserved. Perkins was still learning the ropes when we played them, but we handled them easily and they turned out to be better than anybody really expected. I’m not saying it’s an all time great win. Just an underrated one, really.

9/8/2019 7:16:57 PM

MONGO
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Speaking completely anecdotally, it does seem like we've traded the highs/lows of the TOB era for a consistent rate of improvement under DD. We're beating teams we're supposed to beat 95% of the time, but we also rarely pull off an upset (like FSU 2012 or Clemson 2011).

Fedora beat the following top-15 S&P teams while at UNC:
- 2016 FSU (10-3)
- 2016 Miami (9-4)

Both coaches were/have been pretty mediocre against more talented teams.

[Edited on September 9, 2019 at 8:59 AM. Reason : .]

9/9/2019 8:45:34 AM

LudaChris
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The problem is we're talking about strength of wins 2 games into the season.

FSU and UL were ranked fairly high when we beat them, but as the year progressed we realized they were garbage. I believe as this season progresses, we're going to discover that UofSC and Miami are both terrible teams. UofSC just lost their starting QB for the season and Miami has no sign of an OL and their HC is a huge question mark.

UNC is going to end up with a decent record this year, but I think people are going to attribute too much to Mack. UNC was riddled with injuries the last 2 years and I think in 1-score games they were 2-8.

The funny thing is UNC was down in the 4th Q to both those teams this season and could just as easily be 0-2, the luck pendulum has swung back and is averaging itself out a bit. UNC is going to make a bowl game if Howell stays healthy. Another funny thing is that Fedora had Howell locked up as a silent commit before he was fired, but I'm sure Mack is going to get all the credit for landing Howell and "fixing" their offense haha.

9/9/2019 9:34:21 AM

MONGO
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Comparing the numbers provided by that SB article a while back. Records taken from espn.com, which I think were records at the time of the game, not end of season records:

Winning percentage against ranked FBS teams: TOB - 64.3%, DD - 12.5%
Winning percentage against unranked FBS teams: TOB - 42.6%, DD - 61%
Home games against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Maryland: TOB 7-2, DD 3-4
Road games against Wake Forest, Boston College, and Maryland: TOB 1-8, DD 3-3
Road record against ACC Atlantic: TOB - 7%(!!!), DD - 39%
Road record against UNC: TOB 2-1, DD 3-0
Record vs ranked FSU: TOB 2-0, DD 1-4
Record vs unranked FSU: TOB 0-4, DD 1-0
Record vs top-10 teams: TOB 2-0, DD 0-9

What stood out most to me when comparing these records/schedules were:
- 12.5% against ranked FBS teams for DD. Need to improve that to take the next step.
- TOB was 1-14 against the Atlantic on the road! Insane.
- We've played 9 top-ten teams during DD's tenure, but only two during TOB's time. All were through ACC/games against Notre Dame. Really speaks to the rise of Clemson/FSU (from 2013-2016)
- I selfishly wish we schedule more interesting OOC games. I understand scheduling cupcakes during the beginning of DD's tenure, but over the last four years we've played William & Mary, East Carolina, Old Dominion, South Carolina, Notre Dame, Marshall, Furman, James Madison, Georgia State, West Virginia, Western Carolina, and Ball State. Only three P-5 schools and we're required to play Notre Dame.

9/9/2019 9:58:28 AM

dmspack
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lol Louisville wasn’t garbage in 2017. They had Lamar Jackson, finished the regular season 8-4, lost the bowl and finished 8-5...14th in S&P+.

Overall, yes...DD hasn’t really punched up much. We’ve not had the big upsets in his tenure. Part of that could be due to Clemson being a complete juggernaut, basically being unbeatable. And the rest of the Atlantic being inconsistent making for less upset opportunities.

[Edited on September 9, 2019 at 10:12 AM. Reason : A]

9/9/2019 10:10:37 AM

rwoody
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Fsu also finished high in S&P in 2017. Their only "bad" loss (other than us?) was getting stomped away to a so so BC team.

9/9/2019 10:17:57 AM

Dynasty2004
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Quote :
"And the rest of the Atlantic being inconsistent making for less upset opportunities.
"


Beating Syracuse or WF last year would have been his biggest wins to date. Dude just cant get it done. I hope he proves me wrong

9/9/2019 10:54:29 AM

dmspack
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2 straight 9 win seasons and 2 straight ACC records >.500...first time for either of those accomplishments since 1991-1992. what are your expectations for nc state football?


beating wake when we were 2 touchdown favorites would definitely not have been his biggest win to date. that was an inexcusable loss and he deserves blame for it. but lol at that being a potential "big win".

[Edited on September 9, 2019 at 12:25 PM. Reason : u]

9/9/2019 12:24:43 PM

rwoody
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Dynasty you need to give some quantitative evidence for your arguments bc otherwise they look ridiculous

9/9/2019 12:33:42 PM

hey now
Indianapolis Jones
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Beating Miami at home is on the level of beating BC, Wake, Pitt, VT, etc at home.

9/9/2019 12:48:59 PM

MONGO
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Not Dynasty, but I get what he's saying.

I'd argue the three best wins of DD's tenure are against:
- A Louisville team that finished 9-4. DD's coming out party. No complaints here.
- An FSU squad that needed to schedule an extra game to become bowl eligible who were starting a freshmen QB for his first career start, coming off of a 2-3 week layover due to a hurricane. I know I'm nit-picking but we were really fortunate to play them when we did.
- A 2016 UNC team that was whimpering into the offseason that previously lost to a Duke team that finished 1-7 in the ACC. Might have saved DD's job.

DD's 22-3 in OOC games (per Lauren Brownlow) but 1-2 against P-5 schools, with that win coming against a pass-happy Notre Dame (who would finish 4-8) in a HURRICANE. (I've said it earlier today, but I'm still blown away we've only scheduled 4 OOC games against P-5 teams in 6 years, 2 of which were mandatory against Notre Dame).

We've played a weak in-conference schedule over the last two years:
- We've only played three teams that finished with a winning record (Clemson twice, Cuse last year) and have gone 0-3.
- The collective record of teams we've beaten the last two years are 29-59.
- The collective record of teams we've lost to over the last two years are 28-12.
- Looking at cross-division opponents... in 2018, we played teams that tied for 3rd and 7th in the coastal. In 2017 we played teams tied for 4th and 7th.
- Looking back, we've only beaten one team that finished the season with a winning ACC record during DD's tenure (2016 UNC). Over the last three years, we're 1-7 against teams that finished with a winning record in the ACC.

I get that we're in a great place football-wise (I think of this as a "rebuild" season and I still expect 7 wins) and I know I'm a spoiled football fan... But it's hard for me to shake the feeling our success the last two years are due to a soft OOC scheduling and a weak conference, save for Clemson.

Thank you for reading my Ted Talk.

9/9/2019 2:19:09 PM

Dynasty2004
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Quote :
"I get that we're in a great place football-wise (I think of this as a "rebuild" season and I still expect 7 wins) and I know I'm a spoiled football fan... But it's hard for me to shake the feeling our success the last two years are due to a soft OOC scheduling and a weak conference, save for Clemson.
"


You put it into better words than I ever could have. Can I buy you an Old Tuffy sometime?

9/9/2019 2:21:26 PM

HCH
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^^Good analysis, except by definition, a fan of NC State football can not be spoiled.

9/9/2019 3:16:25 PM

dmspack
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"(I've said it earlier today, but I'm still blown away we've only scheduled 4 OOC games against P-5 teams in 6 years, 2 of which were mandatory against Notre Dame)."


Playing a P5 team OOC is now required by the ACC. Should’ve played WV last year, but it was cancelled. We have Miss State, Texas Tech, Vandy all on future schedules.

I agree that the ACC has been weak. They ACC was also weak when Wake fucking Forest won it. Or when FSU and Clemson we’re winning the division with a 6-2 conference record. I get that that FSU is down. But TOB or any other coach weren’t exactly coaching in a super tough ACC and they couldn’t muster back to back winning ACC season. Now we’re doing a better job of capitalizing on the down ACC and winning games we should win imo. I’d love to be even better than we are, obviously. But I feel good about where the program is and the trajectory it is on.

It shouldn’t be an either/or proposition but...sure TOB beat some ranked teams and had upsets. He also had some befuddling and embarrassing losses...much more so than DD. So with DD we have more consistency vs low level teams but few big wins. In previous regimes we’ve had major wtf losses in addition to the shocking upset wins. I prefer the consistency of DD and the feeling that we’re very stable and improving.

[Edited on September 9, 2019 at 3:30 PM. Reason : A]

9/9/2019 3:27:32 PM

hey now
Indianapolis Jones
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"
You put it into better words than I ever could have. Can I buy you an Old Tuffy sometime?"


We used to schedule shitty and go 6- 6.

[Edited on September 9, 2019 at 3:36 PM. Reason : D]

9/9/2019 3:35:11 PM

TreeTwista10
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I found it interesting that TOB was 2-0 against ranked FSU teams and 0-4 against unranked FSU teams.

9/9/2019 3:47:11 PM

MONGO
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"I prefer the consistency of DD and the feeling that we’re very stable and improving."


100% agree. Would think the talent/recruiting would uptick as we become more consistent, which will allow us to win the close games we've had against Clemson/FSU.

I just have a tough time trying to evaluate how much better we're improving, given our OOC and ACC schedule. For example, I get and appreciate that stat that says we've hit 5+ wins in the last two years from the first time since the early 90's... Does that actually mean we've had the 2 best seasons in 30 years? I wasn't a state fan since the late 2000's, so I honestly can't tell. I would have thought Philip River's last two seasons were better/more enjoyable (3OT vs OSU, ND gator bowl, 9-0 start to 2002, Kansas blowout to send off Phil's career) but I wasn't a state fan at the time, so I can't tell. I'd say it is comparable to TOB's best two years (2010-2011).

EDIT:

Bill Connelly has plotted NC State's S&P percentile rating throughout our program's history - it's an interesting comparison. Would be interested in what you all think. S&P really likes what DD has done so far.

https://www.backingthepack.com/nc-state-football/2019/8/13/20804770/a-trip-through-nc-state-football-history-in-the-eyes-of-s-p

[Edited on September 9, 2019 at 4:13 PM. Reason : Added Bill Connelly Link]

9/9/2019 4:12:46 PM

horosho
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Imagine what happens when DD gets a generational player like River or Wilson. State will really be in business.

9/9/2019 5:32:59 PM

dmspack
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^^ the problem with those Rivers and Wilson teams is that they still lost the wtf games to UVa or MD or whoever. They weren’t immune to that at all. On paper they probably were better but it didn’t necessarily translate to the results. Chalk that up to coaching or dumb luck.

Also yes the acc is weak outside of Clemson. But it was hardly a juggernaut for all of TOB or Chuck’s time at State. We failed to capitalize on the weak conference under those guys. The Atlantic is nearly impossible to win with Clemson right now. But it hasn’t always been the case. Those later Bowden teams weren’t that good at FSU and Clemson was mediocre back then. We don’t have to pretend that TOB was going 4-4 in a super hard division.

9/9/2019 5:54:01 PM

MONGO
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Comparing all ACC losses and wins against teams with greater than 5 or more wins in years 4-6 between TOB and DD:

2010 notable wins: FSU (6-2 in the ACC, 17th)
2010 losses: Clemson (finished 4-4 in the ACC, unranked in the final AP poll), Maryland (5-3, 23rd overall), and Virginia Tech (8-0, 16th).


2011 notable wins: UVA (5-3, UR) and Clemson (6-2, 22)
2011 losses: Wake (5-3, UR), GT (5-3, UR), FSU (5-3, 23rd), and BC (3-5, UR).

2012 notable wins: FSU (7-1, 10th)
2012 losses: Miami (5-3, UR), UNC (5-3, UR), UVA (2-6, UR), Clemson (7-1, 11th)

----

2016 notable wins: UNC (5-3, UR)
2016 losses: Clemson (7-1, 1st), Louisville (7-1, 21st), FSU (5-3, 19th), Miami (5-3, 20th)


2017 notable wins: N/A, all wins were against teams with 4 wins or less
2017 losses: Clemson (7-1, 4th), Wake (4-4, UR)


2018 notable wins: N/A, all wins were against teams with 4 wins or less
2018 losses: Clemson (8-0, 1st), Wake (3-5, UR), Cuse (6-2, 15th)

---

So (by my count):
- TOB had to play 12 teams that finished with a wining record in the ACC (vs 8 for DD)
- TOB had to play 7 teams that were ranked in the final AP poll (same as DD)
- TOB had to play 9 games against teams with 5 or more ACC wins in his last two years (vs 3 for DD, 2 of which were against Clemson)

IDK. This is argument is flawed anyways because the more state wins, the more losses other teams in our division naturally accrue, which will cause skeptics like myself to devalue the wins. Also doesn't factor in close losses (FSU/Clemson in 2016, Clemson in 2017, others I may have missed).

Whatever. I just think it's worth bringing up that (IMO) the ACC has taken a step back, except for Clemson and NCSU. Does this mean that we've taken a step forward or just stayed consistent? Hard to tell.

9/10/2019 8:28:29 AM

LudaChris
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The ACC is weak right now, no one is really denying that in the slightest, but I think you could argue it's been top heavy for a long time now. There has always been 1 big dog, then 2-3 teams right behind them, few middling teams, and then some bottom-feeders.

The problem right now is that Clemson, a top 2 program, has such a unique talent gap that the ACC hasn't really seen since FSU was dominating it early on when they first joined.

Each year you're likely to see the following:
Clemson being the top dog(likely undefeated or 1 loss), a Coastal champ that feeds off a weak Coastal division with 9-10 wins(and a likely top 25 ranking), and then maybe 1 more team in the Atlantic that beats up on the rest of the Atlantic.

For 2 years it was Clemson and then NC State was #2, last year the #2 team was the Cuse/NC State battle, and I think many believe that it'll be similar this year.

We want "quality" wins, but honestly, look at our schedule, how many quality win opportunities do you see? Clemson is a behemoth that we are going to be double-digit dogs to, we're not beating them so take that one off the list. Is Cuse going to be a quality win after they start the season 1-2 with 2 big losses? Is Wake or BC going to play themselves into being a quality W? Is UNC, UL, GT, or FSU?

I'd rather have a terrible SOS and finish with 9-10 wins than be UofSC going against a top 10 SOS and ending up 4-8.

9/10/2019 9:08:58 AM

xienze
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"TOB was 1-14 against the Atlantic on the road! Insane. "


That one win was only because Maryland's game-winning FG doinked off the upright. And still UNC fans will insist we fired him because of the one time he lost to them.

Quote :
"I'd rather have a terrible SOS and finish with 9-10 wins than be UofSC going against a top 10 SOS and ending up 4-8."


Yeah I dunno what people are expecting with our scheduling. Wanna go the UVA route of a few years ago where we schedule big teams OOC and lose to every single one of them? Until we're the kind of team that has a floor of 8-9 wins year in and year out we benefit greatly from having a weak OOC and trying to run up the total. It helps establish momentum for the program and give coaches something to show recruits.

9/10/2019 9:55:54 AM

dmspack
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^yup, that UVA style schedule is what gets coaches fired. no need to go over board in OOC scheduling, i like our philosophy just fine.

9/10/2019 11:20:08 AM

justinh524
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We should only play top 15 OOC games and all our games should be at 8PM.

9/10/2019 3:31:49 PM

MONGO
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I'm probably in the minority on this (and this is absolutely coming from a fan perspective), but I'd prefer we play better teams in the OOC (like, 1-2 competitive games per year). I've yet to watch a complete game this season because we're playing teams that aren't close to us talent wise. Didn't watch the second half of the ECU game, didn't bother watching the Western Carolina game. I'll tune in for WVU and Ball State but if those games go as predicted, I don't think I'll watch a full game until FSU... 1 month into the season.

I get it's better program-wise to schedule cupcakes, but shit's boring and I'm a fan that wants to watch competitive games.

9/11/2019 8:28:54 AM

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Indianapolis Jones
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"I don't think I'll watch a full game until FSU... 1 month into the season."


LOL people act like they have better shit to do.

9/11/2019 8:42:37 AM

LudaChris
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"I've yet to watch a complete game this season because we're playing teams that aren't close to us talent wise."


Luckily you aren't a Clemson fan, or you'd only be able to watch 1 game a season before the CFP starts.

WVU should match the decent team criteria, not our fault they were ranked last year and we had a hurricane and now they're bad.

I'd rather see us roll over a G5 team like ECU than watch us struggle and lose to a team like South Carolina a few years ago.

9/11/2019 9:59:55 AM

dmspack
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"I'll tune in for WVU and Ball State but if those games go as predicted, I don't think I'll watch a full game until FSU... 1 month into the season."


The WV game is a 7 point spread. Don’t act like we’re expected to win by 3 TDs. It’s a road game vs a P5 team, for most fans that’s exciting enough. Also, FSU looks a like a dumpster fire so if WV doesn’t excite you, I don’t know how FSU would be any different.

Our scheduling is fine. 1 P5 every year (last year with a hurricane canceling a game was different), generally 1 FCS, and 2 G5 teams. No need to schedule 2 P5 games OOC, giving us 10 total.

I’m all for higher profile games, but we don’t need to be in a position where we’re going 2-2 OOC. In the future we have games with Miss St, Vandy, Cincy, ND, BYU scheduled.

I’d rather go 10-2 vs a shitty schedule than 7-5 vs a hard schedule.

[Edited on September 11, 2019 at 10:14 AM. Reason : A]

9/11/2019 10:13:49 AM

Bullet
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(i imagine future recruits would too)

9/11/2019 10:24:16 AM

dmspack
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^yup.

Squeak into a bowl vs a hard schedule and people will be begging for him to be fired. Winning 9 (hopefully more) games vs weaker schedule and we’re more content, we’re possibly ranked. More wins is better than less wins. Or fewer wins. Whatever.

9/11/2019 11:07:42 AM

justinh524
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We should play Alabama 4 times a year, at a minimum.

9/11/2019 6:09:31 PM

dmspack
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Counting the playoff, we could do it 5 times.

9/11/2019 6:54:38 PM

horosho
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We should consistently schedule Duke and Maryland OOC. I'd love real OOC rivalry games instead of directional Carolina.

9/11/2019 8:10:10 PM

justinh524
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No, we should never play Maryland again in anything. Ever.

9/11/2019 8:26:15 PM

dmspack
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OOC schedules are set a decade in advance. So, yeah...we can get that State/Duke matchup in 2042.

And no, let’s not schedule Maryland. That’s boring.

9/11/2019 8:28:42 PM

MONGO
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Ah I might have overlooked WVU. Was more excited for the FSU game because it's at least a conference match-up (plus I'm interested in how we match up against their passing attack).

I'd think/hope that recruits would be able to realize the difference between 10-2 vs 9-3 with a loss to an SEC team, but who knows. I'd love to schedule Duke OOC so we'd play the big four every year.

Schedule's are set so far in advance, this is a moot point and I know I've derailed long enough. To summarize my thoughts on DD, for posterity's sake:

- Impressed with his job so far (I was down on him prior to the 2017 season, back when I think only Earl had his back)
- Over the last 3 years (with his recruits) he takes care of business against teams he should beat (20-7 against UR teams)
- During the same time period, he has struggled to win games against teams he shouldn't beat (2-7 vs ranked teams)
- I'm hoping for 7-8 wins in a rebuilding year, which is a sign of a great program
- I (personally) have a hard time evaluating how much of his success the last two years were due to not playing anyone of note outside of Clemson in the ACC and how much of it was due to us taking a step forward

9/12/2019 7:50:46 AM

wdprice3
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No one's asking to play Alabama 5 games/season. But NCAACF really needs a realigning to improve scheduling.

Ultimately, P5 schools should play P5 schools. There's a huge range there alone. And either make a cupcake game pre-season or allow 1 non-P5/season or so.

The purpose of sports is entertainment. It's not entertaining to watch JMU, BSU, etc. vs in almost every game against a P5 school.

9/12/2019 8:11:42 AM

dmspack
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^ financially, fcs programs and g5 programs need games vs P5 programs.

9/12/2019 8:18:06 AM

wdprice3
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Not a P5 problem specifically. There's only so much talent and money to go around. There's probably far too many programs given the supply of talent and money, which is true on every level of every sport, but perhaps college is the most oversaturated there is

9/12/2019 8:23:07 AM

rwoody
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"p5 should only play p5" is a pretty hot take

9/12/2019 8:39:33 AM

dmspack
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I agree that there’s only so much talent to go around. But money? College sports are a billion dollar industry. There’s a huge portion of that concentrated in the upper tier and it’s not necessarily the job of the P5 to prop up lower divisions. But the money is without a doubt there to do it.

9/12/2019 8:43:04 AM

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