tell me about Florence

9/5/2018 2:44:42 PM

https://brentroad.com/message_section.aspx?section=1

9/5/2018 4:45:49 PM

Progressive

9/5/2018 4:45:51 PM

^^^ Ask again in about 4 days. As for potential impacts to the US, this far out, everything is a wild guess.

9/5/2018 5:07:01 PM

it'll be here next Saturday

your WV tix are basically worthless now, so i'll take them off your hands

[Edited on September 5, 2018 at 6:09 PM. Reason : ]

9/5/2018 6:08:48 PM

Dont worry about florence.

Check out http://spaghettimodels.com

I'd pay more attention to invest 92.

My gut feeling is that this year isn't the year of big storms in the Atlantic. I think it will be a relatively quiet year.

Now, granted, all it takes is one, but I'm not really worried this year.

God, I hope I'm not wrong

[Edited on September 5, 2018 at 8:21 PM. Reason : ]

9/5/2018 8:18:52 PM

^what makes you say it shouldn't be a big year?



Aren't ocean temperatures on the Atlantic seaboard basically hitting record highs right now?
(not that there aren't a ton of other factors that affect hurricanes too.)

9/6/2018 7:41:39 AM

edit:
holy shit, maybe I'm totally talking out my ass:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/06/18/the-water-in-the-tropical-atlantic-is-the-coldest-in-decades-that-may-stymie-hurricane-season/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5fffdeb544e6

9/6/2018 8:26:22 AM

9/6/2018 10:12:54 AM

^^^there is a good chance of el Nino this fall, the sst are cooler, and its drier in Africa

9/6/2018 11:49:03 AM

It's the north Atlantic that's so warm.

9/6/2018 1:56:47 PM

Hmmm, forecasts now have Florence not turning northward.

9/6/2018 2:26:38 PM

Quote :

"what makes you say it shouldn't be a big year?"

well this is the 8th year on record with zero named storms in the month of August, so it's obviously been a slow year so far

9/6/2018 2:32:10 PM

^^ SOME forecasts.

About half have it turning

9/6/2018 4:27:12 PM

It's too soon to know fuck all about Florence.

9/6/2018 6:37:20 PM

9/7/2018 12:17:43 PM

I’m going to the beach next week. So yeah plan on a direct hit to the NC coast

9/7/2018 1:12:14 PM

Ok, so, maybe we need to watch Florence. Geez.
I'm hoping if I get worried about it too soon it'll help it go out to sea!

9/7/2018 1:32:07 PM

Ruh roh, better pay attention to Flo.

9/7/2018 8:26:32 PM

9/7/2018 10:09:06 PM

the prediction that has it going through Florida, and Canada, seems like a realistic one.

9/7/2018 10:36:31 PM

[Edited on September 8, 2018 at 1:35 AM. Reason : E]

9/8/2018 1:31:13 AM

This better not fuck up my WVU weekend.

9/8/2018 8:45:48 AM

[Edited on September 8, 2018 at 10:41 AM. Reason : s]

9/8/2018 10:41:12 AM

Supposed to go tent camping on Shackleford Banks next Saturday with my kids and their Boy Scout troop. Not looking so promising now!

9/8/2018 11:38:20 AM

Saturday probably wont be bad. The time frame is Wed/Thur/Fri. By Saturday it should be a normal day. Although, depending on destruction, Shack might not be open to the public.

9/8/2018 2:49:46 PM

Just one model, but this would suck.

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1038499420432678912

9/8/2018 3:11:45 PM

^^Yea I understand the storm itself might be gone, but getting their might be a problem. Power might be out to get to the ferry, get gas, shit like that.

9/8/2018 4:15:57 PM

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6317fea058304bc0bb12d01428c8ccffc3380917e6c8b310ab085614aeadc984.gif?w=800&h=510

9/8/2018 7:25:26 PM

Ok, so predicting almost 2 feet of rain because the system will stall. Hwy 70 will be flooded, probably worse than Matthew

9/9/2018 12:12:19 AM

Doesn't seem like the GFS model is ever right.

9/9/2018 12:49:16 AM

This is the first real hurricane chance since I’ve owned a house and I’m seriously worried a tree might fall in the house

9/9/2018 12:50:32 AM

^^It's best to look at all the models and just watch the trends. Normally it falls somewhere in the middle of the GFS, UK, EURO, and CMC.

Right now it is trending for a near Wilmington hit. Of course, that could change based on many different factors, but for now, it's looking to go around there.

That put everyone just north of Wilmington (Onslow and Carteret County) in a really bad place. Similar to when Fran hit in 1996. Wilmington landfall, since the worst part of the storm (aside from the actual eyewall) is the upper right-hand quadrant, will put that quadrant right over us here in Carteret County.

One thing that is going to be good for us is the fact that it has been so dry the past couple of weeks (although there is a chance of rain the rest of the week), so the ground isn't already saturated with rain to help with trees being uprooted.

The scary thing, they are calling for it to stall right as soon as it makes landfall and calling for almost 2 feet of rain. That means there will be horrible flooding. That is about 12 inches more rain than many places received during Hurricane Matthew. There is a good chance that the roads to ENC will be cut off, which could cause a potential for resources not making it here.

Anyway, it's still 4 days out, and anything can change. As of right now though, it's important to stay alert and be prepared.

9/9/2018 9:18:54 AM

Godspeed to all my homes in Onslow county. I'll pour one out for you

9/9/2018 9:32:46 AM

won't that just add to the flooding?

[Edited on September 9, 2018 at 9:40 AM. Reason : come on shawna, think...]

9/9/2018 9:40:26 AM

Well I'm not driving there to pour it out for them. I'll pour it out in my sink in the privacy of my own home.

9/9/2018 9:44:53 AM

Well this is just looking worse and worse

9/9/2018 1:00:37 PM

It's not looking good. No need to panic, whatever happens will happen. It's just important to be prepared and to stay alert. Have a plan in place and be aware of what is happening. Honestly, as much as hurricane parties are fun, they are really only fun during a max of cat 2 maybe a weaker cat 3. If things go bad, you're going to want to be sober.

While I have a stock of alcohol ready in case things are going well, I probably won't start drinking until the worst is over. Last thing I want is to be piss drunk and have to get out fast.

Be aware of where the 100 year and 500 year flood zones are, if you are in any of those in ENC, you need to be prepared for rising water.

When it hits, just sit back and enjoy the ride. It's going to be crazy weather that we haven't seen in our lifetimes. Last time a cat 4 storm hit NC was Hazel in the 50s. So if things are going as they are predicting, we're in for a wild ride.

9/9/2018 1:27:17 PM

I'm more worried about the older power infrastructure that hasn't been altered since Fran. North East Raleigh has power flashes in the most minor of summer and winter storms. Seriously debating hitting buy on a 3500-5000W generator on amazon right now while I can still get it here in time.

9/9/2018 2:50:06 PM

We have just basically prepared for a week long camping trip. I wish a generator was in our budget, one day it will be, but not this year. Instead were just gonna grill all the stuff in the freezer and use battery operated fans!

Maybe I'll get on the news again!

https://youtu.be/nNS5V5SmtWQ

[Edited on September 9, 2018 at 2:55 PM. Reason : ]

9/9/2018 2:53:23 PM

^lol

9/9/2018 3:30:53 PM

I hope the hurricane doesn’t hit us. That is my preference.

9/9/2018 3:32:35 PM

^^^Haha! Well played!

I love a good spoof at the expense of the local news.

Yeah, being a property owner in the line of a major storm changes your perspective quite a bit from a college student hoping for some wind, rain, canceled classes, and an excuse to get drunk.

9/9/2018 3:36:48 PM

9/9/2018 3:47:02 PM

I went ahead and cleared some dead trees this weekend, it's been on my to do list for awhile but this was a good enough reason to go ahead and do it

9/9/2018 4:58:20 PM

Guidance shifted back slightly to the west. Come on, GFS!

9/9/2018 5:00:34 PM

I guess I'll have to go to the grocery store at some point this week

9/9/2018 5:04:21 PM

Cat 4 at landfall. fuck me

9/9/2018 6:14:19 PM

Hurricane Florence is developing faster now. The eye is defined and it will help the storm get stronger. All the global models are tight between the NC/SC border and Hatteras. As of right now the hurricane force winds extend 25 miles out from the eye and tropical storm force winds extend 125 miles from the eye. This will only expand as the storm grows and gets stronger.
The storm is predicted to be a healthy category 4 hurricane at landfall with 140 mile winds. It is quickly growing. Went from 50 mph to 90 mph in no time at all.

This is real life. Barring any significant weather event, it's coming. It's going to be rough.

[Edited on September 9, 2018 at 11:21 PM. Reason : ]

9/9/2018 11:20:20 PM

SET 'EM UP!

9/10/2018 12:19:18 AM