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qntmfred
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Quote :
"Payments to more people -> more competition for basic goods and services -> costs of those goods go up to match demand -> UBI payments cease to yield substantial enough income for those on the lower tier"


UBI or not, we need to produce sufficient basic goods and services to meet the needs of the population. pricing for these basic goods and services is almost entirely a function of the efficiency of our supply chains, production processes and distribution networks. if we're efficiently producing enough of what people need to survive, UBI does NOT cause inflation, especially a UBI that is paid for (for example by a VAT as taxes essentially pull money out of circulation). Same reason nobody talks about minimum wage increases being inflationary. The benefits of UBI for society far outpaces any potential negatives. The Expanded Child Tax Credit of 2021 lifted millions of children out of poverty. Smart investments in our people are good things to do, period. The majority of inflation we've been experiencing is caused by ongoing global supply chain disruptions, increased corporate profits, and yes some via monetary policy over the last 2 years.



this thread isn't about UBI tho. happy to move this conversation to another thread if you like.

I also bumped another thread about 3rd parties to talk about the Forward Party for those who were commenting.

[Edited on July 29, 2022 at 2:36 PM. Reason : y'all can go back to talking about Biden vs Trump/DeSantis here ig]

7/29/2022 2:33:06 PM

Geppetto
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I'll address it here and then move to the other thread. After all, TWW is the interwebs and I can't allow for a post to look like it went unanswered.

Quote :
"UBI or not, we need to produce sufficient basic goods and services to meet the needs of the population. pricing for these basic goods and services is almost entirely a function of the efficiency of our supply chains, production processes and distribution networks."


Yes, I agree that major cost inputs are a major factor of pricing. Efficiency is part of it but there are also maximum thresholds for efficiency, based on existing technological states. That's a realistic barrier that can't be ignored. And sure, it improves and as it does total factor productivity moves upwward, often increasing profitability but not necessarily having an impact on prices e.g. record profitability rather than slashing prices. Put differently, TFP impacts economic growth not consumer prices. See historical TFP increases compared to prices of essentially everything over time.


Quote :
"if we're efficiently producing enough of what people need to survive, UBI does NOT cause inflation, especially a UBI that is paid for (for example by a VAT as taxes essentially pull money out of circulation)."


UBI still can, and would likely, cause inflation in this scenario. Unless we're nationalizing production and making sure there are enough goods for everyone, companies are incentivized to maximize profits and will temper supply and raise prices when more individuals demand goods. OPEC could easily release the flood gates on oil right now, but they don't, because low supply + high demand is good for them. This has nothing to do with the efficiency. The VAT example is also flawed. 1) Stimulus checks create demand and can spur inflation. These checks are paid by taxes. It's the same principle here. 2) VAT on goods will increase the price of items, which consumers will view as inflation, even if it isn't technically so.


Quote :
"Same reason nobody talks about minimum wage increases being inflationary."


Except for people do talk about that as a reason to not have an increased national wage or a minimum wage at all. It's spoken less so about minimum wage because it's a few extra dollars per hour and is taxed income, so the impact is pretty small. Recent wage increases in a tight labor market have certainly gotten the lion's share of the inflationary discussion, but people do talk about minimum wage and inflation because it creates more demand for basic services/goods that all people need. Demand that can't readjust overnight and in turn causes inflation.

Quote :
"The benefits of UBI for society far outpaces any potential negatives. The Expanded Child Tax Credit of 2021 lifted millions of children out of poverty. Smart investments in our people are good things to do, period. The majority of inflation we've been experiencing is caused by ongoing global supply chain disruptions, increased corporate profits, and yes some via monetary policy over the last 2 years. "


These things don't go away with UBI; they're exacerbated. I've expressed the impact on corporate profits and monetary policy above.

7/29/2022 4:24:19 PM

bbehe
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So qntm is just going to ignore the fraud allegations about the Green party.

7/29/2022 5:40:10 PM

The Coz
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Greens guilty until proven innocent ITT?

7/29/2022 5:59:39 PM

StTexan
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^^maybe he just doesn’t want to engage in a back and forth with you

7/29/2022 10:42:57 PM

qntmfred
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Quote :
"So qntm is just going to ignore the fraud allegations about the Green party. "


consider me baited. I posted in the multi-party thread though.

7/30/2022 2:28:19 PM

bbehe
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Dems lose both House and the Senate
Biden announces he will not run for reelection
DeSantis and Trump continue their passive aggressive shit
Trump picks MTG as a running mate, refuses to debate DeSantis
DeSantis wins the nomination

on the Dem Side
Harris runs, but does poorly.
Newsom wins the nomination

Coin flip on who wins

11/3/2022 12:44:01 PM

marko
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Biden doesn't last the full term of presidency.

Kamala becomes President, the right refuses to recognize. Chaos ensues.

11/3/2022 3:20:51 PM

The Coz
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Feels like he can survive two more years.

11/3/2022 6:57:44 PM

The Coz
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Who all want to declare a candidacy to attempt to shield themselves from prosecution and declare any suggestion of it as a politically-motivated witch hunt, say "YEAH!"?

11/4/2022 7:38:15 PM

StTexan
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Quote :
" What happens if no presidential candidate gets 270 electoral votes?

If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes, the Presidential election leaves the Electoral College process and moves to Congress.

The House of Representatives elects the President from the 3 Presidential candidates who received the most electoral votes. Each State delegation has one vote and it is up to the individual States to determine how to vote. (Since the District of Columbia is not a State, it has no State delegation in the House and cannot vote). A candidate must receive at least 26 votes (a majority of the States) to be elected.

The Senate elects the Vice President from the 2 Vice Presidential candidates with the most electoral votes. Each Senator casts one vote for Vice President. (Since the District of Columbia is has no Senators and is not represented in the vote). A candidate must receive at least 51 votes (a majority of Senators) to be elected.

If the House of Representatives fails to elect a President by Inauguration Day, the Vice-President Elect serves as acting President until the deadlock is resolved in the House."


This would be pretty cool. So say in house, still no majority, but somehow senate is 50/50 after 2022. So say Kamala was tie breaker for her own VP? But in house Trump doesn’t get a majority. She’d be acting pres until that decided, and then after house picks some repub candidate, Kamala would be VP?

I mean just trying to think of the most outlier possibility is crazy. I guess if this were to happen, I’d hope it was split congress. Otherwise house will get repub, and senate would be repub. It is only awesome if one house is repub majority and other house is dem

11/5/2022 1:06:44 AM

The Coz
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Nothing seems to unnerve me quite like these segments. A similar one kicked off this thread, but eventually became restricted, this breaking the embed.

I never considered the specific 2024 ticket mentioned herein, but that's pretty horrifying. I'll be going to the polls anyway tomorrow in deep red South Carolina to vote straight blue for all the good that will do.

11/7/2022 6:25:48 AM

bbehe
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So Trump will supposedly announce next week. DeSantis won his election by 20%

These two fighting will be fun. I wonder if anyone else joins in the fun?

11/9/2022 1:01:00 PM

dmspack
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It remains funny that the GOP was hitching its wagon to 1 term president that lost the popular vote and is wildly unpopular.

11/9/2022 2:00:08 PM

The Coz
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Maybe I'll find it funny a decade or more from now. That's not the first descriptor that comes to mind.

11/9/2022 2:39:25 PM

dmspack
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Fair. Funny wasn’t the right word, i admit.

11/9/2022 2:43:09 PM

The Coz
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Curious, perhaps.

11/9/2022 3:10:48 PM

afripino
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Trump / Desantis ticket would be the logical choice here.

11/9/2022 3:14:47 PM

bbehe
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There's not nearly enough room on the ticket for those two egos.

11/9/2022 3:24:57 PM

UJustWait84
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Quote :
"I'm really interested in seeing what Trump does to DeSantis in terms of running a dirty campaign. He's sung DeSantis's praises for years now. It will be hard to go back on those praises, but, well, Trump."


It took like ~48 hours.

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/11/donald-trump-ron-desantis-truth-social-meltdown

11/11/2022 6:50:26 PM

bbehe
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So if multiple GOP candidates see that Trump looks week, it'll encourage more of them to run, which splits the 'sane' vote and gives Trump a better chance of winning.

11/17/2022 4:57:12 PM

StTexan
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^for primary or general?

I can see desantis/trump along the lines when medvedev had that 4 year stint but vladimir still ran the show. At least more likely than the other way around

I also still think more likely some runaway lib challenges biden and its a 4 way(repub sane, repub crazy, dem sane, dem crazy) and trump wins.

Obviously i want one of the sanes to win

11/17/2022 6:19:08 PM

bbehe
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For the primary.

If Trump appeared unbeatable, I doubt DeSantis would run.

It Trump appeared strong, but beatable, DeSantis may have been the only contender and had people coalesce around him.

If Trump appears weak, which he does, you may have Cheney, DeSantis, Hogan, Cruz, etc all throw their names in the hat. Trump ends up winning the winner take all primaries by getting like 35% of the vote.

11/17/2022 6:58:57 PM

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