I wrote-in Bernie in 2016, but only because California was a lock. If I was in NC at the time there is no way I would have taken that risk.

6/8/2020 4:12:48 PM

A lot of the people involved in 2018 were "democrats" running on a decade old green party platform. Even Bernie ran on a platform that was very similar to Stein 2012. Him, AOC, and many of the justice democrats in congress have much more in common with the green party platform than they do with the policies Biden and Pelosi stand for.




If it was still 2012, I would recommend this read
https://www.amazon.com/Obama-Romney-Stein-Johnson-Issues/dp/1479149225
Theres gotta be a better way for people to find out about presidential candidates besides watching "last week tonight".

6/8/2020 4:28:27 PM

Anyone who cares to find out already has the tools to do it easily. The bigger societal issue is getting them to care, and that means making it worthwhile to vote 3rd party.

Support progressive democrats now who want to move to RCV so that you can better support 3rd party candidates later.

6/8/2020 4:41:08 PM

Reign in drone strikes? Absolutely. Say we'll never consider using them again? Dumb

6/8/2020 5:37:31 PM

Defund and Abolish the Military amirite

6/8/2020 8:33:46 PM

lol, while we're on it, I do think running on a nebulous phrase like 'defund the police' isn't a sound idea.

6/8/2020 8:45:12 PM

I thought it would also be hard to laugh off and dismiss the passionately stated goals of a huge movement

6/8/2020 10:43:00 PM

I'm not laughing it off or dismissing it, I'm saying it's nebulous. If I ask 10 different people what 'defund the police' means, I'm going g to get 10 different answers

6/8/2020 10:52:00 PM

Honestly nebulous is very on brand for Dems and Biden

6/8/2020 11:09:35 PM

Okay, and? Biden wasn't my candidate of choice. I hate when people campaign on pithy slogans. All campaigns are guilty of this shit and if drives me bonkers. I mean, it's partly their fault but it's also the fault of the media and the average voter. People want bumper sticker slogans and not policy papers

I think 'defund the police' in particular because A LOT of people are going to take it as 'fully eliminate the police' which polls terribly

6/8/2020 11:16:53 PM

Fair point, I withdraw

[Edited on June 8, 2020 at 11:28 PM. Reason : I think I'm tired misunderstood my bad]

6/8/2020 11:28:02 PM

Quote :

"I do think running on a nebulous phrase like 'defund the police' isn't a sound idea."

Who is running on that?

6/9/2020 11:27:32 AM

Twitter. That’s it.

https://twitter.com/samstein/status/1270364947680301062?s=21

This is fascinating — particularly the Ro Khanna part. Bush, regrettably is actually pretty popular broadly now. It’s insane but true. Electorally it would all but assure the suburbs wipe out Trump.

I don’t think it’ll happen regardless, though.

6/9/2020 11:59:47 AM

Biden isn't running on it, but Twitter and some progressive politicians think he should.

6/9/2020 12:11:50 PM

I don't see how you can think white people in the suburbs won't favor harsh crackdowns and want tough on crime policing and get behind a "law and order" pro-police message. They are in the suburbs for a reason.

Where is the polling on that?

Quote :

"I think 'defund the police' in particular because A LOT of people are going to take it as 'fully eliminate the police' which polls terribly"

Well obviously and it would be misleading to ask someone "Are you in favor of defunding/dismantling/abolishing the police?" without thoroughly explaining to them how law enforcement would still exist under a new system. People think it means no law enforcement. Thats not an honest conversation. I'd love to see how people polled after education on the alternative to police.

but yeah, of course the democrats won't get behind it and of course the republicans will accuse them of all being behind it. FOXNEWS makes Joe Biden sound like a candidate I could support.

6/9/2020 4:46:24 PM

Yes, thank you for explaining to me what nebulous means.

6/9/2020 4:49:19 PM

Quote :

" I don't see how you can think white people in the suburbs won't favor harsh crackdowns and want tough on crime policing and get behind a "law and order" pro-police message. They are in the suburbs for a reason."

Because there is empirical evidence the GOP got massacred there in 2018 running on “caravan” nonsense. Polling in 2020 confirms that Trump is getting utterly destroyed when it comes to suburban women and is even polling 50/50 to behind among college-educated men. NoVa is essentially suburban hell for days and has flipped more dramatically than any plane in the entire country in three cycles.

What actual evidence do you have to counter other than “you plebes are too stupid to understand Trumps 37,456-D chess.”

[Edited on June 9, 2020 at 6:35 PM. Reason : And “White flight” is literally three generations ago. Most urban centers are as “safe” now]

6/9/2020 6:33:07 PM

A lot of Trump voters stayed home in 2018. Turnout being lower than 2016 is evidence of that. Maybe they will stay home again but a midterm election cannot be used as evidence of that. I think GOP senators have evidence because how else can you explain their refusal to criticize Trump or than wanting to share his spoils at the ballot box?

You're basing things on NOVA which is an establishment hive and a blue Hillary state. I don't think things have flipped but shifted like tectonic drift. Democrats are where Romney Mccain and bush were while the GOP is at the bottom of the ocean. Bush Mccain Romney/Obama Clinton Biden is not a flip.

6/10/2020 4:12:04 AM

Just say you’re “unskewing” the polls. I can ignore you quicker.

On a more serious note, there are two different worlds when it comes to voting in this county and the scenes out of Atlanta were a disgrace. We NEED voting to be more equitable and once this nightmare is over we must have 50 state access to vote by mail. Period. It’s the only way to truly make things fair.

[Edited on June 10, 2020 at 8:09 AM. Reason : X]

6/10/2020 8:05:56 AM

Posted this in the Trump cred thread but also belongs here:

6/13/2020 11:43:10 AM

A few things here in reality:

- Biden is enjoying what will be his high point of the general election. National polling and state polling right now consistent with a pretty large electoral college win and largest % popular vote margin in a generation (since Reagan?)

- The race will tighten as the economy improved and people ignore COVID death totals chasing Trumps red herrings.

- Biden is in a much better position taking national and state polling, favorability numbers and political climate than Clinton was at any time in 2016.

- People are scared to say he is the massive favorite to win because of 2016 PTSD.

- Biden’s state polling crosstabs are way more encouraging than any other piece. He’s lost ground with slightly conservative-leaning Hispanics in states he is locked in to one way or another and has made inroads with women (at historical levels) and even older, lower educated whites. If he even slices off a 1/2 point in the Rust Belt with those numbers the increase in suburban women likely wins PA and MI at the very least.

6/17/2020 11:44:07 AM

^His connection to Obama and the intensity of the BLM movement also likely mean higher African American turnout compared to 2016.

6/18/2020 2:28:07 PM

Just got back from the rally...

So he's definitely "still got it" in regards to interacting with the crowd on a personal level. The "tough hombre" story is a perfect example of his entire campaign strategy. Its a fictitious but believable story that capitalizes on the raw emotion. So we have someone who can read into the deepest fears of a certain subset of the population, convert those fears and anxieties into horror stories, and then articulate how the opposition's policies would contribute to those stories coming true and how his policies prevent them. Wash and repeat that strategy on every issue.

If you think this guy is "incoherent" or "brain dead", you're underestimating him at least on delivery. Things like the walking around acting and the glass of water trick cannot be executed by "handlers". Its both well thought out and well-executed. A lot of it might even be done off the cuff and add the fact that he has the stamina to sustain that energy for hours. Relatively speaking (because thats the only context that matters), it is cognitively "sharp".

With that said, do not conflate competent messaging with perceived morality. One can be competent at verbally delivering a message in a clear, concise way and ALSO be a piece of shit at the same time. Miss me with any accusations of "liking him","defending him", or anything like that.

6/20/2020 9:57:20 PM

so trump is a genius because he can fool a bunch of not-so-smart people

6/20/2020 10:09:36 PM

My golden Orange man took a sip of water with one hand.

Crown him.

6/20/2020 11:11:25 PM

Quote :

"glass of water trick"

I missed the rally. Could you describe this trick for me? I love magic.

6/21/2020 1:44:42 AM

Lol, I actually just read through the Earl post and it’s great. A parody of every MAGA on twitter. Just spot on.

Look at my big normal standing president working the crowd. Owning the libs by showing he can drink water and walk.

6/21/2020 10:00:37 AM

And for my next trick, watch me make this ham sammich disappear.....nom nom nom.......


Earl:

6/22/2020 1:40:34 AM

Anybody checked out Jo Jorgensen? Her platform is ludicrously laid out at this point. Her solution to health care in this country is to reduce paperwork? Lol.

6/22/2020 8:54:46 AM

This sis really Trump cred but since Earl started it here

Trump talked about the ramp for FOURTEEN minutes!

Quote :

"As reporters, we tend to spend a lot of time editing what Donald Trump says down to a few key quotes. Some readers think we do that to make him look bad, when in fact it makes him sound way more like a normal person. Here is Trump, unedited, in full https://t.co/ecHMVzkx83"

6/22/2020 10:44:09 AM

Saw multiple outlets going live with trumps rally on social media but none went live with the Obama Biden stream. I still haven’t seen the stream show up on any of my feeds, only certain clips. I really can’t figure out how the Biden campaign is dropping the ball here so much...

6/23/2020 11:13:48 PM

^^ I watched it a couple of days ago, and it is surreal. Here are the full 14 minutes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdiqyKm0UwU

He is truly a showman, and that's all he is. The million little antics he did in those 14 minutes... either a standup comedian/showman would do, or a toddler.

6/24/2020 1:56:31 AM

Quote :

"Look at my big normal standing president working the crowd."

It only works because the media and you people spent an entire week diagnosing him with all sorts of diseases. Thats the only reason him doing normal things comes off as a miracle. You lowered the bar. He's just and idiot. Stop pretending he can't walk or can't talk or is on the cusp of a vegetative state.

6/24/2020 2:09:38 AM

Quote :

" I really can’t figure out how the Biden campaign is dropping the ball here so much..."

Biden's best possible move is to remain quiet until at least September.

6/24/2020 2:29:58 PM

dropping the ball into really good poll numbers

6/24/2020 2:37:18 PM

^^ I made the remark to my wife over the weekend that Biden is running a 19th-century presidential political campaign in the 21st century, and he's going to win doing it.

6/24/2020 3:34:48 PM

I am however getting TONS of web and mobile ads from the Biden campaign. Enough not to forget him, but not so much that he can be questioned about it.

6/25/2020 12:03:45 AM

https://twitter.com/theplumlinegs/status/1276082086869426176?s=21

Kind of crazy from a A+ and slight R-lean house effect 538 rated pollster.

As always, it’s only a point in time and things will tighten some as Trump gains back some of the white, low education level vote share (especially because Biden’s support is at only 50 — which is good but indicative of some Trump skeptical but reliable GOP voters being undecided)... but these are absolutely landslide type state level polling numbers. 400+ electoral votes.

If NC, AZ and FL look like that Biden could win GA and TX even. Absolutely insane.

[Edited on June 25, 2020 at 6:47 AM. Reason : As of today, this isn’t a fair fight]

6/25/2020 6:45:34 AM

What concerns me is that even if Blue does win, which I'm still not 100% convinced of, probably due to 2016 PTSD, Trump's base will say that the election was rigged due to mail-in voting/deep state/HRC and Pelosi take coup, etc.

November to January could be a very tumultuous time.

6/25/2020 8:28:57 AM

Quote :

"Biden's best possible move is to remain quiet until at least September"

Yah I gave him shit for being so quiet during the pandemic but apparently it's working

6/25/2020 8:50:45 AM

^ my concern is that he's not really being quiet though. He's doing a lot of public live streams but you really have to dig to find them. Meanwhile trump sneezes weird and it's world news. I'm just worried when people want to start hearing from biden, theyre not going to be able to because watching Biden isn't a spectacle and he doesn't get the front and center coverage trump gets.

6/25/2020 9:56:28 AM

Electorally it's a good strategy. Presidentially it's bad. Just lucky that this is an election more AGAINST the incumbent then for Biden.

Although I'll admit my comments are hypothetical for someone not speaking up. I'm not seeking out news of Biden's comments or watching his streams, so maybe he's showing super strong leadership and not getting covered in my news sources.

[Edited on June 25, 2020 at 10:00 AM. Reason : ^there you go. Jinx? ]

6/25/2020 9:59:41 AM

^x5 a minor correction and some more info

Quote :

"The shift among white voters is concentrated among young and col+ white voters, but it extends to older and white voters without a degree, as well. Maybe more surprising: virtually zero change among nonwhite voters, despite attention on racial issues The voters who don't back Trump/Biden do lean GOP by registration/party ID. They voted for Trump in '16 by a 34-20 margin, as well. But they're undecided for a reason: Trump's approval rating among this group is 29-56, and he's got a long way to go toward winning them And at the moment, there are limits to what Trump can hope to extract out of the electorate right now. 55% of registered voters said there was "almost no chance" they would support him."

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1276096509122162688?s=19
Link is to first part, rest is threaded

6/25/2020 10:40:14 AM

Quote :

"?? FOX NEWS POLL ?? FL: Biden 49, Trump 40 GA: Biden 47, Trump 45 NC: Biden 47, Trump 45 TX: Biden 45, Trump 44"

6/25/2020 6:22:42 PM

Got my first fb notification on Biden. He made some clear and strong commentary on trumps abysmal coronavirus response and how trump is trying to end preexisting conditions protection during the pandemic. He was talking a little slow but still sounded very cogent (relatively speaking). It was good overall imo.

If elections were held today this is what the polls look like:

6/25/2020 9:38:00 PM

https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/1276329617989697536?s=21

Is it too much to expect that during a debate when this comes up Biden will be prepared enough and the media to be fair enough to finally call him out on this? In three years literally only Daniel Dale has called out this egregious lie.

6/25/2020 9:48:20 PM

Blue Texas would be a wet dream

Mostly due to schadenfreude

[Edited on June 25, 2020 at 10:11 PM. Reason : And yeah no way it's gonna be that lopsided ]

6/25/2020 10:10:50 PM

Yeah west texas is seriously a wtf type thing. Gotta be 90-10 out there for trump. Even in urban centers, some upstounding or smart looking folks are red af. Too much distrust of fed government to turn blue yet. Prob another decade away

6/25/2020 11:40:44 PM

"distrust the fed govt" and "vote for Trump" in the same person can just be simplified to "dumb"

6/25/2020 11:46:30 PM

Quote :

"still sounded very cogent (relatively speaking). It was good overall imo."

one candidate drinks a cup of water and walks and his base applauds. the other candidate sounds cognet, and the other side notes that as a favorable factor.

We're really in dire straights here. I pray for much higher bars during future elections.

6/26/2020 1:52:52 PM